现货黄金报3329附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报37.15美元/盎司； 基本面： 周五（7月11日）银价早盘压力位震荡，白银价格长时间保持区间震荡行情，适当减少白银的投资时间周期，同时也可以减少白银的仓位，短期交易或者观 望为主。基本面美国劳动力市场的最新数据为金市分析提供了重要背景。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至7月5日当周，初请失业金人数意外降至22.7 万人，低于市场预期的23.5万人，创七周以来最低水平。这一数据表明，尽管劳动力市场存在降温迹象，雇主仍在努力留住员工，显示出劳动力市场的韧 性。然而，续请失业金人数却升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，达到196.5万人，表明失业者寻找新工作的难度正在增加。景顺固定收益首席策略师Rob Waldner评论称，当前劳动力市场呈现出"停滞"特征，企业倾向于通过降低员工流失率和减少招聘来控制成本，而非大规模裁员。这种低裁员、低招聘的趋 势使得劳动力市场保持了相对稳定，但也为经济前景蒙上了一层不确定性。 劳动力市场的复杂信号对黄金市场的影响是双重的。一方面，强劲的就业数据提振了美元和美债收益率，进一步压制金价；另一方面，劳动力市场潜在的疲 软迹象可能在未来为黄 ...

Core Insights - The labor market is cooling down, indicating a shift in economic conditions [1] - Economic growth is trending towards moderation, suggesting a more stable economic environment [1] - However, there has not been any substantial evidence of economic weakness in the data [1] Labor Market - The cooling of the labor market suggests a potential easing of inflationary pressures [1] - This shift may impact wage growth and employment rates in the near future [1] Economic Growth - The moderation in economic growth reflects a balanced approach to recovery post-pandemic [1] - The current economic indicators show stability rather than volatility [1] Data Analysis - Despite the cooling labor market and moderate growth, the data does not indicate any significant downturn [1] - Continuous monitoring of economic indicators will be essential to assess future trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic situation is favorable, with the labor market at or near full employment, while inflation presents some upward risks [1] Economic Conditions - The overall economic conditions are described as good, indicating a positive outlook for growth and stability [1] - The labor market is reported to be strong, suggesting robust job creation and low unemployment rates [1] Inflation Risks - There are identified upward risks to inflation, which could impact future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu has experienced significant population growth, with a 30% increase over the past five years, reaching a resident population of 21.47 million, which has elevated its urbanization rate above the national average [3][4][5]. Population Growth and Composition - Chengdu's resident population increased from 16.58 million to 21.47 million over five years, with a net increase of nearly 4.9 million [3][4]. - In 2020, Chengdu's resident population was 20.93 million, with 6.39 million being external migrants, accounting for 31% of the total population [5][6]. - The majority of incoming migrants are from within Sichuan province (77%), with notable external migration from Chongqing and Henan [5][6][7]. Reasons for Migration - The primary reasons for migration to Chengdu are employment (55%) and education (13%) [8]. - Chengdu's rich educational resources have led to an increase in university students from 972,000 in 2019 to 1.307 million by 2024, ranking fourth nationally [9]. Labor Market Dynamics - The job market in Chengdu has become increasingly competitive, with a decrease in the job-seeker ratio from 2.39 in Q1 2021 to 1.43 in Q1 2025, indicating a tightening labor market [13]. - Despite the competitive environment, Chengdu's job market remains attractive, with a significant increase in job offerings, growing from 59,400 in Q1 2021 to 1.0165 million in Q1 2025 [13]. Economic Development and Population Density - Chengdu's population density in 2024 is projected to be 1,498 people per square kilometer, significantly lower than the threshold identified for economic development [15][16]. - Scholars suggest that China's urban population density is still lagging behind developed countries, indicating potential for further growth [16]. Quality of Life and Living Conditions - Chengdu is recognized for its livability, being ranked as the top new first-tier city for 11 consecutive years and the happiest city for 16 years [19]. - The city offers a vibrant lifestyle with a mix of modern amenities and cultural experiences, making it appealing for residents [22][24]. - Rental prices in Chengdu are lower compared to first-tier cities, with newer housing options available [23]. Conclusion - Chengdu's rapid population growth, competitive job market, and high quality of life contribute to its status as a major urban center in China, attracting both internal and external migrants [3][4][19][24].

