Core Insights - OpenAI Chairman Bret Taylor acknowledges the existence of an "AI bubble," which he describes as a "virtuous cycle" [1] - Taylor compares the current AI landscape to the internet boom of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, suggesting that while significant economic value will be created, the bubble will eventually burst, leading to losses for many investors [3] Group 1 - Taylor agrees with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's statement that there will always be significant financial losses in the AI sector [1] - He believes that the AI industry carries substantial risks, but these risks are minor compared to the opportunities available [3] - Taylor reflects on his experience in the internet industry, noting that despite the bubble bursting and many companies failing, those involved at the time did not make mistakes in their investments [3] Group 2 - Bret Taylor's background includes leadership roles at Google and Twitter, and he became the Chairman of OpenAI in 2023 [5]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：Harry文社） 凌晨两点的华盛顿，一场没有硝烟的"内战" 2025年9月17日，美联储埃克尔斯大楼地下二层，咖啡味混着打印机碳粉味。走廊尽头，理事沃勒把一 张折成四折的A4纸塞进布雷纳德手里——纸上只有一行手写体："25 or 50？This is not math, this is religion." 是的，降息多少已不再是经济学，而是信仰。鸽派把2.2万的新增就业看作"衰退先兆"，鹰派把3.3%的 核心通胀预测当成"撒旦之火"。鲍威尔必须在午夜前让12个人在一张声明上签字，而市场已经把预期打 到"9月100%降息"的铜墙铁壁上。 这一幕，像极了1979年沃尔克反通胀的镜像：当年是"加息到地球毁灭"，今天是"降息到宇宙尽头"。历 史不会重复，却爱开彩蛋。 （二）"数据打架"现场：同一组数字，三种剧本 1. 就业：2.2万新增就业 vs. 4.3%失业率 鸽派说"就业塌方"，鹰派说"劳动力市场只是退烧"，而交易员的解读最简洁：萨姆规则（失业率三个月 均值较前12个月低点上升0.5%以上）已亮红灯，衰退概率飙至62%。 2. 通胀：CPI 2.6% vs. 核心服务5.1% 鸽派盯的 ...

Group 1 - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun announced that the new Xiaomi 17 series will directly compete with the iPhone, marking a significant upgrade in product capabilities [2][4] - The Xiaomi 17 series includes three models: Xiaomi 17, Xiaomi 17 Pro, and Xiaomi 17 Pro Max, with a naming convention similar to the iPhone 17 series [5] - Xiaomi has been pursuing a high-end strategy for five years, learning from its greatest competitor, Apple, and is confident in facing the iPhone head-on [4] Group 2 - Amazon Web Services (AWS) denied reports of layoffs in its Greater China region, stating that the reports were grossly inaccurate and that the company continues to actively recruit talent in China [14] - Despite the denial, AWS has faced restructuring, with some departments experiencing layoffs affecting hundreds of positions [16] Group 3 - OpenAI's chairman Brett Taylor discussed the current "AI bubble," describing it as a "virtuous cycle" that will create significant economic value in the future, similar to the internet boom of the late 20th century [27][29] - Taylor acknowledged the risks associated with the AI industry but emphasized that these risks are minor compared to the opportunities available [29]

Market Overview - Investors are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week, with strong performance in tech stocks leading the S&P 500 to surpass 6600 points and the Nasdaq achieving a record closing high for six consecutive days [2] - Tesla shares rose over 7% during the day, recovering losses from the year, while Google saw a nearly 4.5% increase, reaching a market capitalization of $3 trillion [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.87%, approaching its January 2022 high, amid a consensus framework reached between China and the U.S. regarding TikTok [2][8] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down by 3.45 basis points, and the dollar index dropped by 0.35%, falling below the 97 support level [2] Key News - China and the U.S. reached a basic framework consensus to properly resolve the TikTok issue, emphasizing cooperation and reducing investment barriers [3][8] - China's economic data for August showed signs of "industrial slowdown, weak investment, and subdued consumption," leading to expectations for a new round of policy easing [9] - The U.S. reduced import tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15% effective from September 16 [10] - Trump proposed changing the requirement for companies to report earnings quarterly to semi-annually, which could increase market volatility and uncertainty [12] - The Chinese government is taking further antitrust actions against Nvidia for violating conditions related to its acquisition of Mellanox [13] Company Developments - Musk invested $1 billion to increase his stake in Tesla, which saw a 7.5% intraday rise, erasing its year-to-date losses [13] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, saw its stock rise by 4.8%, pushing its market cap above $3 trillion [14] - Apple’s new iPhone 17 series is seeing strong demand, particularly for the Pro Max model, while Xiaomi is positioning its new 17 series to directly compete with Apple [15] - JPMorgan downgraded Pop Mart's rating to "neutral" due to its stock price having risen 209% this year, indicating that the valuation has reached perfect expectations [17] - Citigroup raised the target price for Shenghong Technology to 447 yuan, citing an accelerating AI-PCB supercycle and ongoing supply-demand tightness [17] Industry Insights - The Chinese government is promoting a unified national market, emphasizing the need for open and standardized market practices [16] - The automotive industry is adopting a "60-day payment term" initiative to enhance supply chain resilience and protect supplier rights [18] - The laser radar market is experiencing growth as costs decrease, with significant orders being placed by leading companies in the autonomous driving sector [26] - The medical device industry in Shanghai is set to expand significantly, with plans to increase the number of approved high-end medical devices by 2027 [25]

