Group 1: Report Summary Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. However, after the holiday, as the downstream restocking pace slows, there is a risk of price decline. The market is affected by factors such as new production line launches, downstream psychological price expectations, and inventory levels [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term supply and demand situation is acceptable, but there is uncertainty in the future. The market is influenced by factors like the upcoming dry season in the southwest, production increase expectations in Xinjiang, and the "production - limiting and sales - controlling" plan in the polysilicon industry [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals are weak. Despite rumors of production cuts, companies have not yet taken action, leading to inventory accumulation. The market is also affected by policy expectations and downstream demand weakening [8]. Trading Strategies - **Carbonate Lithium**: Upstream companies should seize opportunities to sell and hedge when prices rise, while downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges. The support level for the main contract is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance level is 75,000 - 76,000 yuan [5][14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The support interval is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, and the resistance interval is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan. In the face of increased overseas risks and macro - factor disturbances, investors should manage risks and trade with light positions [7][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Consider short - selling on rebounds. The support interval for the main contract is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, and the resistance interval is 52,000 - 53,000 yuan [8]. Group 2: First Part - Spot Prices 1. Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium 11**: The market logic is strong supply and demand with a weakening atmosphere. The support is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, the pressure is 75,000 - 76,000 yuan, the market is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Upstream companies should sell and hedge when prices rise, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges [14]. - **Industrial Silicon 11**: Short - term supply and demand are acceptable, but there is high uncertainty in the future. The support is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, the pressure is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Adopt an interval trading strategy [14]. - **Polysilicon 11**: The weakening trend at the terminal may gradually spread upstream. The support is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, the pressure is 52,000 - 53,000 yuan, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Price Changes - **Carbonate Lithium**: The closing price is 72,280 yuan, with a decline of 0.63%. The trading volume is 282,178, the open interest is 207,463, with a decrease of 14,456 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 36,718 [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price is 8,805 yuan, with an increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 241,553, the open interest is 165,722, with a decrease of 1,313 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 50,854 [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price is 48,740 yuan, with a decline of 2.35%. The trading volume is 246,976, the open interest is 87,665, with a decrease of 3,344 compared to the previous period, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7,900 [15]. Group 3: Second Part - Fundamental Situation 1. Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - The report includes figures on monthly production capacity, device operating rate, monthly output, and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, as well as inventory in smelters and downstream [22][24]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the production capacity, device operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, monthly operating rate of SMM ternary materials, and monthly output of lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented [26][28]. 2. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - Figures on the sample operating rate of main production areas, weekly output of main production areas, weekly inventory of delivery warehouses in various regions, and weekly inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang and Sichuan are provided [32][34]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the monthly output of China's organic silicon DMC and the operating rate of aluminum alloy are shown [36]. 3. Polysilicon Fundamental Data (1) Production and Inventory - Figures on the total inventory and monthly output of polysilicon in China are included [40][41]. (2) Downstream Situation - Figures on the monthly output of silicon wafers and the monthly output of photovoltaic - Chinese components are presented [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][5][29]. Core Views - The report highlights the significant growth in the public utility and environmental sectors, with the public utility index rising by 3.45% and the environmental index by 1.49% during the week [1][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of green methanol production, which significantly reduces carbon emissions throughout its lifecycle, and outlines the two main production routes: biological methanol and electro-methanol [2][15]. - The report suggests that coal and electricity prices are expected to decline simultaneously, allowing thermal power profitability to remain reasonable, and recommends major thermal power companies such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, while the public utility index rose by 3.45% and the environmental index by 1.49%, with respective relative returns of 3.97% and 2.00% [1][31]. - Within the power sector, thermal power increased by 7.83%, hydropower by 2.30%, and renewable energy generation by 3.72% [1][31]. Important Events - As of October 12, 2025, multiple provinces have released documents related to the "136 Document" and initiated or completed competitive pricing for new energy incremental projects [1][23]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends several companies across different sectors: - For thermal power: Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][29]. - For renewable energy: Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and regional offshore wind companies [3][29]. - For nuclear power: China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [3][29]. - For hydropower: Yangtze Power [3][29]. - For gas: Jiufeng Energy [3][29]. - For environmental services: China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [3][30]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, all rated as "Outperform" [5][8]: - Huadian International (Code: 600027.SH) - Longyuan Power (Code: 001289.SZ) - China Nuclear Power (Code: 601985.SH) - Yangtze Power (Code: 600900.SH) - Jiufeng Energy (Code: 605090.SH) Special Research - The report discusses the production routes for green methanol, emphasizing the need for renewable hydrogen and carbon sources [2][15]. - It also details the competitive pricing results for new energy projects across various provinces, highlighting specific prices and execution periods [23][26].