美联储内部分歧达到十年之最，华尔街的观点也随之分裂。 华尔街见闻此前提及，根据6月点阵图，美联储官员对2025年利率预测呈现两极化分布，分歧程度创下十年新高。与此同时，华尔街投行对今年降息时机 的判断也出现了分歧。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在其最新研报中表示，受通胀胀风险和关税影响，预计2025年全年无降息，而花旗则在其研报中预计，9月就可能开启降 息周期，且后续每次会议都可能降息，直至政策利率降至3-3.25%。 大摩与花旗预测迥异 大摩报告明确表示，鉴于通胀压力和关税对消费及企业支出的拖累，2025年不会降息，预计2026年才会启动175个基点的降息周期。 大摩分析称，6月FOMC会议纪要偏鹰派，"大多数"官员仍担忧关税可能导致通胀持久化，甚至动摇通胀预期。如果通胀在6月至9月间加速上升，可能有 更多官员倾向于维持现有政策不变。 相反，花旗研究报告则对9月降息充满信心。 据花旗分析，尽管6月会议纪要显示部分官员对通胀风险的担忧加剧，但随着未来数据发布，通胀压力有望缓解，而劳动力市场疲软的迹象将进一步显 现。 花旗预计，9月FOMC会议后，美联储将启动降息，并在此后每次会议持续降息，直至政策利率降至3- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that most participants believe that increased tariffs or heightened policy uncertainty will suppress labor demand [1] Labor Market Conditions - Participants assess that the labor market remains solid, close to maximum employment levels [1] - A slowdown in hiring and layoffs has been noted, reflecting stability in the labor market [1] - Some participants reported that contacts and survey respondents indicated a pause in hiring decisions due to rising uncertainty [1] Immigration Policy Impact - Immigration policies are contributing to a reduction in labor supply, as noted by several participants [1] Labor Demand Outlook - Most participants expect that increased tariffs or greater policy uncertainty will negatively impact labor demand, with many anticipating a gradual softening of conditions [1] - Some indicators have already shown signs of weakness, prompting close monitoring of further labor market deterioration [1] Wage Growth and Inflation - Wage growth continues to slow, and participants do not expect it to create inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year have decreased to 3%, the lowest level in five months, down from 3.2% [1] - The median inflation expectations for the next three and five years remain unchanged at 3% and 2.6% respectively [1] - There is a decline in uncertainty regarding price pressures in both one-year and three-year expectations [1] Group 2 - There are mixed signals regarding the labor market; the likelihood of unemployment in the next 12 months has decreased to the lowest level since December of the previous year [2] - Consumers are slightly more optimistic about their financial situation, with a decrease in the proportion of households expecting worse economic conditions in a year [2] - The proportion of households facing difficulties in obtaining credit has decreased, and the likelihood of missing minimum payments in the next three months is at its lowest since May of the previous year [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%, both of which are bearish for gold [1] - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a period of high inflation and that the labor market remains healthy without signs of early deterioration, reinforcing the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July [3] - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for a rate cut in July dropped from 23.8% to 5.2%, while the probability of maintaining rates rose to 94.8%, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding future rate cuts [4] Group 2 - The unexpected strong performance of the non-farm report has shattered hopes for a July rate cut, pushing expectations for rate cuts to September instead, with the total expected cuts for the year revised down from three to two [4] - Despite the positive non-farm data, the average employment in the first half of the year is significantly lower than last year's average, suggesting a slowdown in the overall labor market [4] - Technically, gold is in a bullish trend after a period of adjustment, with support levels at $3,200 and $3,250, and resistance at $3,450, indicating potential for a breakout above $3,500 [5]

澳储行日内宣布维持利率在3.85%不变，此前市场预期该央行将降息25个基点。利率决议公布后，澳元 兑美元短线拉升，日内涨幅约1%。 剔除海外因素，国内私人需求正逐步复苏，实际家庭收入回升，部分金融压力指标缓解。但部分行业企 业仍反映需求疲软导致成本难转嫁至终端价格。同时多项指标显示劳动力市场依然紧张：未充分就业率 处于低位，企业调查显示劳动力短缺仍是普遍制约。剔除季度波动后，薪资增速已从峰值放缓，但生产 率未提升，单位劳动力成本增幅仍高。 国内外形势使澳大利亚经济与通胀前景均存在不确定性。近期货币政策宽松的滞后效应、企业定价与薪 资对供需平衡的反应、劳动力市场紧张及生产率持续疲软等因素亦增加不确定性。 此前金融市场和经济学家预测澳储行政策转向鸽派，日内的决定显示，澳储行仍不急于调整，欲等待更 多经济放缓的证据。分析师表示，澳储行将保留进一步宽松的选项，8月有可能降息。 （文章来源：新华财经） 澳储行官员们认为，通胀风险更趋平衡，劳动力市场保持强劲，但对前景持谨慎态度——尤其在总供需 不确定性加剧的背景下，可能需要等待更多信息才能确认通胀率仍有望达到2.5%的可持续水平。当前 货币政策已为应对潜在国际冲击做好充 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates that its monetary policy is well-prepared to respond decisively to changes in international circumstances, with multiple indicators showing that the labor market remains tight [1] Group 1 - The RBA is ready to take action in response to international developments [1] - Labor market indicators suggest ongoing tightness in the labor market [1]