昨晚，有一封名为《敦促超短选手投降书》的劝降信在投资圈传播。达哥摘取其中一段供大家阅读： 超短选手们，你们已被趋势碾压三月有余，账户浮亏如山堆积，而市场趋势主力已突破关键压力位，兵 锋直指前高。你们却仍妄图以"龙头战法"为矛、"情绪周期"为盾，在连板股上负隅顽抗。须知今日之A 股，非复当年游资横行之江湖！量化收割如秋风扫叶，机构抱团似铁壁合围，而你们——或困于"核按 钮"连环闪崩，或溺于"冲天炮"战法不能自拔，甚至幻想用"地天板大长腿"之术扭转乾坤。此等战法， 岂非以卵击石？ 该劝降信末尾对超短选手呼吁：立即放下"打板执念"，终止"情绪博弈"，向价值投资投降！或转战银行 波段，或皈依CPO价投，犹可享受趋势牛市主升浪。 看到这封劝降信，达哥没有感到惊讶。前几天，投资圈才传出有关银行股的劝降信，一句"我们是斗不 过银行股的"传播甚广。如今，又有了对超短选手的劝降信，让人不得不思考为何会如此。 在达哥看来，背景是连板高度及短线投机情绪被抑制，而趋势行情却在不断新高。 观察市场发现，一些游资开始加入到趋势股的行列中，典型的如CPO、PCB、人形机器人等板块。 由于这些板块都是机构重仓的赛道或板块，游资短期进去薅下机 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market has reached a relatively high historical level in terms of index and valuation. However, currently, the remaining term of outstanding convertible bonds has shortened, the space for new bond issuance is limited, and issuers have a strong tendency to force redemption, putting pressure on the price ceiling of convertible bonds. If the supply of new bonds continues to shrink, there may be a risk of capital withdrawal on the demand side, which will also affect the high valuation of convertible bonds. On the positive side, the equity market is expected to continue its upward trend this year, and the small - cap style is likely to remain dominant, which is beneficial to the convertible bond market [34]. - It is recommended to focus on clause games based on the remaining term and performance and financial pressure. Low - priced and weakly - qualified convertible bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. It is also advisable to follow the underlying stocks and pay attention to industries with improved supply - demand patterns and expected performance recovery, as well as individual bonds in these industries [34]. - In the short - term, the stock market is expected to see a weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market. The issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high, but attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. Clause - wise, it is recommended to continue to focus on the game space of downward revisions and be vigilant against forced redemption risks, and also pay appropriate attention to short - term game opportunities for near - maturity convertible bonds [35]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. 1. 转债周度专题与展望 (Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook) 1.1. 对比 2021，转债何去？ (Comparing with 2021, Where Are Convertible Bonds Heading?) - As of this Friday, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 4,508.48 points, reaching a 10 - year high. The median price of convertible bonds exceeded 125.82 yuan. This year, the index has risen by 8.75%, outperforming the Wind All - A Index. In 2021, the convertible bond market also outperformed the equity market, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index rising by 18.48% and 9.17% respectively [11]. - In 2021, the outperformance of convertible bonds was due to three main factors: at the underlying stock level, the small - cap stocks led the rise in the equity market, and convertible bonds corresponding to small - cap stocks in dominant industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and cyclical industries had a structural advantage; at the valuation level, positive expectations for the equity market and high new - bond subscription returns boosted market enthusiasm, and institutional investors increased their positions in convertible bonds, leading to an overall upward shift in the valuation center; at the clause level, during the equity market correction in Q1 2021, some convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, enhancing investors' confidence in the price - repair function of the downward - revision clause. Later, high - quality convertible bonds announced no early redemption after triggering forced redemption, removing the "invisible ceiling" for bond prices [13][28]. - Currently, the convertible bond market is facing price - ceiling pressure due to issuers' strong tendency to force redemption. If new - bond supply shrinks, there may be a risk of capital withdrawal on the demand side. However, the upward trend of the equity market and the dominance of the small - cap style are beneficial to the convertible bond market. It is recommended to focus on clause games and consider low - priced and weakly - qualified convertible bonds, and also follow the underlying stocks and pay attention to industries with improved supply - demand patterns and expected performance recovery [34]. 1.2. 周度回顾与市场展望 (Weekly Review and Market Outlook) - This week, the market showed a strong upward trend, breaking key points. The "anti - involution" sectors were popular. Different days of the week had different market performances, with various sectors leading the rise or fall on different days [35]. - For the stock market, the current valuation of the A - share market has recovered. Policies such as large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. For convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the issuance pressure is not expected to be high. The return of incremental funds has driven the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. It is also recommended to focus on the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against forced redemption risks, and pay appropriate attention to short - term game opportunities for near - maturity convertible bonds [35]. - Industries to focus on include popular themes such as AI computing power, humanoid robots, intelligent driving, low - altitude economy, data elements, and satellite Internet of Things; low - level science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and innovative drugs; sectors with expected recovery in domestic demand such as real estate, chemicals, and consumer electronics; and high - dividend sectors such as central state - owned enterprises, "Belt and Road" - related themes, and public utilities, petrochemicals, and precious metals [36]. 3.2. 2. 转债市场周度跟踪 (Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market) 2.1. 权益市场收涨，地产钢铁非银领涨 (The Equity Market Closed Higher, with Real Estate, Steel, and Non - Banking Financial Sectors Leading the Rise) - This week, major equity market indices closed higher. The market style was more inclined towards small - cap value. Among the Shenwan industries, 27 industries' indices rose, and 4 industries fell. Real estate, steel, and non - banking financial industries led the rise, while coal, banking, and the automobile industry were among the top decliners [41][44]. 2.2. 转债市场大涨，百元溢价率微降 (The Convertible Bond Market Rose Sharply, and the 100 - yuan Premium Rate Slightly Declined) - This week, the convertible bond market closed higher. The average daily trading volume increased. Among industries, 28 industries' convertible bonds rose, and only the banking convertible bonds fell. Most individual convertible bonds rose. The price median of convertible bonds increased, and the number of low - priced convertible bonds decreased. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [46][53][55]. 2.3. 不同类型转债高频跟踪 (High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds) 2.3.1. 分类估值变化 (Changes in Classified Valuations) - This week, the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds significantly increased. The valuations of convertible bonds with par values in the ranges of 0 - 80 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, and 100 - 110 yuan decreased, while those of other par - value convertible bonds increased, especially those in the 80 - 90 yuan and 110 - 120 yuan ranges. The valuations of convertible bonds in most rating categories and size segments decreased. Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from their lows [63]. 2.3.2. 市场指数表现 (Market Index Performance) - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline attributes and greater rebound strength compared to high - rated ones. This week, convertible bonds of all sizes rose. Since 2023, small - cap and small - to - medium - cap convertible bonds have achieved relatively high returns [73][75]. 3.3. 3. 转债供给与条款跟踪 (Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Clauses) 3.1. 本周一级预案发行 (This Week's Primary Issuance Plans) - This week, 2 new convertible bonds were listed, and 5 were issued but not yet listed. The first - day closing prices and conversion premium rates of the newly - listed bonds were reported. Five convertible bonds passed the primary approval this week, with a total of 3 bonds being accepted by the exchange. From the beginning of 2023 to July 11, 2025, there were 86 convertible bond issuance plans in total, with a total scale of 137.972 billion yuan [79][80]. 3.2. 下修&赎回条款 (Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses) - This week, 6 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 13 announced no downward revisions, and 2 actually had downward revisions. Also, 8 convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemption, 3 announced no early redemption, and 4 announced early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were in the put - option subscription period, and 23 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement subscription period [84][88][90].

