Macroeconomic Summary - The US July PCE increased by 2.6% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and previous values, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3% [1] - The core PCE for July rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly higher than the previous 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - Durable goods orders in July fell by 2.8% month-on-month, better than the expected decline of 3.8% and previous decline of 9.4%, while core durable goods orders excluding transportation rose by 1.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% [1] - New home sales in July decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.5% increase and previous 4.1% increase, totaling 652,000 units, which was better than the expected 630,000 units but lower than the previous 656,000 units [1] Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.37% over the week, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.35% and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.10% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 3 sectors saw gains, with Energy leading at 2.46% and Utilities lagging at -2.10% [2][3] Investment Direction - The Q2 GDP revision in the US showed stronger-than-expected growth driven by business investment, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could catalyze a recovery trade [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have slightly increased, with a probability of 86.6% for cuts starting in September [4] - The BoShi S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a tool for domestic investors to capture growth in the US stock market, tracking the S&P 500 Index which covers over 500 representative companies [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high. COMEX gold futures rose by 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce, with an intraday peak above $3600. COMEX silver futures increased by 0.01% to $41.73 per ounce. Multiple institutions predict that after four months of consolidation, precious metals are likely to enter a new upward trend, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target price for gold at $3800 per ounce [1][2][17] - The recent actions of President Trump attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve officials have caused market unease regarding the independence of the Fed. The US Geological Survey has proposed including silver and other minerals in the 2025 critical minerals list, raising concerns about potential import tariffs on silver. The dovish stance of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, further supporting precious metals [2][17] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices. The overall market for gold and silver is expected to remain strong as the Fed approaches a potential rate cut and amid Trump's interference with the Fed's independence [2][17] Group 2: Stock Indices - The three major US stock indices experienced declines, with small-cap stocks showing significant pullbacks. The banking sector led gains while the communication sector lagged. The market turnover reached 2.91 trillion yuan. As of September 1, the financing balance increased by 35.36 billion yuan to 2.280829 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential incremental policies to boost the real economy in the second half of the year [3][9] - The current market is in a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom" resonance period, indicating a high probability of continued market performance. However, investors should adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Indices with a higher proportion of technology growth stocks, such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, are more aggressive and volatile, while indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, which are more defensive, may have relatively weaker price elasticity [3][9] Group 3: Copper and Other Metals - Copper prices rose in the overnight session, driven by tight supply of concentrates and high growth in smelting output. The National Bureau of Statistics reported positive growth in the electricity sector, with significant increases in photovoltaic installations. However, the automotive and home appliance sectors are showing signs of slowing growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to mixed factors [3][18] - Zinc prices also increased overnight, with processing fees for zinc concentrates recovering and smelting profits turning positive. However, the construction investment growth remains weak, and the overall supply-demand balance may tilt towards surplus in the short term, leading to potential weakness in zinc prices [3][19]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices each dropping over 1% at one point [1] - Major stocks such as Nvidia, Amazon, and AMD fell more than 2%, while Tesla and Meta dropped over 1% [1] Nasdaq and Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Composite Index opened at 21,086.58 and recorded a decline of 202.67 points, or 0.94% [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also saw a decline of over 1% during the session, with NIO falling more than 1% [2] - NIO reported its Q2 2025 delivery figures of 72,056 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71.2% [2] - The company's Q2 revenue reached 19.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 57.9% [2] European Market - Major stock indices in the UK, France, and Germany also showed declines [3] Economic Indicators and Central Bank Actions - European Central Bank member Simkus indicated that economic risks are materializing, suggesting no immediate reason to adjust interest rates, with a potential discussion on rate cuts in October [5] - In the context of declining stock markets, gold prices saw a slight increase, rising over 0.6% [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a short-term increase of 2.5%, trading at $111,200 per coin, while Ethereum rose over 2% to $4,383.93 [7] Political and Economic Developments - Former President Trump is expected to announce a "national housing emergency" to address the housing affordability crisis in the US [7] - A recent court ruling deemed much of Trump's global tariff policy illegal, which may lead to an appeal to the Supreme Court [7] - Upcoming US non-farm payroll data for August is anticipated to have significant implications, alongside key inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions in the coming days [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - International gold prices have risen for the fifth consecutive trading