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5月7日“一揽子金稳”国新办发布会点评:风雨同舟浪自平
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-07 10:15
Core Insights - The report emphasizes a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and managing expectations, particularly in response to recent economic challenges [2][3][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a series of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [3][8] - The report highlights the importance of collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies to enhance economic stability, especially in light of weaker domestic economic data and a declining US dollar index [3][6] Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC's measures include quantity-based policies such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio and adjusting policy interest rates, which aim to increase long-term liquidity supply [3][8] - Specific actions include a 0.25 percentage point reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates and a similar reduction in housing provident fund loan rates, with the five-year rate for first-time homebuyers dropping to 2.85% [3][8] - The PBOC plans to enhance the monetary policy framework and improve the transmission mechanism to ensure effective resource allocation [3][6] Financial Sector Support - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) is introducing policies to support the real estate market, including new financing systems tailored to the evolving real estate development model [4][8] - The report outlines initiatives to expand the scope of long-term insurance fund investments and reduce investment risk factors for insurance companies, thereby stabilizing the capital market [4][8] - The CBIRC is also focused on facilitating financing for small and private enterprises, as well as enhancing support for foreign trade [4][8] Capital Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to maintaining a stable and active capital market, with plans to support the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. in its role as a stabilizing fund [5][8] - The CSRC aims to promote the development of technology innovation bonds and enhance the quality of public funds, fostering a positive cycle of returns, capital inflow, and market stability [5][8] - Upcoming reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market are expected to improve market inclusivity and adaptability [5][8] Economic Outlook - The report notes a significant decline in the new export orders index, which fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, indicating a challenging external environment [6] - The need for proactive policy measures is underscored, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations amid complex global conditions [6][8]
这场打破常规的新闻发布会,释放重磅金融信号
和讯· 2025-05-07 09:37
文/李悦 曹萌 刘思嘉 5月7日上午9时 , 在沪深两市开盘前半小时, 中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云 泽、中国证监会主席吴清罕见 集体 亮相国务院新闻办发布会 , 介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况 , 一次性 抛出 货币政策 十项措施 、 金融监管 八项增量政策 , 以及 活跃资本 市场 多项 举措 。 在业内人士看来,这场新闻发布会 在举办 时点 、会议内容 等方面 明显超出市场预期。 中泰证券指出, 首先是召开时间,昨天下午才提前公告。其次是均为一把手出席,市场之前对出席 的"负责人"级别有诸多讨论。最后是政策超预期,货币政策降准降息,三部委多措并举稳楼市稳股 市。 除了落实4月25日政治局会议外,可能也和4月官方制造业 PMI弱于季节性有关。 对比 去年 9 月 24 日的 新闻发布会 来 看,本次新闻发布会期间市场 反应 相对平稳 , 三大指数 高开后震荡回落,深证成指、创业板指一度翻绿,临近收盘有所拉升。截至收盘,沪指涨0.80%, 深证成指涨0.22%,创业板指涨0.51%。 中泰证券认为, 一方面是因美国对等关税政策落地后,中国各类稳市场政策取得了积极成效,这和 ...
政策信号积极明确 金融机构真金白银彰显信心
Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a "sustained, stable, and active capital market," indicating a strong commitment from the government towards capital market development [2][3][4] - Securities firms are actively supporting the stock market through share buyback and shareholder increase plans, reflecting confidence in the long-term investment value of A-shares [6][7] - The meeting's focus on "sustained stability and active capital markets" suggests that new policies aimed at enhancing market activity are expected to be implemented soon, which will further promote high-quality development in the capital market [8][9] Group 2 - Insurance companies are planning to increase their equity asset allocation, focusing on core A-share assets and sectors such as banking, transportation, public utilities, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals [12][14] - The first quarter saw insurance funds increasing their holdings in sectors like pharmaceuticals, steel, and home appliances, indicating a strategic shift towards sectors with growth potential [13] - Insurance funds are expected to inject significant capital into the market, with projections of annual inflows of approximately 600 billion to 800 billion yuan over the next three years, driven by a demand for high-dividend stocks [15] Group 3 - Public funds are optimistic about the capital market, planning to increase their A-share allocations and focus on structural opportunities in technology and consumption sectors [16][18] - The meeting's emphasis on stability and activity in the capital market is seen as a positive signal for future policy measures, which are expected to support economic growth and enhance market liquidity [17][19] - Fund managers are identifying six key investment opportunities, including technology innovation, consumption upgrades, infrastructure, real estate transformation, green economy, and capital market reforms [19]
“活跃股市”安排上!政治局会议最新定调,中长期资金等增量政策有望加快落地,“红五月”可期?
