明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，美国贸易和移民政策的重大转变正在给美联储官员在9月前调整 利率制造不确定性。当前特朗普政府正与多国政府进行关税谈判。 最高法院上周裁定，美联储不受特朗普试图解雇独立联邦机构高官的影响。 尽管裁决允许特朗普撤换其他两家机构的官员，但法院明确表示该决定不适用于美联储，称美联储 是"结构独特、半私人的实体"。这一裁决似乎保护了主席鲍威尔免遭直接解职，但尚不清楚能否阻止特 朗普撤销其主席职务。 特朗普上月释放矛盾信号：4月17日在社交媒体发文称"迫不及待要炒掉鲍威尔"，数日后又对记者表示 无意撤换他。 卡什卡利周一指出，美国经济最大风险来自贸易壁垒和移民政策等重大新政的悬而未决。"我希望相关 谈判能更快取得进展，以提供政策确定性。" 卡什卡利坦言，"这种不确定性正在拖累经济活动，并给我们带来决策挑战，因为我们无法确定事态最 终走向，也就难以明确货币政策路径"。 过去一周，多名美联储政策制定者暗示，在关税政策及其经济影响明朗化之前，他们对利率调整的观望 态度可能持续数月。 特朗普上周晚些时候加剧了不确定性——他先是威胁对欧盟进口商品加征50%关税，随后将实施日期推 迟至7月9日。他还警 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the re-evaluation of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The US dollar index has experienced a decline due to a downgrade in the US sovereign rating by Moody's, with all three major rating agencies rating US debt below AAA [1] - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1%, while short-term rates remain stable, indicating rising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The derivatives market is seeing a record high of bearish sentiment towards US assets [1] Trade and Capital Flows - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased activity in corporate foreign exchange transactions [1] - The merchandise trade surplus has narrowed, with a net inflow of $64.9 billion in cross-border capital, indicating resilient exports but facing uncertainties [1] - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds is improving, as evidenced by a rebound in the custody volume of RMB bonds [1] Economic Indicators - Retail sales and industrial value-added output in April showed year-on-year growth, while the May LPR cut signals support for the RMB [1] - The preliminary May PMI in the US exceeded expectations, but the downgrade by Moody's has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Currency Outlook - The dollar is expected to maintain a weak position against the RMB in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The euro may be in a favorable position due to the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets amid US tariff policies [1] - The Japanese yen has shown resilience despite weak fundamentals, influenced by the downgrade of the dollar rating [1] Strategic Considerations - The focus is on the potential for a widening interest rate differential between the US and China due to fiscal risks and policy uncertainties [1] - Attention is also directed towards the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations, which could impact the euro's position [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [4] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on economic fact verification, with attention to sensitive commodities like crude oil, shipping indices, and gold; long - term focus on stagflation allocation [1][3] - The risk of US tariff escalation is rising, which impacts global trade and inflation expectations [2] - Commodities should focus on the transmission of fundamentals, and beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments for industrial products [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [1] - On May 19, the People's Bank of China stated that it would implement and transmit a package of monetary and financial policy measures. On May 20, the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) were lowered to 3% and 3.5% respectively. On May 23, the central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation [1] - From May 9 - 12, Vice - Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with both sides promising to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [1] - On May 15, the Ministry of Commerce responded to the adjustment of China's counter - tariff measures against the US, stating that it would adjust accordingly due to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China and expressing an open attitude towards the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] US Tariff Situation - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction approach. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and there may be export caps on specific products [2] - On May 17, US Treasury Secretary Besent warned that if countries do not negotiate "sincerely" before the tariff suspension period expires at the beginning of July and fail to reach a trade agreement, tariff rates will return to the "liberation day" level [2] - Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Revitalization Akazawa Ryo will visit the US from May 23 - 25 for trade negotiations. Japan and the US Treasury Secretaries agree that exchange rates should be determined by the market [2] - India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement, expected to reach a temporary agreement before early July. South Korea says its foreign exchange negotiations with the US are ongoing and no decision has been made [2] - The US Department of Commerce issued guidelines to strengthen export controls on China's AI - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that implementing US measures would be illegal [2] - On May 13, the US April CPI data was lower than expected, indicating further alleviation of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end [2] - On May 15, the Fed Chairman said that the Fed is about to adjust the interest rate - setting framework, and the "era of long - term low interest rates" may have ended, putting pressure on short - term Fed rate - cut expectations [2] - Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decline, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 [2] - After the Trump tax bill barely passed the House of Representatives, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose by more than 2 basis points, reaching 5.123%, the highest intraday level since October 2023 [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades on the decline in demand and then on the rise in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals should beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments, while agricultural products have a higher probability of price increases due to tariffs [3] - In the energy sector, the price of crude oil has declined. The IEA monthly report lowered the oil demand forecast for this year. OPEC + confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June, and a large - scale production increase in July is under discussion. On May 22, Brent crude futures fell below $64 per barrel, down nearly 1.6% intraday [3] - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027, and stop signing new agreements and spot contracts by the end of 2025. The EU and the UK announced a new round of sanctions against Russia on the 20th, targeting Russia's energy construction and finance sectors, and also including Chinese and UAE companies in the sanctions list [3] - The European Commission plans to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU [3] Other Market Conditions - US stock index futures tumbled. The Nasdaq futures fell 0.27% intraday, the S&P 500 index futures fell 0.32%, and the Dow futures fell 0.45% [7] - The yield of Japanese long - term bonds continued to rise. The 40 - year yield rose 6 basis points to 3.675%, reaching the highest level since its issuance in 2007. The 10 - year yield rose 5 basis points to 1.565%, and the 20 - year yield rose 5.5 basis points to 2.595% [7] - The preliminary value of the eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5, all lower than expected [7]

日本央行审议委员野口旭：目前不应调整利率，暂时应密切关注经济发展情况。 ...