Core Viewpoint - The China Convertible Bond Index has reached a ten-year high, leading to strong performance in related convertible bond funds, with over ten thematic funds achieving a net value growth rate exceeding 10% this year, the highest being 13.42% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 11, the China Convertible Bond Index peaked at 452.27 points, marking an 8.75% increase year-to-date [3]. - Several convertible bond funds have shown impressive performance, with the top fund, China Europe Convertible Bond A, achieving a 13.42% growth rate this year [3]. - Convertible bond ETFs have also performed well, with the Bosera China Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF returning 8.58% year-to-date, and the Hai Fu Tong Shanghai Investment Grade Convertible Bond ETF at 6.71% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market environment has favored active management funds, allowing them to capture excess returns by exploiting industry cycle opportunities and the characteristics of convertible bonds [1][3]. - The demand for "fixed income plus" products has surged due to the challenges in obtaining capital gains from pure debt assets, coupled with a low-interest-rate environment [4]. - The strong performance of the banking sector has contributed to the rise in convertible bond indices, as a significant portion of convertible bonds are linked to small and mid-cap stocks [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers suggest focusing on sectors such as technology, dividends, and domestic demand for the second half of the year, with a "technology + dividend + domestic demand" strategy [6][7]. - Key areas of interest include AI glasses, semiconductors, automotive parts, and robotics, which are expected to see growth due to strong market catalysts [6][7]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while convertible bond valuations may not continue to rise, there are still ample opportunities in sector-specific and small-cap convertible bonds [7][8].

