Core Viewpoint - The increasing debt pressure in the United States is undermining the foundation of the dollar's credibility, with Trump's policies posing a significant threat to the "petrodollar system," leading to the emergence of the new Triffin dilemma. In contrast, China's economy is solidifying its foundation for high-quality development and the transition between old and new growth drivers [1]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain unchanged, supported by a massive market of 1.4 billion people and the world's largest and most comprehensive industrial production system [1]. - China's fiscal policy has ample room compared to Western countries, with sufficient policy reserves available [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The moderately loose monetary policy in China ensures ample liquidity in the market [1]. - The effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two重," is significant, contributing to the stabilization of the real estate market [1]. Group 3: Market Stability - The stabilization of the real estate market lays a solid foundation for the stability and prosperity of the capital market [1].

在美国深陷关税战之际，中国趁低价狂囤2.5亿桶原油，4月进口量更是创18个月新高。中国这是在为什 么做准备？ 关税战开打之后，西方媒体不禁跌破眼镜：原以为中国的石油需求会稍微消退，谁料到居然大逆转！ 【西方媒体发现，2.5亿桶石油正运往中国】 【特朗普向全世界打响关税战】 更值得一提的是，中国的一些炼油厂甚至推迟了年度保养计划，就是为了趁着利润率高，猛造汽油、航 空燃油这些热门产品。看来，这真是个大家都想挤上去分享蛋糕的好时机。 当然，还有一个非经济因素，地缘政治的风卷云涌。中国和石油输出国关系良好，不把俄罗斯、伊朗、 委内瑞拉等国拒之门外。这些国家面临西方制裁，急需市场，于是降低油价，用薄利多销的策略维持出 口。 据说，俄罗斯的乌拉尔原油价格，就比国际油价便宜个10美元左右。这种情况下，中国企业能不动心 吗？ 不过，事情也没这么简单。中国还在利用这一机会扩充能源储备。因为有分析认为，未来美国或许会打 美元霸权的牌，影响中国的能源进口。 今年4月，中国原油日均进口量飙升至约1100万桶，比1月份增加了近200万桶，刷新18个月来的新纪 录。粗略一算，这相当于至少2.5亿桶石油入库。这到底咋回事？ 首先，我们得 ...

Group 1 - California Governor Gavin Newsom opposes the high tariffs imposed by President Trump on China, emphasizing the interdependent relationship between the U.S. and China [1] - Newsom aims to position California as a stable partner open to trade with China and other partners, despite not having direct high-level dialogues with China [1] - The White House announced potential tariffs on Chinese imports could reach 245%, including a 125% reciprocal tariff and a 20% tariff related to the fentanyl issue [1] Group 2 - China may be selling U.S. Treasury bonds as a countermeasure against the U.S., with a reported sale of $57.3 billion in April 2025, causing a spike in 30-year Treasury yields to 5%, the highest since 1981 [3] - The U.S. Treasury faced challenges in bond auctions, with a 20% share being absorbed by traders due to decreased demand, leading to a 1.2% increase in financing costs [3] - China has been increasing its gold reserves and promoting trade settlements in local currencies with countries like Saudi Arabia, which could undermine the dominance of the U.S. dollar [3] Group 3 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the 60% international warning threshold [5] - Predictions indicate that by 2050, federal debt could rise to 166% of GDP, with annual interest payments nearing $1 trillion, surpassing U.S. defense spending [5] - Public support for President Trump has declined, with less than half of respondents approving his performance, reflecting concerns over the U.S.'s global credibility [5] Group 4 - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk criticized the tariff policies and indicated that the company's production plans for humanoid robots could be affected by China's export controls on rare earth materials [7] - Tesla is actively seeking export licenses for rare earth permanent magnet materials from China, assuring that these materials will not be used for military purposes [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's firm stance against U.S. trade coercion, emphasizing that it will not accept any deals that sacrifice its interests and will respond resolutely to U.S. actions [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Strategy - The U.S. has imposed punitive tariffs ranging from 34% to 104% on Chinese goods, viewing China as its primary competitor and aiming to weaken its position in global supply chains [1][3]. - The U.S. is facing a significant debt crisis, with national debt exceeding $36 trillion and annual interest payments nearing $1 trillion, leading to a reliance on tariffs as a means to address its economic challenges [3]. - The U.S. trade strategy has resulted in increased inflation and a growing trade deficit, countering its intended economic benefits [3]. Group 2: International Reactions - Key allies like the UK and Japan have openly rejected U.S. pressure to decouple from China, indicating a miscalculation of U.S. influence [3][5]. - The article notes that the U.S. is using trade as a political tool, which undermines international cooperation and trust [3][5]. Group 3: China's Response and Adaptation - China has made significant advancements in overcoming technology blockades, having developed 21 out of 35 key technologies previously restricted by the U.S. [5]. - China's trade focus is shifting towards emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with its exports to the U.S. decreasing from 19% in 2017 to 14.6% in 2024 [5]. - The article mentions that the U.S. tariffs on Southeast Asian countries have inadvertently strengthened China's ties with ASEAN nations [5]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The trade war has led to rising inflation in the U.S., with a reported 3.5% year-on-year increase in CPI as of March, and declining consumer confidence [7]. - The potential for retaliatory tariffs could lead to a significant contraction in global trade, reminiscent of the Great Depression [7]. - The intertwining of trade and national security by the U.S. is increasing geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and Europe [7].