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年10月10日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格73453元/吨，环比上一工 作日上涨7元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.29-7.42万元/吨，均价7.355万元 /吨，与上一工作日持平；工业级碳酸锂7.07-7.19万元/吨，均价7. 13万元/吨，与上一工作日持平。 据SMM，供应方面，节日当周碳酸锂产量20635吨，较节前一周增 加119 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of Northern Rare Earth and Baosteel is attributed to their solid fundamentals, reasonable valuations, and favorable industry trends, particularly in the renewable energy sector [1][4]. Valuation Screening - Both Northern Rare Earth and Baosteel have been trading at reasonable price-to-earnings ratios, indicating that their stock prices are not overvalued and have a sufficient safety margin [3]. - The analogy of buying fresh fruit at a lower price compared to others illustrates that these stocks are positioned for a potential value recovery [3]. Fundamental Screening - Northern Rare Earth is a leading player in the rare earth industry, holding critical resources that are in constant demand from downstream sectors like electric vehicles and wind power [3]. - Baosteel not only has a strong steel business but also possesses rare earth mines, creating a deep connection with Northern Rare Earth, which provides stability and confidence in its operations [3]. Windfall Screening - The recent uptick in the renewable energy industry, including rising sales of electric vehicles and increased installations in wind and solar power, has created a favorable environment for rare earth materials, which are essential for these technologies [4]. - Government policies increasingly emphasize the strategic importance of rare earth resources, further enhancing the growth prospects for both companies [4]. Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to avoid chasing stocks after a single-day surge and instead wait for a price correction to reassess based on the three screening criteria [4]. - Existing shareholders should focus on long-term signals such as downstream demand and company performance, rather than short-term price fluctuations [4].

我国新能源产业链世界第一。 中国能源研究会副秘书长兼新闻发言人王凡在10日举办的新闻发布会上介绍，"十四五"期间，我国构建 起全球最大、发展最快的可再生能源体系，可再生能源发电装机占比由40%提升至60%左右。出口的风 电光伏产品遍布全球，累计为其他国家减少碳排放约41亿吨，为全球低碳转型作出了重大贡献。在新能 源科技领域，我国拥有了全球4成以上的新能源专利，新型储能规模跃居世界第一，建成了白鹤滩水电 站、自主三代核电"华龙一号""国和一号"等多个"全球最大""全球首座"工程，并相继投运。此外，新能 源汽车、锂电池和光伏产品"新三样"2024年出口额突破万亿元大关。智能微电网、虚拟电厂、车网互动 规模化应用等能源领域新模式、新业态、新赛道持续涌现，带动新能源产业链世界第一。 自从举办2023中国（宜昌）绿色能源发展大会之后，宜昌主导产业的含"绿"量、含"金"量快速提升。宜 昌市政府有关负责人介绍，近两年来，宜昌发力清洁能源产业，3个抽水蓄能项目开工建设，总装机400 万千瓦。截至今年6月底，全市发电装机总量3224万千瓦，其中风、光、水电等清洁能源装机占比94% 以上。页岩气探明储量超7.42万亿立方米，正加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to see a production increase of 3% to 9% month-on-month and 21% to 50% year-on-year by October 2025, driven by strong demand from the automotive market and energy storage needs [1] Industry Summary - The battery, anode, and electrolyte sectors are projected to experience year-on-year growth exceeding 40%, primarily due to the peak season in the automotive market and rising energy storage demand [1] - The industry inventory cycle has entered a replenishment phase, with prices for materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increasing by 20% month-on-month, alongside rises in cell and electrolyte prices [1] - In the energy storage sector, domestic installations in August showed a year-on-year growth of 58% and a month-on-month growth of 63%, while the U.S. market experienced a 46% year-on-year growth despite short-term fluctuations due to ITC policy adjustments [1] - Solid-state battery technology is entering a critical industrialization window, with demonstration vehicle deployment expected in 2026-2027, and composite electrolytes anticipated to achieve mass production by Q4 2025 [1] - The market focus on the lithium battery sector is increasing, and under improved supply-demand dynamics, profitability in certain segments may see recovery [1] Company Summary - The Guotai Junan New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which has a maximum fluctuation of 20% [1] - This index selects listed companies involved in clean energy production, storage, and application, emphasizing firms with technological innovation capabilities and high growth potential [1] - The industry allocation primarily focuses on solar energy, wind energy, electric vehicles, and related equipment manufacturing, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the new energy and related supply chain [1]

