Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its October meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% with a 99.9% probability according to market expectations [1][3][4] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates a rate cut, but there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy direction due to a lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [3][4] - Analysts expect that the Fed will provide more guidance on future policy directions during the press conference, particularly regarding employment risks and inflation pressures [4][8] Group 2: Economic Data and Labor Market - Recent private sector data indicates a decline in private sector jobs, with ADP reporting a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, reflecting a weakening labor market [4][8] - Despite acknowledging risks in the labor market, some Fed officials express concerns about inflation, with the core CPI rising 3% year-on-year, exceeding the Fed's target by one percentage point [4][9] Group 3: Balance Sheet and Quantitative Tightening - There is speculation that the Fed may announce an end to its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) during this meeting, as recent trends show a decline in bank reserves [10][13] - Major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America have adjusted their forecasts, suggesting that the Fed may halt its asset reduction process due to rising borrowing costs in the dollar financing market [10][15]

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan announcing their interest rate decisions, with expectations of diverging monetary policies [1] - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, with a 97.8% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data [2] - The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their current rates, with the ECB possibly having ended its rate-cutting cycle and the BoJ facing political pressures that may delay normalization [4][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data showed a 3% year-over-year increase in September CPI, which is below market expectations, indicating lower inflationary pressures [2] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a reported decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September, the largest drop since March 2023 [2] - The Japanese economy is experiencing a gradual recovery in inflation, but internal demand and productivity improvements remain insufficient [4] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The divergence in monetary policies among major central banks is impacting the global currency market, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.39% last week [7] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.5% against the U.S. dollar, influenced by expectations of a slower normalization of monetary policy under the new Japanese Prime Minister [7] - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable, with the central parity rate against the U.S. dollar reported at 7.0856, indicating a slight appreciation [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent sharp decline in gold prices is primarily due to two factors: the significant increase in gold prices during the U.S. government shutdown and the easing of geopolitical tensions, which has reduced market risk aversion [1][2] - Gold prices fell below $4000 per ounce for the first time in nearly 10 trading days, marking a decline of over 3% for the second time since October 21 [1] - The cumulative increase in gold prices reached 12.69% during the U.S. government shutdown, which is significantly higher than historical norms, leading to profit-taking by some investors [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent decline, the bullish outlook for gold is not over, as challenges related to the U.S. government shutdown and high federal debt levels continue to pose risks [2] - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low in October, indicating potential economic concerns, while expectations for interest rate cuts are increasing due to the liquidity crisis [2] - Short-term focus should be on the $4000 per ounce support level for gold, while the broader economic factors include trade developments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions at the end of the month [2]

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 276 billion, 32.3 billion, and 142.4 billion respectively, with net financing of 16.6 billion, -19.8 billion, and 23.3 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds totaled 401.2 billion in issuance, with a net financing amount of 182 billion [1] - One new convertible bond was issued, expected to raise 1.7 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Long-term interest rate bonds and perpetual bonds performed well, influenced by factors such as the stock-bond relationship, liquidity easing, and institutional behavior [2] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank conducted a 1 trillion buyout reverse repurchase operation for six-month terms, with a total buyout of 4 trillion this month, marking the highest level in nearly seven months, indicating continued liquidity easing [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The Ministry of Finance set a local bond balance limit of 500 billion [4] - September's import and export data and M1 exceeded expectations, while credit, social financing, and CPI were slightly below expectations [4] - In the overseas market, a video call between US and China trade leaders raised concerns about the credit quality of US regional banks, with Powell hinting at the end of balance sheet reduction; US Treasury yields fell, and US stocks initially rose before declining [4] Equity Market - A-shares experienced strong risk aversion, with the Wande All A index dropping 3.45% over the week; the previously high-performing TMT sector led the decline, with electronics down 7.14%, media down 6.27%, and communications down 5.92%, while banks and coal stocks led the gains [5] - Trading volume decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 2.19 trillion, down 234.579 billion week-on-week [5] - As of October 16, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 2.440123 trillion, an increase of 10.908 billion from October 9 [5] - Future focus includes the progress of US-China negotiations and the sustainability of market style shifts [5] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Ahead of the Fourth Plenary Session and the upcoming high-level US-China talks, the policy environment is expected to remain stable, with a low likelihood of contractionary measures, providing trading opportunities in the bond market based on changes in risk appetite and expectations of easing policies [6] - However, bond trading space remains highly dependent on fundamental trends and geopolitical developments, necessitating close attention to third-quarter GDP data and policy signals from key meetings and public statements [6] - In the current uncertain environment, the focus should be on controlling volatility, with increased allocation value in reasonably valued bank convertible bonds [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. banking system's reserves have declined for two consecutive weeks, falling below $3 trillion, which is a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's decision on balance sheet reduction [1] - As of October 22, bank reserves decreased by approximately $59 billion, reaching $2.93 trillion, the lowest level since the week of January 1 [1] - The decline in reserves coincides with the Treasury's increased borrowing to rebuild cash balances after raising the debt ceiling in July, which has drawn liquidity from other liabilities on the Fed's balance sheet [1] Group 1 - The continuous drop in reserves indicates a tightening liquidity environment, impacting the operations of the financial system [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will discuss the future of its balance sheet in the upcoming meeting, with a high likelihood of policy rates being lowered to 3.75%–4% [1] - Strategists from firms like JPMorgan and Bank of America anticipate that the Fed will halt the reduction of its approximately $6.6 trillion balance sheet this month, ending the liquidity withdrawal process [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction would stop when bank reserves are slightly above "ample" levels, potentially approaching this threshold in the coming months [1] - Rising money market rates and high repo rates suggest that reserves are no longer abundant, indicating that the financial system is nearing a state of scarcity [1]

