智通财经6月12日电，欧洲央行的GUINDOS表示，央行的担忧已从通胀转向经济增长放缓。 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行的关注重点已从通胀转向经济增长放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's latest report indicates that the default rate for high-risk U.S. companies is expected to rise slightly by 2026 due to economic slowdown and rising interest rates, particularly among speculative-grade firms [1][4]. Economic Environment - The tightening global monetary environment is a contributing factor to this trend, with the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield likely to exceed nominal GDP growth for the first time since 2011, increasing corporate financing costs [4]. - The probability of a recession in the U.S. economy is currently estimated at around 30%, highlighting significant risks to economic growth [4]. Corporate Financing Challenges - The tightening of loan standards by U.S. banks adds another layer of burden for companies, exacerbating the default risk amid economic slowdown and rising interest rates [6]. - Companies that rely heavily on high leverage and high-yield debt will face more severe challenges in the coming years [6]. Overall Economic Outlook - Despite potential growth in certain sectors, the overall economic environment in the U.S. remains uncertain, with factors such as slowing economic growth and rising financing costs likely preventing a decrease in corporate default rates by 2026 [6]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to carefully assess the debt risks of high-risk companies and prepare for potential default events in the future [6].

Core Viewpoint - OECD predicts a slowdown in US growth rate to 1.6% by 2025, down by 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - OECD forecasts global growth rate at 2.9% for 2025, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - The impact of tariffs has led to significant slowdowns in trade and investment, particularly in the US, where inflation and growth deceleration are expected to persist [1] Group 2: US Economic Impact - The average tariff rate on imported goods in the US has risen to over 15%, the highest level since 1938, contributing to increased domestic prices [1] - The inflation rate in the US is projected to rise to 3.2%, reflecting the effects of higher tariffs on consumer prices and purchasing power [1] Group 3: Regional Economic Projections - Countries closely linked to the US economy, such as Canada, Mexico, and Japan, are expected to face economic downturns, with Japan's growth rate projected to drop to 0.7% in 2025 [2] - China's growth outlook has been slightly adjusted, with consumption slowdown and real estate market adjustments being key factors, although government stimulus is expected to provide support [2] - The Eurozone is anticipated to maintain stable growth, with regional demand offsetting tariff impacts, supported by investments in defense and infrastructure [2]

Group 1 - The CBO report indicates that Trump's global tariff plan will reduce the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years, but will simultaneously slow economic growth, increase inflation, and weaken household purchasing power [1] - The report predicts that tariffs will lead to an average annual inflation rate increase of 0.4 percentage points from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The CBO's analysis assumes that the tariff policies announced by the Trump administration will be implemented long-term, despite previous court rulings questioning the legality of these tariffs [1] Group 2 - The CBO concludes that the $2.8 trillion deficit reduction will come at the cost of reduced household wealth and a contraction in the overall economy, estimating a permanent decrease in the annual GDP growth rate of 0.06 percentage points [1] - The OECD's global economic outlook report predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.5% by 2026 [2] - The CBO emphasizes significant uncertainty in its estimates due to the potential for the Trump administration to adjust tariff policies at any time [2]

Group 1 - U.S. corporate hiring activity has slowed to its lowest level in nearly two years, with job cuts observed in sectors such as business services, education, and healthcare, indicating a continued weakening in labor demand [1][2] - According to ADP Research, private sector employment increased by only 37,000 jobs last month, falling short of all economists' predictions in a survey, marking the second consecutive month of significant underperformance [1][2] - The current job market is under dual pressure: a noticeable slowdown in hiring speed and an extended time for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, with economists expecting more signs of cooling in the labor market in the coming months [2][3] Group 2 - Following the data release, stock index futures and U.S. Treasury yields fell, while President Trump reiterated calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates in response to the current situation [3][4] - Despite the hiring slowdown, wage growth remains strong, with a 7% increase for job switchers and a 4.5% increase for retained employees, according to the ADP report, which covers over 25 million U.S. private sector employees [4] - The upcoming U.S. government employment report for May is expected to show a slowdown in non-farm employment growth compared to the strong performance in April, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable [4]

日本央行行长植田和男：尽管经济增长放缓，但日本可能仍将维持工资与物价同步上涨的机制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US Dollar Index will decline by approximately 9% from its current level by mid-next year, influenced by interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a significant depreciation of the US Dollar Index, reflecting broader economic trends [1] - The prediction is based on the anticipated impact of interest rate cuts on the currency's value [1] - Slowing economic growth is identified as a contributing factor to the expected decline in the dollar's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar will decline to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year, influenced by interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a significant depreciation of the dollar, reflecting broader economic trends [1] - The anticipated decline is linked to monetary policy adjustments, particularly interest rate reductions [1] - Economic growth slowdown is identified as a contributing factor to the dollar's weakening [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently facing significant challenges as prices have fallen below $3,200 per ounce, but some analysts remain optimistic about its future potential in the complex economic environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices have recently dropped significantly, reaching a five-week low due to improved market sentiment following trade negotiations between major economies [3][4]. - The U.S. government's announcement to reduce tariffs on imports from Asian countries within 90 days has led to a shift in investor risk appetite, moving funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets [3][4]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - George Milling-Stanley, Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, maintains a bullish outlook on gold despite short-term price fluctuations, citing ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation risks [3][4]. - The dollar index has risen above 100, but its volatility indicates a lack of strong market confidence in the dollar, which could benefit gold prices [4]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year, may create favorable conditions for gold as inflation rises and economic growth slows [4][5]. - There is growing concern among investors about a possible recession in the U.S., which reinforces the demand for gold as a protective asset against economic instability [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The unique protective attributes of gold, such as its role in hedging against high inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to continue attracting investors, providing solid support for its price [5][6]. - As uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape persist, gold is anticipated to regain upward momentum, showcasing its significant upside potential [6].