数据周报80（2025年7月28日-8月3日） 1.美国6月关税收入同比上涨320% 2.如何看待美国非农数据的大幅修正？ 3.国债恢复增收增值税有什么影响？ 4.中国离结比将上升至历史最高水平 5.下半年通胀会出现大幅反弹吗？ 6.宏观债务杠杆率首次突破300% 7.如何看待美国最新的"对等关税"？ 从数据层面观察，特朗普本轮贸易战可以说是已 "初见成效"。据智本社数据中心统计，2025 年 6 月美国商品贸易逆差显著收窄至 868 亿美元，较上月减 少 67 亿美元，较 2024 年同期减少 53 亿美元，这一表现明显超市场预期，展现出贸易失衡状况有所改善。 与此同时，美国进口商 6 月支付的关税收入持续攀升，单月已突破 266 亿美元，较上月增加 45 亿美元，较 2024 年同期更是激增 203 亿美元。 以当前数据趋势推算，未来关税每年将为美国带来超过 2000 亿美元的巨额财政收入。特朗普政府的政策是对外征税，对内减税。结合美国当前的财政状 况来看，这一重要收入来源对政府财政的支撑作用显著，未来无论哪一届政府，恐怕都难以轻易放弃。 2.如何看待美国非农数据的大幅修正？ 正文 1.美国6月关税收入同 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the precious metals market, with gold's non - farm data weakening and silver falling from a high. The trend strength for both gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Prices**: -沪金2510 closed at 770.72 with a daily increase of 0.06% and a night - session close of 781.12 with a 1.33% increase; Comex黄金2510 closed at 3416.00 with a 2.21% increase; London gold spot closed at 3362.09 with a 2.25% increase [2]. -沪银2510 closed at 8918 with a - 0.98% decrease and a night - session close of 8994.00 with a 0.80% increase; Comex白银2510 closed at 37.105 with a 0.86% increase; London silver spot closed at 37.025 with a 0.97% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: -沪金2510 contract's trading volume was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516 from the previous day, and its position was 218,768, an increase of 1,688 [2]. -沪银2510's trading volume was 587,441, a decrease of 513,199 from the previous day, and its position was 365,193, a decrease of 5,917 [2]. - **ETF Holdings**: - SPDR黄金ETF持仓 was 953.08, a decrease of 1; SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before yesterday) was 15,056.67, a decrease of 6 [2]. - **Inventory**: -沪金 inventory was 35,745 kg, an increase of 102 kg; Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 38,675,474 troy ounces, an increase of 161,012 troy ounces [2]. -沪银 inventory was 1,183,957 kg, a decrease of 24,076 kg; Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 505,219,644 troy ounces, an increase of 881,335 troy ounces [2]. - **Spreads**: - The spread between沪金2510 contract and 2512 contract was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516; the spread between沪银2510 contract and 2512 contract was - 8,261, an increase of 176 [2]. - The cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪金 December and selling June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪银 December and selling June was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - The US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.22, an increase of 0.23%; the euro to US dollar was 1.16 with no change; the US dollar to Japanese yen was 147.42, an increase of 0.05; the British pound to US dollar was 1.21 with no change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000 [3]. - Trump blamed the weak non - farm data on officials appointed by Biden and called for the dismissal of the Bureau of Statistics director [5]. - There is an "open" internal struggle within the Fed. Two senior officials said "employment remains robust", while two opponents issued a statement saying "waiting is a mistake" [5]. - Fed Governor Kugler announced her resignation on August 8 [7]. - Trump threatened sanctions and demanded that Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement before August 8. Putin said that if someone was disappointed with the results of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks so far, it was because of "over - expectations" [7]. - OPEC+ agreed in principle to significantly increase production again in September [6].

