Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Waller as the new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump is expected to have limited impact on the Fed's monetary easing path, with the likelihood of maintaining interest rates steady in the first half of the year and potential rate cuts in the second half [1][8]. Group 1: Nomination and Background - Trump's nomination of Waller reflects a cautious dovish stance, with a high probability of keeping rates unchanged in the first half of the year and possibly cutting rates twice in the second half [1]. - Waller has a diverse background across politics, business, and academia, which may enhance market confidence in his leadership [4]. - The nomination process faced delays, with multiple candidates being considered before Waller was ultimately selected [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Proposals - Waller advocates for a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, aligning with Trump's policy preferences [4][5]. - He believes inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon and criticizes the Fed's excessive balance sheet expansion, suggesting a return to conventional monetary policy tools [5][6]. - Waller's approach to interest rate cuts is expected to be gradual, as he acknowledges the need to balance inflation concerns with economic growth [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Trends - Following Waller's nomination, there was volatility in U.S. equities and bonds, with the dollar strengthening and gold prices declining [8]. - The market anticipates that major assets will revert to economic fundamentals, with U.S. stocks likely to continue rising and bond yields having limited downward space [9]. - The dollar index is expected to remain weak overall, while gold may experience upward pressure due to geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainties [10].

2025年下半年以来，沃什立场明显转鸽，公开支持降息，建议美联储与财政部在国债发行方面协调，并 提出效仿1951年美联储与财政部达成政策协议的先例，推动双方达成新的政策协议，明确资产负债表规 模目标。2025年7月，沃什公开批评美联储在降息上犹豫不决的做法损害公信力，称降息是纠正政策失 衡的开始。 沃什为雅诗兰黛家族继承人罗纳德·劳德的女婿，劳德与特朗普有超过60年私人交情，2016年以来累计 向特朗普团队捐赠600万至800万美元。特朗普选择美联储主席的核心考量为能否快速降息，沃什的立场 转向与这一诉求高度匹配。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 美国总统特朗普于1月30日提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什出任下任美联储主席，现任主席鲍威尔任期将于 5月结束。市场此前将沃什视作传统鹰派人物，但其近年政策立场已出现明显转向。 沃什出生于1970年，2006年以当时最年轻理事身份加入美联储，2011年因反对第二轮量化宽松政策辞 职，曾担任小布什政府经济顾问，也是特朗普2017年美联储主席人选考察对象之一。 此前沃什以批评量化宽松、主张收缩资产负债表为鲜明标签，认为庞大 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold T+D is around 1131.44 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 5.23%, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 1134.99 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 1096.00 yuan per gram, showing significant volatility [1] - The market sentiment remains cautiously bullish, with attention on the resistance level at 1105 yuan per gram [3] Group 2 - If Kevin Warsh becomes the Federal Reserve Chairman, there are expectations for a significant reduction in the balance sheet, which has been closely linked to stock market trends [2] - The relationship between the balance sheet and risk assets has weakened, with stronger fiscal conditions and technology benefits supporting the market despite liquidity withdrawal [2] - Regulatory frameworks, such as reserve and asset composition requirements, may limit the speed of balance sheet reduction, indicating that even with Warsh's leadership, rapid changes may not occur [2]

