Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the real estate sector, including New World Development, China Resources Land, and Yuexiu Property, among others [4][50]. Core Insights - The overall real estate market in August 2025 continued to experience a seasonal downturn, with expectations for improvement in September, traditionally a strong sales month [5][15]. - The report highlights that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are performing better in terms of sales, with a market share increase to 74.7% among the top 50 developers [5][14]. - Various policies aimed at stimulating market activity, such as expanding the use of housing provident funds and easing purchase restrictions, are expected to enhance market vitality [5][15]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in market activity, particularly in core first-tier cities, due to favorable policy changes [5][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In August 2025, the total sales of the top 100 developers decreased by 4% month-on-month to RMB 220.2 billion, with a total sales area of approximately 11.59 million square meters, down 7.8% [13][19]. - Among the 20 tracked listed developers, sales increased by 14.2% month-on-month, driven by strong performances from companies like Greentown China and China Overseas Land [14][19]. Sales Performance - The report indicates that the average sales price and sales area for the 20 developers increased by 12.0% and 7.8% respectively [14]. - The top 10 developers in sales for August included nine state-owned enterprises, with Poly Developments leading the rankings [14][19]. Policy Review - Central policies in August 2025 focused on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting quality housing development [37]. - Over 26 cities implemented market stabilization policies, including measures related to housing provident funds and various purchase subsidies [39]. Company Updates - China Resources Land reported a net profit of RMB 11.88 billion for the first half of 2025, with a new land reserve of 1.48 million square meters [41]. - Sunac China announced a debt restructuring plan involving USD 9.552 billion, aiming to stabilize its financial structure [44]. - Poly Developments reported a total contract sales amount of RMB 181.2 billion for the first eight months of 2025, a decrease of 18% year-on-year [19][41].

Group 1 - The real estate market in August remains in a traditional off-season, with a slight recovery in second-hand housing transaction volumes in Beijing and Shanghai due to relaxed purchase restrictions, while other core cities continue to see declines in transaction volumes, maintaining the "price for volume" phenomenon [1][65] - On the policy front, the State Council reiterated the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the real estate market during its ninth plenary meeting on August 18, emphasizing the need to "release improvement demand through multiple channels" [1][65] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a policy on August 22 to support eligible real estate developers in applying for a refund of 60% of the newly added tax credits compared to the end of March 2019, alleviating financial pressure on real estate companies [1] Group 2 - Local governments in cities like Beijing and Shanghai have optimized purchase restrictions, allowing eligible buyers to purchase unlimited properties outside the city center, while also adjusting loan policies to support home purchases [2] - In August, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.76% month-on-month and 7.34% year-on-year, with the top ten cities experiencing a month-on-month decline of 0.59% and a year-on-year decline of 4.90% [6] - The transaction volume in Beijing increased by 4.3% month-on-month in August, but still saw a year-on-year decline of 7.2%, with prices down 0.53% month-on-month and 4.58% year-on-year [9] Group 3 - In Shanghai, the second-hand housing market showed signs of recovery with a 4.0% month-on-month increase in transaction volume and a 10.6% year-on-year increase, although prices fell by 0.49% month-on-month and 4.16% year-on-year [15] - Guangzhou's second-hand housing prices fell by 0.80% month-on-month and 5.73% year-on-year, with high inventory levels impacting transaction cycles [21] - In Shenzhen, the transaction volume of second-hand homes decreased by 10.3% month-on-month in August, but still showed a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [27] Group 4 - The second-hand housing market in Chengdu saw a 13.4% month-on-month decline in transaction volume, while prices fell by 0.19% month-on-month and 0.98% year-on-year, with the decline in prices showing signs of narrowing [49] - In Wuhan, the transaction volume decreased by 8.8% month-on-month, but increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with prices down 1.20% month-on-month and 9.67% year-on-year [45] - The overall market trend indicates that September may see a recovery in transaction volumes due to policy adjustments and the traditional peak season for real estate [65]

