美媒：就业数据不佳，特朗普用图表为美国经济辩护 中新网8月8日电 据美联社报道，当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普出人意料地将记者召集到白宫椭圆形办 公室，向他们展示了一些图表，并声称这些图表表明美国经济依然稳健。劳工统计局发布了上个月的就 业数据之后，经济状况引发了担忧。特朗普对数据不满，解雇了劳工统计局局长。 报道称，陪同特朗普谈论经济问题的是保守派智库传统基金会学者、《特朗普经济学》一书的合著者斯 蒂芬·穆尔。 编辑：熊思怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 穆尔展示了一系列图表，试图称赞特朗普的经济表现，并淡化前总统拜登的经济成绩。特朗普站在穆尔 旁边，时而插话表示赞同。 穆尔表示，他收集了一些数据，证明特朗普解雇劳工统计局局长的决定是正确的。穆尔指出，劳工统计 局的报告高估了拜登任期最后两年创造的就业岗位数量。 "我认为他们是故意这么做的。"特朗普说道。 报道指出，特朗普在第一任期内曾提名穆尔担任美联储理 ...

Core Points - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations and breaching the 100,000 threshold, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][4] - Despite the disappointing job growth, the unemployment rate remained at approximately 4.2%, which is puzzling given the job losses [1][4] - The release of the employment data led to a sharp decline in the stock market, with the Dow and S&P indices dropping nearly 2% and Nasdaq falling over 2.6% [4][8] - The credibility of the official employment data has been called into question due to the significant downward revisions, which undermines public trust in the data [4][8] - The political implications of the employment data are significant, as it reflects the ongoing power struggle and political maneuvering within the U.S. government, particularly in an election year [7][8] Group 1 - The July employment data was disappointing, with only 73,000 new jobs added, and prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, raising questions about the relationship between job growth and unemployment [1][4] - The stock market reacted negatively to the employment data, with major indices experiencing significant declines [4][8] Group 2 - The substantial revisions to employment data have led to skepticism regarding its accuracy and reliability [4][8] - The political context surrounding the employment data suggests it is being used as a tool for political gain, particularly by the Trump administration [7][8] - The situation highlights the intersection of economic data and political strategy, especially in the lead-up to elections [7][8]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View - The precious metals are in a volatile trend. With the geopolitical situation cooling down and tariff policies gradually implemented, the market focus has shifted to the US economy and the prospects of interest rate cuts. Amid continuous verification, market sentiment will face fluctuations. If the scenarios of stagflation or even recession become clearer, the upside potential for gold may be reopened. Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the precious metals' volatile trend [1] Other Key Points Economic Data and Market Reaction - Last week, the US released multiple economic data. The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q2 rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the key non - farm payrolls data changed unexpectedly. The non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months' data was revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed that the non - farm employment data was manipulated and instructed his team to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics director immediately. The market's concerns about the authenticity of economic data and the US economic outlook have intensified [1] Fed Policy and Market Expectations - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined based on economic data. With the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said that the time for rate cuts is approaching, and it is more likely to cut rates more than twice this year [1][2] Tariff - related News - The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months and is waiting for Trump to take action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariff rates on India because the country buys Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July 2025, approaching the expected 4.2%[5] - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[5][48] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.3% to 62.2% in July, with declines across three age groups, except for those aged 55 and above, which saw a 0.1 percentage point increase[7][25] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 80%, and the likelihood of two or more cuts in 2025 increased to 87%[5][11] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 2-year yield dropping by 25 basis points, while all major stock indices declined, with Nasdaq down 2.2%[5][12] Job Sector Analysis - In the private sector, five industries reported job losses in July, while the government sector saw a decrease of 10,000 jobs; however, private sector jobs increased by 83,000 when excluding government jobs[9][69] - The largest job gains in the private sector were in education and health services (79,000), followed by retail (16,000) and financial activities (15,000)[70] Unemployment Claims - The number of individuals receiving unemployment insurance remained stable at 1.946 million as of July 19, 2025, which is approximately 640,000 higher than the lowest point in mid-2022[10][32] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly to 