投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 宏观金融数据日报 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我則一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3882 | -0.81 | IF当月 | 3846 | -0.9 | | 上证50 | 2712 | -0.80 | IH当月 | 2693 | -0.8 | | 中证500 | 5653 | -0.88 | IC当月 | 5562 | -0.9 | | 中证1000 | 5990 | -1.26 | IM当月 | 5872 | -1.3 | | IF成交量 | 110117 | 52.7 | IF持仓量 | 251143 | 7.7 | | IH成交量 | 51804 | 38.4 | IH持仓量 | 85531 | 9.0 | | IC成交量 | 98824 | 27.3 | IC持仓量 | 216012 | 4.0 | | IM成交量 | 233775 | 15.2 | IM持仓量 | 335860 | 1.6 | ...

Core Viewpoint - A new round of deposit rate cuts has begun, with foreign banks following suit in reducing RMB deposit rates [1] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (China) announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates effective June 3, with the interest rate for demand deposits decreasing from 0.10% to 0.05% [1] - For time deposits, the rates for 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year terms have been cut by 15 basis points, now standing at 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively [1] - The 3-year deposit rate has been reduced by 25 basis points, from 1.50% to 1.25% [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in deposit rates among small and medium-sized banks, with some long-term fixed deposit rates falling below 2% [1] - Since April, at least 20 small and medium-sized banks have lowered their deposit rates, with specific examples showing rates for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year deposits dropping to as low as 1.5% and 1.85% [1] - The reduction in deposit rates is attributed to the need for banks to manage their liability costs more effectively and to enhance their ability to support the real economy [1] Group 2 - Higher-yielding products like large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) and notice deposits are also seeing a decline in returns, with average rates for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year large CDs reported at 1.719%, 1.867%, 2.197%, and 2.038% respectively [2] - The attractiveness of large CDs has diminished as their rates fall below those of certain wealth management products and money market funds, leading to a decrease in issuance of medium to long-term large CDs by banks [2] - Small and medium-sized banks have historically set deposit rates slightly higher than large commercial banks to attract savings, but recent trends show a decline in rates across the board [2] Group 3 - The recent interest rate cuts by large banks have prompted some residents to seek higher interest rates by exploring suitable small and medium-sized banks, leading to a potential "savings migration" [3] - The adjustment in deposit rates will significantly reduce the interest income for depositors, prompting a shift of funds towards financial institutions offering higher returns [3] - Small and medium-sized banks are encouraged to enhance their asset management services to meet diverse investment needs, as the banking wealth management market remains stable and healthy [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of Hubei Province reported that as of the end of April 2025, RMB deposits increased by 444.9 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with household deposits rising by 410 billion yuan [1] - As of the end of April 2025, the balance of various loans in Hubei's financial institutions reached 91,294 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.28%, with RMB loans increasing by 4,236 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] - The balance of various deposits in Hubei's financial institutions reached 98,638 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.43%, with RMB deposits increasing by 4,449 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Recent adjustments by major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have led to a reduction in deposit interest rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1%, entering the "0% era" [1] - Experts indicate that the reduction in deposit rates will directly impact the interest earned on savings, potentially decreasing the attractiveness of traditional savings and prompting a shift towards consumption and investment in the long term [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The reduction of the 5 - month LPR by 10bp and domestic banks' cuts in deposit rates may lead to a shift of deposits, potentially lowering yields of other currency and fixed - income