Core Insights - The performance of major state-owned real estate companies in the first half of 2025 shows significant differentiation, with China Resources Land emerging as the "profit king" while Poly Developments experiences a decline in revenue for the first time in five years [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - China Resources Land achieved a revenue of 949.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.96%, and a net profit of 118.8 billion yuan, up 15.87% [2][5] - Poly Developments reported a revenue of 1168.57 billion yuan, down 16.08% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.46% [2][3] - China Overseas Development's revenue was 832.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.27%, with a net profit of 85.99 billion yuan, down 16.63% [2][3] Business Segment Performance - China Resources Land's growth is attributed to its operational real estate business, which generated 121.1 billion yuan in revenue, a 5.5% increase [5][6] - In contrast, China Overseas and Poly Developments lag in this segment, with China Overseas earning 35.4 billion yuan and Poly Developments only 25.4 billion yuan from operational real estate [6][7] Land Acquisition Trends - All three companies increased their land acquisition efforts, focusing on first-tier cities, with Poly Developments leading with 509 billion yuan in land purchases [8][9] - China Overseas acquired land worth 403.7 billion yuan, while China Resources Land's acquisitions totaled 447.3 billion yuan [9] Market Outlook and Strategy - The companies are optimistic about the market's stabilization, with a focus on core first and second-tier cities to enhance their development capabilities [9][10] - The emphasis on operational real estate as a secondary revenue source is seen as a strategic move to balance traditional development income [4][10]

行 业 研 究 投资评级：看好（维持） 2025 年 09 月 07 日 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积环比增加，上海购房 政策放松—行业周报》-2025.8.31 《新房成交面积环比增加，巩固房地 产市场止跌回稳态势—行业周报》 -2025.8.24 《新房成交面积环比增加，完善房地 产 金 融 基 础 性 制 度 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.17 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 房地产 沪深300 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积同环比下降，深圳购房政策放松 本周我们跟踪的 68 城新房成交同环比下降，20 城二手房成交面积同比增长，环 比下 ...

Group 1 - The overall real estate market faces challenges, but companies are responding with various measures to maintain a robust balance sheet [1] - The high housing prices and excessive real estate supply have fundamentally changed, providing a basis for market stabilization [1][4] - Commercial real estate, particularly shopping centers, is in an upward revaluation cycle, which is not synchronized with the residential development cycle [1] Group 2 - Developers are actively addressing current difficulties through four main strategies: rapid and effective inventory turnover, reducing non-performing assets, enhancing asset management capabilities, and cutting costs [2] - As of mid-2025, sample companies are expected to see a 14% decline in development business revenue compared to the peak in mid-2023, while operating revenue is projected to increase by 18% [2] - Companies are also expected to reduce sales expenses by 10.7% and management expenses by 33.7% by mid-2025, alongside a 10.1% reduction in employee numbers compared to the peak in 2021 [2] Group 3 - Developers continue to face pressures related to inventory, profitability, and cash flow, with housing prices in 70 major cities still in a downward trend [3] - The large volume of unsold properties poses risks of asset depreciation and slower turnover, leading to reduced operating cash flow [3] - The profitability of companies remains under pressure due to the overall decline in housing prices [3] Group 4 - The situation of excessively high housing prices and oversupply has fundamentally changed, with rental yields approaching 3% in some areas [4] - Leading companies have reduced new construction to below 30% of peak levels, and the area under construction has decreased to below 50% of peak levels [4] - The oversupply in the market is primarily characterized by an excess of existing homes, driven by market expectations [4] Group 5 - Three external factors may help reverse the downward trend in housing prices: potential policy optimization, wealth effects from the capital market, and continuous improvement in new productive forces and residents' income levels [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of the "Golden September and Silver October" housing subsidy initiative in Yueyang, aimed at stimulating the local real estate market through various financial incentives and policy adjustments [1][3][4]. Group 1: Housing Subsidy Policies - From September 1 to November 15, residents in Yueyang's main urban area can enjoy a series of housing benefits, including cash subsidies and relaxed conditions for withdrawing housing provident funds [1][3]. - Homebuyers in Yueyang can receive a subsidy of 2% of the total price (up to 20,000 yuan) if they pay the deed tax within two months [3]. - Families with two or more children can benefit from increased loan limits and additional cash rewards for purchasing new homes [4]. Group 2: Talent and Loan Policies - The housing subsidy for talent includes 200,000 yuan for doctoral graduates and high-level professionals, and 150,000 yuan for senior technicians [4]. - Starting May 18, 2024, the interest rate for first-time homebuyers' provident fund loans will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set at 2.35% for loans of five years or less and 2.85% for loans over five years [4]. - The policy also allows for the withdrawal of housing provident funds without restrictions based on household registration, enabling family members to access funds [5]. Group 3: National Real Estate Market Context - Since the central government's call for "strong measures" to stabilize the real estate market, over 20 cities have implemented policies to support housing market recovery [6][7]. - The timing of these local policies coincides with the traditional peak sales season, which is expected to enhance sales and improve market conditions [1][7].