市场最初的核心疑虑在于，缩表通常伴随流动性回收，在弱化前瞻指引并强调通胀稳定的背景下，可能 推升风险溢价与期限溢价，从而压制股票估值，并放大跨资产价格波动，尤其对高杠杆或现金流兑现周 期较长的资产更为不利。 但宏观策略师 Michael Ball 指出，沃什的政策框架并非缺乏缓冲空间。其一， 沃什对央行过度干预金融体系的警惕，与财政部长贝森特强调提升财政政策可预测性的立场高度契合， 为货币与财政在操作层面形成非正式协同创造了条件。在"沃什—贝森特"组合下，若美联储缩表节奏能 够与财政部稳定、可预期的国债发行安排相协调，市场对流动性路径与供给节奏的认知将明显改善。在 政策预期具备可信度的前提下，金融条件并不必然因缩表而出现意外收紧，利率市场所承受的被动冲击 也有望受到约束。 在上述框架下，沃什偏向降低利率的立场，可能为收益率曲线前端提供一定支撑；而从中长期角度观 察，若国债供给预期保持稳定、期限溢价受到抑制，长端利率的波动反而存在下降空间。 此外，沃什 主张弱化美联储在金融体系中的"主导性角色"，将部分责任重新交由财政与监管体系承担。这意味着， 对银行准备金及高质量流动性资产的严格约束存在调整余地。Ball 认 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is releasing risks, and silver is falling from a high level. Copper prices are strengthening due to raw material disturbances. Zinc is operating weakly. Lead prices are under pressure due to increased inventory. Tin has stopped falling and rebounded. Aluminum is rebounding slightly, alumina is oscillating within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is oscillating at a low level, and palladium prices may be suppressed by ETF outflows. Nickel is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with nickel - iron expectations providing support [2]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, Comex Gold 2602, and London Gold Spot all increased, with daily increases of 8.45%, 6.74%, 6.19%, and 6.06% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Comex Gold 2602 decreased, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Comex Silver 2602 increased, while the price of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 12.12% during the day. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 increased, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 109. The inventories of both gold and silver in Shanghai and Comex decreased [4]. - **News**: The US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill to end a partial shutdown. There was an AI panic in the US stock market, and the Fed governor Milan said that more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of - 1 [6]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 104,500, with a daily increase of 6.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased, and the inventory of Shanghai Copper and London Copper increased. The LME copper cash - 3M spread and other spreads changed [7]. - **News**: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year. Zambia's copper production in 2025 increased by 8%. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7%. Some copper companies' production decreased, and a copper mine in Canada resumed operations. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is studying including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve [7][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [9]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,960, with a 1.82% increase, while the London Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price decreased by 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, and the inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased while that of London Zinc decreased [10]. - **News**: Goldman Sachs analysts had views on Fed Chairman Wash. The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic - disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead decreased, and the inventory of both Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased [14]. - **News**: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 6.70% during the day but increased by 6.64% at night. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin increased, and the inventory of Shanghai Tin and London Tin decreased. The prices of spot tin decreased [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,810. The trading volume and inventory of Shanghai Aluminum and LME Aluminum changed. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,809. The prices and inventories of related products in the aluminum industry chain also changed [21]. - **News**: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamentals**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot increased. The trading volume and inventory of platinum and palladium in various markets changed [24]. - **News**: Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown. The Fed's statements on interest rate cuts and international events such as the situation between the US and Iran affected the market [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,830, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,585. The prices, trading volumes, and inventories of products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains changed [30]. - **News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, and Indonesia planned to adjust the nickel ore production target. Some nickel mines planned to restart operations [30][31][33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [35].

（原标题：?华尔街老兵给市场送来"定心丸"：准备迎接沃什领导下的美联储大幅降息路径） 智通财经APP获悉，在金融行业身经百战的华尔街老兵——即来自知名经纪商Tradition Dubai的全球宏 观策略顾问史蒂文·梅杰( Steven Major)在最新采访中表示，市场对于长期以来立场鹰派的沃什将担任美 联储主席的抛售反应过于夸张，且市场误判了这位新美联储主席的实际货币政策立场。这位"华尔街老 兵"强调，预计由凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)领导的美联储可能会把基准利率下调得远超市场预期。 ?无独有偶，华尔街金融巨头高盛几乎同一时间发布研报称，仅凭沃什此前在美联储担任理事时期的鹰 派言论判断其政策取向是错误的，高盛策略师团队在研报中指出："在我们看来，至少表示愿意降息是 他获得这份工作的先决条件。" "如果你如此确信收益率曲线前端收益指标会持续下行，同时又认为曲线会变陡，那就直接买短债市 场，直接选择做多，"梅杰强调。"我对做陡并不确信，我认为更好的交易是直接做多曲线中段区域。" 梅杰在采访中强调，除非沃什在降息阵营，否则他不会被考虑担任这一央行领军者角色，而且有可能降 息四到五次，而不是市场当前预期的两 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Marginal Changes - The consumer confidence index for January dropped significantly by 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest level since 2014, and well below market expectations of 91 [1][6]. - November trade data returned to normal patterns, with the overall trade deficit continuing to widen, and capital goods imports increased by 7.9%, led by computers and semiconductors, indicating sustained strong investment in AI-related sectors [1][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for December rose by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.2%, indicating that businesses are passing tariff costs downstream, with inflationary pressures persisting [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Rate Expectations - At the January FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, continuing a monthly balance sheet reduction of $40 billion [2][7]. - Powell's remarks indicated a more positive economic outlook, with a shift from moderate to more robust expansion, while the labor market remains relatively stable despite cooling [2][7]. Group 3: Warsh's Policy Stance and Potential Impact - Warsh, nominated as the next Fed Chair, is relatively hawkish, advocating for rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, viewing inflation as a choice and suggesting that AI-driven productivity gains can help curb inflation [3][8]. - His support for rate cuts without inflation concerns suggests room for further easing, but his push for balance sheet reduction may face constraints from short-term liquidity pressures and midterm election dynamics [3][8]. Group 4: Asset Implications - In the U.S. stock market, tech stocks led declines amid balance sheet reduction expectations, with significant divergence among major tech firms; Microsoft fell by 11% while Meta surged nearly 10% [4][9]. - The capital expenditures of leading companies increasingly rely on internal cash flow for financing, indicating a stronger economic pull compared to the internet bubble period [4][9]. - The steepening yield curve in U.S. Treasuries may present trading opportunities in long-term bonds, with short-to-medium term bond yields expected to decline [4][13]. - Gold prices experienced volatility due to retracting rate cut expectations, with significant market fluctuations potentially providing buying opportunities [4][16]. - The U.S. dollar may face a downward trend due to adjustments in national security strategy, with liquidity concerns contributing to short-term rebounds [5][20].

