《纽约时报》随后报道称，美方还暂停了与喷气式飞机发动机技术及部分化学品销售有关的对华出口。 美国商务部28日回应美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）称，正"审查对华具有战略意义的出口"，"在某些情 况下，商务部已暂停现有出口许可，或在审查期间施加额外的许可要求"。不过，商务部发言人未就具 体涉及哪些公司作出说明。 美国切断部分对华半导体技术出口 智通财经5月29日电，据英国《金融时报》28日报道，美国政府已实质性切断了部分美国企业向中国出 售半导体设计软件的渠道。报道援引知情人士称，受影响企业包括Cadence、Synopsys及Siemens EDA。 上述三家公司未对置评请求作出回应。 对于美方滥用出口管制措施，中国商务部新闻发言人此前表示，美方行为严重损害中国企业正当权益， 严重威胁全球半导体产供链安全稳定，严重冲击全球科技创新。给别人"下绊子"，不会让自己跑得更 快。这种以单边保护主义手段，妄图围堵、孤立其他国家的做法，终将损害美自身产业竞争力，其结果 只能是搬起石头砸自己的脚。倘若美方一意孤行，继续实质性损害中方利益，中方必将采取坚决措施， 维护自身正当权益。 (环球时报) ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that due to U.S. export controls, China's HBM technology gap is narrowing, with Changxin Storage (CXMT) aiming to produce HBM3/3E by 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: HBM Technology Development - China currently lags 3-4 years behind global leaders in HBM3 technology, but this gap is expected to close due to advancements in AI chip production capabilities [2][3]. - The DRAM technology gap between CXMT and market leaders has decreased from 5 years to 3 years, thanks to significant progress in DRAM technology [2][3]. - The shift towards lower-cost AI inference solutions may enhance China's competitiveness in the HBM and high-end DRAM markets [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitors - China's semiconductor ecosystem is becoming more competitive, with local solutions emerging across various segments, including chips, substrates, and assembly [4][5]. - Geopolitical tensions are driving the Chinese tech industry to prioritize local components, increasing the market share of Chinese suppliers [5][6]. - By 2027, approximately 37% of wafer manufacturing capacity is expected to be concentrated in China, with notable advancements in advanced memory nodes [5][6]. Group 3: Changxin Storage (CXMT) Updates - CXMT is progressing towards HBM production, with plans to start small-scale production of HBM2 samples by mid-2025 and mass production of HBM3 by 2026 [14][16]. - The company aims to increase its HBM capacity to approximately 100,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, expanding to 400,000 wafers per month by the end of 2028 [16][19]. - CXMT's DDR5 production is currently at a 3-year lag behind leading competitors, but it is actively working to close this gap [18][19]. Group 4: Hybrid Bonding Technology - China leads in hybrid bonding patents, which are crucial for the future of HBM technology, with significant advancements made by companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) [20][27]. - Hybrid bonding technology is expected to enhance the performance and yield of HBM products, with major manufacturers considering its implementation in future generations [27][28]. Group 5: GPU Market and AI Inference - The introduction of alternative GPU products, such as NVIDIA's downgraded H20 GPU, is expected to impact the HBM market significantly, with potential revenue implications of approximately $806 million [9][12]. - The Chinese GPU market for AI inference is projected to grow at a CAGR of about 10% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increased adoption of workstation solutions [12][13].