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-04-28 09:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and active capital market in China, as highlighted by the recent Politburo meeting [2][3][4] - The meeting's addition of the term "active" alongside "stable" indicates a more proactive policy stance aimed at boosting investor confidence and enhancing market vitality [3][4] - The report from Huaxi Securities suggests that the "national team" is expected to intervene in the market to stabilize it if external factors cause disruptions [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that since April 7, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown resilience, rising 6.4% from around 3000 points to approximately 3300 points despite external pressures [4][6] - The report highlights that the proportion of residents' property income in national income was only 4.7% in 2022, significantly lower than over 10% in developed economies, indicating a need for improved wealth preservation and growth through the stock market [4][6] - The article discusses potential policy measures to enhance market stability, including optimizing listing and financing systems for quality tech companies and encouraging long-term investments [6][7] Group 3 - The article mentions that the upcoming policies may focus on promoting mergers and acquisitions to improve the quality of listed companies and support industrial upgrades [7][9] - It also suggests that the market may experience fluctuations in the short term due to a lack of new driving factors and external uncertainties, but mid-term prospects remain positive as external pressures ease [8][9] - The report indicates that investors should pay attention to sectors with high safety margins and strong earnings certainty, particularly in dividend stocks and technology, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy support [10]
证券日报:资本市场“稳”是底色“活”是动力
news flash· 2025-04-27 23:11
文章称,"活跃资本市场"可以从三方面持续发力。一是提高上市公司吸引力。二是加大力度引入长期资 金。引导更多的长期资金入市,能够进一步提升市场的活跃度,为资本市场注入新的活力,同时也能有 效提升市场的抗风险能力。 ...
本周操盘攻略:21个省份GDP超预期目标
Wind万得· 2025-04-27 22:24
// 一、市场要闻 // 1、国务院新闻办公室于4月27日(星期日)下午3时举行新闻发布会,请商务部副部长盛秋平和财政部、文化和旅游部、海关总署、税务总局、中国 民航局有关负责人介绍优化离境退税政策扩大入境消费有关情况,并答记者问。此外,27日还会公布中国3月规模以上工业企业利润数据。 2、全国31个省份的一季度经济运行情况已全部发布,其中21个省份达到或超过GDP预期增长目标,经济大省更是普遍超预期。从GDP排名来看,一 季度,上海、辽宁均连升2位,四川从第6位升至第5位;湖北则以6.3%增速领跑经济大省。此外,中西部和东北地区更敢花钱,消费增速排名前9名 均来自中西部和东北地区。 跨境贸易 国务院副总理何立峰出席跨境贸易便利化专项行动部署会并讲话。他指出,要抓好专项行动的组织实施,在取得阶段工作成效基础上,将成熟的举 措和经验做法尽快在全国复制推广。加力培育壮大外贸发展新动能,以更优口岸营商环境激发活力、应对外部冲击、稳定增长。 海关总署牵头部署开展跨境贸易便利化专项行动。专项行动为期5个月,将在全国25个城市开展,政策举措涵盖货物贸易、数字贸易、绿色贸易等领 域。 旅游 据交通运输部,2025年"五一" ...
