反内卷下的黑色系 20250730 摘要 当前政策侧重于治理煤炭行业低价竞争，而非大规模去产能，可能采取 限产或保价措施。倒查超产或导致部分企业受罚，但整体影响有限，市 场情绪波动大于实际供需变化。 焦煤价格受国内供应增加、需求疲软及能源局倒查超产影响，经历近一 年下跌。6 月动力煤价跌至 400 多元/吨，焦煤盘面价跌至 700 多元/吨， 现货价接近 1,000 元/吨，主焦煤现货价低于 1,100 元/吨。 今年 4-5 月焦煤进口量显著下滑，但 6 月起随价格企稳逐步回升，7 月 进一步反弹，表明进口对国内市场有显著影响，可弥补部分供应缺口。 下半年焦煤产量预计放缓，或低于去年同期水平，因政策趋严、现金流 压力及加强监管。若政策端再出标志性事件，行情可能结束。 上游库存向下游转移，钢厂和焦化厂库存增加，有利于短期价格反弹。 需关注上游停止去库并开始垒库的时间点，以及政策变动。 钢铁行业政策指向反内卷和整治低价竞争，可能导致部分行业去产能。 钢铁行业限产概率大，若压减粗钢 5,000 万吨，下半年日均产量需再降 30 万吨。 四五月份市场对下半年钢材出口存在崩塌预期，但随着焦煤价格企稳及 出口风险未能验 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the recent meeting held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association is "production limits to maintain prices," with expectations of a 10%-15% reduction in operating rates in the third quarter [2] - A strict policy against "selling below cost" is being implemented, with third-party audits to investigate low-price sales and measures against companies engaging in substandard product sales [2] - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing supply-demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and performance losses, necessitating the accelerated elimination of excess capacity [2] Group 2 - In the A-share photovoltaic supply chain, 18 out of 21 listed companies reported losses in their first-quarter net profits, with larger manufacturers experiencing more severe losses [2] - Major companies such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. reported a loss of 2.61 billion yuan, while TCL Zhonghuan and Longi Green Energy each faced losses nearing 2 billion yuan [2] - Industry organizations have been actively taking measures, including setting minimum price standards for components and enhancing technical standards to combat vicious competition [2] Group 3 - The photovoltaic industry chain prices are under pressure, with a slight decline observed since June 16, indicating that the effectiveness of production cuts remains to be seen [3][4] - The average transaction price for 183N silicon wafers has dropped to the range of 0.9 to 0.91 yuan, with some quotes falling below 0.9 yuan [4] - The price of polysilicon has also decreased due to weak downstream demand and significant price drops in silicon wafer products, leading to severe price pressure on new contracts [5] Group 4 - The number of new polysilicon contracts has decreased significantly post-exhibition, with major manufacturers struggling to make sales at current low prices [5] - The decline in polysilicon prices is attributed to the rapid drop in downstream silicon wafer prices and the expectation of increased production capacity among polysilicon manufacturers [5] - Currently, all 11 polysilicon production companies are operating at reduced capacity, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (June 13 - June 20, 2025), the spot price of industrial silicon started to stop falling and rise slightly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 7,635 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, up 1.3% from 7,537 yuan/ton on June 13. In the futures market, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound but did not break through last week's high, with the highest transaction price at 7,565 yuan/ton and the latest transaction price at 7,390 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.51%. The main contract's open interest was about 305,500 lots, and trading volume increased[8]. - The supply of industrial silicon has increased. In the southwest region, some enterprises do not plan to start furnaces due to low market prices and high inventory, while a few enterprises with electricity subsidies have increased furnace starts. In the northwest region, the number of silicon furnaces has increased, mainly due to increased production by large enterprises. Overall, the total number of furnace starts has increased this week, and the market supply is sufficient, mainly in the northwest region. There is still pressure on the supply side, even though most 99 - grade silicon producers have shut down for maintenance[8]. - The demand for industrial silicon is weak. The photovoltaic industry association has reported "self - disciplined" production cuts, which is a significant negative for the end - market. Most polysilicon producers are operating at reduced loads, with mixed production schedules. The silicon powder market has few tenders, and the purchasing enthusiasm is low, so the