Group 1 - The European Union's agricultural commissioner stated that the EU will not lower food safety standards in trade negotiations with the United States [1]

自从特朗普大搞关税政策以来，不少国家甚至连美国自身都受到了影响。 哪里有压迫，哪里就有反抗。 面对这种行为，中方坚决反制。 而不少国家对美国的加税政策也拒不接受，对美国强硬的国家越来越多。 当特朗普大刀阔斧地推出对中国和其他国家加征关税时，他无疑高估了自己的底气。 刚开始，似乎他真的做到了"以关税制胜"，尤其是在贸易战的初期； 美国的经济似乎并未受到太大冲击，反而不少国家都试图在这种高压政策下找到妥协的空间，可随之而来的是一场全球性的反击。 中国作为全球制造业中心，凭借着庞大的市场和无可替代的供应链优势，迅速做出了反制。 这一反制不仅仅是一个经济层面的回击，更在国际政治舞台上打响了声势，让其他国家纷纷警觉。 中美贸易谈判中的一系列变化，正是其他国家的转折点，许多国家开始放慢与美国的谈判进程，拒绝在美国的压力下匆忙做出妥协。 更令特朗普意外的是，越来越多的国家开始以中国的反制措施为蓝本，改变了自己对美国的态度。 中美之间的冲突，反而成了全球其他国家的"活教材"，教会了它们如何面对美国的关税压迫，如何在全球博弈中争取更多话语权。 | 北京时间 5月12日 | | | --- | --- | | 中美联合声明 | ...

智通财经6月6日电，前日本财务省财务官古泽满宏表示，在与美国的贸易谈判中，日本是否真的可以利 用其持有的巨额美债作为讨价还价的工具令人怀疑。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The RMB is expected to run strongly. In the short term, its trend is stronger than market expectations, mainly driven by the US dollar's correction and settlement. Despite rising tariff disturbances, the RMB's sensitivity to external trade uncertainties has decreased, and the exchange rate is generally running strongly [41][43] Summary by Directory 1. Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility of the USD/CNY option is declining. The 3 - month implied volatility curve shows that the Call - end and Put - end volatilities are equal, indicating a weakened market expectation for future USD/CNY volatility [4] - Regarding the term structure, data on the New Exchange's USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and US - China interest rate differentials for different time periods (this week, last week, last month) are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [8] Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor hovers around 0% and shows fluctuations. The 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread shows a fluctuating trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] 2. Fundamentals and Views Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy** - Fed's interest rate cut and liquidity: By 2025, the Fed's interest rate cut is priced at 49.4bp, and the pricing of the US interest rate cut has declined. The TGA account balance on May 28 was $436.6 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $173.6 billion. Multiple Fed officials are concerned that Trump's tariff policies may cause inflation and impact the economy and employment [18] - The risk of economic downturn is rising. Employment is mixed (US non - farm payrolls in April decreased moderately, and the unemployment rate remained flat), inflation is falling, and the economy is marginally declining (fiscal spending has decreased, the April economic sentiment has declined, and retail sales in April have rebounded) [20] - The 30 - year US Treasury yield has exceeded 5%. Factors include the Fed Chairman's adjustment of the policy framework, the downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating, the continuous rolling over of US Treasury bonds, the possible arrival of the "X - date" in August, and Trump's tax - cut bill [24][28] - **China's Economy** - The economic structure is differentiated. In April, the overall data faced external pressure, but there may be a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of tariffs [35] - In May, the national PMI was 49.5, with a month - on - month value of 0.5, a year - on - year value of 0, and a difference of 0.2 from the recent average. Production increased by 0.9 to 50.7, and new orders increased by 0.6 to 49.8, with production higher than orders. Among different industries, intermediate goods, equipment, and consumer goods industries rebounded, while raw materials declined [37] Tariff Events - **Tariff Negotiations** - In the latest week, there have been many major events in the US tariff field. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump also proposed to increase steel tariffs. The US government has requested countries to submit trade negotiation plans by June 4th [21] - Trade negotiations among 15 key countries and regions show a differentiated pattern. For example, the UK and the US have signed an agreement, China - US negotiations have faced new discriminatory measures from the US, and India may be the next to reach an agreement with the US [21] - **Possible Negotiation Framework: "Tariff + Quota"** - India has proposed various tariff adjustment and market access plans, such as significantly reducing the average tariff difference with the US and implementing zero - tariff arrangements for some products [23] - The UK and the US have reached a principle - based framework agreement, including tariff adjustments for various products such as beef, automobiles, and steel, as well as cooperation in other aspects like intellectual property and defense [23] - China and the US have agreed to adjust tariffs and cancel some counter - measures after the Geneva economic and trade talks [23] Other Events - **The "Big and Beautiful" Bill** - It has been submitted to the Senate, and there are increasing differences within the Republican Party. The bill includes tax reform, medical reform, immigration policy, defense budget, energy policy, and education and welfare reform, which will have various economic impacts such as reducing federal tax revenue and increasing the deficit [29][30][31] - **US May "Rush to Import"** - The performance of the manufacturing sub - items in May was average. Output increased by 1.4% (previous value - 4.3%), self - owned inventory decreased by 4.1% (previous value - 2.6%), new export orders decreased by 3% (previous value - 6.5%), imports decreased by 7.2% (previous value - 3%), and new orders increased by 0.4% (previous value - 3.7%) [32] 3. Risk Assessment - The range of the basis fluctuation of the USD/CNY futures from May 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years) is between - 1100 and 900 [46]

