分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货-沪铜2026年报 --宏观基本面共振，铜市熊短牛长 核心观点 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 ➢ 宏观方面：海外方面，2025年特朗普再次任美国总统，自任职起全球贸易冲突开始，资金避险情绪高涨，有色金属、贵金属连续上涨，同时 对中国铜开启232关税调查且征收铜关税，吸引跨地区套利，导致全球铜供应结构失衡。美联储年内三次降息，美元连续下挫，支撑铜价上移， 明年预计美联储主席换届后依旧保持宽松预期。国内方面，年内反内卷举措加速供应侧产能优化升级，带动市场积极性，发改委指出铜冶炼 等强资源约束型产业要强化管理、优化布局，2026年正值"十五五" 规划的初期阶段，十五五规划将新能源产业列为战略性新兴支柱产业， 而铜作为新能源的工业血液，正在重塑全球经济版图。 ➢ 供给方面：年内多发铜矿事故扰动，加速铜供应 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-29 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-29 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 全国财政工作会议：2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策 观点分享： 12 月 27 日至 28 日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加 积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组 合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优 化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | PX | ★★★★ | PX：高位震荡市，节前注意仓位管理。供应端边际宽松，目前中化泉州 80 万吨/年 PX 装置 检修中，大连福佳一套 100 万吨/年 PX 装置正在重启，天津石化 38 万吨/年 PX 装置 23 日 停车，其他 PX 装置基本保持高负荷运行，国内 PX 开工在 88.2%（+0.1%）。海外装置方 面，PTTG54 万吨装置近期重启，GS55 万吨装置计划 1 月 ...

沪指强势八连阳，上周站稳3900点。万得全A上涨2.78%，中证A500涨2.75%，中证2000涨3.06%。沪深两市日均成交 额为1.95万亿，较上周放量约2500亿。行业方面，中信一级行业中，多数板块上涨，有色金属和基础化工板块领涨， 商贸零售、银行和煤炭板块下跌。 经济数据方面，上周公布11月工业企业利润数据。 11月工业企业利润同比延续下降态势，降幅扩大至13.1%，创2024年9月以来最低水平。同期营业收入同比增速小幅回 升至-0.3%。从量、价及利润率三项因素拆分来看，价格因素基本持平，工业增长有所回暖，利润增速下行主要受利 润率大幅回落拖累。长江证券认为年末在外需支撑减弱，内需并未明显改善的情况下，企业经营压力或仍在不断累 积，且有进一步传导到就业市场的趋势。 资金面方面，上周两融余额规模再度回升，周度均值达2.53万亿元，反映市场情绪仍处于较强状态。上周港股资金小 幅流出，南向资金单周合计流出11.75亿元。 来源：WIND 海外方面，上周美国三季度GDP出炉，数据强势；美多位官员发声，降息预期再度加强，大宗商品表现强势，尤其贵 金属表现亮眼，金银铜价均创历史新高。 美国第三季度GDP创两年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to record highs, surpassing $80 per ounce for the first time, driven by speculative trading and supply shortages, with a notable increase of 165% year-to-date [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Silver reached an all-time high of $84 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline, highlighting the volatility driven by profit-taking among speculative investors [1]. - The recent six-day rally in silver prices has resulted in a cumulative increase of approximately 25%, marking the largest six-day gain since 1950 [1]. - The price of silver has been influenced by significant inflows of speculative funds and a supply mismatch in global commodity markets [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories rapidly depleting, leading to a supply squeeze [7]. - In 2025, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces, while supply is expected to be only 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [7]. - The primary reason for the supply constraints is the rigid nature of global mining supply, as silver is often a byproduct of copper and zinc mining, and new mines take over a decade to develop [7]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Future Projections - Analysts suggest that the current surge in silver prices is driven by macroeconomic factors, including expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, tight supply conditions, and strong industrial demand narratives [8]. - The World Silver Association highlights that the growth in demand for silver is supported by trends in AI data centers, electrification, and the transition to electric vehicles, with significant growth rates projected for these sectors [8][9]. - Some analysts predict that silver could reach $100 per ounce, driven by ongoing industrial demand and investment flows, with expectations of continued price increases until at least 2026 [10].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The gas turbine market is expected to remain tight until 2029, with the order-to-supply ratio projected to increase from 5.15 in 2025 to 5.9 by 2027, indicating strong demand [1][2] - Major players like Siemens and GE are expected to sign a combined 74 GW of new orders in 2025, accounting for 60% of the global gas turbine market [1][2] - The total global order backlog is estimated to reach approximately 230 GW, significantly exceeding the 2025 production capacity of 45 GW [1][2] Demand Drivers - Demand in 2025 is primarily driven by AI data centers, non-AI replacements in the U.S., and global non-U.S. demand, totaling around 80 GW, with expectations to rise to 150 GW in 2026 [1][4] - The U.S. accounts for less than 40% of global demand, while regions like the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and Africa represent over 60% [1][4] Future Projections - By 2028, the global order backlog could reach 