2026 年 1 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：美豆小幅收涨，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货产区稳定、销区补涨，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4375 +24（+0.55%） | 4382 +7（+0.16%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2782 +16（+0.58%） | 2793 +16（+0.58%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1074.75 +7.25（+0.68%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 297.6 +3.8（+1.29%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） 持 | | | 山东 （元/吨） 平； | 3120～3140， 较昨持平； 现货M2605+440， 平； 3月M2605+320/+350/+360/+370/+380/+390； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: The overall supply and demand of PX and PTA in Q1 are weaker than expected, with limited self - driving force before the Spring Festival. However, due to the expected tight supply - demand in Q2, the low - price support for PX is strong. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level with limited drive, with a short - term range of 7200 - 7600 and a long - term bullish view [1]. - **PTA**: Although the market is optimistic about the Q2 supply - demand, in the short term, with high valuation and weak reality, the drive is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the range of 5200 - 5500, and TA5 - 9 is recommended for low - position positive hedging in the medium term [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. In the near term, there is pressure on inventory accumulation, while in Q2, the supply is expected to shrink, and it is possible to reduce inventory. Strategies include EG5 - 9 positive hedging at low prices and holding the seller of put option EG2605 - P - 3800 [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains high, and demand decreases near the Spring Festival. The price of the spot is relatively firm. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the PF processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, and it is advisable to shrink the spread when it is high [1]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: With the implementation of maintenance plans, the domestic supply is expected to decline significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. PR2603 is recommended to pay attention to the support around 6200, and the processing fee on the main PR contract is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [1]. LPG Industry - The report does not provide a clear overall view, but shows price increases in some LPG futures contracts and changes in inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - The supply is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening. The demand for some export - oriented semi - steel tire enterprises is sufficient, but the domestic sales are slow. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still significant pressure at the 16500 level [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply is still high, and the demand is mainly for fulfilling orders. The inventory decreased last week but is still high year - on - year. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Glass**: The spot price is stable, and the market transaction is average. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price rebounded slightly, but the spot price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remains, with high inventory and weak demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the impact of downstream procurement and price fluctuations [8]. - **PVC**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The supply - demand has not improved, with supply exceeding demand and inventory accumulation pressure. The cost support has increased, and the policy support is insufficient. The disk is expected to fluctuate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the 4820 - 5000 range [8]. Urea Industry - The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price increased. The supply is sufficient, and the industrial demand is average, while the agricultural demand is warming up. The urea factory's pre - Spring Festival order - receiving pressure is not significant. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival, and the main contract is recommended to focus on the 1760 - 1820 range [9]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices continued to rise sharply. Affected by the winter storm in the US, production decreased, EIA data showed a decline in commercial inventory and a small increase in refined oil inventory. The production of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan recovered slowly, and the US had a tough stance on Iran. Short - term positive factors still exist, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [11]. Methanol Industry - The futures price fluctuated in a narrow range at a high level, and the spot was purchased on demand. The supply and demand in the methanol market are both weak. The inventory in the inland area decreased, but high production and pre - Spring Festival inventory clearance limited the rebound. The port inventory increased slightly, and the MTO demand was weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and geopolitical risks [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded, but the port inventory increased unexpectedly. With the improvement of disproportionation profit, some devices are expected to restart, and the import is expected to increase. The price is expected to face pressure at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. - **Styrene**: The load remains high under high profit, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken. The port inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to face pressure at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP are strong, driven by capital and geopolitical tensions. The static fundamentals show a decrease in supply and demand and inventory reduction, with low upstream inventory and strong price - holding intention. For PP, the supply pressure is relieved by maintenance; for PE, the pressure on standard products increases, and the downstream demand enters the off - season. Attention should be paid to spot transactions, inventory, and macro - sentiment [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Products**: POY150/48 price increased by 1.2%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. The cash - flow of some products changed, such as POY150/48 cash - flow decreased by 9.5% [1]. - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (March) increased by 1.23%, WTI crude (March) increased by 1.31%, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, etc. [1]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6%, PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 0.8%, PX - naphtha spread decreased by 6.1%, etc. [1]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA05 - TA09 spread decreased by 62.5%, PTA spot processing fee increased by 4.8%, etc. [1]. - **MEG - related**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.2%, EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 5.7%, MEG port inventory increased by 7.9%, etc. [1]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 increased, and the spreads such as PG03 - 04 and PG03 - 05 changed [2]. - **LPG Outer - market Prices**: FEI swap M1 and M2 contracts, CP swap M1 and M2 contracts all decreased [2]. - **LPG Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 5.23%, LPG port inventory decreased by 1.53%, LPG port storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.36% [2]. - **LPG Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The main refinery operating rate increased by 1.99%, the PDH operating rate decreased by 14.81%, etc. [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased by 0.63%, the basis decreased by 15.49%, the price of Thai standard mixed glue increased by 0.66%, etc. [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.35%, 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.40%, 5 - 9 spread increased by 23.08% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in November decreased by 9.39%, the production of Indonesia decreased by 2.58%, the production of China increased by 20.88%, etc. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed, and the tire production and export volume in December increased [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07%, the futures inventory of natural rubber in SHFE decreased by 2.49%, etc. [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass prices remained unchanged, glass2605 and glass2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 1.79% [7]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash prices remained unchanged, soda2605 and soda2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 7.14% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.46%, the weekly production decreased by 0.46%, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.20%, etc. [7]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.38%, the soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.16%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 0.43% [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate showed different trends [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 0.7%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, etc. [8]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB Middle East port price decreased by 1.4%, export profit increased by 0.6% [8]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 4.8%, FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based price decreased by 1.7%, export profit decreased by 577.7% [8]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.9%, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.4%, the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 15.0%, etc. [8]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 2.3%, the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate remained unchanged, the printing and dyeing industry operating rate decreased by 3.8% [8]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate**: The Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 4.5%, the profile operating rate increased by 5.4%, the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 4.5% [8]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory: Social and Factory Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory warehouse inventory increased by 5.5%, the Shandong inventory decreased by 0.4%, the PVC upstream factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.9%, the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.7% [8]. Urea Industry - **Futures Revenue Prices**: The 01, 05, and 09 contracts of urea increased, and the methanol main contract increased by 1.52% [9]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread decreased by 16.67%, 05 - 09 spread increased by 31.82%, UR - MA main contract spread decreased by 6.16% [9]. - **Main Positions**: The long - position of the top 20 increased by 0.99%, the short - position of the top 20 increased by 6.89% [9]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of anthracite small pieces, thermal coal pit - mouth, and port prices remained unchanged, and the synthetic ammonia price decreased by 0.09% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, etc., showed different changes [9]. - **Cross - regional Spreads**: The spreads between Shandong - Henan, Guangdong - Henan, and Guangdong - Shanxi remained unchanged [9]. - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and Guangdong changed [9]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine, compound fertilizers, etc., remained unchanged, and the price of ammonium sulfate increased by 1.35%, the price of sulfur decreased by 1.50% [9]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 2.64%, the coal - based urea daily production increased by 3.92%, the gas - based urea daily production decreased by 4.90%, etc. [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent increased by 1.23%, WTI increased by 1.31%, SC increased by 1.47%, and the spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 1.45%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.75%, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.08%, and the spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc., changed [11]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2605 and MA2609 prices increased, MA59 spread decreased by 16.00%, Taicang basis decreased by 28.57%, etc. [13]. - **Methanol Outer - market Prices**: The lowest CFR China price decreased by 0.10% [13]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.12%, the social inventory increased by 0.05%, and the port inventory increased by 1.00% [13]. - **Methanol Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, the northwest enterprise sales - production ratio decreased by 3.28%, the external MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56%, etc. [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude and WTI crude prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, CFR China pure benzene increased by 1.5%, etc. [15]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price increased by 1.3%, EB2603 and EB2604 prices increased, EB basis (03) decreased by 14.3%, etc. [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flows**: The cash - flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, etc., changed [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.7%, the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 7.6% [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 2.5%, etc. [15]. Polyolefin Industry - **L2605, L2609, PP2605, PP2609 Prices**: The prices of these contracts increased [17]. - **Spreads**: L59 spread decreased by 54.84%, PP59 spread remained unchanged, LP05 spread decreased by 0.53% [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The East China PP拉丝, North China LLDPE spot prices increased [17]. - **Basis**: The North China LL basis decreased by 18.75%, the East China pp basis remained unchanged [17]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of East China LDPE, HD film, HD injection, etc., changed [17]. - **PE Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [17]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.58%, the PE social inventory increased by

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: No specific rating mentioned but market shows strength [2] - Polyethylene and Polypropylene: No specific rating mentioned, mixed signals in market [2] - PX and PTA: Positive in the first half of the year, but with inventory concerns around the Spring Festival [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Potential for short - term improvement in the second quarter, long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre: Price follows raw materials, weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip: Consider spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure [3] - Pure Benzene: Short - term uncertainty, potential downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene: Short - term price pressure [5] - Methanol: Short - term bullish, medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline slowly [6] - Urea: Price fluctuates within a range [6] - PVC: Monitor export and cost factors, inventory pressure exists [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak reality, potential for production cut, profit compression [7] - Soda Ash: High - altitude shorting strategy, long - term oversupply pressure [8] - Glass: Seasonal inventory build - up expected, follow macro sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, cost changes, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal factors. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities, with some facing short - term uncertainties and others having long - term capacity pressures [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with low enterprise inventory and increased buying due to strong futures and downstream restocking [2] - Polyethylene has supply pressure and decreasing demand, while polypropylene has cost support and reduced inventory pressure but weak new orders [2] Polyester - PX and PTA may be bullish in the first half, but inventory may accumulate around the Spring Festival. Consider positive spreads in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol may improve in the second quarter but is under long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre price follows raw materials with weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip may have spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure exists [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene price is strong but may face downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term, with medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline [6] - Urea price fluctuates within a range due to demand and supply factors [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC has inventory pressure, and its price is affected by exports and costs [7] - Caustic Soda has high inventory and profit compression, with potential for production cuts [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash has inventory pressure and long - term oversupply, use a high - altitude shorting strategy [8] - Glass may have seasonal inventory build - up and follow macro sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are weakly stable. The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3123 yuan and 3287 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar remains at 200 yuan. Due to raw material prices being weaker than steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has increased. Production is stable at a low level, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is decreasing. The supply - demand of the industry is weak. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is obvious, the supply - demand gap of rebar is widening, and inventory is accumulating significantly. The demand for hot - rolled coil has not declined much, and the inventory is still being depleted. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate within a range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3200 yuan, and hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3350 yuan. The long - position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be continued to hold [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly yesterday. The ore price is still under pressure. Although Vale's production suspension event has limited impact on supply, the supply side has a slightly increasing global shipment volume, with a marginal decline in the shipment center but still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. The demand side is expected to keep the molten iron production stable, and the seasonal decline in the port clearance volume indicates that the resumption of molten iron production before the festival is restricted. Steel exports have weakened significantly. Port inventory continues to accumulate but at a slower pace, and steel mill inventory growth has also slowed down. Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure. It can be short - sold around 800 yuan. Be vigilant against macro - level fluctuations [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weakly declining trend yesterday. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has landed and stabilized. The supply side has slightly reduced production due to pressure on coking profits. The demand side has seen a slight recovery in molten iron production after the New Year's Day. The inventory in ports and steel mills has increased, while that in coking plants has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a price increase, but it has not been implemented, and the post - festival market is expected to be loose. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1600 - 1750 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures also showed a weakly declining trend. The supply side has seen an increase in daily production and better shipments but insufficient inventory reduction. The demand side has limited downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival. The inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills has increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1000 - 1150 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly yesterday, with a continuous decline in open interest. The supply is stable at a low level, and most regions' production is flat compared to last week. The steel - making demand is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival, and the non - steel demand has weakened. The cost in Inner Mongolia may increase due to the expected electricity price adjustment. The overall situation is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. The main ferromanganese contract also oscillated weakly, with a gradual increase in open interest. The supply has decreased, and the production is at a historically low level. The demand is also weak, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan [6] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3280 yuan to 3260 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 16 yuan [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billet decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan to 27 yuan [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The production of rebar increased by 9.3 tons to 199.6 tons, with a 4.9% increase, and the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 305.4 tons, with a 1.0% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 tons to 1257.1 tons, with a 0.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 tons to 452.1 tons, with a 3.2% increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 357.8 tons, with a 1.3% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.0 tons to 6.6 tons, with a 12.8% decrease. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 tons to 809.5 tons, with a 2.0% decrease [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 - contract for some varieties decreased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan to - 31.0 yuan, with a 5.1% decrease [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 tons to 2530.0 tons, with a 4.9% decrease, and the global shipment volume increased by 48.4 tons to 2978.3 tons, with a 1.7% increase [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 9.2 tons to 310.7 tons, with a 2.9% decrease [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 211.4 tons to 16766.53 tons, with a 1.3% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 tons to 9388.8 tons, with a 1.4% increase [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices generally decreased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke decreased by 51 yuan to 1668 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 43 yuan to 1117 yuan [5] Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.3 tons, with a 0.2% decrease, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 46.9 tons, with a 0.4% increase. The raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, with a 0.3% decrease [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The demand for coke mainly comes from the molten iron production [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 tons to 939.2 tons, with a 2.1% increase. The coking coal inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports decreased [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly. The SF - SM main spread decreased by 14 yuan to - 214 yuan [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit decreased. The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port were relatively stable [6] Supply - The production of ferrosilicon was stable at a low level, and the production of ferromanganese decreased slightly. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 tons to 77.7 tons, with a 7.2% increase [6] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steel - making is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival. The non - steel demand for ferrosilicon has weakened [6] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.3 tons to 6.7 tons, with a 5.4% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises was stable [6]