Core Insights - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities in China reached 16,910 yuan per square meter in August, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.20% and a year-on-year increase of 2.73% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in August was 13,481 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.34% [1] - The average rental price in 50 cities was 34.88 yuan per square meter per month, with a month-on-month decline of 0.15% and a year-on-year decline of 3.76% [1] Market Trends - The "stop decline and stabilize" policy goal was reiterated by the State Council, boosting market confidence [1][11] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have optimized housing policies, easing restrictions on the number of properties that eligible buyers can purchase [10][11] - The market is entering the traditional peak season for real estate sales, with expectations for increased activity in core cities [11] Price Movements - In August, first-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase in new residential prices of 0.48%, while second-tier cities increased by 0.21%. In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decrease of 0.25% [6] - Second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.55%, while second-tier and third/fourth-tier cities saw declines of 0.85% and 0.78%, respectively [6] Policy Developments - The State Council emphasized the need for strong measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, focusing on urban renewal and improving housing quality [10][11] - Local governments are implementing various supportive measures, including optimizing public housing loan policies and issuing special bonds to recover idle land [10][11] Project Highlights - Several new residential projects have been launched in major cities, with notable sales performance indicating strong demand [9][12] - The focus on high-quality housing development continues, with guidelines being issued in various regions to promote the construction of quality residential projects [12]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China stated that the real estate market is stabilizing, with a 15.5 percentage point reduction in the year-on-year decline of national commercial housing sales area compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The price index for new and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities has shown a continuous narrowing of the year-on-year decline since October last year, indicating a trend of stabilization in the real estate market [1] - Despite the positive outlook, international rating agencies remain pessimistic, with Fitch recently downgrading Vanke's rating to CCC-, reflecting an overly negative view of the industry [1] Group 2 - Vanke achieved revenue of 105.3 billion and sales income of nearly 70 billion in the first half of the year, with a high-quality delivery of over 45,000 units and a sales collection rate exceeding 100% [2] - The company has actively revitalized its inventory, generating nearly 60 billion in cash flow from inventory management, and has completed a total of 800 billion in available sales value since the beginning of 2023 [2] - Vanke has received strong support from major shareholders, successfully repaying 24.39 billion in public debt and having no public debt due before 2027 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and anticipates supportive policies to be introduced [3] - The central government has consistently highlighted the need to stabilize both the real estate and stock markets since September 2024, indicating a focus on maintaining social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][46] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.6%, the ChiNext Index by 5.9%, and the CSI 300 Index by 4.2% during the week, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 0.5% [5][8] - Notable stock performances included ST Zhongdi (+17.2%), Shen Shen Fang A (+14.4%), and Heimu Dan (+13.3%) among the top gainers, while Quzhou Development (-11.7%) and *ST Nan Zhi (-11.1%) were among the biggest losers [5][8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 New Home Transactions - In the week of August 16-22, new home transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.68 million square meters, a 19.5% increase from the previous week but a 22.4% decrease year-on-year [13] - For August up to the week of August 22, new home transactions totaled 4.75 million square meters, reflecting a 4.0% decrease month-on-month and a 19.6% decrease year-on-year [19] 2.2 Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 21 key cities reached 1.91 million square meters, a 7.2% increase from the previous week and an 8.0% increase year-on-year [29] - For August up to the week of August 22, second-hand home transactions totaled 5.73 million square meters, a 3.8% decrease month-on-month but a 0.8% increase year-on-year [33] 3. Industry News - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal [43] - The People's Bank of China held a meeting to strengthen macro-prudential management of real estate finance [43] - Various cities are implementing supportive measures, such as lowering down payment ratios and increasing loan limits for homebuyers [43] 4. Company Announcements - Green Town China reported a net profit of 210 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 89.7% year-on-year [46] - Vanke A reported a net loss of 11.95 billion yuan for the same period, a 21.3% decrease year-on-year [46] - China Overseas Development issued bonds totaling 8 billion yuan at a 1.6% interest rate for three years [46]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shown a pessimistic trend in recent months, with market confidence declining again after a brief recovery period. The expectation is that housing prices will continue to fall, despite previous government measures aimed at stabilizing the market [4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since April, with both transaction volume and sales revenue declining, and the extent of price drops widening. This adjustment has lasted for four months, raising concerns about the market's stability [5]. - The government had previously implemented significant stimulus measures to promote market recovery, which initially had a positive effect, but the situation has deteriorated again, impacting market confidence [4]. Group 2: Government Response - The current year is critical for achieving stabilization in the real estate market, with the government emphasizing the need for effective measures to halt the decline. Recent statements from high-level officials indicate a commitment to reinforcing the market's stabilization efforts [5]. - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have introduced new policies to support the real estate market, with expectations that similar measures will soon follow in Shenzhen and Guangzhou. However, there are concerns about the effectiveness of these policies in reversing the current downward trend [5].