industrial silicon price has limited room for increase. The aluminum alloy industry's demand for industrial silicon is average, and exports have decreased. In May 2025, China's industrial silicon exports were 55,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.47%. From January to May 2025, China's total industrial silicon exports were 272,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%[8]. - The overall production cost of industrial silicon is stable, and it is expected that the electricity cost in various regions will further decline in July. The spot profit is stable, and the futures profit has increased due to the rising futures price[8]. - This week, the standard warehouse receipt inventory was mostly in a destocking state. Silicon powder enterprises made small - scale stockpiling, but due to the rising futures price, some silicon powder factories reduced their demand. Due to the adjustment of the current spot - futures basis, there was a small release of 421 - grade warehouse receipts[8]. - Looking ahead, the overall production in the southwest region has slightly increased, downstream demand remains weak, and there is a supply - demand mismatch for different grades. It is expected that the price will still be more likely to fall than rise[8]. - The report suggests that investors should short the 2509 contract on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options when volatility is low. Traders or upstream enterprises are advised to sell call options to protect their inventory[8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Views and Hot News - **Hot News**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is discussing "production cuts to maintain prices," with expected production cuts of 10% - 15% in the third quarter. Strict policies against "below - cost sales" and "substandard product sales" will be implemented. The National Development and Reform Commission's governance ideas for "involution - style competition" are in line with the current difficulties in the industrial silicon industry. There are rumors that Tongwei is promoting measures such as capacity acquisition and storage, and the government may introduce policies to re - position photovoltaics as energy products. In 2025, the US - China tariff war continued, and the National Energy Administration released the "2025 Energy Work Guidance Opinion"[7]. - **Week - on - Week Views**: As mentioned above, covering price trends, supply, demand, cost - profit, inventory, outlook, and trading strategies[8]. 2. Industry Structure - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, and silicon ore, and downstream products such as organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, which are widely used in electronics, construction, and other industries[11]. 3. Spot and Futures Markets - Multiple charts show the spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon (such as 553 and 421) in different regions (e.g., Tianjin Port, Kunming Port), as well as the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active futures contracts[13][24][33]. 4. Inventory - Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon in the industry, factories, the market, and futures, with data sources from Baichuan Yingfu and the research institute[48][50]. 5. Cost and Profit - Charts show the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon, electricity prices in major and non - major production areas, the prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, petroleum coke, and electrodes, and the cost and profit of polysilicon[57][61][93]. 6. Supply - Charts present the weekly and monthly production of industrial silicon, the operating rate, and monthly production capacity. There are also plans for new production capacity in multiple enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia, with a total planned new capacity of 3 million tons[110][114][117]. 7. Demand - Charts show the consumption breakdown and structure of industrial silicon, the production, price, inventory, and cost - profit of polysilicon, the price, production, cost, and profit of organic silicon, the production, inventory, and operating rate of aluminum alloy, and the production and price of solar cells[120][124][133]. 8. Import and Export - Charts display the import and export volumes of industrial silicon and polysilicon, with data from the General Administration of Customs[174][179].