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market showed a differentiated pattern amidst internal and external disturbances, with the total A-share index rising by 5.83% [2][3]. - Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed, with the North Securities 50 index increasing by 39.45% and the Micro Index by 36.41% [2]. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the industry gains with an 18.12% increase, followed by banking at 13.10% and national defense and military industry at 12.99% [5]. - The AI industry chain experienced a resonance due to breakthroughs in DeepSeek technology, with high-dividend sectors like banking and technology growth sectors forming the core market lines [5]. Future Outlook - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on three main lines: technology self-sufficiency, new consumption, and supply-side clearing [8][20]. - The technology self-sufficiency line is driven by external pressures, such as tariffs and technology blockades, which are pushing domestic industries to upgrade [8]. - The new consumption line is characterized by the rise of Generation Z, shifting consumer focus from product price to experience [13][16]. - Supply-side clearing is seen as crucial for economic recovery, with sectors like industrial metals, lithium batteries, and innovative pharmaceuticals expected to benefit [20]. Key Trends - In the AI and semiconductor sectors, the commercial application of AI models is driving demand for computing power, benefiting domestic GPU and server supply chains [12]. - The new energy sector is witnessing rapid advancements in technologies like TOPCon batteries and 800V electric drive systems, leading to improved profitability for leading companies [12]. - Generation Z's consumption behavior is marked by a focus on emotional value, with trends such as experiential services and the rise of domestic brands gaining traction [18].

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a collective adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22%, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index declining even more significantly [3] - Despite the index declines, trading volume remained high at 1.6 trillion, indicating active market participation [3] - Over 3,600 stocks fell, highlighting a notable loss effect in the market [3] Sector Highlights Military Industry - The military sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Beifang Navigation and Construction Industry hitting the daily limit [3] - Key drivers include rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which could increase demand for military supplies [3] - Expectations of asset injections from the Weapons Equipment Group and a 7.2% increase in military spending for the "14th Five-Year Plan" further support the sector's growth [3] Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism and hotel sector surged in the afternoon, driven by the upcoming summer travel season and government policies stimulating consumption [4] - There is considerable internal variance within the sector, with some companies like Changbai Mountain performing well due to seasonal demand, while others struggle [4] Digital Currency and Cross-Border Payment - Digital currency and cross-border payment concepts remained active, with significant developments in the interconnectivity of payment systems between mainland China and Hong Kong [4] - Major companies like Ant Group and JD.com are applying for licenses, indicating positive industry momentum [4] - Companies such as Zhongke Jincai and Hengsheng Electronics are gaining attention from institutional investors due to their technological advancements in digital currency [4] Banking Sector - The banking sector showed strong performance, with several city commercial banks reaching historical highs [5] - This growth is attributed to supportive policies and an average dividend yield of nearly 4%, which is attractive in the current asset environment [5] - The low valuation of bank stocks presents significant recovery potential, particularly in economically active regions [5] Oil and Gas - Oil and gas stocks rebounded sharply, with companies like Zhun Oil hitting the daily limit due to rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions [6] - The potential for oil price fluctuations due to international political dynamics necessitates careful monitoring [6] Underperforming Sectors Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector faced significant adjustments, likely due to profit-taking after previous gains [6] - Long-term support from national policies suggests that this sector still holds potential for future growth [6] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector declined, influenced by setbacks in the photolithography machine segment and a shift in market sentiment towards defensive stocks [6] - The long-term narrative for semiconductors remains intact, with expectations for recovery as market conditions improve [6] Overall Market Sentiment - Despite the index declines, structural opportunities persist, particularly in digital currency, cross-border payments, and military sectors [7] - Long-term investors are encouraged to focus on high dividend bank stocks, policy-supported innovative pharmaceuticals, and the semiconductor sector's domestic alternatives [7] - The current market adjustment period is viewed as an opportune time to invest in quality assets, with patience being key to achieving favorable outcomes [7]

Group 1 - The big data industry continues to show activity, with companies like Aofei Data and Kehua Data rising over 5% [1] - The big data industry ETF (516700) is actively trading, with a morning increase of 1.02%, aiming for a third consecutive day of gains [1] - The People's Bank of China plans to develop a new stage financial technology development plan to enhance financial digitalization and intelligence [3] Group 2 - CITIC Construction Investment Securities notes that the domestic third-party payment industry is experiencing a continuous improvement in industry prosperity due to supply-side clearing and demand-side warming [4] - The payment sector is expected to see new growth points from service expansion and infrastructure development, particularly in cross-border payment systems [4] - The "golden triangle" of the Xinchuang industry is being built through policy support, AI empowerment, and the urgent need for domestic alternatives [4] Group 3 - The big data industry ETF (516700) tracks the CSI Big Data Industry Index, focusing on sectors like data centers and cloud computing [6] - Investors interested in technology self-reliance should pay attention to three catalysts: high-level calls for technology leadership, the activation of digital productivity, and the acceleration of the Xinchuang 2.0 wave [7] - The Xinchuang ETF (562030) covers core segments of the Xinchuang industry chain, including hardware, software, and information security, and is characterized by high growth and elasticity [7]

