黄金（XAUUSD）继续走高，屡创新高，地缘政治紧张局势和政策不确定性刺激了避险需求。美委冲突、喜忧参半的经济数据以及美联储降息预期上升共 同营造了利好环境。与此同时，强劲的技术突破也证实了看涨势头。IC平台认为这些因素表明黄金短期内有望继续上涨。 地缘政治风险和美联储鸽派前景推动黄金涨势延续 受地缘政治紧张局势和避险需求的推动，黄金继续上涨。美国和委内瑞拉之间的冲突持续升级。委内瑞拉议会通过了一项法律，将干预商业活动（包括扣押 油轮）定为犯罪。此举是对美国近期针对委内瑞拉石油出口采取的行动的直接回应。局势升级震动了市场，并提振了资金流向黄金等避险资产。 与此同时，美国经济指标喜忧参半。第三季度GDP数据好于预期，年化增长率为4.3%，高于3.3%的预期。然而，消费者信心依然疲软。美国经济咨商局的 消费者信心指数12月份降至89.1，低于11月份的92.9。总体增长与消费者前景之间的这种脱节增加了宏观经济前景的不确定性，从而提升了黄金的吸引力。 市场对宽松政策的预期也有所增强。市场参与者目前预计美联储将在2026年多次降息。通胀放缓和就业增长疲软是主要驱动因素。在政治方面，特朗普总统 表示，他选择的下一任美联 ...

下图黄金走势清晰呈现出近期价格运行的上升通道形态。经历急剧上涨后，金价虽出现回调，但始终在趋势线下方获得支撑。此轮修正形成圆弧底形态，标 志着新一轮更高低点的开启。该形态反映出更广泛上升趋势中的整理阶段，表明基本面趋势持续强劲。 黄金（XAUUSD）在短暂回调后保持稳定，仍徘徊于关键突破区域附近。美联储转向鸽派立场增强了黄金前景。收益率下降及长期低利率预期持续支撑黄 金等无收益资产。与此同时，全球风险与地缘政治紧张局势推升避险需求。因此，IC外汇平台分析研判尽管面临短期阻力，黄金整体上升趋势依然保持完 整。 美联储降息与持续全球不确定性支撑金价 黄金虽出现短暂回调，但仍位于上升趋势中的关键突破区域附近。美联储的鸽派转向在此趋势中发挥了核心支撑作用。上周25个基点的降息是2025年以来的 第三次降息，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示未来将保持宽松立场。这一转变推高了市场对低利率将持续至2026年的预期，支撑了避险需求并降低了持有黄金的机会 成本。随着收益率下降，投资者纷纷转向金属资产，预期货币宽松政策将持续。 此外，地缘政治动向持续影响市场情绪。美国官员周一暗示与乌克兰的和平协议即将达成。尽管核心问题尚未解决，局势缓和的预 ...

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 在周一亚市早盘短暂下跌之后，受市场对本月晚些时候美联储降息预期升温的推动，现货黄金价格飙 升，并在纽约时段早盘创下六周新高。 2. 美联储官员的一系列鸽派言论，以及美国政府停摆后疲软的经济表现，都加剧市场对美联储可能再次 降息的预期 3. 日本央行行长植田和男周一发出了迄今为止最明确的信号，暗示其政策委员会可能很快加息，并强调 日本央行在12月会议上采取行动的可能性。 4. 日本央行的鹰派立场也对黄金构成打击。黄金作为非生息资产，央行收紧货币政策不利于金价。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： 黄金价格依然偏向上行，但央行收紧货币政策，尤其是日本央行行长植田和男发表讲话后日本央行可能 收紧货币政策，以及美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)意见分歧，是金价上涨的主要风险，交易员应该意 识到，白宫主导的俄乌冲突可能出现的解决方案，可能会在市场情绪明显转变的情况下限制金价的上 涨。 FPG特约分析师（chad）观点： 金价在果断突破4200美元/盎司关口后继续上涨，金价有望测试11月13日高点4245美元/盎司，随后将冲 ...

