通胀数据

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美国PPI数据低于预期支撑银价
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-17 03:55
Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown in inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and subsequently affect silver prices. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June was below market expectations, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% compared to the expected 0.2% increase, and a year-on-year rate of 2.3%, lower than the anticipated 2.5% and May's 2.6% [3] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also disappointed, showing a month-on-month change of 0.0% (expected 0.2%) and a year-on-year rate of 2.6%, below the expected 2.7% and May's 3.0% [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that overall inflation met expectations, but core inflation was slightly lower than anticipated, contributing to a softened outlook on aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3] Silver Price Analysis - Silver prices opened at $37.708, reached a daily high of $38.079, and then fell to a low of $37.473 before closing at $37.897, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern [4] - The upward target for silver is to break through $39.11, which could pave the way towards $40.00, with the next resistance at $40.50 [5] - Downward support levels are identified at $37.50 (previous consolidation high), $36.82 (21-day EMA), and $36.00 (channel support) [6]
白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:美联储动作“非常、非常缓慢”。美国通胀数据(一直都)不错。美联储需要回归“利率应当处于的曲线”。
news flash· 2025-07-16 14:41
Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the Federal Reserve's actions are "very, very slow" and emphasized the need for the Fed to return to the "curve where interest rates should be" [1] Group 1 - U.S. inflation data has been consistently good [1] - The Federal Reserve is urged to adjust its approach to interest rates [1]
美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:美联储动作“非常非常缓慢”,通胀数据一直表现良好。
news flash· 2025-07-16 14:34
美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:美联储动作"非常非常缓慢",通胀数据一直表现良好。 ...
分析师:英国6月强劲的通胀数据不应阻止央行在8月降息
news flash· 2025-07-16 12:04
分析师:英国6月强劲的通胀数据不应阻止央行在8月降息 金十数据7月16日讯,XTB分析师在报告中表示,英国6月强劲的通胀数据不应阻止英国央行在8月降 息。英国6月整体通胀率同比升至3.6%,高于预期。不过她指出,报告细节显示,6月住房成本同比涨 幅从5月的6.7%放缓至6.4%,这表明未来几个月服务业通胀可能会有所缓和。我们认为这份通胀报告不 会改变英国央行的决策方向,央行仍会按预期在(8月)降息。 ...
金饰价格跌破1000元大关,金价一度跌近20美元
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-16 09:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by U.S. inflation data and bond yields, highlighting a recent decline in gold prices followed by a slight recovery in Asian markets. It also emphasizes the ongoing interest of global central banks in accumulating gold as a strategic asset. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 15, gold prices fell significantly due to moderate U.S. inflation data and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with spot gold closing down $18.74, a decrease of 0.56%, at $3324.60 per ounce [1] - As of July 16, gold prices turned upward in Asian markets, with COMEX gold rising by 0.37% and London gold increasing by 0.56% [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen a decline, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang reporting decreases in their gold prices per gram [3] Group 2: U.S. Inflation Data - The U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in June compared to May, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, marking the fifth consecutive month of inflation data falling below expectations [4][5] - The report indicates that certain categories, particularly those affected by tariffs, have seen price increases, while new and used car prices have decreased [5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Accumulation - Global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, with a reported net purchase of 20 tons in May. As of the end of June, China's official gold reserves increased by 7,000 ounces [9] - The chief investment officer of DBS Bank expressed optimism about the gold market, projecting a target price of $3765 per ounce for gold by the fourth quarter of 2024 [8] - The article notes that the amount of gold purchased by central banks in the past three years has exceeded the total of the previous decade, suggesting a strong long-term demand for gold [9]
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-7-16)技术指标中线徘徊黄金将盘整
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 04:36
Group 1 - The current total holdings of the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 947.64 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - On July 15, spot gold prices experienced a decline after reaching a high of $3366.41 per ounce, closing at $3324.6 per ounce, down $18.74 or 0.56% [6] - Recent U.S. inflation data showed that both the June CPI and core CPI exceeded previous values, but core CPI has been below expectations for five consecutive months, indicating that tariff impacts on inflation are not fully realized [6][7] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest a 62% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential for nearly two cuts by the end of the year [6] - Analysts indicate that the lower-than-expected core CPI has raised questions about the extent of consumer price impacts from tariffs, potentially prompting President Trump to advocate more strongly for rate cuts [7] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices may consolidate, with resistance at $3350 and potential targets of $3400 and $3450 if broken, while a drop below $3300 could lead to testing the 100-day moving average at $3245 [6]
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250716
