Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and non-farm payroll data, which are expected to significantly impact gold market trends [1] Group 1 - Gold prices are experiencing a short-term cooling trend [1] - The Federal Reserve's decisions and non-farm payroll data are anticipated to determine the future direction of gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The week features significant events and data releases, including non-farm payrolls, PCE, and the Federal Reserve's decision [1][2] - Key financial reports are scheduled from major companies such as Boeing, Merck, Visa, Starbucks, HSBC, UBS, Meta, and Microsoft [2][3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. is set to begin, with a 50% import tariff on copper taking effect [3] Group 2 - Economic data releases include various indices and rates from the U.S., UK, Eurozone, and China, which will provide insights into economic performance [1][2][3] - The Canadian central bank's interest rate decision is anticipated, alongside the Federal Reserve's rate decision and economic outlook [2][3] - The week will conclude with the release of manufacturing PMIs and consumer confidence indices, which are critical for assessing economic health [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing a cautious bearish sentiment due to recent U.S. economic data, which has mitigated risk aversion despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][6] - Recent ETF gold holdings have shown a slight outflow, indicating a short-term recovery in market risk appetite, which is suppressing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The focus for gold prices next week will be on U.S.-EU and U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential optimism possibly pushing prices down to the $3300 per ounce level [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On a weekly chart, gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase, with a critical resistance level at $3325; prices above this level indicate a bullish trend [3] - Daily analysis shows that gold is currently testing support levels, with a risk of breaking below these levels, which could lead to a test of weekly support areas [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on selling during rebounds and buying on dips, with key resistance at $3355-$3365 and support at $3320-$3310 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is facing a weak downward trend, with U.S. crude oil trading around $65.04 per barrel, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.3% [6] - Recent price movements were influenced by unexpected declines in U.S. crude oil inventories and geopolitical tensions, particularly in Gaza, which have affected market sentiment [6] - Brent crude futures saw a slight increase, closing at $69.18 per barrel, driven by various factors including potential restrictions on Russian gasoline exports [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains bullish, with prices testing the $78 level, although recent MACD indicators suggest a weakening of bullish momentum [7] - Short-term trends indicate volatility, with frequent shifts between buying and selling pressure; the strategy recommends focusing on selling during price rebounds and buying on pullbacks [7] - Key resistance levels for oil are identified at $67.0-$68.0, while support levels are noted at $63.0-$62.0 [7]

首先，非农数据对美股市场的影响是直接且迅速的。非农就业人数的增加通常被视为经济健康的信号，因为这表明有 更多的美国人找到了工作，消费能力增强，企业盈利预期提高。在这种情况下，投资者往往会增加对股市的投资，推 动股市上涨。相反，如果非农数据不及预期，市场可能会担心经济增长放缓，导致股市下跌。 中叶私募：非农数据影响美股，黄金白银市场波动 非农数据，即美国非农就业人数报告，是全球金融市场最为关注的经济指标之一。它不仅反映了美国就业市场的状 况，也是美联储制定货币政策的重要依据。每当非农数据公布时，美股市场、黄金和白银等贵金属市场都会受到显著 影响，波动加剧。本文将深入分析非农数据对这些市场的具体影响，并探讨投资者应如何调整策略以应对市场变化。 此外，非农数据还可能影响美联储的利率决策，进而对股市产生间接影响。对于黄金和白银市场而言，非农数据的影 响则更为复杂。一方面，强劲的非农数据可能会提高市场对美联储加息的预期，从而增加持有美元资产的吸引力，减 少对黄金和白银等非生息资产的需求，导致金银价格下跌。另一方面，如果非农数据不佳，可能会引发市场对经济前 景的担忧，增加避险需求，从而推高金银价格。此外，金银价格还受到美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of non-farm payroll data in influencing gold investment opportunities, highlighting the relationship between market sentiment and economic indicators [1][3] - Investors should consider geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, as they can significantly impact gold prices following non-farm data releases [3][6] - The article suggests that short-term investors can take advantage of market volatility by employing strategies like buying low and selling high, while long-term investors should consider gradual accumulation during price dips [3][5] Group 2 - The performance of U.S. stock indices is noted to have an inverse correlation with gold prices, indicating that favorable non-farm data may lead to a shift of funds from gold to equities [4][6] - It is recommended that investors pay attention to insights from major brokerages and investment banks post non-farm data release to align with market trends [4][5] - The article advises on the importance of managing leverage and diversifying investments to mitigate risks associated with increased market volatility [5][6] Group 3 - Global economic trends, trade policies, and tariff adjustments are highlighted as factors that can have a profound effect on gold prices, necessitating a broader macroeconomic perspective [6][7] - The potential for diversification through silver and other precious metals is discussed, suggesting that investors consider these assets to spread risk [7][8] - The article encourages a rational mindset and dynamic strategy adjustments in response to changing market conditions, emphasizing the need for regular review of investment strategies [9]