根据美国人口普查局公布的对数万家企业进行的双周商业调查，美国企业对AI的应用似乎出现了阶段 性回落。在员工规模超过250人的大型企业中，AI在生产与服务中的应用比例在6月曾达到15%的峰 值，而到8月底则回落至约11%。中小型企业也呈现出类似的下降趋势。 他认为："当前的AI发展轨迹与以往的技术热潮并无本质不同。AI在服务业中的应用潜力尤为广阔，预 计将进入加速发展阶段。更值得注意的是，AI在制造业中也正逐步实现关键突破。将AI融入全面数字 化与自动化的生产系统，将显著推动生产力提升。因此，我并不认为AI的热潮已经结束。" 部分企业对AI应用失去耐心 UBS认为，AI变现潜力仍在持续扩大。 人工智能（AI）热潮是否正在降温？ 尽管如此，当前AI的实际使用率仍显著高于去年同期水平，为去年同期的两倍以上。尤其在金融、科 技及法律服务等行业，AI的渗透仍在持续深化。 罗兰贝格全球管理委员会联席总裁戴璞（Denis Depoux）近日在接受第一财经采访时表示，正常的技术 周期通常会经历一个高速增长阶段，随后市场出现一定收缩，有时甚至显得较为剧烈，但他认为目前并 未看到AI泡沫出现剧烈破裂的迹象。 所谓"AI泡沫"真的 ...

Taylor 指出，"AI将改变经济"和"很多人会亏钱"这两个论点能同时成立，且历史上有不少类似先例，这 意味着当下巨额投资虽不一定让所有参与者获利，但都在为下一代AI应用奠定基础。对于市场上关于 AI投入产出比的质疑，Taylor认为是主要是市场不成熟，很多企业进行"AI观光"，试图自行构建复杂且 易失败的解决方案，而正确做法是购买专注于特定领域的成熟AI解决方案，随着应用型AI公司变多， 企业就能更直接获取解决方案价值的AI Agent，实现AI价值。（广角观察） 钛媒体App 9月15日消息，据报道，OpenAI董事长Bret Taylor近日表示，当下我们确实身处AI泡沫之 中，但这不会阻碍AI最终创造巨大经济价值。Taylor将目前的AI热潮和互联网泡沫进行直接对比，他提 到，当时有许多公司在互联网泡沫破裂后倒下，但从长远来看，1999年那些人对互联网未来的判断在某 种程度上是正确的，如今亚马逊和谷歌等诞生于那个时代的企业，已成为全球市值最高的企业之一，这 显示泡沫下的远见是能兑现的。关键在于区分方向的正确性与具体投资标的成功率。 ...