Core Insights - Nvidia is set to launch a new AI chip for the Chinese market, priced significantly lower than the recently restricted H20 model, with production expected to start as early as June [1] - The new GPU will belong to Nvidia's latest Blackwell architecture series, with a price range of $6,500 to $8,000, compared to the H20's previous price of $12,000 to $15,000 [1] - The new chip will utilize traditional GDDR7 memory instead of advanced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and will not employ TSMC's advanced semiconductor packaging technology [1] Group 1: Market Impact and Regulations - New export restrictions have introduced bandwidth constraints on GPU memory, limiting it to 1.7-1.8 TB/s, while the H20 could achieve 4 TB/s [3] - The new GPU is expected to meet the export control limit with a bandwidth of approximately 1.7 TB/s [3] - Nvidia's CEO criticized the U.S. government's AI chip diffusion control regulations, stating that they hinder the company's ability to adapt to market needs [4] Group 2: Financial Implications - The H20 ban has forced Nvidia to write down $5.5 billion in inventory, potentially leading to a revenue loss of $14 billion to $18 billion for the year [5] - Nvidia's revenue from China reached $17.108 billion in the fiscal year ending January 2024, marking a 66% increase from the previous year [5] - The company's market share in China has dropped from 95% in 2022 to 50% currently, with Huawei emerging as a key competitor [4]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 25 日 本周沪锡价格小幅下跌，Bisie 首批锡精矿已 进入物流环节 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，沪镍持续去库 截止到 5 月 23 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,205.00 美 元/吨，较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.49%，LME 镍总库存为 198,636.00 吨，较 5 月 16 日增加 1.75%；沪镍报收 12.31 万元/吨，较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.25%，沪镍库存为 26,955.00 吨，较 5 月 16 日 减少 2.84%；截止到 5 月 16 日，硫酸镍报收 28,900.00 元/吨， 较 5 月 16 日价格持平。根据 SMM 周报，硫酸镍方面，需求 端表现方面，经过 5 月行业去库存后，部分前驱体生产企业 6 月排产计划趋于乐观，对硫酸镍的询价活跃度显著提升，且 企业对镍盐价格的接受度有所增强。供应端来看，部分镍盐生 产企业受需求增长及原料库存紧张影响，上调了产品报价系 数，另有部分企业报价维持稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is launching a new AI chip for the Chinese market, significantly reducing the price compared to the previously restricted H20 model, as a response to U.S. export controls and competition from Huawei [2][3]. Group 1: New Product Launch - Nvidia plans to introduce a new AI chip priced between $6,500 and $8,000, which is a substantial decrease from the H20's price range of $10,000 to $12,000 [2]. - The new chip is based on the Blackwell architecture and utilizes the RTX Pro 6000D server-grade processor along with conventional GDDR7 memory [2]. - Production for the new chip is expected to start in June, following the ban of the H20 model [2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Competition - Following the ban of the H20, Nvidia's market share in China plummeted from 95% to 50%, with Huawei's Ascend 910B chip rapidly gaining market presence [2]. - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang warned that continued U.S. restrictions could lead to more Chinese customers shifting to Huawei [2]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The discontinuation of the H20 resulted in Nvidia recording a $5.5 billion inventory loss and forfeiting $15 billion in potential orders [3]. - Nvidia is also planning to mass-produce another Blackwell architecture chip, potentially named B40, aimed at the Chinese market in September [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Challenges - Nvidia is awaiting final approval from the U.S. government for the new product designs, as the company navigates compliance with U.S. export regulations [3]. - Industry analysis indicates that the new U.S. regulations aim to suppress China's AI computing power by limiting memory bandwidth, while Nvidia seeks to find market opportunities by adjusting chip configurations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning globally against any cooperation with the U.S. in banning Huawei chips, stating that such actions would be illegal and carry consequences [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and China's Response - The U.S. is attempting to globally ban advanced Chinese computing chips, including Huawei's Ascend chips, under the pretext of "presumed violations of U.S. export controls," which China views as unilateral bullying and protectionism [1][3]. - China asserts that the U.S. misuse of export controls to suppress China violates international law and damages the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [3][4]. - The warning from China highlights the significance of Huawei's Ascend chips, indicating their excellence and the progress made by China's semiconductor industry despite U.S. sanctions [3][4]. Group 2: China's Strategy and Industry Outlook - China is determined to protect its domestic chip industry and will employ all necessary measures to ensure its stable development in the face of U.S. sanctions [4][8]. - The Chinese semiconductor industry is encouraged to intensify efforts in response to U.S. fears and sanctions, suggesting that such actions indicate China's progress [6][8]. - The Ministry of Commerce's warning serves as a global alert, indicating that any country aiding the U.S. will face strong countermeasures from China [8].