美国非农数据是全球金融市场中的一个重要经济指标，通常于每个月的首周星期五公布，对市场的影响 深远，尤其是对现货黄金市场来说，非农数据的发布常常引发黄金价格的剧烈波动。因此，了解非农数 据及其与黄金价格之间的关联性，是投资者应对非农行情的必修课。本文中，领峰环球将详细介绍非农 数据的知识点，分析其与黄金价格的关系，并为投资者提供捕捉非农行情的实用建议。 一、非农数据是什么？ 非农数据是美国劳工部每月发布的一项重要经济报告，主要反映了美国境内非农业行业的新增就业人 数。具体来说，它包含了全美就业市场的综合表现，排除了政府部门、农业和自营职业的影响。因此， 非农数据对于衡量美国经济健康状况具有重要的参考价值。 非农数据的核心内容包括： 1.新增就业人数：指的是一个月内新增的非农业就业岗位数量。 理解非农数据与黄金价格之间的关系后，投资者可以通过以下几种方式把握非农期间的黄金交易机会。 2.失业率：反映劳动力市场中失业人口的比例。 3.平均小时工资：衡量劳动力市场中工资变化的趋势。 这些数据不仅反映了美国经济的就业情况，还能够揭示出潜在的经济增长动能，对金融市场具有重大影 响。投资者登录领峰环球官网、领峰环球官方AP ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - The overall gold price in domestic brand stores remains stable, with Chow Sang Sang gold price dropping by 7 yuan per gram, no longer being the highest-priced store [1] - Multiple gold stores are quoting 1005 yuan per gram, while Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 969 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 36 yuan per gram [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands are listed, with notable prices including Liufu at 1005 yuan per gram and Lao Feng Xiang at 1001 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Platinum and Recycling Prices - Platinum prices continue to decline, with Liufu's platinum jewelry priced at 559 yuan per gram, down by 2 yuan per gram [1] - The gold recycling price has slightly decreased by 2.4 yuan per gram, with various brand recycling prices showing significant differences [2] - The current gold recycling prices range from 757.70 yuan per gram to 770.70 yuan per gram across different brands [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold briefly surged but later retreated, closing at 3334.99 USD per ounce, with a gain of 0.27% [4] - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at 3310.35 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.74% [4] - The increase in gold prices last week was driven by concerns over U.S. tariffs and the passage of Trump's large infrastructure plan, but was limited by unexpectedly strong U.S. non-farm data [4]

Core Insights - The non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly strong, leading to fluctuations in the gold market [1] - There is ongoing speculation about when the gold market will break out of its current volatility [1] - Day traders are advised to consider their strategies for the evening session [1]

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 7 月 4 日 全球宏观 劳动力参与率三连降推动失业率意外放缓。6 月新增就业呈现出明显的结构性 特征：政府裁员、人工智能发展驱使科技行业主动裁员，压缩了对行政类和高 技能劳动者的需求。另一方面，特朗普政府收紧移民政策削弱了低技能劳动力 供给，使得部分服务型、劳动密集型行业面临人手短缺。新增移民锐减趋势 下，劳动力供给的减少意味着失业率分母基数的下降，也解释了为何在新增就 业放缓的背景下，失业率仍能从 4.2%回落至 4.1%，主要是由于劳动参与率 （由 4 月的 62.6%放缓至 6 月的 62.3%）下降而非就业需求的实质性改善。 后市观察：当前的经济数据格局为美联储维持观望立场提供了充分支撑。尽管 特朗普持续施压要求降息，并尽早提名新的美联储主席，且美联储主席鲍威尔 本周虽然表示 7 月降息选项"未排除"，但这更多是一种策略性表态，而非政 策立场的实质性转变。从技术层面看，领先指标的初请失业金人数仍维持在相 对较低位置，劳动力市场韧性依然存在。美联储当前的核心关切仍是防范通胀 风险，特别是关税政策可能带来的夏季价格上涨压力。在经济基本面尚能承 受、劳动力市场保持相对 ...

今日周五（7月4日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于774.02元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报775.20元/ 克，下跌0.46最高触及776.92元/克，最低下探773.50元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 受非农数据利空影响，黄金短期承压但技术面仍守关键支撑，当前维持3250-3400美元区间震荡。从波 浪结构观察，当前或处于Y浪调整末期，需重点关注多空分水岭突破情况。日线级别维持上升楔形整 理，MACD处于零轴附近待方向抉择，周线3247美元为关键多空分界，失守则确认中期调整趋势，上方 3400美元为历史压力转化区，需配合基本面改善方可突破。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 核心支撑位：短期支撑：3310-3300美元（7月4日非农数据低点）；中期关键支撑：3247美元（6月30日 阶段性低点，Y浪调整理论目标位） 美国总统特朗普表示，他将于周五开始致函贸易伙伴，设定单边关税税率，各国必须从8月1日开始支付 关税税率。大约"10到12封"信函将于星期五发出，"未来几天"还会有其他信件函出。 关键阻力位：短期压力：3350-3360美元（非农前密集成交区上沿）；中期强阻力：3400 ...