500 GW, with demand increasing to 190 GW, although production capacity is limited to 80-90 GW due to constraints in key components like turbine disks and high-temperature blades [1][4] Company Insights Jereh Corporation - Expected profit for 2025 is approximately 3 billion CNY, increasing to at least 3.3 billion CNY in 2026, corresponding to a market value of 60-70 billion CNY [1][9] - The gas turbine business is projected to be revised upwards to 400 MW, contributing 3.5 billion CNY in revenue and 700 million CNY in profit, potentially adding 20-30 billion CNY in market value [1][9] - The liquid cooling business may contribute an additional 10 billion CNY in market value, leading to an overall market value expectation of 100-110 billion CNY [1][9] Binlun Environment - Positioned among the top three in North America for liquid cooling equipment, with new orders expected to reach 1.6 billion CNY in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 300% [3][10] - HRSG business revenue is projected at 1 billion CNY for 2025, with a target of 1.5 billion CNY for the following year [3][10] - Collaboration with Hyundai Heavy Industries to expand overseas markets indicates strong growth potential [3][10] Market Trends - The gas turbine market is anticipated to grow significantly due to increasing electricity demand, particularly driven by AI [6][7] - By 2030, AI is expected to contribute an additional 200 GW to U.S. electricity demand, a figure significantly higher than some reports suggest [7] Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Jereh, Haomai, Yingliu, Liande, Boyin, Wande, and Changbao are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their growth prospects [8] - Jereh and Binlun are expected to outperform market expectations, with Jereh's market value potentially reaching 100 billion CNY and Binlun at 30 billion CNY based on their business development and market conditions [5][15] Conclusion - The gas turbine market is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand, particularly from AI applications. Companies like Jereh and Binlun are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, presenting attractive investment opportunities.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][3] Core Insights - The report highlights the opportunity for gas turbine development driven by the demand for electricity, particularly due to AI data centers and recent power outages in California [2][3] - GE Vernova anticipates signing contracts for 80GW of combined cycle gas turbines by the end of 2025, with an upward revision of revenue expectations from $45 billion to $52 billion by 2028 [3] - The report emphasizes the supply-demand mismatch in electricity, indicating that gas turbine generators have significant growth potential in the short term [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of recent power outages in California, affecting 130,000 households and businesses, and the increasing focus of AI companies on electricity supply [3] - The report identifies gas turbines as a stable and efficient power generation technology, suitable for meeting the short-term electricity demands of AI data centers [4] Supply Chain Analysis - The gas turbine supply chain includes upstream companies providing key components such as high-temperature alloys and turbine blades, with notable companies like Linde Co., Yingliu Co., and Haomai Technology [5][6] - Midstream companies responsible for gas turbine generator development include Jereh Group, Dongfang Electric, and Shanghai Electric [7] - Downstream applications involve companies like Jereh Group and Xizi Clean Energy, which provide essential components for gas turbine power generation [9] Company Focus - Jereh Group is highlighted as a leading company in oil service equipment, with significant growth potential in the AI data center electricity sector, supported by strategic partnerships and contracts exceeding $100 million [10][11] - Linde Co. is recognized for its precision casting capabilities in gas turbine components, with expected growth in orders due to increasing demand from AI data centers [13] - Yingliu Co. specializes in high-end castings for gas turbines, maintaining strong partnerships with major players like GE and Siemens, positioning itself well for future growth [14] - Haomai Technology benefits from the expansion of AI data centers and the resulting demand for gas turbine generators [15]

据杰瑞股份消息，12月25日，杰瑞敏电能源集团与川崎重工能源集团举行燃气轮机战略合作签约仪式。 公司表示，此次签约标志着双方在燃气发电领域的伙伴关系迈入新阶段，将共同为全球AI数据中心、 工业制造及油气能源等领域提供电力解决方案。 ...

