Core Insights - The article discusses the downward trend of gold prices and questions whether there is potential for a long-term bullish outlook [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The article highlights the volatility of the US dollar against non-US currencies, which is contributing to the weakening of gold prices [1] - It raises concerns about the possibility of further declines in gold prices and the conditions necessary for a rebound [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold returned to the $3350 mark, and Shanghai gold rose above 775 yuan. The expectation of US tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the gold price. However, the better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data reduced the expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the probability of three rate cuts this year decreased significantly, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price is expected to remain under pressure. [3][29] - In the medium to long term, since the relaxation of US tariff policies, market risk appetite has increased, and the gold price has declined significantly. Technically, the 60 - day moving average can be used as a reference for long - term upward movement. After breaking below it, the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions may increase. The gold price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken. [3][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: The report mentions the linkage between the US dollar index and gold price but does not elaborate on the specific weekly trend [7]. - **Indicator Changes**: From June 27th to July 3rd, COMEX gold increased by 1.52%, COMEX silver by 2.42%, SHFE gold主力 by 1.94%, and SHFE silver主力 by 1.73%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.04%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.02, the S&P 500 increased by 1.72%, and the US crude oil continuous increased by 3.24%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.88%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.21%. SPDR gold ETF decreased by 7.16, and iShare gold ETF increased by 0.32 [8]. 3.2 Non - farm Payrolls Higher than Expected, Gold Price Under Pressure - In the first half of the week, the expectation of tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, and the gold price oscillated upwards. In the second half of the week, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data supported the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the US dollar index rebounded, and the gold price was under pressure. The high market risk preference last week, with the non - farm payrolls data having little impact on it, also put pressure on the gold price as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs [10][13]. 3.3 Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long non - commercial positions on COMEX have continued to rise. As of June 24th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,509 contracts, short positions increased by 1,135 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16]. - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to climb. In early June, silver prices rose significantly, and the corresponding ETFs increased their positions significantly, with both price and volume rising. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, market attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to remain strong [18]. - Since late April, the gold price has risen and then fallen, and the gold - silver ratio has also declined from a high level. Silver has benefited from its precious metal attribute and short - term catch - up growth. After breaking through the one - year oscillation high, short - term market attention has increased, and it has strong upward momentum. The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [22]. - Since late June, the yield spread has continued to strengthen, mainly due to the significant decline in the near - end yield caused by expected interest rate cuts. Usually, the near - end US Treasury yield depends on the benchmark interest rate, while the long - end is more related to long - term economic conditions [24]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the gold price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term and maintain a weak trend in the medium to long term, while the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and strong economic data from the US, which has reduced the urgency for interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market is awaiting details on tariffs and is particularly focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes to analyze future monetary policy [3] - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the overall trend for gold remains upward, as real yields may continue to decline in the context of potential Fed policy easing [3] Group 2 - Gold prices opened lower, with a significant drop to 3306 and further down to 3295, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [6] - The analysis suggests that gold may continue to face downward pressure unless it breaks above the resistance level of 3310, with a potential target of 3438 if upward momentum is achieved [6] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish scenarios possible, but the bearish outlook appears stronger at this moment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant drop in both spot and futures prices, alongside the performance of related ETFs and the implications of upcoming U.S. tariff policy changes on market sentiment [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 7, spot gold prices fell below $3,310, experiencing a drop of over 1% before recovering [1]. - COMEX gold futures opened at $3,342.9 and reached a low of $3,309.6, closing down by 0.83% [2]. - Other precious metals also saw declines, with platinum down over 2% at $1,357.9 per ounce and palladium down 1.72% at $1,112.1 per ounce [2][3]. Group 2: ETF Performance - Gold-related ETFs experienced declines, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.71% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) down 1.17% [3][4]. - The performance of constituent stocks within these ETFs varied, with some stocks like Chao Hong Ji and Man Ka Long rising, while others like Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold fell [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to exhibit volatility, particularly in light of the upcoming changes to U.S. tariff policies, which may influence market risk sentiment [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, reporting a total of 7.39 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) as of the end of June [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - After 18 months of intense price increases, gold price volatility is expected to ease in the coming quarters, although supportive factors such as ETF inflows, central bank purchases, and a weakening dollar will continue to favor upward movement in gold prices until 2026 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Price Outlook** - There is an 80% probability that gold prices will remain stable or increase over the next 6-9 months, with a bullish scenario suggesting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce [1] - **Supportive Factors** - The weakening dollar and potential dovish policies from the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year may attract more investment into gold from the record $7 trillion in money market mutual funds [1]

Group 1 - The ADP data released yesterday showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs, which is a significant surprise and is bullish for gold prices [3] - Despite the positive sentiment for gold, there was no significant volatility in its price, indicating a lack of strong market reaction [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is crucial; if it underperforms expectations, it could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that gold is facing selling pressure around the 3365 level, suggesting a tendency for price consolidation rather than a strong trend [3] - Key support levels to watch are at 3327 and 3333, with a focus on maintaining a bullish outlook as long as these levels hold [5] - There is a potential for increased volatility around the non-farm payroll data release, which may necessitate adjustments to support and resistance levels [5]

