日本总务省5月23日公布4月消费者物价指数。其中，大米类价格较去年同期上涨98.4%，连续7个月刷 新历史最大涨幅。这也是自1971年有可比数据以来的最大涨幅。日本新任农林水产大臣小泉进次郎5月 21日上任当天表示，只要有需求，政府将无限量投放储备米。小泉今天又表示，政府预计最早在6月上 旬投放，在超市等零售端上架每5公斤2000日元至3000日元区间的储备米。（CCTV国际时讯） ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's real wages, adjusted for price fluctuations, decreased by 0.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year, marking three consecutive years of negative growth. Despite nominal wage increases, the impact of rising prices, particularly for rice, has led to a reduction in real wages [1]. Group 1: Wage Statistics - The actual wage decline in 2024 is less severe than in 2023, narrowing by 1.7 percentage points. The consumer price index used for calculating real wages increased by 3.5%, continuing a trend of over 3% for three years [1]. - The average nominal cash wage for 2024 is 349,388 yen (approximately 17,500 RMB), reflecting a 3.0% increase from the previous year, which is the highest nominal wage growth since 1991 [1]. - For regular employees, cash wages increased by 3.5% to 455,726 yen (approximately 22,900 RMB), while part-time workers saw a 3.9% increase to 112,637 yen (approximately 5,659 RMB) [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Fixed wages, including base salary and family allowances, rose to 263,381 yen (approximately 13,200 RMB), with a growth rate of 2.1%, surpassing 2% for the first time since 1994 [2]. - The mining and quarrying sector experienced the highest growth in fixed wages at 5.6%, followed by the life-related services and information communication sectors at 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively [2]. - Bonuses and special payments increased by 7.5%, a significant rise of 5.9 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a strong performance in this area despite overall real wage declines [2].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on the four major stock indices in the long - term, suggesting investors to look past short - term fluctuations. The specific ratings for stock index futures are: IH (long), IF (long), IM (slightly long), IC (slightly long) [1][2] Core View - The decline in deposit rates below 1% continues to be positive for the market. The reduction of deposit rates by the six major banks is expected to drive household savings and insurance funds into the stock market. The market style is expected to shift towards the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The global re - allocation of financial assets will prompt overseas institutional funds to pour into the A - share market [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets strengthened. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.17 trillion yuan, with little change. The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2728 points, up 11 points or 0.43%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3916 points, up 18 points or 0.47%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5757 points, up 10 points or 0.18%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6132 points, down 13 points or - 0.23%. Among industry and theme ETFs, gold stock ETFs, non - ferrous 50 ETFs, coal ETFs, battery ETFs, and new energy vehicle ETFs led the gains, while semiconductor leading ETFs, machine tool ETFs, and chip ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, precious metals, batteries, commercial vehicles, coal mining, and industrial metals indices led the gains, while PEEK materials, general equipment, aquatic products, industrial mother machines, and industrial software indices led the losses. The futures settlement funds of the CSI 1000, CSI 300, and Shanghai 50 indices had net outflows of 900 million, 500 million, and 100 million yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The central bank will support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, private small and micro - enterprises, and foreign trade stability, and improve the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy [1] - On May 20, China and ASEAN announced the full completion of the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [1] - Due to the rush - out effect in the sprint window period, shipping companies have raised prices. The quotation for 40 - foot containers (FEU) on the Shanghai - US West Line in mid - June has reached $9100, more than three times the average price of about $2250 at the beginning of May [1] - Dalio said that inappropriate interest - rate cuts would have a negative impact on the bond market, leading to higher long - term interest rates, a weaker US dollar, and a rising gold price [1] - The annual inflation rate in the UK in April reached 3.5%, higher than analysts' expectations [1] - The Japanese bond market had no bids for the second consecutive day, and the yields of 30 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds reached record highs, with the 20 - year government bond yield reaching 2.57%, the highest since October 2000 [1] - The St. Louis Fed President pointed out that the Fed needs to prevent the rise of inflation expectations [1] - COT data shows that there has been large - scale short - selling in the US stock market, reaching $11.1 billion, with hedge funds as the main short - sellers. The cumulative short - selling amount of hedge funds in the last three COT reports reached $25 billion, the largest in at least a decade [2] - The open - interest data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) confirms that a large number of positions are betting that the 10 - year Treasury yield will rise to 5% in the coming weeks [2] - Institutions predict that the tax - cut bill will increase public debt by at least $3.3 trillion by the end of 2034, raising the debt - to - GDP ratio from the current 100% to a record 125% [2] - Multiple US officials said that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, which may trigger a wider regional conflict in the Middle East [2] Market Logic - On Wednesday, the value - related indices of the two markets continued to strengthen, and the reduction of deposit rates was still positive for the market. The six major banks lowered RMB deposit rates. The three - month, six - month, one - year, and two - year fixed - deposit rates were all cut by 15 basis points to 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively; the three - year and five - year rates were cut by 25 basis points to 1.25% and 1.3% respectively. The one - year deposit rate falling below 1% is expected to drive household savings and insurance funds into the stock market, and free - cash - flow ETFs strengthened collectively [1][2] Future Outlook - The value - related indices of the two markets continued to strengthen on Wednesday, and the reduction of deposit rates continued to be positive for the market. In 2024, A - share listed companies paid a total of 2.4 trillion yuan in dividends and repurchased shares worth 147.6 billion yuan, both hitting record highs, and the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index was close to 3.6%. The one - year deposit rate cut to 0.95% is expected to accelerate the transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market. Free - cash - flow ETFs and dividend - based ETFs are expected to benefit the most. The global re - allocation of financial assets will drive overseas institutional funds to pour into the A - share market. The market is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading: With the one - year deposit rate falling below 1%, household savings and insurance funds are expected to flow into the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored [2] - For stock index option trading: The market is in a consolidation phase to repair technical indicators. It is recommended to suspend far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [2]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.75%, S&P 500 futures down 0.50%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.51% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.10%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.01%, France's CAC40 down 0.54%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.37% [2] - WTI crude oil is up 0.74% at $62.49 per barrel, while Brent crude is up 0.67% at $65.82 per barrel [2] Currency and Economic Sentiment - There is a rising expectation of US dollar depreciation, with the Bloomberg dollar index's one-year risk reversal indicator showing a negative 27 basis points, indicating the lowest level on record [3] - Morgan Stanley suggests buying US assets excluding the dollar, predicting a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that could support the bond market and boost corporate earnings [3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - Federal Reserve officials warn that the impact of tariffs will soon be fully realized, potentially leading to a new wave of price increases in the US economy [4] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicates that many companies' buffer strategies against high tariffs are running out, which could weaken overall economic activity [4] Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - JPMorgan's CEO warns of "extreme complacency" among investors, suggesting that the market may soon face turbulence [5] - Goldman Sachs reports that clients are increasingly seeking to withdraw funds from the US market, questioning whether the US stock market's rally has reached its peak [6] Company Performance Highlights - Lowe's reported same-store sales down 1.7% but expects this key sales metric to remain flat or grow up to 1% for the year [7] - ZTO Express achieved a 19.1% year-on-year increase in package volume, with net profit up 40.9% [7] - Baidu's Q1 net profit increased by 41.65% year-on-year, reaching 77.17 billion yuan [8] - XPeng Motors reported a net loss of 660 million yuan, a 51.5% decrease year-on-year, with total revenue up 141.5% [8] - Weibo's Q1 net profit grew by 116.36% year-on-year, reaching $107 million [9] - Target's Q1 performance fell short of expectations, leading to a downward revision of sales forecasts [10] - Full Truck Alliance reported a 19% year-on-year increase in revenue, with significant growth in operational metrics [11] - iQIYI's Q1 revenue reached 71.9 billion yuan, with a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase [12] - Xinyi Technology reported a Q1 revenue of 34.81 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.38 billion yuan [12] - Tuya Smart's Q1 revenue grew by approximately 21.1%, exceeding expectations [12]

Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding economic policy is exceptionally high according to the Federal Reserve's Musalem [1] - Even after the trade situation eased on May 12, tariffs may still lead to a weakening labor market and rising prices in the U.S. [1]

据日本农林水产省公布的数据，截至19日，日本大米价格已经历连续十多周上涨，较去年同期高出大约 1倍。日本民众表示，大米涨价给日常饮食造成了直接冲击，不少人甚至减少米饭摄入。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：随着物价上涨，政策制定者、家庭和企业面临的选择发生了变化，这将影响经济的走 向。 ...

日本央行副行长内田真一：担心近期物价上涨对消费产生负面影响。 ...

日本内阁府发布的初步统计结果显示，经季节调整后，日本2025年一季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）环 比下降0.2%，按年率计算下降0.7%。这是日本经济时隔一年再次出现负增长。 此外，美国的关税政策也对日本国内的消费心理和企业的盈利预期产生潜在影响。虽然这种情况尚未在 一季度经济数据中体现，但后续对经济前景的悲观情绪，已在一季度的经济表现中隐约可见。 目前，日本和美国就关税问题展开谈判，但双方谈判前景并不明朗。如果汽车关税持续存在，日本经济 在二季度后将面临巨大下行压力，这也会影响国际市场对日本经济前景的信心，不利于日本企业发展和 经济复苏。 日美关税谈判的核心聚焦于汽车关税问题。汽车制造业是日本支柱产业，占其制造业产值50%，行业上 下游就业人口达558万，且美国是日本汽车最大海外市场，日本对美汽车及零部件出口约占对美出口总 额30%。若美国对汽车及零部件加征25%关税，日本车企年利润将缩水近300亿美元，丰田、日产等头 部企业利润会暴跌，同时还会波及汽车零部件供应商、原材料物流等庞大上下游产业链。 北京商报综合报道 16日，日本东京，人们在购物中心内。 分析指出，导致一季度日本经济低迷主要有两方面的原因。其 ...

美国财政部副部长：对持续上涨的物价不担忧。 ...