Group 1 - The scale of reserves in the US banking system is continuously declining, recently falling below the important threshold of $3 trillion for two consecutive weeks, reaching a low of $2.93 trillion as of the week ending October 22, which is the lowest level since January of this year [1] - A significant reason for the decrease in reserves is the US government's increased bond issuance to replenish the treasury cash following the debt ceiling increase, which is tightening market liquidity [3] - The tightening of liquidity is reflected not only in the decline of reserves but also in the fluctuations of money market rates, indicating that the banking system's reserves are shifting from "ample" to "tight" [3] Group 2 - The usage of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool, which was once a "reservoir" to alleviate excess funds, is also shrinking, indicating a further tightening of overall liquidity [4] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is approximately $6.6 trillion, and it continues to withdraw funds from the market through its "quantitative tightening" policy [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent statement that "bank reserves are slightly above ample levels" is seen as a significant signal, with the "ample level" referring to the minimum reserve scale needed for stable financial system operation [4]

Group 1 - ADP Research has suspended providing its employment data series to the Federal Reserve, which previously covered about 20% of the private sector employment in the U.S. This suspension is expected to widen the information gap for the Fed ahead of key monetary policy meetings [1] - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting on October 28-29, with a strong market consensus anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of this rate cut has reached 96.7% according to CME's FedWatch tool [3] - Despite the interruption of key economic indicators, market expectations for a loose monetary policy continue to strengthen, with a recent survey indicating that 115 out of 117 economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00% [3] Group 2 - If the rate cut occurs as expected, it may lead to downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, affecting the prices of dollar-denominated assets like gold [4] - A loose monetary environment is likely to provide liquidity support for global risk assets [4] - The ongoing public calls from the White House for larger rate cuts may challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar index may put pressure on precious metal prices, but concerns about a weakening US job market, potential future interest rate cuts by the Fed, uncertainty in China-US trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks, support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 948.84 yuan/g, down 38.05 yuan from the previous day and 18.45 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 87,610, with a position of 254,754, down 186 from the previous day and up 5,052 from the previous week [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,381 yuan/10g, down 378 yuan from the previous day and 600 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 2,347,356, with a position of -182,550 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,116.60 US dollars/ounce, down 21.90 US dollars from the previous day and 43.00 US dollars from the previous week; trading volume was 396,022, with a position of 357,370, down 4,708 from the previous day and 16,561 from the previous week [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 2.17 US dollars from the previous day; trading volume was -66,532, with a position of 122,583, down 3,620 from the previous day and 7,608 from the previous week [1] Important Information - The secondary lending market is in turmoil, and PrimaLend has filed for bankruptcy. The Fed is considering reducing bank capital requirements from 19% to a minimum of 3% [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, the second-longest on record. Unemployment may rise temporarily. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest [1] - The US has lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles and imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3,900 - 4,100 and resistance levels around 4,383 - 4,778; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 930 and resistance levels around 1,000 - 1,100; for London silver, support levels around 42 - 48 and resistance levels around 57 - 68; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 9,800 - 10,800 and resistance levels around 13,000 - 14,800 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer finance industry is undergoing significant layoffs and cost-cutting measures due to the implementation of new lending regulations, which have negatively impacted high-priced off-balance-sheet business models [1][2][11]. Group 1: Layoffs and Cost-Cutting - A southern consumer finance company has initiated layoffs, particularly affecting certain business and back-office departments, as a direct response to declining business performance [1]. - Other consumer finance institutions are also expected to follow suit in reducing costs, indicating a widespread trend across the industry [2]. - The industry is experiencing a collective "balance sheet contraction," with multiple institutions lowering their lending targets and asset scales since September [7][11]. Group 2: Business Model Adjustments - The new regulations have forced companies to pivot towards on-balance-sheet lending models, such as car and home equity loans, as off-balance-sheet business shrinks [4][5]. - The short-term personal consumption loan balance in the industry has decreased by 365.2 billion, a drop of 3.6% since the beginning of the year, indicating a broader trend of contraction in consumer finance [9]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The consumer finance sector is facing intensified competition and a potential shakeout, with smaller institutions struggling to maintain growth while larger firms become more cautious in their operations [11][12]. - There is an expectation of further contraction in the industry, particularly during the upcoming Spring Festival, with predictions of additional declines in overall scale within the next five months [11]. - The risk associated with credit assets is rising, with some institutions reporting a 20-30% increase in credit asset risk, leading to higher provisions for bad debts [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Uncertainties in China-US trade negotiations support precious metal prices. Concerns about the weakening US job market increase the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction. Geopolitical conflicts in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, expansion expectations of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks globally support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term, but potential negative factors such as the alleviation of the US credit crisis and the end of the federal government shutdown should be watched [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Gold was 973.70 yuan/gram, with a change of - 22.20 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of spot沪金T+D was 71850.00, and the position was 258232.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 4267.90 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 39107098.30 troy ounces. The holding amount of SPDR gold ETF was 41.50 tons [1] - **Silver**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Silver was 11779.00 yuan/ten grams, and the trading volume of spot沪银T+D was 1249250.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 47.52 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 506467618.32 troy ounces. The holding amount of iShare silver ETF was 487.19 tons [1] Important Information - The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China - US economic and trade consultations. The White House economic advisor said the US government shutdown might end this week. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party signed a coalition - governing document, and Takamachi Sanae is likely to become the Japanese prime minister. Vietnam's real estate market has a "trillions - level" problem [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to lay out long positions after price corrections. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 and the resistance level around 4383 - 4778. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 930 and the resistance level around 1000 - 1100. For London silver, watch the support level around 42 - 48 and the resistance level around 57 - 68. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9800 - 10800 and the resistance level around 13000 - 14800 [1]