1 | 型结构钽电容产品，可以广泛应用于高端消费电子、AI数据 | | --- | | 中心、企业级ESSD、汽车电子、工业控制等领域。 | | 公司长期致力于新材料、新技术研究和新产品开发,在 | | 满足全球高端电子制造企业严苛的品质需求以及建立安全 | | 供应链的基础上,通过持续创新满足全球高端电子制造企业 | | 的发展需要,开拓市场应用领域,为公司稳健增速发展奠定 | | 坚实的基础。 | | 目前公司各类钽电容产品，为客户配套供应产品线，客 | | 户认可度高，市场及客户层面持续推动中。 | | 3、请问公司对汽车电子业务的未来展望？ | | 回答： | | 汽车电子业务是公司战略发展的重要业务领域之一。通 | | 过不断深入探索产品组合，公司汽车电子产品已实现三电系 | | 统等电动化场景全面覆盖，并延伸至智能驾驶、智能座舱等 | | 全方位智能化应用场景覆盖。目前公司汽车电子业务已实现 | | 全球顶级汽车电子及新能源汽车头部客户的全面覆盖。 | | 公司看好汽车电子领域的发展前景（车规业务对公司来 | | 说是一个数百亿元的大市场，公司将立足于技术、工艺、制 | | 造的优势，不断拓展车规 ...

Arya 依然保持乐观，认为当前的投入既具有"进攻性"，也具有"防御性"。换言之，科技巨头别无选 择，必须投资以守住他们现有的商业帝国。 Arya特别提到，英伟达就像是在"另一个星系"中运营。年初至今，英伟达股价已累计上涨超40%，过高 的估值令部分投资者"望而却步"。 12月25日，美国银行分析师Vivek Arya表示，人工智能（AI）热潮并未降温，反而正在进一步扩大。 尽管一些AI怀疑论者认为过高的估值是回避该板块的理由，但Arya认为，这一行业仍处在为期十年的 结构性变革"中点"，而这场变革是由英伟达和博通引领的。 Arya在题为《2026年展望：颠簸但仍充满希望》的报告中预计，明年全球半导体销售额将同比增长 30%，这将最终推动该行业首次突破具有里程碑意义的1万亿美元年销售额。 Arya指出，他尤其看好那些"护城河可以通过利润率结构量化"的公司。除英伟达和博通外，他还将泛林 集团、科磊、亚德诺以及铿腾电子列为2026年的首选标的。 "我经常说，投资半导体其实很简单，"Arya在12月19日电话会议上表示，"你根本不需要卖方分析师。 只要把所有公司按毛利率排序，买前五名，基本不会错得太离谱。" 美银预 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 蘅东光（920045.BJ） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 | 交易数据 | 总市值（百万元） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 流通市值（百万元） | 总股本（百万股） | 57.82 | | | 流通股本（百万股） | 个月价格区间 | 12 | / | | 李蕙 | 分析师 | 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 | SAC | | lihui1@huajinsc.cn | 戴筝筝 | 报告联系人 | | | daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn | | | | 相关报告 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（陕西旅 游）-2025 年 109 期-总第 635 期 2025.12.19 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（江天科 技）-2025 年 108 期-总第 634 期 2025.12.18 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（新广益） -2025 年 107 期-总第 633 期 2025.12.18 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（强一股 份）-2025 年 106 期-总第 632 期 ...