Core Viewpoint - The increase of tariffs on Indian goods to 50% by the U.S. is expected to significantly impact India's economic growth, reducing the forecast from 7% to nearly 6% for 2025 and 2026 [1] Economic Impact - Higher tariffs are anticipated to lead to a substantial decline in exports from India [1] - The potential implementation of an additional 25% tariff could severely undermine India's attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub [1] Global Oil Market - If India responds by reducing its purchases from Russia, there may be an increase in global oil prices [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continued purchase of Russian energy, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1] - Following the announcement, the iShares MSCI India ETF dropped to an intraday low, while oil prices increased, and the Indian Rupee stabilized at 87.91 against the U.S. dollar [1] - This tariff increase is part of Trump's strategy to reduce trade deficits, revitalize domestic manufacturing, and increase federal revenue, which poses risks to the global economy, including rising costs and potential supply chain disruptions [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating an 87% probability following a weak employment report [2] - The dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by Trump has further heightened policy uncertainty [2] - Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is expected to perform strongly in the context of increased political and economic uncertainty and a low-interest-rate environment [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are projected to have room for growth, with a short-term target of $3,400, supported by ongoing tariff tensions, economic slowdown, and inflation concerns, as well as a weak dollar [3] Group 4 - The daily direction for gold (XAUUSD) is showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 3384, 3362, and 3410, and support levels at 3373, 3357, and 3344 [4] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [4] Group 5 - The daily direction for the Euro against the U.S. dollar (EURUSD) is also showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1692, 1.1731, and 1.1795, and support levels at 1.1637, 1.1590, and 1.1552 [5] - The momentum for EURUSD is moderate, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [5]

Group 1 - Developed and emerging markets experienced a simultaneous decline, with both down by 2.5% during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025 [1][10] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 4.9%, while the Hang Seng Index decreased by 3.5% [1] - The healthcare sector led the industry performance, indicating potential resilience in this area amidst broader market declines [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market faced pressure from economic slowdown, with the Dow Jones down 2.9%, S&P 500 down 2.4%, and Nasdaq down 2.2% [2][4] - Non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, well below expectations of 104,000 [2][21] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July, indicating contraction, as it remained below the neutral level for five consecutive months [2][27] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but faced internal dissent, with two members voting against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][19] - The reintroduction of tariffs under the Trump administration has created a dual structure, with varying rates applied to different countries, impacting market sentiment [3][19] Group 4 - Short-term outlook for U.S. stocks suggests a period of adjustment due to economic data showing weakness, particularly in employment and manufacturing [4][5] - Historical trends indicate that August is typically a weak month for U.S. stocks, often leading to corrections post-earnings season [4] - The S&P 500's market breadth has declined to 55%, reflecting a decrease in overall market participation [5][30] Group 5 - Gold ETFs saw mixed inflows, with significant increases in certain funds like Huaan Yifu Gold ETF (+$223 million) and Invesco Physical Gold ETC (+$195 million) [6][34] - Institutional investors slightly reduced their gold holdings, while retail investors increased theirs, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold [6][34] Group 6 - Global stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of $29.579 billion, with the U.S. leading at $19.55 billion, while Chinese stock ETFs saw a significant outflow of $5 billion [7][44] - The technology, financial, and communication sectors saw the highest net inflows, while healthcare, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors faced outflows [7][46]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams anticipates a slowdown in economic growth to approximately 1% this year [1] Economic Outlook - The expected economic growth rate for this year is around 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that delaying action could lead to a deterioration in the labor market and further slowdown in economic growth [1] Group 1 - The potential risks of inaction include worsening labor market conditions [1] - Economic growth may further decelerate if timely measures are not implemented [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：经济增长放缓、潜在通胀停滞的央行展望没有重大变化。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lead inventories are increasing, putting pressure on prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.06%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,020 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 37,318 lots, a decrease of 10,660 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,047 lots, a decrease of 1,220 lots [1] - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 66,741 lots, an increase of 2,207 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 142,798 lots, a decrease of 153 lots [1] - The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -31.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.49 dollars/ton [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -755.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.29 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -689.99 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/ton [1] - The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,934 tons, an increase of 1,002 tons; the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons [1] - The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 71,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 News - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed. Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2] - Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, referring to India as a major buyer of Russian energy. Trump announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, and South Korea will provide the US with $350 billion in investment, which will be owned and controlled by the US. Trump signed an executive order to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil [2] - In 2024, CMOC added 1.5145 million tons of lead, zinc, and copper metal resources and 24 tons of gold [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that indicators show a slowdown in economic growth [1] Economic Indicators - Recent data suggests a deceleration in economic activity, which may impact future monetary policy decisions [1] - The labor market remains strong, but there are signs of cooling in consumer spending and business investment [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its approach to interest rates in response to the changing economic landscape [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of monitoring economic indicators closely to inform future policy actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement indicates a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of this year [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth has decelerated in the first half of the year, suggesting potential challenges for various sectors [1] Implications for Investment - The slowdown in economic growth may impact investment strategies and market sentiment, leading to a reassessment of risk and opportunity across industries [1]

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 7月28日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 774.78 | -0.33% | 256019 | 209675 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，7月28日上海黄金现货价格报价770.19元/克，相较于期货主力价格（774.78元/克）贴水4.59 元/克。 尽管年初有关关税可能引发通胀和经济放缓的担忧甚嚣尘上，美国经济却展现出惊人的韧性。消费者物 价涨幅温和，劳动力市场虽有放缓迹象，但尚未出现大幅恶化。经济学家普遍认为，只要劳动力市场保 持稳定，消费支出就不会显著下滑，从而支撑经济增长。然而，私营部门就业增长已降至八个月低点， 招聘活动放缓，大学毕业生就业难度加大，这些信号表明经济并非毫无瑕疵。 6月份，美国同比通胀率因关税影响略有上升，而一篮子领先经济指标显示，下半年经济增长可能放 缓。考克斯指出，当前市场对就业市场放缓的乐观情绪令人费解。她警告称，一旦就业市场显著恶化， 消费支出可能受到抑制，进而拖累经济增长。这种背景下， ...