day, with COMEX gold futures reaching a record high of $3553.8 per ounce, and spot gold surpassing $3480 per ounce, nearing the historical high set in April [1] - Year-to-date, spot gold has increased by over 32%, while spot silver prices have crossed the $40 per ounce mark for the first time since 2011, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [1][3] - Domestic gold stocks have surged, with companies like Western Gold hitting the daily limit, and Hunan Gold rising over 9% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The significant rise in international gold prices is attributed to two main factors: the Federal Reserve's open stance on potential interest rate cuts, as indicated by Chairman Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting, and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve following the dismissal of Governor Cook [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates once or twice this year, providing overall support for commodity prices, including gold and silver [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for August is anticipated to be a crucial indicator of economic health and will test market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts [5] - Goldman Sachs notes that the August non-farm payroll data will be key in determining the extent and timing of potential rate cuts, especially if job growth continues to slow [5] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book will also be released, providing insights into economic activity and inflation trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of inflation in the U.S. is impacting consumer confidence, leading to a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a focus on non-farm employment and inflation data [1] Group 1 - U.S. inflation is rising, which is causing a decline in consumer confidence [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] - The U.S. stock market is entering a performance gap in September, which may increase market volatility [1]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9670, with a recent increase of 3.62% from an opening price of 9394, reaching a high of 9771 and a low of 9385, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The U.S. personal spending for July recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while the core PCE price index year-on-year was at 2.9%, also meeting expectations [2] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of softening, with an average monthly job increase of 35,000 over the past three months, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August recorded a final value of 58.2, below the expected 58.6, reflecting a decline of approximately 6% from July [3] - Concerns over high prices have led to a decrease in durable goods purchasing conditions to the lowest point in a year, with personal financial conditions declining by 7% [3] - The silver market is currently in a strong bullish trend, with key support around 9500; a drop below this level may signal a potential peak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, highlighting the impact of inflation data on the Canadian central bank's interest rate decisions [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The overall inflation rate in Canada decreased from 1.9% to 1.7% in July [1] - The inflation rate excluding indirect taxes also fell from 2.5% to 2.2% [1] - Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remains above 3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Central Bank Predictions - Desjardins Group maintains its prediction for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada next month, influenced by the "relatively mild" inflation data [1] - Economist Royce Mendes noted that price increases related to tariffs may have begun earlier than the central bank anticipated [1] Group 3: Currency Trends - The USD/CAD exchange rate was reported at 1.3733, with a slight decline of 0.01% from the opening price of 1.3737 [1] - The Bollinger Bands indicate resistance at the upper band of 1.3766 and support at the lower band of 1.3739, with the latest price fluctuating around 1.3760 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]

Group 1 - The demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, has increased due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and easing inflation data, leading to a rise in gold prices [1] - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.82% to $3,476.9 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.29% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) surged by 4.51% [1] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized revision showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, surpassing the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3% [1] Group 2 - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for the second quarter was revised to an annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5%, consistent with the initial value but below the expected 2.6% [1] - A lawsuit was filed by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook against President Donald Trump, challenging his attempt to dismiss her based on allegations of lying in a mortgage application, marking a significant dispute regarding the independence of the U.S. central bank [1] - Analysts from Baocun Futures noted that Nvidia's third-quarter guidance was not optimistic, which may contribute to a risk premium for gold [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3400.47 per ounce, showing a slight upward trend amid geopolitical risks and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies [2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is crucial, with expectations of a 2.6% increase for July, which could influence market perceptions of inflation and the Fed's interest rate decisions [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, with key resistance at $3400 and support at $3365, suggesting a potential for further upward movement if support levels hold [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have decreased by 0.46% to $67.74 per barrel, while WTI crude oil has fallen by 0.56% to $63.79 per barrel, ending a previous upward trend [6] - U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, but concerns about seasonal demand decline post-Labor Day are limiting price increases [6] - Technical indicators suggest that WTI crude oil is experiencing a range-bound market, with support at $63 and resistance between $65 and $66, indicating a wait-and-see approach for further market direction [7]