Report Investment Rating - The zinc industry is rated as "Under Pressure" [1] Core View - Zinc is expected to run under pressure [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,738 dollars/ton, down 1.40% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 136,140 lots, an increase of 6,783 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 11,463 lots, a decrease of 1,997 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 94,177 lots, a decrease of 13,455 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 194,167 lots, an increase of 1,614 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was -0.36 dollars/ton, down 5.04 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 9,171 tons, an increase of 298 tons; LME zinc inventory was 113,400 tons, an increase of 8,150 tons [1] - **Related Products Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,255 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,355 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1] News - China's social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [2] Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2]

Economic Data - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2-M1 spread narrowing [1] - China's exports in June, measured in USD, grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.1% [1] - Rare earth exports reached the highest level since 2009, iron ore imports hit a year-to-date high, and steel exports in Q2 set a record [1] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index barely rose as investors awaited US inflation data [1] - Bitcoin experienced a pullback after reaching a new high [1] - Crude oil prices fell by 3% [1] Trade Relations - The EU is preparing to impose counter-tariffs on US goods worth 720 billion euros [1] - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if a peace agreement regarding Ukraine is not reached within 50 days [1] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk announced that a "monumental" demonstration of the next-generation Optimus robot is expected by the end of the year [1] - Meta is planning to invest hundreds of billions to build the world's largest data center and is considering shifting from open-source to closed-source [1] Upcoming Data Releases - China is set to release significant GDP data on Tuesday, while the US will announce June CPI data on the same day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, the previous trading day saw declines in major indices, but with increased trading volume. Given current policies and market conditions, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [2][4]. - In the bond market, the central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, with weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. - In the precious metals market, due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum may rise first and then fall, zinc has a large downward risk, and lead is expected to be weak [14][15][16][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel products are affected by factors such as weak demand and tariff policies, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and glass and soda ash are expected to be weak [27][29][30]. - In the energy and chemical market, rubber is affected by different views on supply and demand, and it is recommended to operate neutrally. Crude oil has reached a short - selling range, and methanol, urea, etc. have their own supply - demand characteristics and trading suggestions [39][40][43]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of pigs, eggs, etc. have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to different supply - demand situations [55][56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, etc. declined, with a total trading volume of 1467.2 billion yuan, an increase of 195.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - month social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The financing amount increased by 2.387 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 4.40bp to 1.411% [3]. - The basis ratios of index futures were provided, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" on dips [4]. Bond - On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose slightly [6]. - As of the end of May 2025, the social financing scale stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, and the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on June 16. The central bank achieved a net injection of 6.75 billion yuan on Friday [7]. - The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a positive attitude, and short - term bond market trends are expected to be volatile. In the long - term, interest rates are expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [8]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.64%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.24%. COMEX gold and silver also rose [9]. - Due to lower - than - expected US inflation data, the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has increased, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, especially silver, and go long on dips [9][12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. The inventories of the three major exchanges decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. The spot import loss widened, and it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [14]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices rose. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline, and it is expected that aluminum prices may rise first and then fall, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15]. Zinc - As of Friday, the zinc index fell 1.40%. Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and there is a large downward risk for zinc prices [16]. Lead - As of Friday, the lead index rose 0.26%. Downstream battery companies have weak consumption, and lead prices are expected to be weak [17]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated downward. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [18]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and terminal demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [19]. Carbonate Lithium - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium have not improved substantially, and there is a large selling pressure above. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [20]. Alumina - On June 13, the alumina index fell 1.45%. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second half of the year [21]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.28%. The inventory of Qing Shan resources is high, and steel prices are under pressure, but they are expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [22][23][24]. Black Building Materials Steel - On the previous trading day, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil both rose slightly. The demand for steel products is weak, and attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. Iron Ore - On Friday, the main contract of iron ore fell 0.14%. The supply of iron ore is increasing, the demand is weakening marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29]. Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. For soda ash, the spot price is stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. Both are expected to be weak [30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On June 13, the main contract of manganese silicon rose 0.92%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon rose 0.50%. The demand for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is expected to weaken, and it is not recommended to buy on the left side [31][32]. Industrial Silicon - On June 13, the main contract of industrial silicon fell 1.56%. The industrial silicon market has over - capacity and insufficient demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [35][36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Crude oil rose sharply, driving NR and RU to rebound. The bulls and bears have different views on the rubber market, and it is recommended to operate neutrally [39][40]. Crude Oil - As of Friday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. The current geopolitical risk has been gradually released, and the oil price has reached a short - selling range [42][43]. Methanol - On June 13, the 09 - contract of methanol rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is difficult to improve continuously. It is recommended to wait and see after the geopolitical conflict's positive impact is realized [44]. Urea - On June 13, the 09 - contract of urea rose. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the price has returned to a low level. It is recommended to go long at a low level [45]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene is unchanged, and the futures price has risen. The short - term contradiction is the rise in naphtha prices, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly after the war stabilizes [46]. PVC - The PVC09 - contract rose. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at a high level [49]. PTA - The PTA09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at a low level following PX [50]. Para - xylene - The PX09 - contract rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening in the short term, and it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at a low level following crude oil [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - The price of polyethylene has risen. The supply pressure may be relieved in June, and it is expected to fluctuate [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - The price of polypropylene has risen. The supply will increase in June, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. It is expected to be bearish [53]. Agricultural Products Pigs - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices rose. It is expected that pig prices will consolidate today. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at a low level and short on long - term contracts at a high level [55]. Eggs - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable. It is expected that egg prices will be stable this week. It is recommended to exit short positions at a low level and short on long - term contracts after a rebound [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Friday, US soybeans rose more than 2%. The domestic soybean meal spot price has increased. The US soybean production area will have good rainfall in the next two weeks. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on far - month soybean meal contracts [57][58]. Oils and Fats - High - frequency export data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase. The US bio - diesel policy draft is beyond expectations, and it is recommended to be bullish on oils and fats in the short term [59][60]. Sugar - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated strongly. The international sugar market supply may be increasing, and the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [61][62]. Cotton - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [63][64][65].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamentals of aluminum and alumina, providing updated data on futures and spot markets as well as relevant economic news and trend strength indicators [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The current situation of aluminum remains strong, while the focus of alumina has shifted slightly downward [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,440 yuan, up 370 yuan from a week ago and down 425 yuan from three months ago - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,503 US dollars, down 17 US dollars from the previous trading day - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased compared to previous periods [1] 3.1.2 Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,852 yuan, down 43 yuan from the previous trading day - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Alumina main contract also showed significant changes compared to previous periods [1] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 463,000 tons, showing a decreasing trend - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 353,200 tons, also decreasing [1] 3.2.2 Alumina - The domestic average price of alumina was 3,287 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous trading day - The import prices of alumina from different regions also had certain fluctuations [1] 3.3 Other Information - China's social financing increment in May was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan - The scissors - gap between M2 and M1 narrowed - The trend strength of aluminum and alumina was both 0, indicating a neutral state [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced [2]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from high levels [2]. - Copper: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices oscillating [2]. - Aluminum: The current situation remains strong [2]. - Alumina: The price center has slightly shifted downwards [2]. - Zinc: Under pressure [2]. - Lead: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but it can be bullish in the medium term [2]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2]. - Nickel: Concerns at the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, with weak supply and demand and low - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of various gold and silver contracts showed different changes, with daily increases in gold prices and a decline in the price of Shanghai silver 2508. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, and inventories [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel intensified [5][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both gold and silver have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.76%, and the London copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.44%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and there were geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel. China's May copper ore imports increased year - on - year, while un - wrought copper and copper product imports decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [12]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai aluminum main contract and the Shanghai alumina main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads in the aluminum and alumina markets [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both aluminum and alumina have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [15]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 1.22%, and the London zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.66%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early June 2025, compared with late May, 11 types of products' prices rose, 35 declined, and 4 remained flat [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish stance [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.33%, and the London lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early June 2025, compared with late May, 11 types of products' prices rose, 35 declined, and 4 remained flat [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [19]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 0.55%, and the London tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.24%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and there were geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract decreased. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads in the nickel and stainless - steel industries [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were issues such as potential nickel export restrictions from Canada and production resumptions and suspensions in the Indonesian nickel industry [25][26][27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [28].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced fluctuations in prices and inventory levels during the week of May 16, with average prices ranging from 78,155 to 78,905 CNY per ton, and macroeconomic factors influencing market sentiment [1] Price and Inventory Summary - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price fluctuated between 78,155 CNY/ton and 78,905 CNY/ton during the week, with a mid-week peak followed by a decline [1] - LME inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,400 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 27,400 tons to 108,100 tons [1] - Domestic social inventory rose by 8,900 tons to 132,000 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 68,800 tons [1] Macroeconomic Factors - A temporary joint statement was issued by China and the U.S., with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on China and China maintaining a 10% tariff on the U.S. [1] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with Japan and the Eurozone, leading to increased market risk sentiment, with U.S. stocks and the dollar rebounding [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating on Friday [1] - In April, China's social financing increased by 1.16 trillion CNY, with new RMB loans of 280 billion CNY, and M2-M1 spread widening [1] Mining and Trade Activity - Copper concentrate transaction activity increased, with frequent bidding activities from traders and smelters [1] - The Bisha project bidding results were released, with processing fees stabilizing around -40 USD, and this week's TC price reported at -43.05 USD/ton, slightly down from last week [1] - April copper concentrate imports reached a historical high, but future spot transactions are expected to be sluggish, with TC prices remaining low [1] Smelting and Import Dynamics - Imported copper arrivals slightly increased, while domestic copper arrivals were lower [1] - As copper prices rise, the willingness to sell scrap copper increases, leading to a widening gap between refined and scrap copper prices [1] Consumption Trends - Due to May delivery, monthly differences, and high copper prices, downstream purchasing has been cautious, with demand not being stimulated and only essential purchases being made, resulting in a slight increase in domestic inventory [1] Strategy Outlook - The copper market is viewed as neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately 75,000 CNY/ton to 79,500 CNY/ton in the coming week [1] - Arbitrage activities are on hold, with options positioned as short put at 74,000 CNY/ton [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the UK - US trade agreement, market risk sentiment has emerged, and the continuously low TC price indicates that copper prices are still likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended to mainly use buy - hedging on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On May 14, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,930 yuan/ton and closed at 78,940 yuan/ton, up 1.09% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,650 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - On the previous day, both procurement and sales sentiment declined. Near the delivery date, downstream procurement was affected by high monthly spreads, with a procurement index of 3.07. Sellers with registerable warehouse receipt goods were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the overall sales sentiment index dropped to 3.14 [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The US is "close to reaching" a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India. The US does not seek dollar depreciation in tariff negotiations. Trump reached a $12 - trillion economic commitment in Qatar, and the US and Qatar signed over $243.5 - billion economic and military cooperation agreements. In China, the social financing increment from January to April was 16.34 trillion yuan, new loans were 10.06 trillion yuan, and M2 in April increased by 8% year - on - year [3] - **Mine End**: From 2020 - 2024, Western Mining's net profit compound growth rate was 41%. Its mine production capacity expanded, and mineral copper production increased significantly. In 2024, the deterioration of smelting processing fees and year - end asset impairment affected the company's profitability [3] - **Smelting and Import**: In 2024, the total electrolytic copper output of 19 large domestic copper smelters was 10.5558 million tons, an increase of 0.642 million tons or 6.5% year - on - year. These 19 enterprises accounted for 77.37% of China's total electrolytic copper output, a 1.04% increase from the previous year [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Near the end of the month, downstream consumption growth was limited. Due to some processing enterprises' export - rushing actions, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made low - price, just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,125 tons to 185,575 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 20,912 tons to 50,069 tons. On May 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.231 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, mainly use buy - hedging on dips [5] - Options: short put@ 74000 [5] Data Table - The table shows copper price and basis data including spot (premium/discount), inventory, warehouse receipt, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai - London ratio data for different time points [20][25]