2026 年 01 月 27 日 【趋势强度】 短纤：短期趋势偏强 20260127 瓶片：短期趋势偏强 20260127 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6828 | 6778 | 50 | PF02-03 | 2 | ন | 6 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6826 | 6782 | 44 | PF03-04 | -50 | ウイ | -144 | | | 短纤2604 | 6876 | ୧୧୫୫ | 188 | PF主力基差 | -96 | -152 | 56 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 189740 | 174102 | 15638 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.730 | 6.630 | 100 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 193912 | 190049 | 3863 | 短纤产销率 | 57% | 11 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for soybean oil futures has increased by over 3%, currently priced at 9266 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai Rubber (RU) and Synthetic Rubber (BR) are expected to run in a strong - biased manner, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong - biased [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex rubber. However, Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are positive, and December's heavy - truck sales are better than expected. Due to the increasing bullish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, the Shanghai Rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, have tightened recently, driving up its price significantly. Butadiene accounts for over 70% of the production cost of synthetic rubber. The upward oscillation of international crude oil has supported the high price of naphtha, rigidly raising the cost and laying a foundation for the futures price. The operating rate of butadiene plants has dropped to 72%, while the operating rate of downstream rubber plants remains at a high level of 78%, strengthening the expectation of cost increase. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern provides important support. In addition, the natural rubber in Southeast Asia has entered the production - reducing season, and the price difference between Shanghai Rubber standard rubber and synthetic rubber has widened significantly, indirectly supporting the upward shift of the synthetic rubber price center. The domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a strong - biased stance on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on Monday [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the spot price of eggs is strong during the pre - holiday peak season [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2602 is 3,031 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.88%, a trading volume change of - 605, and a position change of - 5,157. The closing price of egg2603 is 3,046 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.59%, a trading volume change of 6,476, and a position change of - 3,830 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 2 - 3 spread is - 15 (previous day: - 1), and the egg 3 - 9 spread is - 885 (previous day: - 865) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.80 yuan/jin, 3.56 yuan/jin, 3.90 yuan/jin, and 3.80 yuan/jin respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. - **Feed and Related Product Prices**: The latest corn spot price is 2,375 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 3,080 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 13.28 yuan/kg, all showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber price continued to rebound on Thursday. With domestic production areas in the off - season and Thailand's northeastern areas expected to stop tapping in January while the southern part is in the peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing. The short - term supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The short - term rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalog Futures Market - RU, NR, and BR futures prices all rose, with increases of 105 (0.67%), 120 (0.95%), and 355 (2.98%) respectively. The trading volume of RU, NR, and BR was 182,370, 48,300, and 182,757 respectively. The open interest of RU increased by 355, NR decreased by 1231, and BR increased by 10 [2] - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3115, 3580, and 465 respectively, with changes of - 15, - 250, and - 235 compared to the previous values [2] - The RU basis, mixed - RU, and smoke sheet - RU were - 350, - 1135, and 2350 respectively, with changes compared to the previous values [2] Spot Market - The prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming, as well as smoke sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai, and mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan remained unchanged, with a growth rate of 0.00% [2] - The prices of Thai smoke sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex also remained unchanged, with a growth rate of 0.00% [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The risk preference of LLDPE continues to spill over, and the basis weakens significantly. The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, the mid - stream order placement improves, but the basis weakens. The downstream product profit is compressed, resisting high prices. The external quotation rises, and the long - term import profit is opened. The raw material end oil price strengthens, the ethylene monomer weakens, and the PE process profit is repaired. The supply side has new capacity trial - production and the maintenance plan decreases, and there is supply - demand pressure in the medium term[1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6814, with a daily increase of 2.22%. The trading volume is 567,632, and the position changes by 11,162[1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract is - 164 (previous day: - 146), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 31 (previous day: - 28)[1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot price in North China is 6650 yuan/ton (previous day: 6520), in East China is 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6650), and in South China is 6750 yuan/ton (previous day: 6700)[1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, and the mid - stream order placement improves again. The production of standard products continues to rise, the trading volume weakens significantly, and the basis weakens sharply. The downstream product profit is compressed and resists high prices. The external quotation rises, the LL supply is scarce, the long - term import profit is opened, and the importer's trading volume increases. The downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Geopolitical intensification may support the US dollar market to run strongly[1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end oil price strengthens, the Middle East geopolitical risk is not released, the ethylene monomer link weakens, and the PE ethylene and ethane process profits are repaired. The PE futures market continues to rebound, the trading volume is mostly concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising price to replenish goods. The downstream agricultural film is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but after the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, the factory inventory decreases slightly, and the basis is weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial - production, the maintenance plan in January decreases month - on - month, some FD switches back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high inventory capacity and weakening demand in the medium term still needs to be concerned[2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1[3]