房地产发展新模式
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房地产行业2026年展望:核心销售趋于均衡,投资开发仍需助力
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 14:39
Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]
首批商业不动产REITs已申报至证监会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 09:49
Core Viewpoint - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has been submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), marking a significant step in expanding the public REITs scope to include commercial real estate, which is crucial for revitalizing existing commercial assets and supporting a new model of real estate development [1] Group 1 - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs includes three funds: Huaan Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, and CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund [1] - The approval status for these funds is currently "materials received" [1] - Expanding the scope of public REITs to include commercial real estate is an important part of enhancing the capital market's service to the real economy [1] Group 2 - The initiative aims to activate existing commercial assets and support the construction of a new model for real estate development [1]
甘肃省住房城乡建设工作会议在兰州召开
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 09:25
转自:每日甘肃网-甘肃日报 全省住房城乡建设工作会议在兰州召开 每日甘肃网兰州1月22日讯(新甘肃·甘肃日报记者杜雪琴)全省住房城乡建设工作会议今天上午在兰州 召开。省委常委、副省长雷思维出席会议并讲话。 记者杜雪琴 会议指出,"十四五"以来,全省住建系统紧紧围绕省委、省政府中心工作,着力补短板、强弱项、提品 质、优功能,城乡基础设施不断完善,人居环境持续改善,行业管理稳步提质,"十四五"目标如期实 现,全省住建事业实现跨越式发展。今年,全省住建系统要围绕中央城市工作会议部署,按照省委省政 府具体安排,大力实施城市更新行动,积极探索房地产发展新模式,加快构建现代化建筑产业体系,奋 力实现"十五五"良好开局。 责任编辑:杨晨雨 会议强调,要锚定"十五五"发展,聚焦现代化人民城市建设、房地产高质量发展、建筑业转型升级集中 发力,抢抓国家战略部署和政策机遇,强化规划引领、项目支撑、机制保障,切实把政策机遇转化为发 展实效。要扛牢扛实稳增长责任,发挥建筑业、房地产业支柱作用,助力全省经济高质量发展。要深入 实施城市更新行动,科学编制更新规划,完善政策支撑体系,加快项目落地实施,推动城市高质量发 展。要维护社会大局稳定 ...
地方两会释放稳楼市信号
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-28 22:49
58安居客研究院院长张波对《证券日报》记者表示,总体来看,各地紧扣民生保障与市场实际,既通过 优化交易流程、盘活闲置资源来稳定市场预期,又以城市更新为切入点,推动房地产行业从增量扩张向 存量提质转型,同时筑牢风险防控底线,促使房地产市场实现止跌回稳。 关注市场与民生 2025年末召开的中央经济工作会议要求,着力稳定房地产市场。多地也将"着力稳定房地产市场"列为 2026年重点工作。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 本报记者 张芗逸 近期,地方两会陆续召开,聚焦2026年重点工作安排。在房地产领域,多地明确表示将着力稳定房地产 市场、推进城市更新,从稳市场和优存量两方面发力。 对居民的住房保障也是多个省份关注的重点。例如,浙江省提出,积极探索房地产发展新模式,优化保 障性住房供给,全年交付保障性租赁住房15万套(间)。 因地制宜推动高质量发展 此外,在建设现代化人民城市的背景下,高质量推进城市更新也被多地列为2026年的重点工作。 北京市提出,大力推动城市更新,推进城市更新条例实施,加强建筑规模指标和财政金融政策保障,推 动职住商服融合的组团式更新。抓好507栋危旧简易 ...
稳市场、优存量 地方两会释放稳楼市信号
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2026-01-28 16:20
近期,地方两会陆续召开,聚焦2026年重点工作安排。在房地产领域,多地明确表示将着力稳定房地产 市场、推进城市更新,从稳市场和优存量两方面发力。 例如,河南省提到,着力稳定房地产市场,收购存量商品房用于保障性住房、安置房、宿舍、人才房 等,加快构建房地产发展新模式。 58安居客研究院院长张波对《证券日报》记者表示,总体来看,各地紧扣民生保障与市场实际,既通过 优化交易流程、盘活闲置资源来稳定市场预期,又以城市更新为切入点,推动房地产行业从增量扩张向 存量提质转型,同时筑牢风险防控底线,促使房地产市场实现止跌回稳。 关注市场与民生 值得注意的是,还有地区明确提出要稳定房地产投资。天津市提出,稳定房地产投资,用好"白名单"制 度和增量政策,有序推动"好房子"建设。 2025年末召开的中央经济工作会议要求,着力稳定房地产市场。多地也将"着力稳定房地产市场"列为 2026年重点工作。 浙江省提出,把城市更新行动和消除安全隐患、房地产高质量发展更好统筹起来,扎实推进好房子建 设,提升城市基础设施建设和治理现代化水平。 对于各地在房地产领域的政策方向,张波建议,结合地方两会部署与市场环境,在大方向一致的基础 上,2026 ...