218,000 for the week ending July 26, 2025, with a monthly average of 221,000, down by 20,000 from June[10][36]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - In July, the A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 5.2%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 8.14% [1] - The average daily trading volume was approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, and the average daily margin balance was about 1.79 trillion yuan [1] - The steel, pharmaceutical, building materials, communication, and electronics sectors showed the highest gains, while banking, utilities, transportation, food and beverage, and automotive sectors lagged behind [1] Group 2: Macro Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3, with production, new orders, and raw material inventory all declining [2] - New orders decreased to 49.4, and new exports dropped to 47.1, both below seasonal averages [2] - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6, while the services PMI decreased slightly to 50, indicating a downturn in both sectors [3] Group 3: U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, leading to a drop in risk appetite globally [4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and previous months' job additions were significantly revised downward, affecting market perceptions of the economy [4] - The adjustment in employment data has led to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and a drop in the dollar, while gold prices increased [4] Group 4: Market Strategy - The market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment followed by a potential upward trend, with high-risk preference funds possibly exiting due to a lack of continuous hot spots [5] - There is a focus on structural opportunities in industries such as AI applications, military, and non-bank sectors, while banking remains a defensive option [6] - The market is showing signs of a shift in risk appetite, with a more rational approach to investment as it moves towards a healthier state [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Economics** sector, specifically analyzing the **2Q GDP** performance and its implications for the economy moving forward [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: The headline US GDP rose by **3.0%** quarter-over-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) in 2Q, a significant recovery from a **0.5%** decline in 1Q [1][9]. 2. **Domestic Demand**: Domestic demand was notably weaker, slowing to a **1.2%** pace from **2.7%** over the previous year, indicating a softening in both household and business spending [8][9]. 3. **Trade Volatility**: A **30.3%** drop in imports in 2Q, following frontloading in 1Q, artificially inflated the GDP figure, suggesting that the growth may not be sustainable [9][12]. 4. **Inflation Concerns**: Core PCE price inflation exceeded expectations at **2.54%** q/q annual rate, indicating potential upward risks to inflation forecasts [10][26]. 5. **Consumer Spending**: Real personal consumption rebounded to **1.4%** in Q2, driven by a **2.2%** increase in goods spending, particularly in motor vehicles, which rose **16.2%** [15][16]. 6. **Investment Trends**: Nonresidential fixed investment growth slowed, with structures investment declining by **10.3%** in 2Q, reflecting increased uncertainty in the private sector regarding capital spending [29][30]. 7. **Government Spending**: Government spending added modestly to growth, rising **0.4%** in 2Q, but federal spending fell **3.7%**, indicating a potential drag on future growth [28][37]. 8. **Future Outlook**: The outlook for GDP growth remains cautious, with expectations of a slowdown in the second half of the year due to restrictive trade and immigration policies [9][38]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Changes**: Changes in inventories contributed significantly to GDP volatility, with inventories subtracting **3.2 percentage points** from GDP in 2Q [13][39]. - **Weakness in Services**: Services spending showed a modest increase of **1.1%** in Q2, but this was still below the pace seen in 2024, indicating ongoing challenges in the services sector [17][24]. - **Residential Investment Decline**: Households sharply reduced residential investment, which fell by **4.6%** in the quarter, following a modest decline in 1Q [18][39]. - **Economic Factors**: The slowdown in economic activity is attributed to various factors, including payback effects, immigration restrictions, and policy uncertainty affecting spending and hiring plans [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical findings and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the US economy.