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 戴润芝 环球时报记者 陈子帅 张旺 陈庆瑞】中方接连表态，抨击美国发布 意在打压中国人工智能（AI）的指南。中国商务部新闻发言人21日发表谈话称，美国商务部近日发布 指南，以所谓推定违反美出口管制为由，企图在全球禁用中国先进计算芯片，包括特定的华为昇腾芯 片。美方措施是典型的单边霸凌和保护主义做法，严重损害全球半导体产业链供应链稳定，剥夺其他国 家发展先进计算芯片和人工智能等高科技产业的权利。中方密切关注美方措施执行情况，将采取坚决措 施维护自身正当权益。19日，中国商务部新闻发言人在回答相关提问时表示，给别人"下绊子"，不会让 自己跑得更快。这种以单边保护主义手段，妄图围堵、孤立其他国家的做法，终将损害美自身产业竞争 力，其结果只能是搬起石头砸自己的脚。21日接受《环球时报》记者采访的专家表示，中国商务部的连 续表态，一方面是对美国荒诞的芯片政策进行抨击，更好地让国际社会认清事情本质；另一方面是在中 美将继续就经贸问题进行协商的背景下，希望美方能够与中国相向而行，为双方达成有利于两国、有利 于国际经济合作、有利于世界福祉的协定作贡献。 外媒关注中方法律警告 中国商务部新闻发言人19 ...

中方注意到，美国商务部近日发布指南，以所谓推定违反美出口管制为由，企图在全球禁用中国先进计算 芯片，包括特定的华为昇腾芯片。美方措施是典型的单边霸凌和保护主义做法，严重损害全球半导体产业 链供应链稳定，剥夺其他国家发展先进计算芯片和人工智能等高科技产业的权利。 中方认为，美方滥用出口管制，对中国进行遏制打压，违反国际法和国际关系基本准则，严重损害中国企 业正当权益，危害中国发展利益。 中方强调，美方措施涉嫌构成对中国企业采取的歧视性限制措施。任何组织和个人执行或协助执行美方措 施，将涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国反外国制裁法》等法律法规，须承担相应法律责任。 创新发展、合作共赢是大势所趋。中方敦促美方立即纠正错误做法，遵守国际经贸规则，尊重其他国家科 技发展权利。中方支持全球企业按照市场原则，深入开展科技合作，实现互利共赢，共同推动科技创新造 福世界各国人民。中方密切关注美方措施执行情况，将采取坚决措施维护自身正当权益。 ...

中方强调，美方措施涉嫌构成对中国企业采取的歧视性限制措施。任何组织和个人执行或协助执行美方 措施，将涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国反外国制裁法》等法律法规，须承担相应法律责任。 创新发展、合作共赢是大势所趋。中方敦促美方立即纠正错误做法，遵守国际经贸规则，尊重其他国家 科技发展权利。中方支持全球企业按照市场原则，深入开展科技合作，实现互利共赢，共同推动科技创 新造福世界各国人民。中方密切关注美方措施执行情况，将采取坚决措施维护自身正当权益。 商务部回应美国企图全球禁用中国先进计算芯片：将采取坚决措施维护自身正当权益 智通财经5月21日电，商务部新闻发言人就美国企图全球禁用中国先进计算芯片发表谈话。中方注意 到，美国商务部近日发布指南，以所谓推定违反美出口管制为由，企图在全球禁用中国先进计算芯片， 包括特定的华为昇腾芯片。美方措施是典型的单边霸凌和保护主义做法，严重损害全球半导体产业链供 应链稳定，剥夺其他国家发展先进计算芯片和人工智能等高科技产业的权利。 中方认为，美方滥用出口管制，对中国进行遏制打压，违反国际法和国际关系基本准则，严重损害中国 企业正当权益，危害中国发展利益。 ...

Core Insights - The former U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Raimondo, emphasizes the urgency of maintaining a competitive edge in AI against China, stating that the U.S. must not assume it will always lead in innovation [1][3][4] - Raimondo argues that export controls can only slow down China's progress but cannot stop it, highlighting the need for the U.S. to innovate to maintain its leadership [1][3][4] - The U.S. should leverage its existing AI advantages and share technology globally to ensure that the world aligns with American standards rather than Chinese ones [1][3] Group 1 - Raimondo describes the AI competition with China as a critical technological race, asserting that the U.S. must lead and cannot afford to be second [1][3] - She warns against the assumption that the U.S. will always be at the forefront, stressing the importance of a daily sense of urgency in maintaining technological leadership [4] - The need for a strategic approach to technology diffusion is highlighted, aiming to prevent top technologies from falling into Chinese hands while promoting U.S. advancements [3][4] Group 2 - NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, echoes similar sentiments, acknowledging China's significant advancements in AI and the global distribution of AI researchers [4] - Huang criticizes the idea of restricting AI technology dissemination, arguing that it could backfire and allow China to build a strong technological ecosystem [4] - He advocates for accelerating the global spread of U.S. technology to maintain leadership in the face of rising Chinese capabilities [4]