推进“好房子”建设,落实“以旧换新”
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2026-01-28 11:15
优化住房保障服务。构建房地产发展新模式,因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给,推进"好房子"建设,落实 住房"以旧换新"政策,开展物业服务质量提升行动,稳定房地产市场。深化棚改回迁安置攻坚,城中村、棚 户区改造安置房交付18万套以上。 记者王皇 省政府工作报告提出,构建房地产发展新模式,因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给,推进"好房子"建设,落实 住房"以旧换新"政策。 在构建房地产发展新模式方面,2025年山东出台实施意见,明确了21条改革举措,并开展了存量房大摸底,动 态监测已供土地和在建在售项目。同时,持续调整优化房地产政策,出台了促进住房领域消费等文件,各市 因地制宜完善了购房补贴等措施,住房消费潜力得到有效激发。 2026年,山东仍将充分发挥各市调控自主权,因地制宜调整优化房地产政策,精准组织房交会、群(团)购等 促销活动。 "好房子"不只在城市,在村里,也可以住好房。 2026年山东还将加快现代宜居农房建设,开展"百院千师"下乡服务,打造200个"鲁派民居"新范式村庄。更 好满足市民房屋改善置换需求,2025年12月山东省住房和城乡建设厅、省发展改革委、省财政厅、省自 然资源厅、省税务局等10部门联合印发了 ...
山东推进“好房子”建设,落实住房“以旧换新”政策
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2026-01-27 13:11
齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 王皇 山东省政府工作报告提出,构建房地产发展新模式,因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给,推进"好房 子"建设,落实住房"以旧换新"政策。 在构建房地产发展新模式方面,2025年山东出台实施意见,明确了21条改革举措,并开展了存量房大摸 底,动态监测已供土地和在建在售项目。同时,持续调整优化房地产政策,出台了促进住房领域消费等 文件,各市因地制宜完善了购房补贴等措施,住房消费潜力得到有效激发。2026年,山东仍将充分发挥 各市调控自主权,因地制宜调整优化房地产政策,精准组织房交会、群(团)购等促销活动。 在推进"好房子"建设上,近年来山东积极推进高品质住宅建设走在全国前列。2025年发布了住宅设计、 高品质住宅建设等标准,同时出台了"好房子"支持措施和标准指引,筛选出第三批102个省级高品质住 宅试点项目。在新建商品房供应中,高品质住宅项目越来越多。同时实施房屋品质提升工程,制定出台 行动方案,全链条提升住房标准、设计、材料、建造、运维水平,加强城市更新、城中村改造等项目建 设与房地产有机衔接,支持各县(市、区)打造至少1个"好房子"样板项目,新建保障性住房也将按 照"好房子"标准建设。20 ...
建筑材料行业深度分析:12月投资端降幅扩大,2026年有望开门红
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-27 08:49
[Table_Page] 深度分析|建筑材料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 12 月投资端降幅扩大,2026 年有望开门红 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [Table_Grade] 行业评级 持有 前次评级 持有 报告日期 2026-01-27 识别风险,发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 25 972918116公共联系人2026-01-27 16:41:57 ⚫ 12 月地产/基建投资降幅环比扩大,2026 年有望开门红。12 月固定资 产投资当月同比-15.1%,前值-12.0%;其中制造业/地产/狭义基建/广 义基建投资单月同比分别为-10.5%/-35.8%/-12.2%/-15.9%,增速环比 分别-6.1/-5.5/-2.5/-4.0pct,可能和"推动投资止跌回稳"政策方向既定 的情况下,地方政府会更倾向于把投资节奏集中于 2026 年初有关。 2025 年 1-12 月房地产开发投资/新开工面积/销售面积/竣工面积分别同 比-17.2%/-20.4%/-8.7%/-18.1%,12 月地产相关指标继续低位徘徊, 2026 开年之后二手房成交回暖 ...
房地产行业2025年12月月报:12月新房成交同比降幅收窄,二手房降幅扩大,全年新房成交同比降幅收窄,二手房同比增速由正转负-20260127
Bank of China Securities· 2026-01-27 08:01
Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]
2026年各部委要干哪些民生实事?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-26 17:57
新华社电 2026年,就业、住房、医疗、养老等民生领域将迎来哪些新变化?近期,各部委密集召开工 作会议,进行相关部署安排。"新华视点"记者从中梳理了与你我日常生活密切相关的民生举措。 就业:加强灵活就业、新就业形态人员权益保障 住房:推进现房销售制,规范预售资金监管 2026年房地产市场走向备受关注,着力稳定房地产市场将有哪些重点? 住房城乡建设部部长倪虹表示,将因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给,结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活 利用存量用地,推动收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、安置房、宿舍、人才房等。 倪虹表示,将加快构建房地产发展新模式,在商品房销售上,推进现房销售制,实现"所见即所得",从 根本上防范交付风险。继续实行预售的,规范预售资金监管,切实维护购房人合法权益。 同时,将深化住房公积金制度改革。实施物业服务质量提升行动,探索社区党组织领导下的居委会、业 委会、物业服务企业协调运行新模式,探索"物业服务+生活服务"模式,推动"物业服务进家庭"。 生育:力争今年实现生娃基本不花钱 此前召开的全国医疗保障工作会议明确,将根据医保基金可承受能力,合理提升产前检查医疗费用保障 水平,力争2026年全国基本实现政策范 ...