products and increasing the activity of equity investment [2] - The IPO rhythm of technology companies is expected to significantly increase, and the increased supply of new stocks may siphon off funds from small - cap stocks, constraining their gains. Meanwhile, long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support the performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the market style likely to continue favoring large - cap over small - cap stocks [2] - The trading volume of the entire A - share market has not improved, and the index is still in a volatile trend. The basis of IH and IF remains flat compared to last week, while the discounts of IC and IM have further widened due to the stock game in small - cap stocks, but the discounts are expected to converge [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Policy Impact - The 5 - month LPR was cut by 10bp, and domestic banks reduced deposit rates, with the one - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1%. This may cause a shift of deposits, affecting the yields of other products and increasing equity investment activity [2] - The press conference mentioned deepening the IPO system reform for innovation and entrepreneurship and supporting the listing of technology companies, which will increase the supply of new stocks and may impact small - cap stocks. Long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support large - cap blue - chip stocks [2] Market Performance - The daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was slightly over one trillion, and the index was in a volatile trend. On Friday, there were large sell - offs in index ETFs, causing a rapid decline in broad - based indices. The weekly lines of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 turned down, and the CSI 500 and 1000 fell by over 1% [2] Basis Situation - The basis of IH and IF remained at the same level as last week, while the discounts of IC and IM widened due to the small - cap stock game. The widening of single - day discounts for a long time may be due to speculative hedging. With the increasing congestion in small - cap stocks, the discounts are expected to converge [2] Basis Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3]

继5月20日国有六大行率先开启第七轮人民币存款挂牌利率下调后，多家股份行也跟进调 整。截至5月22日，招商银行、中信银行、兴业银行等12家股份行已全部完成存款利率的下 调，整存整取挂牌利率最高降幅为25个基点。 有专家表示，存款挂牌利率再度下调，且本次幅度大于LPR降幅、中长期存款利率降幅更 大，有利于进一步缓解存款长期化趋势，稳定银行负债成本，改善银行盈利能力，提升金融 服务实体经济的可持续性。同时，随着存款利率进一步下行，可能再次推动"存款搬家"。 12家股份行跟进下调存款利率 5月20日，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行、宣布对人民 币存款利率进行了调整。与此前相比，六家国有大行银行活期存款利率均下调0.05个百分点 至0.05%，各期限定期存款挂牌利率全线下调，最大降幅25个基点，1年定期利率首次跌破 1%。 近两日，多家股份制银行宣布跟进调整。截至5月22日，招商银行、中信银行、兴业银行等 12家股份行已全部完成存款利率的下调。 与国有大行相似，此次股份行多个期限存款利率均有所调整。其中，人民币活期存款利率统 一下调5个基点至0.05%，中长期限存款下调幅度更大，整存整取挂 ...

继5月20日六家国有大行率先开启新一轮人民币存款挂牌利率调降工作后，各家股份制银行正在纷纷跟进调整。 《金融时报》记者注意到，5月21日，已有招商银行（600036）、平安银行（000001）、中信银行（601998）等9家股份制银行完成了存款利率下调。5月 22日上午，渤海银行、恒丰银行、浙商银行（601916）3家股份行也在官网发布了关于调整人民币存款挂牌利率的公告。 | 存款项目 | 个人存款(年利率 %) | 单位存款(年利率%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 活期在家 | 0.05 | 0. 05 | | 定期存款 | | | | 整存整取 | | | | 三个月 | 0. 70 | 0. 70 | | 半年 | 0.95 | 0. 95 | | 一年 | 1. 15 | 1. 15 | | 二年 | 1. 30 | 1. 30 | | 三年 | 1. 55 | 1. 55 | | 五年 | 1. 60 | 1. 60 | | 零存整取、 整存零取、存本取息 | | | | 一年 | 0. 70 | - | | 三年 | 0.95 | - | | 五年 | 1. 15 | - | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks in response to the LPR adjustment, highlighting alternative investment options for individuals facing lower deposit yields [1][2]. Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Changes - On May 20, the latest LPR was announced, with major state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank leading the way in lowering deposit rates [1]. - The interest rate for demand deposits has been reduced to 0.05%, while the one-year fixed deposit rate has dropped below 1%, now at 0.95% [1]. Alternative Investment Options 1. **Government Bonds** - Advantages include a clear interest rate benefit, with 3-year bonds yielding 1.93% and 5-year bonds at 2.0% [2]. - Compared to large time deposits, 3-year government bonds offer approximately 0.03% higher returns [3]. 2. **Large Time Deposits** - Require a minimum deposit of 200,000, with a 3-year interest rate of 1.9%, which is 0.65% higher than regular fixed deposits [5]. - Offer better liquidity than government bonds, with some allowing transfer [6]. 3. **Low-Risk Bank Wealth Management** - Historical annualized returns range from 1.5% to 2.5% for R1-R2 rated products [8]. - Provide T+0 redemption, making them nearly as liquid as demand deposits [9]. 