Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the domestic futures market saw a majority of the main contracts rise, with polysilicon increasing by over 5% [1] - Other commodities such as焦煤 (coking coal),橡胶 (rubber), 丁二烯橡胶 (butadiene rubber), and 20号胶 (No. 20 rubber) also experienced gains of over 2% [1] - In contrast, commodities like沥青 (asphalt),低硫燃料油 (low sulfur fuel oil),生猪 (live pigs), and不锈钢 (stainless steel) faced declines of over 1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Weak operation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, inventories, and corporate profitability [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum and aluminum alloy are neutral, while that of alumina is weak [3]. Directory Summaries Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,605, down 105 from the previous trading day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,590, down 24. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,980, down 12. The trading volume and open interest showed significant changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,215, down 70. The trading volume and open interest also changed [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,600 tons. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,990.62, with a slight decline [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,188, down 16. The alumina prices at ports and from overseas also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The ADC12 theoretical profit was 373, and the prices of related products and the inventory of three regions changed [1]. Other Information - The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. The index in August was 52, higher than the expected 51 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the sentiment for gold is cooling, and silver is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The trend strength for both gold and silver is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 closed at 814.88 with a daily increase of 1.31% and a night - session close of 821.68 with a 1.40% increase; Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3619.70 with a 0.56% increase [2]. - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9820 with a - 0.04% decrease and a night - session close of 9918.00 with a 1.34% increase; Comex Silver 2510 closed at 41.810 with a 0.19% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: - Gold: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 contract against 2512 contract was 265,502, an increase of 66,450 from the previous day; the position was 142,330, an increase of 3,706 [2]. - Silver: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 627,101, an increase of 79,159 from the previous day; the position was 270,592, a decrease of 12,126 [2]. - **ETF and Inventory Data**: - ETF: SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 984.26, a decrease of 6 from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Gold inventory was 40,251 kg, an increase of 60 kg from the previous day; Shanghai Silver inventory was 1,227,039 kg, an increase of 11,811 kg [2]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost Data**: - Gold: The spread between Gold T + D and AU251 was - 4.91, unchanged from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Gold and selling June Shanghai Gold for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 0.87 to 4.77 [2]. - Silver: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 was 24, an increase of 1 from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Silver and selling June Shanghai Silver for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 11.3 to 73.41 [2]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: - The US dollar index was 98.16, a decrease of 0.16%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.15, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US economic data shows mixed signals: The ISM services index expansion speed reached a six - month high, but employment was weak; ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 237,000, the highest since June; the trade deficit widened to a four - month high due to a surge in imports [2][5]. - Fed's stance: The Fed's third - in - command said that gradual interest rate cuts were appropriate, while a voting member for next year reiterated that they did not support a rate cut in September [5]. - Other news: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed governor Cook; Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing a maximum 15% tariff on most Japanese products; Nasdaq tightened regulations on cryptocurrency concept stocks and small - cap stocks [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength for gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Group 1: Core View - The supply is diverse during the new and old crop season, and the competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies. It is expected to maintain a range-bound trend [4]. - If Brazil's production exceeds expectations or India relaxes exports, raw sugar may test the previous low again [4]. Group 2: Price Data Domestic Price Data - In the domestic market, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan is 5850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Dali, Yunnan is 5720 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong is 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - The futures price of SR09 is 5611 yuan, down 12 yuan; SR01 is 5599 yuan, down 10 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 12, down 2 [4]. International Price Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1564, up 0.0075; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.34, unchanged; the price of the London white sugar main contract is 573, up 3; the price of the Brent crude oil main contract is 68.16, unchanged [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [3] Group 2: Futures Contract Data - **Prices**: On September 2, BU主力合约 was at 3551, up 11 from the previous day and 39 from the previous week; BU06 was at 3457, up 27 daily and 85 weekly; BU09 was at 3543, down 4 daily and 2 weekly; BU12 was at 3492, up 26 daily and 60 weekly; BU03 was at 3468, up 38 daily and 74 weekly [4] - **Volume and Open Interest**: On September 2, the trading volume was 349,892, up 12,718 from the previous day and 92,337 from the previous week; the open interest was 491,894, up 35,556 daily and 80,407 weekly [4] - **Combined Positions**: On September 2, the combined positions were 29,790, unchanged from the previous day and down 1,150 from the previous week [4] Group 3: Spot Market Data - **Market Prices**: On September 2, the Shandong market price was 3,540, up 30 