Group 1 - South Korea will continue discussions with the United States regarding its foreign exchange policy to promote mutual understanding [1] - The U.S. Treasury Department previously placed South Korea on a monitoring list and urged it to restrain from intervening in the exchange rate [1] - South Korea's Ministry of Finance stated that it will seek to enhance "mutual understanding and trust" through regular communication and current foreign exchange consultations with the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Officials from the U.S. and South Korea held exchange rate consultations in Milan last month [1] - There is speculation that the Trump administration may be willing to accept a depreciation of the dollar, with exchange rates potentially becoming a topic in trade negotiations [1]

| 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 42319.74 | -108 | -0.25% | | | 纳斯达克 | 19298.45 | -162.04 | -0.83% | | | 标普500 | 5939.3 | -31.51 | -0.53% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5410.55 | 5.4 | 0.10% | | | 英国富时100 | 8811.04 | 9.75 | 0.11% | | | 法国CAC40 | 7790.27 | -14.40 | -0.18% | | | 德国DAX | 24323.58 | 47.1 | 0.19% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1137.28 | -1.03 | -0.09% | | | 上证信数 | 3384.1 | 7.9 | 0.23% | | | 深证成指 | | 10203.5/L _ 58.92 | 0.58% | | | 创业板指anghul.co | | 2048.62 goguda23,68m | 1.17% | | | ...

金十数据6月6日讯，据日经新闻报道，有知情人士透露，美国和日本之间的关税谈判因三名对贸易持不 同看法的美国高级官员的参与而变得复杂。美国财长贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔之间 的公开分歧、竞争和混乱，使日本谈判代表难以判断特朗普政府的真实立场。一位消息人士称，在最近 的一次会议上， 三名内阁官员一度暂停了与日方的会谈，并在日方面前开始辩论。另一位与日本政府 关系密切的消息人士表示："这三名官员正在争夺功劳。"他推测，这可能是为了讨好美国总统特朗普。 这位知情人士说， 三人有时会分别向日本施压，要求其做出让步。另有日本高级经济官员表示："在目 前的会谈中，美国的工作层、内阁官员、总统等3个层面脱节，似乎没有分享信息。" 美国内阁官员意见割裂 日本在贸易谈判中云里雾里 ...

德国总理默茨：我们同意（德国）总理府和白宫将在贸易谈判上更加紧密地合作。 ...

当前，欧元区的通胀水平可以支持欧洲央行此次的降息决定。欧盟统计局最新公布的数据显示，欧元区 5月调和消费者价格指数(HICP)同比增长1.9%，较4月时的2.2%进一步下降，同时也是今年首次低于欧 洲央行设定的2%通胀目标。 与此同时，剔除能源、食品、烟草和酒类的欧元区5月核心HICP从4月的2.7%大幅下降至5月的2.3%。服 务业通胀水平也从4月的4%明显下降至5月的3.2%。 北京时间6月5日晚，欧洲央行召开6月货币政策会议，宣布降息25个基点，存款机制利率、主要再融资 利率和边际借贷利率分别下降至2.00%、2.15%和2.40%，符合市场预期。这是欧洲央行自2024年6月宣 布降息以来第八次下调利率。 欧洲央行在货币政策声明中表示，决心要确保通胀率持续稳定在2%的中期目标水平，尤其是在当前这 种不确定性异常突出的情况下。欧洲央行将采取基于数据且逐次会议决定的方式，来确定适当的货币政 策立场。同时，欧洲央行表示，不会预先承诺特定的利率路径。 尽管欧元区一直面临着美国特朗普政府的关税威胁，但总体而言，当前欧元区的经济仍相对稳健。数据 显示，欧元区5月综合采购经理人指数(PMI)终值为50.2，略高于50 ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets experienced volatility in April and May but showed signs of recovery due to trade negotiations and other factors [1][2] - The European political stability and large-scale stimulus plans, along with signs of moderate recovery in the Chinese economy and resilience in the US economy, indicate that global equities may still be an attractive asset class [1][4] - High inflation above historical averages may favor stocks over bonds in the medium term [1] Group 2 - The energy sector was negatively impacted by falling oil prices, making it the worst-performing sector in the MSCI All Country World Index [2] - Defensive stocks, such as consumer staples and utilities, recorded positive returns as investors shifted their focus [2] - Optimism around corporate earnings and sustained growth led to a rebound in information technology and communication services stocks towards the end of May [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks, such as the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and India and Pakistan, may drive market development in Europe, which has suffered losses due to these conflicts [3] - Post-German elections, European political stability and large-scale spending on infrastructure and defense are expected to boost the European economy, presenting interesting investment opportunities [3] - The Chinese economy is projected to show moderate growth by 2025, despite facing structural challenges, with a shift towards innovation and green energy policies [3] Group 4 - The US economy demonstrates resilience with stable growth, strong job creation, and slowing inflation, supported by high levels of technology and infrastructure investment [4] - Consumer spending remains robust, and the market is expected to react less severely to current uncertainties, creating favorable conditions for equities [4] - Global economic slowdown provides diverse growth sources, potentially leading to broader market development [4] Group 5 - Companies in the "infrastructure" theme are expected to benefit from increasing demand for digital and physical solutions, driven by cloud computing, 5G implementation, and smart city projects [5] - The adjustment of global supply chains and investments in renewable energy are stimulating demand for reliable power and logistics infrastructure [5] - The "smart manufacturing" theme holds significant potential as industries adopt automation to reduce costs and enhance productivity [5]