4. **Money Market Funds** - Historical annualized returns between 1.5% and 2.0%, significantly higher than demand deposits [11]. - Flexible trading options with a low minimum investment of 1 yuan [12]. 5. **Structured Deposits** - Can be purchased through banks, linked to assets like gold or exchange rates, offering potentially high returns [14]. - Returns depend on the performance of the linked assets [15]. 6. **Gold Investments** - Options include physical gold and paper gold/ETF, providing strong inflation hedging in uncertain economic conditions [19]. - Short-term price volatility is high, suggesting a recommendation for medium to long-term holding [20]. 7. **Insurance Wealth Management** - Products like whole life insurance and annuities offer returns of about 2.5% to 3.0% [21]. - These products lock in rates for the long term but may incur losses if cashed out early [23]. Investment Strategies - **Conservative Strategy**: 50% in government bonds, 30% in money market funds, and 20% in large time deposits, suitable for risk-averse investors [24]. - **Balanced Strategy**: 40% in structured deposits, 30% in low-risk wealth management, and 30% in gold, aiming for moderate returns while diversifying risk [25]. - **Aggressive Strategy**: 50% in fund investments, 30% in insurance wealth management, and 20% in gold, targeting long-term growth with acceptance of short-term volatility [26].

Group 1 - Several joint-stock banks have followed state-owned banks in lowering deposit rates, with 10 banks reported to have adjusted their rates as of May 21 [1][2] - The one-year fixed deposit rate at China Merchants Bank has dropped to 0.95%, marking the first time it has fallen below 1%, while other banks have adjusted their one-year rates to 1.15% [2][4] - The adjustment in deposit rates is expected to lead to a decrease in the rates of various deposit products and large-denomination certificates of deposit [4][5] Group 2 - Customers are increasingly abandoning traditional deposits in favor of bank wealth management products and insurance, as current deposit rates are perceived as too low [5][6] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is anticipated to continue, with smaller banks also expected to lower their deposit rates in response to market conditions [7][8] - The decline in deposit rates may enhance market liquidity, as not all types of deposits are sensitive to interest rate changes, allowing banks to maintain stable customer relationships [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in deposit rates by multiple banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, aligns with market expectations and aims to stabilize net interest margins while supporting the real economy [1][5][6]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Nine out of twelve joint-stock banks have announced reductions in deposit rates, with significant cuts in medium to long-term deposit rates, particularly a 25 basis points (BP) decrease for 3-year and 5-year fixed deposits [1][2][3]. - Specific banks like Ping An Bank and Minsheng Bank have adjusted their deposit rates, with Ping An Bank's rates for various terms now at 0.70%, 0.95%, 1.15%, 1.20%, and 1.30%, reflecting reductions of 15 BP for most terms and 25 BP for longer terms [2][3]. - The speed of these adjustments is seen as necessary for banks to manage their liabilities effectively and maintain competitiveness in the current economic environment [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Investors have anticipated the decline in deposit rates, with no significant rush to lock in rates observed at bank branches, indicating a broader acceptance of a long-term downward trend in deposit rates [3][5]. - Experts believe that the synchronized reduction in deposit rates by banks is crucial for reducing financing costs for the real economy and stabilizing net interest margins [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for Banking Sector - The current trend of deposit rate reductions is expected to create more room for lowering financing costs in the future, which is essential for improving banks' profitability and sustainability in serving the real economy [6][7]. - The recent adjustments have seen deposit rate cuts that exceed the reductions in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a strategic move by banks to manage their interest expenses more effectively [6][7].