今日周三（7月9日)国际黄金目前交投于3290美元/盎司，下跌0.35%，最高触及3307.70美元/盎司，最低下探3284.79美元/盎司。目前来看，国际黄金短线偏 向震荡走势。 消息面解读：黄金目前处于政策与风险博弈的边缘。一方面，美联储"维持高利率"立场、强劲就业与高通胀预期令金价承压；另一方面，贸易冲突升级与全 球经济前景不确定性为黄金提供避险底部支撑。若FOMC纪要中释放更强烈的"耐心"信号，可能加剧金价下行压力。关注3250美元支撑区域是否守稳，同时 密切追踪美联储官员本周言论与CPI数据，寻找方向性突破契机。 黄金走势分析：黄金中期结构上来看，现在自3500历史高位回调走的是第三次回撤，这波回撤还在运行中，需要去关注回撤运行的点位去确认后市的趋势。 首先，关注一下绿色线段反弹3248这里能否有效下破，才能续看到3167位置；其次3167到达后关注反弹力度后再去顺推后市有没有可能跌下红色线段的起涨 点。现在从四小时级别上能明显得到信息有：本月的反弹3365是处于绿色线段起跌点之下，那么接下来这个位置作为短期高点关注，去延续看下行状态。故 中期结构上，阻力3365，支撑3248，操作上依托下行趋势选 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June 2025, with the decline attributed to three main factors [1] Group 1: Reasons for PPI Decline - The seasonal decline in prices of certain domestic raw material manufacturing industries contributed to the PPI decrease [1] - An increase in green electricity has led to a reduction in energy prices, impacting the PPI [1] - Price pressures in industries with a high proportion of exports have also contributed to the decline in PPI [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to wait for the second quarter CPI data before making any further interest rate cuts, despite market expectations for a third cut this year [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Expectations** - The market anticipates that the RBA will implement its third interest rate cut of the year on Tuesday, but there are calls for a more cautious approach [1]. - **Inflation Data Analysis** - Recent inflation data shows a generally mild performance, but there are "hot spots" with the quarterly core inflation rate recently reaching the upper end of the 2% to 3% target range [1]. - **RBA's Decision-Making Process** - Analysts believe that the RBA's monetary policy committee may choose to wait another month to obtain the latest inflation data, with cautious RBA Governor Philip Lowe likely advocating for patience [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unexpected lower-than-expected CPI data for May in the U.S., which has led to significant market reactions and speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][4] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year rate for May is reported at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, while the month-on-month CPI is at 0.1%, also lower than the anticipated 0.2% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, shows a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which is less than the expected 2.9%, and the month-on-month core CPI is at 0.1%, significantly below the forecast of 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Following the CPI announcement, market speculation surged, with a notable increase in bets on a potential interest rate cut in September, with probabilities nearing 70% for two cuts this year [4] - However, the probability for a rate cut in June remains very low at 2.4%, with a 97.6% chance of maintaining the current rate [5] Group 3 - The anticipation of interest rate cuts is expected to influence global financial markets, including the A-share market, as capital may flow into A-shares seeking opportunities [6] - The article highlights the volatility in the market, suggesting that retail investors may be misled by market fluctuations, akin to a magic show where the real mechanisms are hidden [6][8] Group 4 - The article discusses the behavioral finance concept of herd behavior, where retail investors tend to follow the crowd, leading to poor investment decisions [9] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional movements and data analysis to navigate market volatility effectively [10][17]

Group 1 - The recent ruling by the federal appeals court allows the continuation of tariffs, which is seen as a victory for Trump and poses new challenges for global trade [1] - The tariffs have led to a resurgence in domestic manufacturing, with General Motors announcing a $4 billion investment in U.S. factories to support American jobs and manufacturing [5] - Companies like Ford are responding to the tariff environment by increasing vehicle prices, indicating rising costs due to tariffs [6] Group 2 - The tariffs are causing significant disruptions in global supply chains, particularly in industries reliant on rare earth materials, with warnings about limited U.S. stockpiles [11] - The U.S. is struggling to find alternative sources for critical materials, highlighting the fragility of the current global supply chain [11] - The ongoing trade tensions are creating uncertainty in the global economy, with potential long-term implications for both large and small enterprises [19]

沪锡产业日报 2025-06-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 265150 | -380 7月-8月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 230 | 40 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32560 | -20 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 25639 | -523 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 4371 | 810 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2365 | -50 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7372 | -735 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 600 | 0 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6842 | 32 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 265300 | -500 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 265170 | -700 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 150 | -12 ...

