Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China reported that in November 2025, the total turnover of the foreign exchange market reached 24.34 trillion RMB (approximately 3.44 trillion USD) [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The customer market turnover was 3.62 trillion RMB (approximately 0.51 trillion USD) [1] - The interbank market turnover was 20.72 trillion RMB (approximately 2.92 trillion USD) [1] - The spot market accumulated a turnover of 8.82 trillion RMB (approximately 1.24 trillion USD) [1] - The derivatives market accumulated a turnover of 15.52 trillion RMB (approximately 2.19 trillion USD) [1] Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - From January to November 2025, the cumulative turnover of the foreign exchange market reached 276.41 trillion RMB (approximately 38.65 trillion USD) [1]

上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜品种微跌，7天和14天品种上涨。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌0.40BP，报1.2580%；7天Shibor上 涨4.80BP，报1.4480%；14天Shibor上涨0.10BP，报1.5960%。 | | | | 2025-12-26 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | t | O/N | 1.2580 | 0.40 | | � | 1W | 1.4480 | 4.80 | | ↑ | 2W | 1.5960 | 0.10 | | f | 1M | 1.5840 | 0.00 | | t | 3M | 1.6000 | 0.00 | | ↑ | 6M | 1.6280 | 0.10 | | 个 | 9M | 1.6400 | 0.00 | | ↑ | 1Y | 1.6500 | 0.00 | 上海银行间同业拆放利率（12月26日） 银行间质押式回购市场方面，隔夜品种下跌，7D、14D品种上涨。具体看，DR001、R001加权平均利率分别下行0.3BP、1.1BP，报 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年11月，中国外汇市场（不含外币对市场，下同）总计成交24.34 万亿元人民币（等值3.44万亿美元）。其中，银行对客户市场成交3.62万亿元人民币（等值0.51万亿美 元），银行间市场成交20.72万亿元人民币（等值2.92万亿美元）；即期市场累计成交8.82万亿元人民币 （等值1.24万亿美元），衍生品市场累计成交15.52万亿元人民币（等值2.19万亿美元）。2025年1-11 月，中国外汇市场累计成交276.41万亿元人民币（等值38.65万亿美元）。 ...

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, the global foreign exchange market is experiencing significant changes, with notable divergence in Asian currency trends [1] - The Chinese yuan is showing a strong rebound, while the Japanese yen and South Korean won are facing severe depreciation against the US dollar, with declines exceeding the rise of the dollar index during the same period [1] - In response to unprecedented currency depreciation pressures, authorities in Japan and South Korea have been actively engaging in a "currency defense war" through verbal warnings and policy adjustments to stabilize the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing significant volatility, with the Chinese yuan showing a strong rebound while the Japanese yen and South Korean won are facing severe depreciation pressures [1] Group 1: Currency Trends - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, with a recent drop to nearly 158 yen per dollar despite a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [2] - The South Korean won has also weakened, reaching a low of 1485 won per dollar, approaching the critical psychological level of 1500 [2] - The depreciation of both currencies is asymmetric, with the yen falling over 8% and the won nearly 7% against the dollar, while the dollar index has only risen by about 1.2% [2] Group 2: Structural Challenges - The weakness of the yen is attributed to multiple factors, including market expectations of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, lack of clear guidance on future hikes, and expansionary fiscal policies leading to concerns over fiscal sustainability [3] - The decline of the won is linked to foreign capital outflows and strong overseas investment demand, with domestic investors selling a net 23 trillion won in local stocks while buying 103 billion USD (approximately 15.28 trillion won) in overseas stocks [3][4] Group 3: Government Interventions - In response to the currency depreciation, South Korean authorities have issued verbal warnings and announced measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market and promote domestic capital market recovery [5] - The South Korean government has been proactive, holding meetings and implementing strategies to address the currency's weakness, including a more flexible approach to foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service [6] - Japanese authorities are also taking action, with the Finance Minister warning that the yen's movements are driven by speculation rather than fundamentals, indicating potential for intervention if the yen experiences extreme volatility [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the demand for cross - year funds increased, leading to a structural differentiation in the capital market. The bond market fluctuated and consolidated, while the convertible bond market's major indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined, and the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 4th quarter (111th in total) regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 was held on December 18. It proposed to leverage the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, maintain ample liquidity, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [3]. - On December 24, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on December 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan after considering the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month [4]. - Multiple departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support its high - quality development [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", with a total of 1679 items, a net increase of 205 items compared to the 2022 edition [5]. - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies on December 24, reducing the social security or tax payment requirements and allowing multi - child families to buy an additional property within the 5th Ring Road [6]. - **International News** - On December 24, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 13 was 1.923 million. Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 24, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices declined. WTI February crude futures fell 0.05% to $58.35 per barrel, Brent February crude futures fell 0.22% to $62.24 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.69% to $4.249 per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On December 24, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 46.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 24, due to the increasing cross - year demand from institutions, the capital market showed a structural differentiation. DR001 dropped 0.69bp to 1.262%, and DR007 dropped 3.05bp to 1.380% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On December 24, affected by multiple rumors such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and bond purchases, the bond market fluctuated and consolidated. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8975% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of 25 Discount Treasury Bond 82, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 81, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 25 is provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other data [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On December 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "22 Vanke 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 18% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Various companies announced events such as debt defaults, debt restructurings, asset sales, and equity transfers. For example, Sunac China completed its comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, and Wanda's credit ratings were downgraded [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On December 24, the three major A - share stock indices rose collectively, and the convertible bond market also increased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 0.62% respectively [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On December 25, Jin 05 Convertible Bond started its online subscription, and on December 24, Tianneng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price [23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On December 24, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.15%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries both narrowed by 2bp [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On December 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends. France's 10 - year government bond yield rose 1bp, Spain's dropped 1bp, and the UK's remained unchanged [24]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on December 24, price change information of various Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds is provided, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of bonds issued by companies such as Longfor Group and Wanda [26].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government has indicated that the excessive weakness of the Korean won is undesirable, leading to a subsequent appreciation of the currency [1] Group 1: Currency Movement - The USD/KRW exchange rate fell by 0.9% to 1467.50 before recovering [1] - The Korean won experienced an increase following the government's statement regarding its currency [1] Group 2: Government Actions - South Korean authorities have held a series of meetings to address currency concerns [1] - The government assures that foreign exchange market participants will soon witness its firm commitment to stabilizing the won [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's foreign exchange market remains stable, with banks continuing to report a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, indicating resilience in foreign trade and foreign investment [1][5][6] - In November 2025, banks settled 14,840 billion RMB and sold 13,732 billion RMB, maintaining a surplus with a narrowing gap [1][2] - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, banks settled 162,781 billion RMB and sold 155,932 billion RMB, achieving a surplus for seven consecutive months [2][4] Group 2 - In November, banks reported foreign-related income of 46,372 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,112 billion RMB, with a cumulative foreign-related income of 511,208 billion RMB and payments of 497,719 billion RMB from January to November [3][4] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached 1.3 trillion USD in November, with a month-on-month increase of 8%, resulting in a surplus of 17.8 billion USD [5][6] - The USD index weakened overall in November, with a decline of 0.29%, while the RMB appreciated against the USD, particularly in late November [6][7][8] Group 3 - The relationship between RMB appreciation and bank settlement and sales creates a positive feedback loop, supporting each other [8] - Experts suggest that the end of the year will see increased settlement activity due to corporate financial settlements, potentially expanding bank customer settlement scales and providing further support for RMB appreciation [9] - The complexity of factors influencing cross-border capital flows and RMB exchange rates is highlighted, indicating that monthly variations in bank settlement data should not be directly equated with capital flows or exchange rate changes [9]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that since November, the international financial market has continued to exhibit high volatility, with the US dollar index generally weakening and major non-US currencies performing strongly [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - China's foreign exchange market has maintained stable operations, with supply and demand remaining basically balanced [1] - In November, the scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales remained stable, with a settlement surplus of 15.7 billion USD, roughly equivalent to October's figures [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, totaled 1.3 trillion USD in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8% [1] - The cross-border capital flow surplus was 17.8 billion USD, which is lower than the average surplus of 24 billion USD observed in September and October [1] Group 3: Trade and Investment Insights - Goods trade remains the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows have remained stable [1] - Recent trends indicate that capital flows under securities investment have become more stable [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the stability of China's foreign exchange market, with balanced supply and demand, and a consistent performance in both bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange [2][1] - In November, banks settled 1.484 trillion RMB and sold 1.3732 trillion RMB, maintaining a settlement surplus of 15.7 billion USD, which is comparable to October's figures [1][2] - Cumulative data for the first eleven months shows banks settled 16.2781 trillion RMB and sold 15.5932 trillion RMB, with total foreign exchange income at 51.1208 trillion RMB and payments at 49.7719 trillion RMB [1][2] Group 2 - The international financial market has shown high volatility since November, with a general weakening of the US dollar index and stronger performance of major non-USD currencies [2] - Non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reported a total cross-border income and expenditure of 1.3 trillion USD in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [2] - The trade balance remains robust, with goods trade being the primary source of net capital inflow, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows remain stable [2]