朋友在钢铁行业工作，长期做期货，有一个产业界的圈子。 周二晚给我打电话，说白银和铜价已经背离产业基础太远了，必定崩溃，他打算要做空。 我就是很坚定的说，逆势做空风险非常大，会崩溃，但你不一定能坚持到崩的时候，还是不 要冒险 。 他建议我也做做期货，和股票平滑收益， 我也说这个风险大，做不来。 这两天白银果然大跌， 也不知道朋友有没有真的去做空， 但是心理很内疚和忐忑，不知道是 不是耽误朋友赚钱。 也不好去问朋友。 以后再也不去自以为是的劝诫别人了。 科立瓦兰多 朋友问我，我一般回:说的有道理，可以尝试，不过要注意风险，仓位别太重，杠杆低一点， 钱是赚不完的，但有可能亏完。 给满认可和情绪价值。 这样他亏钱时，会请我吃烧烤，感谢我提醒他注意风险。 这样他赚钱时。。。 eaglex 投资不要聊具体操作 可以聊思路 聊观念 聊到底赚什么钱 听了你的建议赚了 对方会认为是自己的功劳 毕竟最后自己拿的主意 听了你的建议亏了 对方会认为是你的问题 没听你的建议赚了 对方觉得你也不过如此 纸上谈兵而已 没听你的建议亏了 对方觉得你太坏了 故意看笑话 知道会亏也不拦着自己些 逆势者 最惨的是你朋友没听你的话2万8空了，周四晚 ...

国外 1. 大摩：沃什治下的美联储变化将先体现在缩表上 摩根士丹利在一份报告中表示，在沃什执掌的美联储之下，任何实质性的变化更可能通过资产负债表政 策而非利率来逐步显现。缩减美联储资产负债表规模意味着降低银行对准备金的需求，而这一过程需要 时间，并且还需要对监管框架作出调整。摩根士丹利补充称："在其他条件不变的情况下，一个在对外 沟通和资产负债表规模上都采取更小'存在感'的美联储，应会推动收益率曲线趋于陡峭。" 2. 摩通私银：金价属健康技术性回调、仓位远未拥挤，年底看6150美元 国际金价大幅回调，摩根大通私人银行亚洲宏观策略主管唐雨旋认为，这次金价属健康的技术性回调， 因此前升势带有一定非理性成分，而此次调整有效消化了部分投机性仓位。值得注意的是，金价仅回到 两周前的水平，1月份仍录得13%的升幅。以往经验作参考，去年10月由4400美元回落至3900美元后， 曾短暂盘整，随后突破向上，至12月已收复并重上前高，故该行对黄金的基本面看法并无改变。唐雨旋 称，根据2025年数据，新兴市场央行的黄金储备占比仍处于低双位数，中国亦仅在高个位数，追赶空间 明显，同时ETF持仓亦仍低于2022至2023年的高位，而 ...

经历昨日沃什"缩表"交易扰动后，今日A股市场探底回升，市场情绪快速修复，沪指、创业板指均涨超 1%，深成指涨超2%，科创综指涨幅2.44%领涨主要宽基，沪深两市成交额2.54万亿，较上一个交易日缩 量405亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4800只个股上涨。从板块来看，商业航天、太空光伏 概念爆发，半导体设备、化工板块表现活跃，贵金属探底回升，AI应用方向也表现活跃。 近期A股市场波动较大，昨日一度出现恐慌性抛售，主要由多因素叠加所致：1、市场预期层面，投资 者正快速评估新提名美联储主席凯文·沃什的"降息+缩表"政策主张，引发金融市场紧缩担忧； 责任编辑：刘生傲 经历昨日沃什"缩表"交易扰动后，今日A股市场探底回升，市场情绪快速修复，沪指、创业板指均涨超 1%，深成指涨超2%，科创综指涨幅2.44%领涨主要宽基，沪深两市成交额2.54万亿，较上一个交易日缩 量405亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4800只个股上涨。从板块来看，商业航天、太空光伏 概念爆发，半导体设备、化工板块表现活跃，贵金属探底回升，AI应用方向也表现活跃。 近期A股市场波动较大，昨日一度出现恐慌性抛售，主要由多因素叠加所致：1 ...