日本央行审议委员野口旭：在经济前景不明朗的情况下，日本央行不应调整利率。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to lower interest rates below the neutral rate of 1.5%-2% to prevent inflation from falling below 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in the commodity market following the Geneva joint statement between China and the U.S., driven by demand recovery expectations and supply contractions in certain products [1]. Group 1: Demand Marginal Tracking - The demand increase in the 90-day tariff suspension period is attributed to the shipment of previously delayed orders and U.S. companies' potential actions to "rush imports and transshipments" [2]. - The recent rise in U.S. shipping prices indicates an increase in orders, which will sustain strong demand in the near term [2]. - For complex goods, the delivery process may not see significant growth in demand during the tariff suspension, while shorter delivery cycle products like textiles and toys may show increased purchasing by U.S. companies [4][5]. Group 2: Profit and Supply Decision Adjustments - Short-term supply changes have a greater impact on price elasticity, with maintenance and operational issues in PX and PTA providing upward momentum for chemical products [9]. - The actual pace of production recovery is constrained by large manufacturers' maintenance plans and strategic supply adjustments, which create price support independent of demand [10]. - Despite potential for rapid production increases in the upstream supply chain, the lack of significant demand growth and previous low-profit periods may limit the willingness of leading manufacturers to increase output [13]. Group 3: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a significant risk, with a potential increase in tariffs by 54% if no agreement is reached within 90 days [16]. - The U.S. fiscal issues may necessitate a focus on revenue generation and spending cuts, complicating trade negotiations and potentially leading to higher retail prices that suppress consumer demand [16]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions may also impact inflation expectations and commodity prices [17]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals may experience short-term price corrections due to tariff and geopolitical tensions but are expected to return to their roles as a store of value in the medium term [23]. - Non-ferrous metals may face short-term demand limitations due to U.S. procurement decisions during the tariff suspension, but medium-term trends will be influenced by Federal Reserve policies [23]. - The energy sector faces supply and demand pressures, with OPEC's production increases and limited demand support affecting price stability [23].

美联储副主席杰斐逊指出，需防止政策变化引发的价格上涨转为持续通胀压力。这表明美联储对通胀问 题保持高度警惕。在当前经济环境下，若通胀压力持续增加，美联储可能会采取相应措施，如调整货币 政策等。这对于投资者而言，意味着市场的不确定性增加。例如，通胀上升可能导致债券实际收益率下 降，从而影响债券市场的表现。对于 IEXS 盈十证券的投资者来说，在配置债券资产时，需要更加关注 通胀数据以及美联储后续可能的政策调整。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯提到，投资者正在重新审视其美国资产投资策略，但未见大规模资金撤离迹象。 他认为当前经济表现良好，货币政策适中，美联储有足够时间考虑下一步利率调整。这显示出美国经济 目前有一定的稳定性。然而，投资者重新审视投资策略这一现象值得关注。随着全球经济形势的变化以 及其他地区投资机会的出现，美国资产的吸引力可能会受到影响。IEXS盈十证券认为投资者如果持有 较多美国资产，需要思考是否要根据自身风险承受能力和投资目标，适当调整资产配置比例。比如，可 以考虑增加一些新兴市场资产的配置，以分散风险。同时，由于美联储有时间考虑利率调整，市场利率 在短期内可能相对稳定，但长期来看仍存在不确定性，这对固定 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 778.78 CNY per gram, up by 2.98%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 8272.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 2.04% [1] - In contrast, international precious metal futures saw a decline, with COMEX gold priced at 3313.50 USD per ounce, down by 0.63%, while COMEX silver was priced at 33.30 USD per ounce, up by 0.12% [1] Group 2 - The latest data indicated that the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.6% in March to 3.5% in April, with core CPI increasing from 3.4% to 3.8%, exceeding market expectations [3] - This inflation data suggests persistent inflationary pressures in the UK, delaying market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England this year [3] - Despite this, investors still anticipate at least one rate cut by the Bank of England before the end of the year, reflecting concerns over economic growth slowdown [3] Group 3 - On May 20, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.83% to 3292.60 USD per ounce, while the main Shanghai gold contract increased by 2.11% to 772.22 CNY per gram [4] - Federal Reserve officials indicated a need for more time to understand how trade policies affect business decisions, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [4] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 94.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with a 5.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4]

5月21日，印尼央行将关键利率下调25个基点至5.5%，符合预期。 ...