Group 1: Market Data - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% [4] - London gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46%; London silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [4] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 953.08 tons, down 0.15%; SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,056.66 tons, down 0.04% [4] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was 4.23%, down 0.14 percentage points; TIPS was 1.90%, down 0.08 percentage points [4] - The US dollar index was 98.69, down 1.36%; the offshore RMB was 7.2545, down 0.49% [4] - The Dow Jones Index was 43,588.58, down 1.23%; the S&P 500 was 6,238.01, down 1.60%; the Nasdaq Index was 20,650.13, down 2.24%; the VIX Index was 20.38, up 21.89% [4] - The London FTSE 100 was 9,068.58, down 0.70%; the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index was 40,799.60, down 0.66% [4] Group 2: Market Performance of Gold and Silver - COMEX gold closed at 3,416.00 dollars/ounce, up 2.21%; trading volume was 22.23 million lots, up 43.81%; open interest was 44.53 million lots, down 9.02%; inventory was 1,204 tons, up 0.10% [7] - LBMA gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46% [7] - SHFE gold closed at 770.72 yuan/gram, up 0.06%; trading volume was 22.64 million lots, down 30.20%; open interest was 43.16 million lots, up 0.44%; inventory was 35.75 tons, up 0.29%; precipitation funds were 53.229 billion yuan, up 0.50% [7] - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08%; trading volume was 24.78 tons, down 23.64%; open interest was 206.33 tons, down 1.85% [7] - COMEX silver closed at 37.11 dollars/ounce, up 0.86%; open interest was 17.03 million lots, down 1.93%; inventory was 15,759 tons, up 0.29% [7] - LBMA silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [7] - SHFE silver closed at 8,918.00 yuan/kilogram, down 1.00%; trading volume was 77.75 million lots, down 44.22%; open interest was 78.57 million lots, down 1.47%; inventory was 1,183.96 tons, down 1.99%; precipitation funds were 18.918 billion yuan, down 2.46% [7] - Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80%; trading volume was 421.57 tons, down 37.62%; open interest was 3,483.588 tons, up 1.26% [7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The much weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data reversed the previous market judgment on the resilience of the US economy; after the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy rebounded significantly [2][3] - The CME interest rate observer shows that the current market expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting has risen to 80.3%, and it is also expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [3] - With Trump's strong pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and the much lower-than-expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [3] - The precious metals strategy suggests buying on dips; the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 773 - 801 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8,885 - 9,287 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Price Comparison and Spread Analysis - Gold internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was -15.23 yuan/gram (-65.69 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was -13.61 yuan/gram (-58.87 dollars/ounce) [54] - Silver internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was 317.21 yuan/kilogram (1.37 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was 327.56 yuan/kilogram (1.42 dollars/ounce) [54]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in U.S. stock markets attributed to disappointing non-farm payroll data and political events affecting labor statistics and the Federal Reserve's independence [3][5][10]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2% [5][12]. - Revisions to previous months' data showed a downward adjustment, with May's figures revised from 144,000 to just 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs [5][12]. - Experts indicate that the labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, with hiring momentum weakening [5][6]. Group 2: Political Interference - President Trump ordered the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau Director shortly after the non-farm report was released, claiming the data was manipulated for political purposes [8][9]. - The dismissal raised concerns about the integrity of labor data collection and the potential for political influence on economic statistics [8][9]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Changes - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, effective August 8, raises concerns about the Fed's independence and potential political pressure on monetary policy [10][11]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged to 75.5% following the weak non-farm data and the personnel changes within the Fed [12][13]. - Market analysts suggest that the current environment may lead to increased pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, impacting overall economic conditions [10][12].

Group 1 - The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is a key economic indicator released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor, reflecting employment growth outside the agricultural sector [3][4] - NFP data significantly influences traditional financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, and is increasingly impacting the cryptocurrency market [4][22] - The relationship between NFP data and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) is becoming more pronounced, as these assets are now viewed similarly to risk assets and gold [4][22] Group 2 - Strong NFP data typically leads to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which can pressure risk assets like BTC, while weak data may enhance expectations for rate cuts, benefiting these assets [7][8] - The correlation between NFP data and cryptocurrency prices is evident, with altcoins often experiencing more volatility than BTC due to lower liquidity [8][5] - The increasing participation of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market is tying BTC and ETH prices more closely to macroeconomic indicators [4][22] Group 3 - In August, BTC experienced a pullback, testing a critical support level of $112,000, with expectations of a subsequent upward trend aligned with potential rate cuts in September [17][19] - ETH also faced a decline but is expected to test higher resistance levels, with significant trading volume indicating strong market interest from institutional investors [19][22] - The upcoming NFP data release is anticipated to influence both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of these financial ecosystems [21][22]

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000[1][11]. - The unemployment rate in July 2025 was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous 4.1%[1][14]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% and revised from a previous increase of 3.7%[1][14]. Data Revision Insights - The June non-farm payrolls were revised down by a total of 258,000, with significant downward adjustments in government, leisure, and construction sectors, accounting for 90,000 of the total revision[2][12]. - The downward revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating a decline in the accuracy of the "birth-death model" used for employment predictions[2][5]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities, education, and healthcare sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing stability in service sector demand[3][27]. - The goods-producing sector continued to show negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating weak production intentions among businesses[3][28]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in June, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][35]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2%[4][35]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with market predictions indicating three rate cuts in 2025, starting in September with an 83.4% probability[5][26]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with the second quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, but core GDP growth showing signs of decline[5][23].