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the implications of the "anti-involution" policy in various industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to address issues of low prices and disorderly competition within specific industries, primarily targeting local governments and enterprises. It is not a macroeconomic policy but rather an industry-specific measure [2][3] 2. **Beneficiary Industries**: The industries benefiting from the anti-involution policy can be categorized into three groups: - **Group 1**: Industries with low economic activity but recovering profitability, such as wind power, rebar steel, and cement [2] - **Group 2**: Industries with bottoming fundamentals but strong expectations, including photovoltaic, general equipment, and medical devices [2] - **Group 3**: Industries with high economic activity but lacking real estate policy expectations, such as batteries and medical aesthetics [2] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision**: There is a significant divergence in market opinions regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in September. However, based on economic data, the probability of a rate cut appears substantial [4][11] 4. **Economic Data Insights**: - The second quarter GDP data indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with internal demand weakening [4] - Personal consumption expenditures increased their contribution to GDP from 0.3% in Q1 to approximately 1% in Q2, while private investment stagnated, negatively impacting GDP [5] 5. **Employment Data**: The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant shortfall, with only 73,000 jobs added, indicating a sharp decline in hiring momentum [6] 6. **Labor Market Dynamics**: Job growth is concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, while goods production and federal government employment are major detractors [7] 7. **Labor Market Indicators**: The labor force participation rate has declined, and the unemployment rate has increased, particularly among Black workers. Long-term unemployment has risen, but hourly wages have been adjusted upward [8] 8. **Manufacturing and Inflation**: The manufacturing sector has shown signs of decline, with pressures on demand and employment. Inflationary pressures are expected to be manageable in the near term [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Remarks**: Powell noted that the weakening supply-demand dynamics in the labor market pose risks, despite a stable unemployment rate [9] 2. **Market Reactions**: The rapid replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) could lead to rising overnight financing rates, influencing the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [10]

上周公布的经济数据出现了一些警示信号，印证了美国企业高管和消费者今年来一直所担忧的经济状 况。 上周五公布的非农就业数据表明，当前美国劳动力市场的状况比此前报告的情况要糟糕得多。经通胀调 整后的消费者支出(约占美国经济活动的三分之二)在今年上半年出现了下降，而美联储青睐的通胀指标 则在 6 月份有所回升。 智通财经APP获悉，富国银行的高级经济学家Sarah House表示："美国经济正'艰难地维持着自身的稳 定'。企业与消费者一直面临着一系列经济政策的急剧变化、不断攀升的通胀以及仍具一定紧缩性的货 币政策。这种组合所引发的经济停滞之担忧，如今不幸地开始应验。" 企业与消费者受冲击 美国许多企业已暂停投资和招聘，因为它们正试图弄清楚特朗普经济政策(其中主要就是关税政策)所带 来的影响究竟会如何。房地产市场刚刚经历了 13 年来最糟糕的春季销售季。而消费者由于债务不断增 加，已减少了对非必需品的消费。 EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco表示："随着物价上涨，企业和消费者越来越难以消费和投资， 这种挣扎很可能会持续下去。" 话虽如此，美国经济预计仍将稳步发展，但增速会低于过去几年的水平。 ...

Economic Growth Insights - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3%, significantly above the expected 2.6% and a recovery from the previous quarter's -0.5%[6] - Personal consumption increased by 1.4% compared to the previous quarter's 0.5%, while private investment saw a sharp decline of -15.6% from a prior growth of 23.8%[6] - Domestic final sales, which exclude trade, inventory, and government impacts, recorded a mere 1.2% growth, down from 1.9%, indicating a weakening underlying economic momentum[6] Consumption and Investment Trends - Personal consumption, a critical component of GDP, showed a slight recovery but remained low at 1.4%, with goods outperforming services[6] - Private investment's significant contraction of -15.6% contributed to a 3.1% drag on GDP, with both residential and non-residential investments shrinking for two consecutive quarters[6] - The decline in consumer confidence and income growth is expected to further suppress consumer demand moving forward[6] Inflation and Policy Outlook - The PCE price index for Q2 2025 rose to 2.6%, exceeding expectations, while the core PCE index reached 2.8%[6] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident in consumer prices, with notable increases in durable goods and services[6] - The market may be overestimating both economic growth and inflation, with potential for monetary policy easing in 2026, contrary to current market pricing[6]

Group 1 - Gold prices remain stable after a significant increase last Friday, with traders assessing the impact of weak U.S. employment data on the economy and Federal Reserve interest rate path [1][2] - The trading price of gold is around $3,360 per ounce, having risen by 2.2% in the previous trading session, while the stock market experienced a decline [2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 73,000 new jobs were added in July, with previous months' data revised down by nearly 260,000, leading to a significant market downturn [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have increased by over 25% this year, with expectations of further rises due to continued central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [2] - As of the latest report, gold is priced at $3,354.29 per ounce, reflecting a 0.3% decrease, while silver, palladium, and platinum also saw declines [2]