Group 1 - The National Medical Products Administration has approved measures to optimize the lifecycle regulation to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices [1] - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will jointly launch a cross-border payment system, set to go live on June 22, 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Finance reported a 28.8% increase in tax revenue from the railway, shipping, and aerospace manufacturing industries from January to May, while the information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a 10% increase [4] Group 2 - Lianqi Technology plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Nord Technology, which has seen a four-day stock increase, reported that revenue from its copper foil business in the solid-state battery sector accounts for less than 1% of total revenue [5] - Changcheng Military Industry, which has experienced a three-day stock increase, stated that its production and operational activities are currently normal [5] - Changshan Pharmaceutical has received approval for clinical trials of Abenanide injection for weight loss indications [5]

Macro Dynamics - In the first five months of 2025, China attracted foreign investment amounting to 358.19 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [1] - The number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises reached 24,018, marking a 10.4% increase year-on-year [1] - High-tech industries saw a significant increase in foreign investment, with e-commerce services up 146%, aerospace manufacturing up 74.9%, chemical pharmaceuticals up 59.2%, and medical equipment manufacturing up 20% [1] - Investment from ASEAN countries grew by 20.5%, while Japan, the UK, South Korea, and Germany saw increases of 70.2%, 60.9%, 10.3%, and 7.1% respectively [1] Financial Data - From January to May, the total stamp duty on securities transactions reached 66.8 billion RMB, a 52.4% increase year-on-year [2] - The overall stamp duty collected during the same period was 178.7 billion RMB, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year growth [2] Industry Policies - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy for consumer goods will continue, with central funds being allocated in batches throughout the year [3] - A total of 300 billion RMB in national bond funds will be directed to support local governments in implementing the "old-for-new" policy [3] Energy Consumption - In May, China's total electricity consumption reached 809.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [5] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to May was 39,665 billion kWh, reflecting a 3.4% year-on-year growth [5] Company Dynamics - Ele.me's logistics head has been investigated for alleged job-related crimes, with the company cooperating with law enforcement [11] - Huizhou Yuantong was fined 24.31 million RMB by the People's Bank of China for multiple regulatory violations [13] - CanSino Biologics received a drug registration certificate for its 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine [14] - Zhang Xiaoqin's controlling shareholder has entered restructuring proceedings as approved by the local court [15] - Douyin has initiated a special action to combat corporate defamation and protect the rights of businesses and entrepreneurs [16] - Hainan Huatie clarified that it is not involved in stablecoin business and has no formal agreements with Ant Group regarding RWA [18]

Group 1: Fiscal Data - In the first five months, the national general public budget revenue reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to 17,467 billion yuan [1] - The securities transaction stamp duty amounted to 668 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 52.4% [1] Group 2: Banking and Finance - The People's Bank of China announced the first batch of institutions participating in the cross-border payment system, including major banks from both mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - Everbright Wealth became the first bank wealth management company to participate in offline IPO subscriptions, successfully bidding for shares in Xintong Electronics [2] - Everbright Wealth's mixed product "Sunshine Orange Absolute Return Strategy" was used for the subscription, indicating a growing trend in bank wealth management participation in equity markets [2] Group 3: Robotics Industry - IDC forecasts that the commercial sales volume of humanoid robots in China will reach nearly 60,000 units by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 95.3% [2] - The market is experiencing strong growth, with an estimated 2,000 units expected to be sold in 2024 [2] Group 4: Gaming Industry - In May 2025, China's gaming market size reached 28.051 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.86% [3] - The mobile gaming market contributed significantly, with a size of 21.177 billion yuan, up 11.96% year-on-year [3] - The actual sales revenue of self-developed games in overseas markets was 1.577 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.93% [3] Group 5: Wine Industry - The wholesale reference price for 2025 Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1,900 yuan per bottle, indicating a decline in market prices [4] - Wuliangye announced a record high dividend payout of 22.3 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend rate of 70% [5][6] Group 6: Semiconductor Industry - The global semiconductor foundry market is witnessing a shift, with SMIC rapidly closing the gap with Samsung Electronics [6] - SMIC's market share has risen to 6%, while Samsung's has decreased to 7.7%, highlighting a competitive landscape [6] Group 7: Logistics and Technology - Ele.me reported that a