Core Insights - The article focuses on the analysis of real-time gold order flows in relation to the upcoming CPI data, highlighting the ongoing battle between bullish and bearish sentiments in the gold market [1] Group 1 - The current market conditions are being closely monitored as traders anticipate the impact of CPI data on gold prices [1] - Real-time analysis is being conducted to understand the signals provided by order flows in the gold market [1]

Report Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for each industry are provided in the report Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to the entry of long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, and the resurgence of market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; port inventories remain high, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - Due to the large arrival volume of soybeans and high - pressure oil extraction by oil mills, the inventories of three major oils are continuously rising; the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; however, palm oil is oscillating strongly due to the popular export, the rising expectation of biodiesel, and the rebound of international crude oil [7] - US tariff policies continue to pressure oil prices, PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials are differentiated, but the supply - demand of MEQ is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern livestock farmers are forced to cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while the south stabilizes the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference is gradually widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9] Summary by Industry Stock and Bond - Data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] Black - Under "anti - involution", finished steel supply may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to long - position funds, and the coke price increase by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures have escalated the trade war, market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Logs - Spot price is stable, expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, supply pressure eases, daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, raw material price has room to decline; port inventories remain high, and weak fundamentals cannot support continuous rise of rubber prices [6] Oils - Due to large soybean arrival and high - pressure oil extraction, inventories of three major oils are rising; supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; palm oil is oscillating strongly due to popular export, rising biodiesel expectation, and international crude oil rebound [7] Oil - related Chemicals - US tariff policies pressure oil prices, PX is destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening and follows cost fluctuations in the short term; raw materials are differentiated, but MEQ supply - demand is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] Livestock - Market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern farmers cut prices due to selling pressure, the south stabilizes the market by adjusting supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, regional price difference is widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9]

山海：黄金进入高位震荡中，关注CPI数据影响！ 上个交易日的市场表现不是很亮眼，没有什么重点消息面公布，我们可以从市场表现来看，多空双发均欲走出力度，其中，多头延续上 周五的力度多次走高至3375不破，空头则借机美盘市场走出较大调整空间，最低在3341附近，全盘上下有30多美金力度，不过整体来 看，还是多头表现，下跌力度不大，上涨空间不足，所以，整体是一个高位震荡表现。白银的表现就比较明显了，在连续上涨中走高至 39附近，美盘出现大跌至38.1，山海提示过大家周一不做白银的交易，观察为主，周二就要看这波白银是否可以做中长线空单，当然最 好是等今晚CPI数据公布后再确定。 本周行情的节奏要注意两点，第一多头是否延续，第二调整力度有多大，多头延续的话，上方就看3400得失，调整力度过大就要注意见 顶后的回落。周一黄金暂时三次不破3375，看来市场在3375这里有强压作用，所以，周二也要关注这个点位得失。周二重点行情在美 盘，亚欧盘预计有一个震荡上涨的空间，美盘公布cpi数据后再看多空的选择性，这就是上面说的看多头是否延续，或者空头开始调整。 从技术面来看，其实日线周期的上涨还没有走完，日线周期至少还要等一波上涨， ...

Economic Data - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2-M1 spread narrowing [1] - China's exports in June, measured in USD, grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.1% [1] - Rare earth exports reached the highest level since 2009, iron ore imports hit a year-to-date high, and steel exports in Q2 set a record [1] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index barely rose as investors awaited US inflation data [1] - Bitcoin experienced a pullback after reaching a new high [1] - Crude oil prices fell by 3% [1] Trade Relations - The EU is preparing to impose counter-tariffs on US goods worth 720 billion euros [1] - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if a peace agreement regarding Ukraine is not reached within 50 days [1] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk announced that a "monumental" demonstration of the next-generation Optimus robot is expected by the end of the year [1] - Meta is planning to invest hundreds of billions to build the world's largest data center and is considering shifting from open-source to closed-source [1] Upcoming Data Releases - China is set to release significant GDP data on Tuesday, while the US will announce June CPI data on the same day [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent short-term pullback in silver prices and how to identify entry points for short positions [1] - It highlights that the technical uptrend remains intact, emphasizing the importance of trading rhythm ahead of CPI data [1] - The article notes that ETF purchases exceeded one million ounces in a single day, indicating a resurgence of market activity reminiscent of January's price disparity crisis [1] Group 2 - A volatility warning is issued, indicating a 36% increase in prices that conceals a significant accumulation of short positions [1] - The article suggests that this level of volatility could trigger a "long-short squeeze" in the market [1]