Research Views Corn - The corn main contract increased in price with reduced positions on Wednesday. The July contract encountered resistance at the previous high. Spot prices in the Northeast continued to rise by 20 - 40 yuan/ton in the past two days. Deep - processing enterprises in the production area and North China also raised purchase prices. Shandong's deep - processing arrivals remained low, and prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hebei's prices went up by 15 - 30 yuan/ton, while Henan's were basically stable. Prices in the sales area rose widely, but high - price corn had limited transactions, and wheat substitution continued. Technically, short - position holders in the near - month contract reduced their positions, leading to a rapid increase in futures prices. The July contract might face a phased adjustment due to profit - taking [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans declined on Wednesday. Market participants focused on the favorable weather in the US. The USDA's May estimate of the US 2024/25 soybean ending stocks was 3.51 billion bushels, and for 2025/26 it was 2.98 billion bushels. Globally, the 2025/26 soybean ending stocks were estimated at 1.2454 billion tons. Domestically, protein meal continued to increase with more positions. There were differences between long and short positions. The operation suggestion was to hold long spreads for soybean meal 91 and 15 contracts and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. Oils - BMD palm oil dropped to a two - week low on Wednesday, affected by weak international oil prices and increased May - end inventory. Malaysian palm oil production in May was 177 million tons, 5% higher than expected. High - frequency data showed that exports from June 1 - 10 increased by 8.1% - 32.7% month - on - month, while production decreased by 17.24%. In Canada, canola prices rose due to dry weather, but upcoming precipitation was beneficial for crop growth. International crude oil prices increased by 4%. Domestically, oils were weak, with palm oil falling below 8000 yuan. The operation suggestion was short - term participation and buying September and selling January for soybean oil and palm oil [1][2]. Eggs - The main egg 2508 contract fluctuated at a low level on Wednesday, rising 0.06% to 3515 yuan/500 kilograms, while the 2509 contract continued to decline, falling 0.47%. Spot prices decreased. Terminal demand was weak, and supply was expected to increase before August. It was recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in culling intention and feed raw material prices [2]. Pigs - The pig 9 - month contract fluctuated and formed a doji on Wednesday. Spot prices were stable. Due to insufficient terminal demand and farmers' resistance to selling, the market was in a supply - demand game. Technically, it was recommended to focus on the 13500 - yuan support level of the 9 - month contract and maintain a short - term long mindset [2]. Market Information - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1% after the release of good CPI data [3]. - China and the US reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the leaders' phone call and Geneva talks [3]. - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 10, 2025 decreased by 17.24% [3]. - EU and UK's 2025/26 rapeseed production was estimated to remain at 20.4 million tons, but there was a drought risk in Poland [3]. - Indonesia was expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025, with production recovery and stable international demand [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - Included spreads of contracts like corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, etc., but no specific spread data was provided [5][6][8] Contract Basis - Included basis of contracts such as corn, corn starch, etc., but no specific basis data was provided [13][14][18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI data has raised questions about the potential profit-taking by gold bulls, indicating a possible shift in market sentiment towards gold investments [1] Group 1 - The CPI data released last night may have a lasting impact on market dynamics, particularly influencing gold prices and investor behavior [1] - There is speculation that gold bulls may be locking in profits after a phase of price increases, suggesting a potential correction in the gold market [1]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-12 中美谈判新进展，股指反弹 市场分析 中美谈判新进展。国内方面，当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。双方进行了 坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经 贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总 理何立峰表示，下一步，双方要按照两国元首通话达成的重要共识和要求，进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用， 不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作。美方表示，本次会议取得积极成果，进一步稳定了双边经贸关系，将按照 两国元首通话要求，与中方相向而行，共同落实好本次会议共识。海外方面，美国劳工部数据显示，5月CPI同比 增长2.4%、环比增长0.1%，剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨2.8%、环比增长0.1%，均低于预期。CPI数据 公布后，特朗普再度呼吁美联储降息100个基点。 指数反弹。现货市场，A股三大指数反包，上证指数涨0.52%收于3402.32点，创业板指涨1.21%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，有色金属、农林牧渔、非银金融、汽车 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the recent CPI data being unfavorable for gold and silver, the market has responded positively, leading to an upward trend in gold prices, with significant price increases observed throughout the week [1][2] - Gold has shown a consistent pattern of reaching new highs after each adjustment, with recent prices hitting 3365, indicating a bullish sentiment and aligning with the strategy proposed by the analyst [1][2] - The expected upward target for gold this week is set at 3400, with a potential profit of 100 USD from the current positions, suggesting a strong bullish trend [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold futures (沪金) have shown a significant upward movement, with the opening price expected around 792, and previous positions at 772 and 765 yielding substantial profits [3] - The international silver market has experienced fluctuations, with a recent high of 36.9 and a subsequent drop to 35.9, but remains strong overall, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [3] - Domestic silver has seen a temporary high at 9050, but the market remains uncertain about a definitive top, recommending a wait-and-see approach [4] Group 3 - International crude oil prices have surged to 69.2, achieving a second target of 68, with expectations for further increases to 72 and 74.5, indicating a strong bullish trend [4] - Domestic fuel oil has also broken above 2800, with previous positions recommended to be held, as the outlook remains bullish towards 3000 [4]