Core Viewpoint - The July employment data in the U.S. showed a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, which is below the expected 104,000. Additionally, the data for the previous two months was notably revised downwards by a total of 258,000 jobs [1][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The July employment report indicated a reduction of 10,000 jobs in the government sector, while the private sector added 83,000 jobs, which is below the expected 100,000. The healthcare (+79,000), retail trade (+16,000), and finance (+15,000) sectors were the main contributors to job growth, whereas professional and business services (-14,000), manufacturing (-11,000), and government (-10,000) sectors were the main detractors [3][20]. - The employment diffusion index, which measures the breadth of employment growth, increased to 51.2% in July from 47.2% previously, but the three-month average remains low at 49%, significantly below the projected 53.8% for 2024 [3][20]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) rose slightly from 4.12% to 4.25% in July, with the rate for new entrants to the job market increasing from 0.42% to 0.58%. The permanent unemployment rate remained stable at 1.11%. Notably, the number of individuals transitioning from employment to unemployment increased significantly, reflecting a weakening trend in household surveys [21][22]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Response - The Federal Reserve decided not to cut interest rates in its July meeting, with two members voting against the decision. The weak non-farm payroll data somewhat supported their stance. Market expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with the probability rising to 80.3% from 37.7% [4][25][26]. - The market reacted negatively to the significant slowdown in non-farm data, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy. This led to declines in major stock indices and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant downward revisions in U.S. non-farm employment data, indicating potential issues with data accuracy and reliability, raising concerns about the underlying economic conditions [1][4][19] Group 1: Employment Data Revisions - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000, marking the largest downward adjustment since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The revisions included a downward adjustment of 125,000 jobs for May, changing from +144,000 to +19,000, and a reduction of 133,000 jobs for June, from +147,000 to +14,000 [2][7] Group 2: Data Collection Challenges - The accuracy of employment reports is being challenged by a declining response rate from businesses and households participating in government surveys, with recent response rates dropping below 60%, compared to pre-pandemic levels of over 70% [10][12] - The Labor Statistics Bureau's ability to collect and analyze economic data is being hampered by budget cuts and resource constraints, particularly highlighted during the Trump administration [15][16] Group 3: Underlying Issues - The decline in survey participation is attributed to long-standing social and institutional factors, including public fatigue with surveys and eroding trust in government institutions [13][14] - Economic policy changes under the Trump administration may have further exacerbated the quality of data, as businesses struggle to adapt to rapid policy shifts [17]

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm employment data shows a significant downward revision in previous months, indicating an overestimation of employment levels, particularly in government sectors. The overall labor market is cooling down, with rising unemployment rates and declining labor participation rates [2][3][5]. Employment Data Revision - The July non-farm employment recorded an increase of 73,000 jobs, but previous months' data were heavily revised downwards. June's employment was adjusted from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [3][2]. Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, while the U6 unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%. This indicates a broad cooling of the job market, with a decrease in labor participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest since the beginning of 2023 [5][6]. Sector-Specific Employment Changes - Job growth in July was concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, with retail, education, and financial activities seeing the most significant increases. However, government employment decreased by 10,000 jobs, marking the third negative month this year, with substantial downward revisions in previous months [6][2]. Labor Market Supply and Demand - As of June, job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.44 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%. The labor supply-demand gap recorded 422,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [8]. Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings in July increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9%. However, long-term trends show a slowdown in wage growth since November 2024 [9][10]. Real Wage Growth - The real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, showed a year-over-year increase of 1% in June, down by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. This indicates stable wage income growth [10]. Sectoral Wage Changes - In July, the highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively. Conversely, the slowest growth was in public utilities and construction, with declines of approximately 0.7 and 0.2 percentage points [12]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts in September have increased, with the probability rising from 40% to 80%. The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has also increased from 1.3 to 2.2 [16].

gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部 8 月 1 日公布数据 ， 7 月美国就业数据显著 走低 。 7 月新增非农 7.3 万人，低于预期的 10.4 万人。 此外，前两月数据显著下修， 5 月和 6 月数据共下修 25.8 万人， 5 月数据下修 12.5 万人至 1.9 万人， 6 月数据下修 13.3 万人至 1.4 万人。 由于几天前公布的美国二季度 GDP 数据、 7 月"小非农" ADP 就业数据均比较高，导致预期差就更明显。 第二， 为何 非农数据波动那么大 ？ 实际上，近年非农数据的波动变得非常频繁，修正幅度有时也比较大，我们理解其背后可能"一套已经存在技术问题的统计方 法 vs 越来越复杂的现实"。一则是企业生死模型（ NBD ）的技术性失真。 NBD 模型假定企业新成立与倒闭所带来的就业净增长是相对稳定的，但近年的复杂宏 观环境打破了这一假设；二是季节调整技术的落后也是部分月份数据偏差的另一个原因， 在经济发生结构性变化时，季节性调整模型可能无法立即适应，从而使得 初始就业数据偏离实际情况， 带来 后续 大幅 修正 ；三是 BLS 调查 ...