Group 1 - The unexpected decline in the "little non-farm" data raises concerns about the strength of the U.S. job market, with the market awaiting confirmation from the upcoming non-farm payroll report [1] - Gold prices have increased for three consecutive days but experienced a pullback during the Asian trading session, indicating potential consolidation among bullish traders [1] - Mixed sentiments are observed in major indices such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, leading to uncertainty about future market trends [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 70% compared to 30% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 73% bullish and 27% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a strong bullish sentiment at 82%, with only 18% bearish, while the Dow Jones Index shows a more balanced sentiment of 59% bullish and 41% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index reflects a bearish sentiment of 57% against 43% bullish, and the German DAX 40 Index shows a near-even split with 47% bullish and 53% bearish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a significant bearish sentiment of 86%, while the Euro/GBP pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 84% [4] - The Euro/Yen and Euro/AUD pairs both exhibit a high bearish sentiment of 93%, indicating a strong preference for selling these pairs [4] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 84%, while the USD/JPY pair is nearly balanced with 49% bullish and 51% bearish sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to break through 1200 yuan per gram in the second half of the year, analyzing key factors and predictions for the market [1][18]. Current Price and Target Gap - As of July 2025, domestic gold jewelry prices range from 1000 to 1010 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Sang Sang at 1000 yuan and Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan [1]. - The current international gold price is 3320 USD per ounce (approximately 760 yuan per gram), indicating that a target price of 1200 yuan per gram requires a 20% increase, necessitating the international price to exceed 4500 USD per ounce [3]. Historical Comparison - The peak price for gold jewelry in April 2025 was 1082 yuan per gram (with international gold at 3500 USD per ounce) [3]. - To reach 1200 yuan, gold prices must surpass the historical peak by 11%, which is significantly higher than current market momentum [3]. Supporting Factors for Price Increase - A continued depreciation of the US dollar could stimulate short-term gold price increases if the dollar index falls below 90 (currently at 99.7) [3]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (potentially 100 basis points this year) could also support gold prices, although the implementation of such policies remains uncertain [3]. - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as renewed violence in the Middle East and increased trade tensions with the US, may drive demand for gold as a safe haven [4]. Central Bank Purchases - In 2024, global central banks purchased a net total of 1045 tons of gold, and if this trend continues at a rate of 1000 tons annually, it could provide long-term support for gold prices [5]. Core Constraints - The premium pressure on gold jewelry is significant, with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram. If international prices do not rise, retail prices may struggle to surpass 1100 yuan [6]. - A strong technical resistance level exists at 3400 USD per ounce, and breaking through this requires robust fundamental support [7]. - Consumer sentiment is currently low, with many potential buyers waiting for prices to drop to around 600-700 yuan per gram [7]. Institutional Perspectives - There are differing views among institutions regarding gold price forecasts: - Bullish outlooks from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict prices reaching 3700 USD (approximately 1120 yuan) by year-end and potentially challenging 4000 USD (around 1200 yuan) by 2026 [9]. - Bearish views from CITIC Securities and Citigroup suggest that if risk appetite declines and the dollar strengthens, prices could fall to 2500-2700 USD (approximately 600-650 yuan) [9]. - Neutral perspectives from Nanhua Futures expect prices to remain in the 1000-1100 yuan range with increased volatility but unlikely to break previous highs [9]. Conclusion - The likelihood of gold prices breaking 1200 yuan per gram in the near term is low, with a more probable scenario being a range of 1000-1100 yuan per gram through 2025, with the target of 1200 yuan potentially delayed until 2026 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The potential for gold prices to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 is supported by various market dynamics, institutional forecasts, and influencing factors [1][17]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have raised their forecasts multiple times, predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a possibility of $4,000 by mid-2026 due to geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and ongoing central bank purchases [1]. - The long-term upward cycle for gold remains intact, with significant support from central bank purchases, as global central banks have been net buyers for 16 consecutive years, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 [2][5]. - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could further weaken the dollar, which has already fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, potentially boosting gold prices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Structural Demand - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the fragility of Middle East ceasefire agreements and fluctuating U.S.-China tariff negotiations, may reignite safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The structural demand for gold is reinforced by the fact that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Risks to Price Increase - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3,165 per ounce, a technical correction of 10-15% could occur, potentially bringing prices down to the $2,500-$2,700 range [6]. - Current gold prices are detached from actual production costs, indicating a risk of valuation correction due to high price levels [7]. - If strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds occur, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, which could suppress gold prices [8]. Group 4: Institutional Divergence - There is a divergence among institutions regarding gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting $3,700, UBS over $3,500, while Citigroup warns of a potential drop to the $2,500-$2,700 range [11]. Group 5: Investor Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain rationality amid short-term volatility and avoid chasing price movements, as gold prices are highly sensitive to policy changes [12]. - A recommended allocation for gold in household financial assets is between 5-10%, with a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate timing risks [12]. - Key policy anchors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the political landscape surrounding U.S. elections [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing significant volatility, with daily fluctuations that do not correlate with previous days' movements [1] - The market is characterized by a "sweeping" approach, where price movements are unpredictable and require a focus on daily trends rather than long-term positions [1] - Key price levels have been identified, with resistance at 3350 and support around 3300, indicating a potential for further declines if these levels are breached [3] Group 2 - The analysis suggests a bearish outlook for gold, with expectations of further declines towards the 3280-3270 range, contingent on maintaining resistance below 3301 [3][4] - Specific trading strategies are outlined, including short positions at identified resistance levels and targets set for lower price points [4] - The importance of monitoring price action closely is emphasized, as significant rebounds could indicate potential reversals in the current downtrend [3]