Market Overview - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support for gold prices, while a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields limit its upward potential [1] - The complex signals from the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts add further uncertainty to gold price trends [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the current range, with a significant breakthrough above $3,400 being challenging unless there is a major escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [1] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [1] Gold Price Analysis - Gold experienced minimal fluctuations, primarily trading within the $3,310-$3,330 range, with a noted drop to $3,310 before rebounding [2] - The daily chart shows two consecutive small bullish candles, with gold still operating below the mid-band, indicating a relatively bullish trend despite the current position [2] - The hourly chart indicates that gold is currently around $3,327, with upward movement supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and bullish indicators suggesting a preference for long positions [2] Trading Recommendations - A recommendation to buy gold at $3,314-$3,317 with a stop loss at $3,309 and a take profit target of $3,330-$3,335 [3] - A recommendation to sell gold at $3,342-$3,345 with a stop loss at $3,350 and a take profit target of $3,325 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is currently experiencing a short-term oscillation, trading at $3,290 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.35% from the previous day, indicating a complex interplay between policy and risk factors affecting the market [1][3]. Market Analysis - The gold market is under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates, coupled with strong employment data and high inflation expectations, which are contributing to downward pressure on gold prices [3]. - Conversely, escalating trade conflicts and uncertainties in the global economic outlook are providing a support base for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The focus is on whether the support level at $3,250 will hold, while closely monitoring the Federal Reserve officials' statements and CPI data for potential directional breakthroughs [3]. Technical Analysis - The current market structure indicates that gold is undergoing its third pullback from the historical high of $3,500, with critical levels to watch being the resistance at $3,365 and support at $3,248 [4]. - A breakdown below the green line segment at $3,248 could lead to further declines towards $3,167, while the rebound strength at this level will be crucial for determining future trends [4]. - The short-term trading strategy suggests entering short positions around $3,300, with a protective stop at $3,315 and a target of $3,276, with further downside potential if the support at $3,247 is breached [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June 2025, with the decline attributed to three main factors [1] Group 1: Reasons for PPI Decline - The seasonal decline in prices of certain domestic raw material manufacturing industries contributed to the PPI decrease [1] - An increase in green electricity has led to a reduction in energy prices, impacting the PPI [1] - Price pressures in industries with a high proportion of exports have also contributed to the decline in PPI [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to wait for the second quarter CPI data before making any further interest rate cuts, despite market expectations for a third cut this year [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Expectations** - The market anticipates that the RBA will implement its third interest rate cut of the year on Tuesday, but there are calls for a more cautious approach [1]. - **Inflation Data Analysis** - Recent inflation data shows a generally mild performance, but there are "hot spots" with the quarterly core inflation rate recently reaching the upper end of the 2% to 3% target range [1]. - **RBA's Decision-Making Process** - Analysts believe that the RBA's monetary policy committee may choose to wait another month to obtain the latest inflation data, with cautious RBA Governor Philip Lowe likely advocating for patience [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unexpected lower-than-expected CPI data for May in the U.S., which has led to significant market reactions and speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][4] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year rate for May is reported at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, while the month-on-month CPI is at 0.1%, also lower than the anticipated 0.2% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, shows a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which is less than the expected 2.9%, and the month-on-month core CPI is at 0.1%, significantly below the forecast of 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Following the CPI announcement, market speculation surged, with a notable increase in bets on a potential interest rate cut in September, with probabilities nearing 70% for two cuts this year [4] - However, the probability for a rate cut in June remains very low at 2.4%, with a 97.6% chance of maintaining the current rate [5] Group 3 - The anticipation of interest rate cuts is expected to influence global financial markets, including the A-share market, as capital may flow into A-shares seeking opportunities [6] - The article highlights the volatility in the market, suggesting that retail investors may be misled by market fluctuations, akin to a magic show where the real mechanisms are hidden [6][8] Group 4 - The article discusses the behavioral finance concept of herd behavior, where retail investors tend to follow the crowd, leading to poor investment decisions [9] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional movements and data analysis to navigate market volatility effectively [10][17]