logistics supervisor was suspected of job-related crimes and has been reported to the police [7] - Yushu Technology completed a C-round financing of approximately 700 million yuan, with plans for an IPO primarily in the A-share market [7] Group 8: Construction Industry - China Power Construction Company signed new contracts worth 474 billion yuan in the first five months, a decrease of 0.93% year-on-year [8] Group 9: Stock Repurchase - Kailong High-tech received a commitment letter for a stock repurchase loan of 25 million yuan from China Everbright Bank [9] Group 10: Regulatory Actions - ST Aowei received an administrative supervision decision from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for inaccuracies in financial disclosures [10][11] Group 11: Renewable Energy - Guosheng Technology signed a sales contract for photovoltaic components worth 1.043 billion yuan with China General Nuclear Power Group [12]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a rebound with all three major indices in the green, particularly the Hang Seng Index which rose by 1.26% to close at 23,530.48 points, with a total turnover of HKD 222.42 billion [1] - Citigroup raised its target price for the Hang Seng Index, citing minimal impact from the Middle East situation and clearer tariff developments, predicting better earnings growth for Hong Kong stocks next year [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Li Ning (02331) led blue-chip stocks with a 4.8% increase, closing at HKD 15.72, contributing 2.68 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable performers included China Life (02628) up 4.74% and Sunny Optical Technology (02382) up 3.99%, while Xinyi Glass (00868) and PetroChina (00857) saw declines [2] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed strength with notable gains from banks like Minsheng Bank (01988) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) [3][4] - The insurance sector also performed well, with China Life and New China Life (01336) both seeing significant increases [4] Shipping Sector Insights - The shipping sector experienced a strong performance, particularly due to rising tensions in the Middle East, with companies like Derun Shipping (02510) seeing a substantial increase of 35.68% [6][7] - Rental prices for oil tankers have surged, with rates for supertankers doubling from USD 19,998 per day to USD 47,609 per day [6] Solar Industry Developments - The solar sector faced challenges with reports of potential production cuts of 10%-15% in the third quarter, alongside stricter controls on below-cost sales [8] - Despite the negative sentiment, some industry players maintain optimistic pricing expectations, although analysts caution against this outlook [8] Notable Stock Movements - Non-Farm Holdings (00933) significantly increased its stake in Li Ning, leading to a 17.65% rise in its stock price [9] - China Duty Free Group (01880) saw a moderate increase of 2.19%, supported by favorable macroeconomic policies promoting tourism and consumption [11]

统计库存去化，工业硅盘面企稳震荡运行 工业硅： 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-20 2025-06-19，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2509开于7385元/吨，最后收于7470元/吨，较前一日结算变化（35） 元/吨，变化（0.47）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓310357手，2025-06-19仓单总数为55179手，较前一日变化 -441手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。 SMM统计SMM统计6月19日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.9万吨，较上周环比减少1.3万吨。其中社会普通仓库 13.1万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨，社会交割仓库42.8万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少1.1万 吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10200-10800（-150）元/吨。SMM报道，本周国内DMC报价10200-10800 元/吨，均价较上周再度大幅下 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the recent meeting held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association is "production limits to maintain prices," with expectations of a 10%-15% reduction in operating rates in the third quarter [1] - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) has seen an increase of nearly 2% due to favorable catalysts [2] - Dongxing Securities indicates that the rush for photovoltaic installations will lead to a recovery in Q1 2025 performance, although the entire industry is still in a loss phase, and capacity clearance is ongoing [2] Group 2 - Industry self-discipline and technological innovation are deemed crucial for breaking the current deadlock, with leading companies potentially establishing a capacity planning coordination mechanism to avoid vicious competition [2] - New battery technology is improving mass production efficiency, and breakthroughs in silver-free technology are accelerating the upgrade of production lines [2] - With the improvement of self-discipline mechanisms and technological advancements, the photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity and optimize the supply structure [2]

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250620：低位整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 近期趋势 2025/6/20 | 指标 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,100.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 元/吨 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 7,470.00 | 0.61% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 630.00 | -45.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | 33.50 | -2.90% | | 多晶硅期现价格 元/吨 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 32,720.00 | -1.95% | | 元/吨 | 基差 | 780.00 | -350.00 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,100.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 8,150.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 7,950.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 8 ...