Group 1 - The ADP employment report indicates that 42,000 private sector jobs were added in October, exceeding market expectations of 28,000, suggesting a strong labor market which may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts and keep rates elevated for a longer period [1] - Federal Reserve officials have mixed views on interest rates; while some welcome the strong employment data, others highlight ongoing inflation pressures and signs of labor market weakness [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of President Trump's tariffs, which could lead to the government refunding over $100 billion in tariffs if the ruling is unfavorable, impacting importers and altering trade dynamics [1] Group 2 - Gold prices surged over 1% due to risk aversion despite strong U.S. employment data, as investors are concerned about high stock valuations and uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariffs [2] - The price of gold is currently around $3,929 per ounce, with a critical resistance level at $4,000 per ounce; a breakthrough could lead to further gains, while a drop below $3,886 could trigger selling pressure [3] Group 3 - The EUR/USD pair shows a bullish trend with resistance levels at 1.1516, 1.1525, and 1.1535, while support levels are at 1.1496, 1.1489, and 1.1478 [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering terminating some trade relations with China, including those related to edible oils, as stated by President Trump [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown affecting the Fed's economic assessment [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.029%, while the real yield dropped nearly 3.5 basis points to 1.728%, which is favorable for gold prices [2] Group 2 - FPG analyst Felix believes that gold prices are likely to rise above the $4100 per ounce mark, driven by dovish comments from Powell and increased safe-haven buying due to U.S.-China trade tensions [3] - Technical indicators show that gold remains in a strong upward trend, with the 20-day simple moving average currently at $3863.90 per ounce [3] - Analyst Chad indicates that gold has room for further increases, with support levels at $4123.20, $4090.00, and $4078.10 per ounce, and resistance at $4200.00 per ounce [4] Group 3 - Current market indicators for gold show a bearish daily direction, with resistance levels at 4186, 4200, and 4210, and support levels at 4170, 4161, and 4149 [5] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% [5] - The euro to dollar exchange rate shows a bearish daily direction, with resistance at 1.1628, 1.1657, and 1.1714, and support at 1.1603, 1.1577, and 1.1554 [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The CME's "FedWatch Tool" indicates that investors expect two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with probabilities of 93% in October and 81% in December [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has advocated for aggressive rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction is more appropriate than the previously discussed 25 basis points [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, are scheduled to speak this week, drawing investor attention for clues on future policy direction [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, driven by expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - Analyst Chad predicts gold could reach targets of $3750, $3800, and potentially challenge $3900 and $4000 per ounce, despite current overbought conditions indicated by the RSI [3] - The daily chart for gold shows a bullish trend, with resistance levels at $3763, $3770, and $3781, and support levels at $3747, $3739, and $3726 [4] Group 3: Currency Market Insights - The EUR/USD pair is also showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1827, 1.1854, and 1.1905, and support levels at 1.1786, 1.1746, and 1.1696 [5] - The market is awaiting key economic indicators, including the U.S. current account balance and PMI data, which could influence currency movements [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision led to significant market volatility, with major U.S. stock indices initially rising before sharply declining, and the dollar index hitting a new low since 2025 before rebounding [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the rate cut of 25 basis points was a "risk management" move, suggesting a gradual approach to future rate adjustments [1] - Powell stated that the Fed will make decisions on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis moving forward, indicating a cautious outlook on monetary policy [1] Group 2 - FPG analysts noted that the Fed's uncertainty signals led to profit-taking in gold prices, resulting in a healthy correction or consolidation phase, with a key support level at $3,550 per ounce [2] - Analyst Chad highlighted that gold prices could retest historical highs, with potential upward targets of $3,750 and $3,800 per ounce, despite short-term overbought signals [2] - The first support level for gold is identified at $3,650 per ounce, with further targets at the September 11 low of $3,613 and $3,600 if the price breaks below [2] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias with resistance at $3,671 and support at $3,646, indicating strong momentum [3] - The daily chart for the euro against the dollar (EURUSD) also reflects a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1831, 1.1861, and 1.1886, and support at 1.1771 and 1.1735 [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continued purchase of Russian energy, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1] - Following the announcement, the iShares MSCI India ETF dropped to an intraday low, while oil prices increased, and the Indian Rupee stabilized at 87.91 against the U.S. dollar [1] - This tariff increase is part of Trump's strategy to reduce trade deficits, revitalize domestic manufacturing, and increase federal revenue, which poses risks to the global economy, including rising costs and potential supply chain disruptions [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating an 87% probability following a weak employment report [2] - The dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by Trump has further heightened policy uncertainty [2] - Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is expected to perform strongly in the context of increased political and economic uncertainty and a low-interest-rate environment [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are projected to have room for growth, with a short-term target of $3,400, supported by ongoing tariff tensions, economic slowdown, and inflation concerns, as well as a weak dollar [3] Group 4 - The daily direction for gold (XAUUSD) is showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 3384, 3362, and 3410, and support levels at 3373, 3357, and 3344 [4] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [4] Group 5 - The daily direction for the Euro against the U.S. dollar (EURUSD) is also showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1692, 1.1731, and 1.1795, and support levels at 1.1637, 1.1590, and 1.1552 [5] - The momentum for EURUSD is moderate, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [5]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of a rapid slowdown, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in nine months, significantly below the expected 104,000 [1] - Revisions to previous months' data show a downward adjustment, with May's non-farm payrolls revised down by 125,000 to 19,000 and June's by 133,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined [1] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, matching expectations and up from 4.1% in the previous month [1] - The U.S. Trade Representative indicated that current tariff policies will remain unchanged, with significant tariffs on imports from Canada (35%), Brazil (50%), India (25%), and Switzerland (39%) [1] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have risen from approximately 3267.0 to a peak of 3367.0, marking a $100 increase, with the market showing upward momentum [4] - The moving averages indicate support for gold prices, suggesting a potential buying opportunity around the support level of 3333.0, with resistance levels at 3376.0 and 3392.0 [4] - Silver prices have declined from 39.52 to a low of 36.20, reflecting a bearish trend, with moving averages confirming the downward movement [7] - A selling strategy is recommended for silver, with a focus on the resistance level of 37.18 and potential targets at 36.66 and 36.35 [7]

Group 1 - Gold prices showed signs of recovery after a four-day decline, dropping from approximately $3438/oz to $3301/oz, with momentum indicators suggesting sellers are taking a breather [1][2] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with focus on Chairman Powell's comments regarding potential future rate cuts, which could influence gold prices [1][3] - If Powell opens the door for a rate cut in September, U.S. Treasury yields may drop, potentially boosting gold prices; conversely, if he avoids committing to a rate cut due to rising inflation data, gold prices may decline [3] Group 2 - Current resistance levels for gold are at $3337, $3348, and $3361, while support levels are at $3322, $3312, and $3302 [4] - The daily direction for gold is showing a bullish trend, while the relative strength index (RSI) indicates a bearish outlook, suggesting potential further declines if key levels are breached [2][4]