Market Outlook and ETF Strategy - Current market expectations are weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a narrow fluctuation after a rebound, primarily due to ongoing US-China tensions, escalating geopolitical uncertainties, and a lack of new narratives to catalyze market movements [2] - The strategy suggests a return to a broad technology focus while avoiding sectors with low earnings visibility, especially as companies prepare to disclose mid-year earnings forecasts [2] - The report highlights a historical low win rate for dividend stocks in June, suggesting a potential pullback risk after dividend distributions [2] Industry Trends and ETF Recommendations - Short-term opportunities are expected to revolve around specific segments within the technology growth sector, emphasizing the importance of timing in capitalizing on market rotations [3] - Recommendations include focusing on the AI industry chain, both upstream and downstream, with specific attention to: 1. Upstream AI infrastructure, including high demand for AI computing power and semiconductor sectors, suggesting an increase in allocation to 5G communication and semiconductor ETFs [3] 2. Downstream consumer electronics, where valuations are at historical lows, and the gaming sector is expected to benefit from stable licensing and AI technology integration [3] 3. The defense sector, particularly aerospace, is highlighted due to potential growth opportunities amid geopolitical tensions [3] ETF Strategy Composition - The report lists a selection of ETFs recommended for investment, including: - E Fund CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF with a scale of 81.5 billion [4] - Harvest CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF with a scale of 22.7 billion [4] - Harvest CSI 5G Communication Theme ETF with a scale of 67.4 billion [4] - Other ETFs focusing on AI, consumer electronics, and military sectors are also included in the strategy [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights the importance of balancing stock and bond markets during the initial phase of economic recovery, with a focus on policy-driven factors and external shocks [6][51]. - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations driven by policy dynamics, external impacts, and economic data divergence, with a continued likelihood of interest rate cuts [51][52]. - The equity market is anticipated to benefit from ongoing policy support, improved liquidity, and a gradual economic recovery, leading to a dynamic interplay between growth and value stocks [7][59]. Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on three main industry themes for the second half of 2025: technology self-sufficiency, domestic consumption stimulation, and dividend assets [8]. - The technology sector, particularly in communications, electronics, and artificial intelligence, is positioned for growth due to increased capital expenditure and inventory replenishment [8][19]. - The consumer sector, including food and beverage, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, is expected to see investment opportunities driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][43]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the domestic economic environment is gradually improving, with GDP growth increasing from 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024 to 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025 [6][19]. - The retail sales of consumer goods showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5% from January to May 2025, with a notable increase in May to 6.4%, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment [19][20]. - Fixed asset investment growth has also shown a slight increase, reflecting a stable investment environment, although real estate investment remains under pressure with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.7% [19][20].

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with mixed performance across the three major indices, where the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3402.66, up by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% to 10234.33 [1][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.27 trillion, an increase of 163 billion compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Nonferrous Metals (up 1.40%), Media (up 1.33%), and Beauty Care (up 1.31%), while the underperforming sectors were Household Appliances (down 1.77%), Coal (down 1.14%), and Food & Beverage (down 1.13%) [2] - Concept indices showed strong performance in Hair Medical (up 2.02%), IP Economy (up 1.81%), and Quantum Technology (up 1.72%), while the weakest performers included the China-South Korea Free Trade Zone (down 1.52%) and Pork (down 1.11%) [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a basic pattern of fluctuating upward movement, with a focus on sectors such as technology self-sufficiency and consumption upgrades, as well as large financials and restructuring concepts favored by state-owned enterprises [5] - Key upcoming events, including the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, are anticipated to provide support for the current structural market [5] Policy and Economic Indicators - The National Development and Reform Commission supports eligible Hong Kong-listed companies to issue depositary receipts on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which may enhance market liquidity [4] - The U.S. inflation data for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.8%, slightly below forecasts, indicating potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [4]

其 他 报 告 2025年06月09日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3385 | 0.04 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10184 | -0.19 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3874 | -0.09 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2039 | -0.45 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.03 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6915 | 0.00 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23793 | -0.48 | 2.16 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8630 | -0.63 | 2.34 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21661 | -0.06 | 1.47 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42763 | 1.0 ...