美联储如期降息25基点并宣布12月1日起停止缩表（避免当前流动性有所收紧下重现2019年“钱荒”），此前市场已对此充分计价，焦点更多集中在后续降息路径上。本次会议偏鹰派。鲍威尔表示美联储内部对12月份是否继续降息分歧加大，越来越多的人认为或许应该等待一次。市场对此反应剧烈，美债利率大幅走高近10基点、美元同样冲高、美股与黄金调整。经过9月和10月接连两次降息后，利率已有所调整来应对“已知”的就业压力，但政府关门停摆无法提供更多新增经济信息，所以鲍威尔担心“盲飞”前进太快，适得其反。所以从这点看，美联储似乎有理由和动力12月暂停降息，观察后续变化。预计在短期内，政府关门的影响会使市场对继续让“宽松交易”受挫。 ...

美联储如市场所料继续降息行动，降息25基点，同时决定放弃量化紧缩（QT），一个月后结束缩减资产负债表（缩表）的计划。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的记者会上表示，通胀短期仍有上行压力，就业面临下行风险，目前面临的局面颇具挑战，委员会对12月是否再次降息仍存较大 分歧，降息并非板上钉钉。 FOMC某些成员认为，是时候暂停一下了。鲍威尔说，较高的关税正推动某些商品类别的价格上涨，从而导致整体通胀上升。 美联储祭出组合拳：继续降息25基点+12月结束缩表 美东时间10月29日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，将联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.00%至4.25%下调至3.75%至4.00%，降幅25个基点。在 上次会议今年内首次降息后，本次是联储一年来首次连续第二次FOMC会议降息。 本次降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周降息25个基点的概率达99.9%，12月下次会议继续降 息25基点的概率为91%。 这显示，市场已几乎完全消化今年内合计降息三次的预期。9月上次FOMC会后公布的利率展望显示，多数联储决策者预计的今年降息次数由6月公布的两次提 高到三次。 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has ended its balance sheet reduction after three and a half years, replacing maturing MBS holdings with short-term Treasury securities starting in December [4][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive 25 basis point cut [5][6]. - The decision to cut rates was widely anticipated by the market, with a 99.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement [6]. - There remains a division within the FOMC regarding the rate cuts, with two dissenting votes; one member advocated for a 50 basis point cut while another preferred to maintain the current rate [11][12]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed's balance sheet reduction, which began on June 1, 2022, will conclude on December 1, 2023, with a shift to reinvesting MBS principal payments into short-term Treasury securities [9][10]. - The Fed had previously reduced its monthly balance sheet reduction pace, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity in the market [7][9]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent labor market indicators align with trends observed before the government shutdown, with an acknowledgment of increased risks to employment in recent months [13][14]. - The statement reflects a shift in language regarding economic activity, indicating a slowdown in growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains elevated [14][15].

| 会议日期 | | | 275-300 300-325 325-350 350-375 375-400 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 65.9% | | 2026/01/28 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.7% | 52.5% | | 2026/03/18 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 36.9% | 40.4% | | 2026/04/29 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 17.5% | 37.9% | 32.8% | | 2026/06/17 | 1.5% | 11.0% | 28.9% | 35.1% | 19.6% | | 2026/07/29 | 4.7% | 16.9% | 30.9% | 29.9% | 14.4% | | 2026/09/16 | 9.5% | 22.4% | 30.5% | 23.8% | 9.8% | | 2026/10/28 | 11.9% | 23.9% | 29.3% | 21.2% ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00% [1] - This marks the second rate cut of the year, with a total reduction of 150 basis points in the current cycle [1] - The FOMC emphasized the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and reiterated its commitment to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2% target [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve will end its balance sheet reduction, or "tapering," on December 1, with the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities being reinvested into short-term government bonds [1] - The last monetary policy meeting of the year is scheduled for December 9-10 [2]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate from a target range of 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00% is not guaranteed for December, with significant disagreement among FOMC members [2][8][9] - The Fed plans to end balance sheet reduction starting December 1, indicating a shift towards maintaining a stable balance sheet size [9][10] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job growth slowing since the beginning of the year, attributed to a decline in labor supply and reduced immigration [3][30] - Despite some companies announcing layoffs, initial unemployment claims remain stable, suggesting no immediate deterioration in the labor market [3][30][40] Inflation Trends - Inflation remains slightly above the Fed's 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.8% over the past year, driven by tariff impacts on goods [4][21] - Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, is estimated to be around 2.3%-2.4%, indicating that non-tariff inflation is not significantly deviating from the target [21][31] Economic Activity - Economic growth is projected to be moderate, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [2][37] - Consumer spending has shown strength, which may offset some negative impacts from the government shutdown [2][37] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased by $2.2 trillion over the past three and a half years, with the current size at approximately 21% of nominal GDP [9][10] - The Fed will reinvest proceeds from maturing agency securities into short-term Treasury bills to adjust the balance sheet structure [10][18] Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The market has priced in expectations for a rate cut in December, but the Fed emphasizes that this is not a foregone conclusion [11][12] - The ongoing government shutdown may complicate data collection and impact future policy decisions, leading to a more cautious approach [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement indicates that after the conclusion of balance sheet reduction on December 1, the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested into short-term Treasury securities [1] Group 1 - Starting from December 1, all principal payments on maturing U.S. Treasury securities will be rolled over [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity in the money market has tightened over the past three weeks, and the benefits of continuing the balance sheet reduction are limited [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that bank reserves are only slightly above adequate levels [1] - The decision regarding the balance sheet aims to provide the market with some time to adjust [1]

降息了。 美联储认为，现有指标表明，经济活动一直在以温和的速度扩张。今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，但截至8月仍处于低位；最近的指标与这些事态 发展是一致的。美联储强调，将坚定地致力于支持最大就业并将通货膨胀率恢复到2%的目标。 美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，美国9月CPI同比上涨3%，低于市场预期的3.1%，前值为2.9%；核心CPI同比上涨3%，低于市场预期的3.1%，前值为 3.1%。 同时，受美国政府"停摆"影响，本月非农数据暂未公布。美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)发布的数据显示，今年9月美国私营部门减少3.2万个就业岗位，出 现2023年3月以来最大降幅，远低于增加约5万个就业岗位的市场预期。ADP数据往往被称为"小非农"，对判断就业市场情况具有一定的参考性。 此外，美联储决定于12月1日完成其总证券持有量的减持(缩表)，12月1日结束缩表后，抵押贷款支持证券的赎回本金将被再次投资于短期国债。 在投票方面，美联储货币政策委员会大多数成员投票支持降息25个基点。斯蒂芬米兰投票降息50个基点，杰弗里斯密特投票不降息。 美联储年内最后一次议息会议将在12月9—10日举行。 当地时间10月29日，美联储结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and announced the cessation of balance sheet reduction on December 1, with Milan dissenting and advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points reflects a shift in monetary policy aimed at stimulating economic growth [1] - The announcement to stop balance sheet reduction on December 1 indicates a strategic pivot in the Fed's approach to managing liquidity in the financial system [1] - Dissent from Milan, who called for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, highlights differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of monetary easing [1]