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the East China market price was 3,700, up 10 daily and 50 weekly; the South China market price was 3,530, up 10 daily and 50 weekly; the North China market price was 3,650, up 10 daily and unchanged weekly; the Northeast market price was 3,870, unchanged daily and down 10 weekly [4] - **Enterprise Prices**: On September 2, Jingbo (Haiyun) was at 3,670, up 10 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week; Xinhai (Xin Bohai) was at 3,650, up 10 daily and unchanged weekly [4] - **Regional Price Differences**: On September 2, Shandong - East China was -160, up 30 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week; Shandong - Northeast was -330, up 30 daily and 30 weekly; East China - South China was 170, down 10 daily and 70 weekly [4] Group 4: Basis and Calendar Spread Data - **Basis**: On September 2, the Shandong basis was -11, up 19 from the previous day and down 19 from the previous week; the East China basis was 149, down 11 daily and 20 weekly; the South China basis was -21, down 1 daily and up 11 weekly [4] - **Calendar Spreads**: On September 2, 03 - 06 was 11, up 11 from the previous day and down 11 from the previous week; 06 - 09 was -86, up 31 daily and 87 weekly; 09 - 12 was 51, down 30 daily and 62 weekly; 12 - 03 was 24, down 12 daily and 14 weekly; the first - second contract spread was 8, down 10 daily and 21 weekly [4] Group 5: Crack Spread and Profit Data - **Crack Spreads**: On September 2, the asphalt - Brent crack spread was -8, up 28 from the previous day and down 11 from the previous week [4] - **Profits**: On September 2, the asphalt - Ma Rui profit was -75, up 25 from the previous day and down 11 from the previous week; the ordinary refinery's comprehensive profit was 361, up 21 daily and down 55 weekly; the Ma Rui - type refinery's comprehensive profit was 656, up 25 daily and down 34 weekly; the import profit (South Korea - East China) was -52, up 75 daily and 74 weekly; the import profit (Singapore - South China) was -919, up 86 daily and 141 weekly [4] Group 6: Related Price Data - **Crude Oil**: On September 2, Brent crude oil was at 68.2, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.9 from the previous week [4] - **Refined Products**: On September 2, the Shandong market price of gasoline was 7,525, up 8 from the previous day and down 93 from the previous week; the Shandong market price of diesel was 6,441, up 52 daily and down 35 weekly; the Shandong market price of residual oil was 3,252, down 25 daily and 110 weekly [4]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber is expected to move in a range, with a strategy of going long on PF and short on PR recommended. Bottle chips are also expected to move in a range [1]. - Short - fiber futures fluctuate with raw materials, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 40%. Bottle chip factory quotes are mostly stable, and the market trading atmosphere is light [1][2]. 3) Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber 2509 remained at 6380, short - fiber 2510 decreased by 14 to 6486, and short - fiber 2511 decreased by 44 to 6468. The spread PF09 - 10 increased by 14 to - 106, PF10 - 11 increased by 30 to 18. The short - fiber main contract's open interest increased by 32556 to 171800, and the trading volume decreased by 18789 to 138898. The short - fiber sales - to - production ratio decreased by 8% to 40%, and the East China spot price remained at 6535 [1]. - **Bottle chips**: The price of bottle chips 2509 decreased by 18 to 5818, bottle chips 2510 decreased by 20 to 5952, and bottle chips 2511 decreased by 6 to 5950. The spread PR09 - 10 increased by 2 to - 134, PR10 - 11 decreased by 14 to 2. The bottle chip main contract's open interest increased by 761 to 32115, and the trading volume decreased by 10121 to 50362. The East China spot price increased by 30 to 5890, and the South China spot price remained at 5960 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber futures fluctuate with raw materials. Factory quotes are stable, and traders offer discounts. Downstream demand is based on orders, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 40% as of 3:00 pm [1]. - **Bottle chips**: Upstream polyester raw material futures decline slightly. Factory quotes are mostly stable, and the trading atmosphere is light. Orders from September to November are mostly traded at 5880 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle chips is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a mixed trend. The PG main contract fluctuates weakly, and the basis first weakens and then strengthens. The 9 - 10 and 10 - 11 spreads change. The warehouse receipt registration volume increases. The 9 - month CP official price remains stable. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are controllable. PDH, alkylation, and MTBE have different operating rates. The combustion off - season is ending but demand is still weak. The cheapest delivery area in East China is expected to have a tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, with an overall stable and upward trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Price Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc., show different changes. For example, South China LPG drops from 4620 to 4580, a decrease of 40 [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 10 month spread is - 721 (- 212), and the 10 - 11 month spread is 84 (- 3). The FEI - CP is 21.5 (+ 4.5), and the AFEL offshore discount is 5.5 (- 0.5), while the CP South China arrival discount is 65 (+ 8) [1]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Port inventories are decreasing, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are controllable. The warehouse receipt registration volume is 13207 hands (+ 320), with different changes in different companies such as Qingdao Yunda (- 55), Wuchan Zhongda (- 65), and Donghua (+ 440) [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Operating Rates**: PDH operating rate is 73.02% (- 2.64pct), alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+ 0.74), and MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+ 0). Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week and is expected to increase load next week, and Hebei Haiwei plans to stop work [1]. - **Profit Situation**: PDH spot profit changes little, paper profit fluctuates downward, alkylation oil production gross profit declines, and MTBE gross profit moves down [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The combustion off - season is gradually ending, but demand is still weak. The cheapest delivery area in East China is expected to have a tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs [1].