Core Points - The article highlights China's historic election as an observer state in the Andean Community, marking the first time an Asian country has received this position, indicating a shift in influence in Latin America away from the United States [1][9] - The article discusses the implications of U.S. tariff increases on Latin American imports starting in 2025, which have strained economic cooperation and led to a reevaluation of partnerships with the U.S. [1][10] Group 1: U.S. Influence and Tariff Implications - The U.S. has announced a sudden increase in tariffs on imports from Latin America, affecting key resources such as copper and lithium, which has disrupted long-standing economic cooperation [1][3] - Latin American countries are facing challenges due to reduced U.S. aid and increased tariffs, leading to a search for new partnerships [1][3] Group 2: China's Strategic Engagement - China's cooperation with Latin America has been built over years, starting from resource exchanges to deeper collaborative efforts, positioning China as a reliable partner [3][4] - The shift in cooperation post-2019 has seen Latin American countries seeking to upgrade their industries with Chinese technology, moving beyond mere resource exports [4][6] Group 3: Economic and Political Shifts - The election of China as an observer in the Andean Community reflects a significant change in global trade dynamics, particularly in the critical sectors of electric vehicles and AI, where lithium and copper are essential [6][9] - Latin American countries are gaining more market opportunities and influence in trade rule-making through their partnership with China, especially in the digital economy [7][10] Group 4: Future Cooperation and Trends - The article suggests that future cooperation between China and the Andean Community will deepen, particularly in digital economy, green development, and infrastructure [11] - The evolving landscape indicates a trend towards fair, mutually beneficial cooperation, contrasting with U.S. unilateralism, as Latin American countries assert their right to choose partners [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose and then fell, with LME copper approaching its historical high. The US government shutdown and delayed economic data have led to differences among Fed officials on whether to cut interest rates in October. LME, Comex, and domestic social copper inventories have increased, and downstream procurement is cautious at high prices. The impact of the Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia on global copper supply in Q4 2025 and 2026 is a fact, which is expected to support copper prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the price differences between Comex and LME copper and between domestic and foreign markets [1]. - **Aluminum**: After the holiday, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Alumina market news is scarce, and it continues to be in an oversupply situation. After the short - term price increase of electrolytic aluminum, the market has pinned its hopes on the "Silver October" for consumption. Pay attention to the post - holiday inventory - consumption trend, and beware of price corrections if the destocking is less than expected [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia has introduced a new policy on mining production quotas. Nickel ore operations are stable, but policy risks need to be watched. Stainless steel is under pressure, and the new energy industry chain is expected to see increased demand. Shanghai nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors and inventory increases have affected copper prices. The mine accident impact on supply is expected to support prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and monitor price differences [1]. - **Aluminum**: Post - holiday prices are slightly stronger. Alumina is in surplus, and electrolytic aluminum consumption hopes are on "Silver October". Monitor inventory - consumption trends [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices are affected by macro and policy factors. Nickel ore operations are stable, but policy risks exist. Stainless steel is under pressure, and new energy demand is expected to increase. Prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On October 9, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 85,720 yuan/ton, up 2,525 yuan from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 3,925 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead was 16,910 yuan/ton on October 9, up 30 yuan from September 30. LME inventory increased by 1,375 tons, and上期所 inventory decreased by 7,315 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On October 9, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 4,825 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On October 9, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 124,825 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan from September 30. LME inventory increased by 5,580 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 42 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On October 9, the main settlement price was 22,200 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from September 30. LME inventory remained unchanged, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.78 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On October 9, the main settlement price was 285,070 yuan/ton, up 2.3% from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 115 tons, and上期所 inventory decreased by 130 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [49][50].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 3900-point mark, with a notable increase in trading activity, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1][3] - The three major indices are all in the green, with the Shanghai Composite up by 0.3%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index slightly up by 0.06% [3] Sector Performance - Semiconductor and storage chip sectors are particularly strong, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor rising over 15% and ZhiChun Technology hitting the daily limit [3] - The storage chip sector is also performing well, with Jiangbolong increasing by over 17%, and other companies like Baiwei Storage and Xiangnong Chip Innovation nearing 10% gains [3] - The energy metals sector is benefiting from the recovery of the new energy industry chain, with companies like Boqian New Materials hitting the daily limit and others like Yongxing Materials and Huayou Cobalt rising nearly 7% [3] Market Dynamics - There is a rotation of funds from large financial sectors, which are experiencing declines, to more growth-oriented sectors like technology and new energy, indicating a normal market rotation rather than a downturn [4] - The increase in trading volume, reaching 136.98 billion, suggests that market sentiment is gradually warming, with over 2900 stocks rising, reflecting broad market participation [3][4] - The focus on technology (semiconductors and storage) and new energy industry chains aligns with long-term investment logic, emphasizing the importance of following industry trends rather than chasing short-term speculative opportunities [4]

Core Insights - The A-share new energy sector experienced a strong rally on September 29, with lithium battery-themed ETFs leading the gains among stock ETFs, reflecting a significant market interest in this segment [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The largest battery ETF saw an intraday increase of over 4%, reaching a nearly three-year high, and closed with a gain of 4.87%, with a trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [1][3] - Multiple new energy-related ETFs, including those focused on energy storage and electric vehicles, also recorded gains of over 4% on the same day, indicating a broad-based rally in the new energy sector [2][3] - The electric equipment industry index outperformed all other sectors with a nearly 20% increase in September, significantly ahead of the second-placed electronics sector by nearly 10 percentage points [5] Group 2: Industry Drivers - The recent surge in the new energy sector is attributed to a combination of policy incentives and technological breakthroughs, with a notable focus on solid-state battery advancements [2][7][8] - The global push for carbon neutrality and the increasing international demand for Chinese new energy technologies are creating substantial growth opportunities for the industry [7][8] - Fund performance in the new energy sector has been strong, with several battery-themed index funds showing net value increases exceeding 30% in September, outperforming their peers [6] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the new energy sector will continue to evolve positively, with expectations of significant changes by 2026, particularly for leading companies with technological and scale advantages [9] - The market is shifting towards growth-oriented investments, moving away from a focus solely on certainty, indicating a potential for further investment opportunities in high-growth sectors [9] - For ordinary investors, a long-term holding strategy in broad-based ETFs is recommended, unless there is a strong conviction in specific sectors offering excess returns [9]