AI领域的狂热情绪正引发一场关于"泡沫"的激烈辩论，而OpenAI董事会主席Bret Taylor对此给出了一个 明确但复杂的答案：我们确实身处泡沫之中，但这并不妨碍AI最终创造巨大的经济价值。 近日，在接受媒体The Verge采访时，Bret Taylor赞同了OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman先前的观点，承 认"我们正处于AI泡沫中，有人将损失一大笔钱"。 Taylor警告称，与任何颠覆性技术浪潮一样，这一过程将不可避免地产生巨大的赢家，同时也会让许多 人损失惨重。他同时认为，AI将改变经济格局并创造巨大价值，这与市场存在泡沫，是两个可以同时 成立的事实。 Taylor将当前的AI热潮与上世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫进行了直接比较。他指出，尽管当时无数公司在 泡沫破裂中倒下，但从长远来看，"1999年的那些人（对互联网未来的判断）在某种程度上是正确的"。 如今，亚马逊和谷歌等诞生于那个时代的公司已成为全球市值最高的企业之一，证明了泡沫下的远见最 终能够兑现： "实际上，如果你看看世界的GDP，互联网的存在实际上创造了多少或影响了互联网？有人 可能会说，1999年的所有人都是对的。它对几乎所有指标都 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industry is currently in an AI bubble, leading to significant potential losses for many investors, as stated by Bret Taylor, Chairman of OpenAI [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - Bret Taylor agrees with Sam Altman's assertion that substantial financial losses will occur in the AI sector [1] - Taylor believes that AI will transform the economy and create immense economic value, similar to the internet [1] - The current AI development landscape is compared to the late 1990s internet bubble, where many companies failed but the overall direction was not incorrect [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "Anything But Bonds" (ABB) trading strategy to the "Anything But The Dollar" (ABD) paradigm, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investment strategies [1]. Market Expectations - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut, which is perceived as credible amid a backdrop of accelerating U.S. economic growth [2]. - The current market reaction suggests a resurgence of risk parity strategies, breaking through highs for 2024 [2]. Asset Performance - Year-to-date, asset performance has shown significant divergence, with gold leading at a 38% increase, outperforming global equities (25%) and Bitcoin (23%) [4]. - In contrast, the dollar and oil have been the biggest losers, down 10% and 13% respectively, supporting the view of a weakening dollar [5]. Economic Growth and Market Trends - Hartnett predicts that U.S. nominal GDP growth, which surged by 54% since 2020, will peak in 2025, slowing from a 6% annual growth rate to 4% due to weakening government spending and labor market conditions [9]. - The peak in nominal growth typically signals a peak in bond yields, suggesting the end of a prolonged bear market in bonds by 2025 [13]. Investment Opportunities - The end of the ABB trading cycle is expected to benefit long-neglected, interest-sensitive assets such as small-cap and value stocks, which are currently at near-historic low rolling return rates compared to large-cap stocks [14][13]. - Hartnett emphasizes the importance of embracing the ABD theme, advocating for investments in non-dollar assets, particularly in international markets, as the dollar weakens and fiscal expansions occur in Europe and Japan [16]. AI Bubble and Credit Market Risks - While AI remains a bright spot in the market, there are risks associated with the rapid increase in capital expenditures for AI, which have surged from 35% to 72% of cash flow in 2023 [18]. - The technology sector's credit spreads are at their narrowest since 1997, indicating a lack of concern among credit investors regarding the risks associated with the AI sector's spending [20]. Policy, Profits, and Political Landscape - Hartnett uses the "PPP" framework to analyze the current situation, noting that the Fed's anticipated rate cuts are seen as preemptive, which has led to a narrowing of credit spreads and a rise in interest-sensitive stocks [24]. - The labor market is weak, with an average of only 64,000 new jobs added monthly over the past six months, but this is offset by a strong "K-shaped" wealth effect [25]. - Political risks are rising due to populism, high inflation, and significant wealth disparity, which may lead to policies reminiscent of the early 1970s aimed at reducing unemployment while controlling inflation [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The market paradigm is shifting from "Anything But Bonds" (ABB) to "Anything But The Dollar" (ABD), driven by the peak in U.S. nominal GDP growth, leading to a weaker dollar and a return of the bond bull market [1][3][12] Group 1: Market Trends - The anticipated end of the ABB trading logic will occur as nominal GDP growth in the U.S. is expected to peak in 2025, slowing from 6% to 4% due to weakening government spending and labor market [9][12] - Major asset performance has shown significant divergence this year, with gold leading at a 38% increase, while the dollar and oil have declined by 10% and 13% respectively, supporting the view of a weakening dollar [5][12] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The new investment theme for 2025 is ABD, suggesting a focus on non-dollar assets as the dollar weakens and fiscal expansion occurs in Europe and Asia [13] - Gold is highlighted as a strategic asset for hedging against risks of government instability and dollar depreciation, with expectations for further price increases [13] Group 3: AI Bubble and Credit Market - The capital expenditure for AI is rapidly increasing, with spending on data centers rising from 35% to 72% of cash flow, indicating a growing reliance on debt financing [14][16] - The credit spread in the tech sector is at its narrowest since 1997, suggesting a lack of concern among credit investors regarding the risks associated with the AI sector [16] Group 4: Policy, Profits, and Politics - The market perceives the Fed's rate cuts as preemptive, which has led to a narrowing of credit spreads and a rise in interest-sensitive stocks, but caution is advised if certain market indicators reverse [19] - Weak labor market conditions are being offset by a strong wealth effect, with significant increases in household equity wealth projected for 2024 and 2025 [20] - Rising populism poses social risks in the U.S., with high inflation and unemployment potentially leading to policies reminiscent of the early 1970s, which could further support gold and cryptocurrency prices [21]