文 | 空纸 编辑 | 空纸 前言 2025年5月1日，美国总统特朗普发布了一条震动国际社会的制裁措施——任何国家或个人只要敢购买伊朗石油，就会被踢出美国市场！ 美国制裁伊朗的背后 美国的制裁绝非单纯的经济手段，其背后包含着浓厚的政治意图。 特朗普此次发布的制裁，名为针对伊朗石油出口，实则是将全球石油市场绑上了一根紧绳，威逼各国在全球能源市场中选边站队。 根据特朗普的说法，任何与伊朗有石油交易的国家或个人，都将被禁止与美国进行任何形式的业务往来。这一招让全球所有与伊朗有石油贸易的国家都面临 了前所未有的选择困境。 对于伊朗来说，这种制裁的影响可谓深远。伊朗不仅是全球石油供应的重要一环，而且其经济的基础也深深依赖于石油出口。 如今，美国通过"二级制裁"封杀了伊朗的石油出口渠道，这对伊朗来说无疑是一次经济灾难。 在国际油价的波动中，伊朗的经济不仅面临国内的通货膨胀、货币贬值、失业率攀升等困境，还将进一步加剧对外部经济依赖的危机。 这一消息一出，全球石油市场瞬间波动，油价瞬间飙升1.6%，引发了全球能源商的震动。 这次美国的新制裁措施，到底是从何而来？它会对全球能源市场产生什么样的影响？而中国在这一局势中的立场又会 ...

美国哪些部门是"深层政府"？美联储，无疑首当其冲。特朗普原先的计划，是一边对他国加关税，一边说服美联储降息，这样对美国 国内经济的冲击会小一些。但现任美联储主席鲍威尔，硬挺着不降息，还在特朗普背后"捅刀"，说美国加征的关税，不像特朗普说的 那样是外国政府在承担，而是美国人民。特朗普闻言暴怒，威胁要解雇鲍威尔，但他这话才放出来24小时，又主动澄清，没有解雇鲍 威尔的想法。 据每日经济新闻报道，特朗普对美联储的独立性发起挑战，多次暗示可能将现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔免职。太和智库高级研究 员、中国现代国际关系研究院前副院长王在邦向《每日经济新闻》记者（简称每经记者）表示，特朗普宣称罢免鲍威尔，迅速向市场 传递一个美元要"完蛋"的信号，引起金融市场恐慌。美联储丧失独立性是推倒美元霸权的第一张多米诺骨牌，相当于投向美元信用的 一枚核弹。 近日有彭博社消息称，特朗普正在尝试通过对美国盟友施压，以达成对中国新能源领域的打压，减缓中国制造的扩张，最终将中国挤 出全球新能源的供应链。不出所料，特朗普手中的底牌还是关税威胁，他宣称，那些不顺从美国的国家，将会遭受美国的"二级关 税"。不得不说，这一招对于美国的贸易伙伴来说真是 ...

一波未平、一波又起。 在五一假期结束的第一天，媒体又曝出了3件国际大事。 特朗普 第一件：13国联名反对特朗普的关税政策。 根据媒体消息，东盟与中日韩会议，也就是10+3会议在意大利召开，各国财长和央行行长都参加了会 议。 会后，13国发布了联合声明，强调将继续维持以世贸组织为中心的多边贸易体系，并批评了美国的关税 政策。 声明提到，贸易保护主义将严重影响到全球贸易，甚至是导致经济分裂，呼吁各国对特朗普政府的关税 政策表示警惕。 清迈经典 2000年，"10+3"财长会议中，13国达成共识，在泰国清迈共同签署了建立区域性货币互换网络的协议， 也就是《清迈倡议》。 该协议的建立初衷是为了尽可能的保障亚洲地区货币金融的安全性和稳定性，简单一点说，就是避免再 次出现"亚洲金融危机"。 尽管声明的措辞不算严厉，但13国表达的态度很明确，那就是坚决反对美国的对等关税政策。 对中国而言，这份声明的发布无疑是一件好事。 10+3会议 特朗普开启关税战之后，各国迫于美国的经济霸权，始终敢怒不敢言，只有中国和欧盟明确给出了反制 措施。 如今，东盟国家和日韩也明确加入到了反对行列，势必会给美国带来更大的政治冲击，也能一定程度上 ...