资本市场“稳”是底色“活”是动力
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-04-27 17:20
Core Viewpoint - The recent statement from the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for a "stable and active capital market," indicating a dual focus on stability and market vitality moving forward [1][2]. Group 1: Stability as a Foundation - Stability is the essential foundation for the healthy development of the capital market, serving as a baseline requirement for preventing financial risks and activating economic momentum [2]. - The Chinese capital market has been recognized as one of the most vibrant globally, with its stock and bond markets ranking second in size worldwide, and commodity futures trading volumes consistently among the highest [2]. Group 2: Activity as a Driving Force - An active capital market enhances self-repair and adjustment capabilities, stabilizing prices and expectations while providing continuous financing support for enterprises [3]. - A vibrant market attracts more social capital, serving as a reservoir for wealth preservation and appreciation, which in turn promotes the stability of the real economy and the capital market [3]. Group 3: Strategies for an Active Market - Increasing the attractiveness of listed companies is crucial, as they are the source of investment value in the capital market [4]. - There is a need to attract more long-term capital into the market to enhance activity and improve risk resistance [4]. - Continuous optimization of a healthy market ecosystem is essential, including strict measures against financial fraud and market manipulation, to create a favorable investment environment [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of stability and activity will provide a solid foundation for the Chinese capital market to face risks and challenges ahead [5].
A股与5年前的走势相似,股民:越走越像!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 13:37
特别值得注意的是,在最近的一次重要会议上,"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"被提上议程。这里的"活跃"二字,犹如一阵春风,预示着市场活力的新一轮释 放。对于许多资深股民而言,他们深知市场的规则——它是由政策引导的,而在这个过程中,政策往往有着不达目的誓不罢休的决心。因此,与新手股民相 比,这些老手们心中的担忧要少得多,反而对未来的走势抱有更大的期待和信心。 即便大盘仍在3300点前徘徊,众多股民的心中却燃起了一丝谨慎的乐观。它就像在一场马拉松比赛中,虽然终点线看起来还有一段距离,但沿途的风景已经 让人感到心旷神怡。实际上,在市场的角落里,不少个股已悄然弥补了自关税风波以来留下的缺口,仿佛那些曾经的跌宕起伏从未发生过。 在5年前的转折点出现是券商股突然崛起,在光大证券大涨的影响下,诸如三一重工、五粮液、中国中免等核心资产股开始了牛市进程。在这个过程中,券 商股是必不可少的点,因为它的启动往往都是"摔杯为号"的特征。 现在,如果想要大盘突破当前在3300点的困扰,应该也需要券商股的破局才行。好在的是,近几个交易日,券商股有点"山雨欲来风满楼"的意味,几次在盘 中异动。只不过,由于受到长时间熊市思维的束缚,每次异动都会被抛 ...
南辕北辙
猫笔刀· 2024-06-27 14:19
今天两市成交6200亿,比昨天又萎缩了一点,以前日均万亿的时候不死不活,现在打了6折也还是不死不活。消失 的成交量里有很多原先都是做量化的,没了它们市场倒是清净了不少。 今天两市的中位数下跌1.98%,昨天的"大奇迹"基本都吐回去了,官军在市场下跌的时候例行的打卡上班,和前几 天差不多也是日内百亿左右的买量,微微抬了抬指数,但是作用不明显。 …… 因为今天北上通道的外资抛了109亿,逃跑的外援和护盘的官军,正好抵消了。 我晚上在雪球看到一张2024年统计南下和北上累计资金的走势图,转发给你们看看。 蓝色的线是今年南下资金的走势,橙线是北上资金的走势。蓝线一路高攀,你可以理解为内地资金今年在持续加 仓港股,而橙线的走势则一言难尽,虽然累计下来也是正流入,但流入量只有蓝线的10%左右。尤其是最近一个 月,外资一直在流出、流出、流出。 难搞哎,粪坑兄弟在双边都有合规通道的情况下,资金的出入竟然差了10倍,说明在资本的眼里,粪二的吸引力 要远远高于粪大。这要是和美股也搞一个沪纽通、深纳通之类的,资金走势怕是会更极端。 情况就是这么个情况,外资从去年8月以来就不怎么买a股了,而在此之前的八九年,每年平均下来都有两三千亿 ...