Core Viewpoint - The futures night market showed a mixed performance with the majority of main contracts experiencing price increases, indicating a positive sentiment in the commodities market [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Low sulfur fuel oil increased by nearly 2% [1] - Palm oil rose by 1.67% [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) saw a rise of 1.42% [1] - Asphalt prices increased by 1.3% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 11 - contract was in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish volatile adjustment next week. The supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased [4][5][77]. - For polysilicon, the 11 - contract was also in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bearish volatile adjustment next week. The supply is expected to continue increasing, demand is showing continuous recovery, and cost support has weakened [7][8][79]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The 11 - contract opened at 8930 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8390 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 6.04% [4]. - **Supply**: This week's supply was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% increase from the previous week. Sample enterprise production was 40,340 tons, a 5.51% increase. Yunnan's sample enterprise operating rate remained flat at 68.04%, Sichuan's increased by 6.23% to 32.59%, and Xinjiang's increased by 6.99% to 62.57%. The expected operating rate for this month is 53.8%, up 1.19 percentage points from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week's demand was 82,000 tons, a 3.80% increase from the previous week. In polysilicon, inventory was 213,000 tons, lower than the historical average. In organic silicon, inventory was 54,300 tons, lower than the historical average, with a production profit of 105 yuan/ton and an operating rate of 70.59%. In aluminum alloy, inventory was 54,600 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 541,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 173,500 tons, a 0.91% decrease; and major port inventory was 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [5]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The 11 - contract opened at 52,320 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 49,555 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 5.28% [7]. - **Supply**: Last week's production was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% increase. The predicted production for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from last month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, silicon wafer production was 15.63 GW, a 27.17% increase, with an inventory of 180,500 tons, a 3.67% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production in July was 58.19 GW, a 0.20% increase, and last week's inventory was 7.03 GW, a 20.99% increase, also in a loss state. Component production in July was 47.1 GW, a 1.72% increase, and the expected production in August is 46.82 GW, a 0.59% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,570 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,430 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 213,000 tons, a 14.45% decrease, at a historical low [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: There are trends in the basis of the SI main contract, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc. [14][15]. - **Inventory**: There are trends in the inventory of delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the quantity of registered warrants [17][18][19]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: There are trends in the weekly production, monthly production by specification, and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions [21][22][23]. - **Cost**: There are trends in the costs of major production areas such as electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There are weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance [29][33]. Industrial Silicon Downstream - **Organic Silicon**: There are trends in DMC price, production, capacity utilization, profit, cost, downstream product prices, import - export, and inventory [35][37][41]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: There are trends in price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) [44][47][49]. - **Polysilicon**: There are trends in cost, price, inventory, production, demand, supply - demand balance, and the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [52][53][55]. 3. Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The main 11 - contract was in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish volatile adjustment next week. There are price and trading volume trends, as well as moving average data [75][77]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The main 11 - contract was in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bearish volatile adjustment next week. There are price and trading volume trends, as well as moving average data [78][79].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 01 日 铝：重心上移 氧化铝：下方空间恐仍在 铸造铝合金：强于电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20740 | -10 | 110 | -50 | 555 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20725 | - | l | - | । | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2619 | 12 | -3 | -20 | 120 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 121242 | -13332 | -32099 | -23367 | -49296 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 236608 | -8420 | -679 | -90874 ...