当特朗普以关税为利刃劈向全球产业链时，加利福尼亚州正以"国中之国"的姿态撕裂联邦制根基。州长纽森签署《贸易自主紧急法案》，宣布对欧盟、加 拿大等32国开放"绿色技术零关税通道"，并授权州商务厅直接与海外企业签订供应链协议。这种绕过联邦政府的"经济独立宣言"，配合其与德国巴伐利亚 州共建"氢能走廊"的密约，使加州实质上成为全球产业链重组中"去美国化"的桥头堡——其2024年对欧新能源设备出口额已超越对华传统贸易规模，占全 美同类出口的41%。 纽森的"叛旗"引发多米诺骨牌效应。自2024年特朗普重启对墨西哥、加拿大加征钢铁关税后，加州联合纽约、华盛顿等12州组成"关税受害者联邦"，以违 反宪法"商业条款"为由起诉白宫。其诉讼核心直指特朗普援引的《国际紧急经济权力法》——该法案本为制裁恐怖主义设计，却被用于对盟友实施无差别 经济打击。更激进的是，加州司法部援引州宪法"贸易自由权"条款，要求最高法院承认其"国际经济谈判代表"身份，此举若获支持，各州将首次获得与外 国缔结贸易协定的法律授权，联邦制或沦为"空壳"。 日本的"反水"暗藏利益算计。在特朗普要求日企将墨西哥工厂迁回美国的威胁下，东京一面派出经济大臣赴美谈判， ...

Group 1 - The core issue is that $6.5 trillion of U.S. debt is set to mature soon, representing over 70% of the total debt maturing this year, which poses a significant risk to global financial markets if not managed properly [1][4] - If the U.S. government fails to refinance this debt, it may face a technical default, undermining global confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - The rising interest rates on U.S. debt, with 10-year yields exceeding 4.5% and 30-year yields at 5%, could lead to an increase in annual interest expenses by $250 billion, accounting for over 20% of federal revenue [2] Group 2 - The potential consequences of failing to address the maturing debt include a 20% to 30% drop in Treasury bond prices and a significant risk of stock market collapse, particularly affecting high-leverage sectors like technology [3] - The situation could trigger a broader economic downturn, as rising bond yields would increase mortgage and corporate debt rates, suppressing consumer spending and investment [3] - If the U.S. cannot find a solution by June, it may lead to soaring bond yields, stock market crashes, and a decline in the dollar's value, potentially diminishing its status as a global reserve currency [6] Group 3 - In response to U.S. pressures, Taiwan is attempting to strengthen economic ties with the U.S. by increasing purchases and investments, which may lead to Taiwan becoming heavily reliant on U.S. debt [10] - Taiwan's foreign reserves, exceeding $570 billion, are largely invested in U.S. Treasury bonds, and there are indications that Taiwan may further increase its holdings to support the U.S. [10][11] - The U.S. is reportedly considering converting $36 trillion of its debt into 100-year zero-interest bonds, which could further entrench Taiwan's financial dependency on U.S. debt [11]

日本长期鞍前马后为美国全球战略卖命，没有功劳有苦劳，可特朗普倒好，将关税问题与美日同盟关系 割裂，一方面要求日本继续在反华战场上冲锋陷阵，另一方面则利用对日贸易存在的巨额逆差，磨刀霍 霍要收割日本的财富。尽管特朗普暂停加征日本"对等关税"，但却对日本输美产品保留10%的所谓"基 础关税"。这也就算了，美国之前对日本钢铝产品和汽车加征的25%的关税，并没有被列入豁免清单 中。 换句话说，特朗普就是把他加征的税率当成对日谈判的筹码，以这些虚无的东西换取日本在对美开放市 场，降低甚至撤销进口美国商品关税等问题上做出实质性让步。特朗普这种谈判方式，实际上就是在 玩"空手套白狼"的游戏，即在自身无须付出任何代价的情况下，迫使对方拿出真金白银"回报"他在关税 问题上的豁免，这种手法就跟他套路乌克兰的手段如出一辙。不过，日本不是乌克兰，不但识透特朗普 的套路，同时也有底气跟他说"不"。 据国际在线报道，日本首相石破茂就美日关税谈判问题表示，两国间立场存在隔阂，难以达成协议。他 轻描淡写的一句话，估计让特朗普听了晚上都睡不着觉，这还是那个他一直瞧不起的日本吗？显然，石 破茂做出这番表态，其实因为就是在向美方释放明确信号，日本 ...