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 02:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the upcoming US copper tariff and the current off - season, while being affected by the tight copper raw material situation[2]. - The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term because of the potential increase in aluminum ingot supply and the off - season downstream demand[4]. - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend overall, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under the pressure of weak domestic consumption[5]. - The zinc price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show an oscillating trend in the short term influenced by market sentiment[6]. - The tin price is predicted to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply and demand are balanced with the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's tin mine复产[7]. - The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels as the valuation of nickel price relative to nickel - iron has risen to a relatively high level[8]. - The lithium carbonate price may face pressure as supply is expected to remain high despite short - term rebounds[9]. - The alumina price is expected to be shorted at high levels considering the over - capacity situation, with the ore price as the core factor[11]. - The stainless steel market is in an off - season with limited demand and reduced trading activity[13]. - The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance due to the off - season and large spot - futures price difference[16]. Summaries by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.15% to $9657/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78070 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110475 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 11.4%. The domestic Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 50000 tons[2]. - Outlook: The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 77200 - 78600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9500 - 9720/ton[2]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed down 0.52% to $2583/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20390 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 9000 hands to 636000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 70000 tons[4]. - Outlook: The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20550 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2550 - 2610/ton[4]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.88% to 16946 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $28.5 to $1988.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 60000 tons[5]. - Outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited under weak domestic consumption[5]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.73% to 22070 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $27.5 to $2711.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 93100 tons[6]. - Outlook: The zinc price is bearish in the medium - long term and may oscillate in the short term[6]. Tin - Market performance: The tin price oscillated. The combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 54.07%. The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025[7]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price operating in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton and LME tin price in the range of $31000 - 35000/ton[7]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounded at night. The main contradiction lies in the stainless - steel production line. The nickel - iron production profit is extremely low, and the ore price has weakened recently[8]. - Outlook: The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the Shanghai nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the corresponding range[8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed up 1.26%. The LC2509 contract closed up 0.27%[9]. - Outlook: The lithium carbonate price may face pressure, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract operating in the range of 64800 - 68200 yuan/ton[9]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.61% to 3143 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Guizhou and Shanxi increased. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 6900 tons to 25500 tons[11]. - Outlook: The alumina price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton[11]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12695 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 3.12%[13]. - Outlook: The stainless - steel market is in an off - season with limited demand[13]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.08% to 19790 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price remained flat, and the inventory in three regions increased by 900 tons to 27600 tons[15][16]. - Outlook: The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance[16].
2025年7月16日,国内黄金9995价格多少钱一克?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 00:55
截至8点30分,国内黄金(99.95%)最新报价为774.92元/克,下跌0.42%。 国际黄金价格报3337.1美元/盎司,上涨0.01%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯: 关税政策 特朗普政府的关税政策是金价波动重要驱动因素。他威胁对欧盟、墨西哥等征收高额关税,引发市场对 全球贸易格局担忧。欧盟准备报复性关税,关税升温或加剧通胀,利好黄金。但短期内市场观望情绪使 金价承压,投资者等待政策细节和经济数据明确方向。当地时间周二晚,特朗普称将对小国发关税信 函,税率或略高于10%,为金价提供避险支撑。 通胀数据与美联储政策 美国6月CPI环比涨幅为1月以来最大,核心CPI年化通胀率上升,市场对美联储降息预期略有调整,年 底前降息约44个基点,9月降息概率降至53%。鲍威尔对通胀警惕,意味着美联储降息或谨慎。通胀数 据温和上升未超预期,使美元指数创近三周新高,美债收益率升至6周高位,打压金价,但市场认为美 元上涨可能是技术性调整,黄金仍有回暖空间。 市场情绪与技术面 黄金市场多空交织,短期波动频繁。技术面显示,关键点位如3375美元构成强压,多次冲击未破;3330 - 3350美元区间是重要支撑 ...
0715:通胀数据落地,美元指数加速反弹!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 14:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in July despite pressure from President Trump, as recent inflation data does not support a rate cut [2][5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6% [2]. - The core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, which is below the expected 0.3% [6]. Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.6% [4]. - President Trump has called for an immediate reduction of the federal funds rate by 300 basis points, arguing that inflation is very low [5]. - The recent CPI data has accelerated the rebound of the US dollar index, with an initial target for this rebound expected to test the 99.50-100 range [8].
分析师:美联储当前的政策僵局可能会持续
news flash· 2025-07-15 13:33
分析师:美联储当前的政策僵局可能会持续 金十数据7月15日讯,Alliance Bernstein分析师Eric Winograd表示,最新的通胀数据并未减少关税带来的 不确定性,很可能会让美联储继续观望。他表示,住房价格指数小幅下降表明通胀走低的潜在趋势依然 未变。但一些可能受到进口关税影响的商品,其价格涨幅有所加快。Winograd称:"事实上,若不是关 税相关的不确定性,我认为联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会对这一趋势有足够信心,并且已经开始降 息了。"他还表示,在局势更加明朗之前,当前的政策僵局可能会持续。 ...