Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve is escalating, with significant implications for the Fed's independence and monetary policy direction [1][3][13]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook plans to file a lawsuit against President Trump following her dismissal [2][5]. - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that lowering interest rates may be appropriate at the right time, maintaining a moderately restrictive policy stance [2][3]. Group 2: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - The Trump administration is exploring ways to exert more influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, particularly regarding the selection process for regional bank presidents [3][7]. - The upcoming reauthorization of regional Fed presidents, scheduled for February, has gained heightened importance following Cook's dismissal [7][14]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - Analysts warn that Trump's actions could signify the end of the Fed's independence, a situation not fully recognized by financial markets, which may lead to increased inflation expectations and risk premiums [3][13][14]. - If Trump successfully appoints a more dovish candidate to the Fed, the board could shift to a majority of "dovish" votes, significantly altering the power dynamics within the Fed [14]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Current market conditions reflect a distortion in the yield curve, with long-term yields rising and short-term real yields falling, indicating that the Fed's independence is under threat [14]. - The potential for a politically influenced Fed raises concerns about higher inflation and increased volatility in the financial markets [13][14].

1. 8月27日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.08%，标普500指数期货涨0.09%，纳指期货涨0.10%。 | ■ US 30 | 45,454.50 | 45,474.00 | 45,394.50 | +36.40 | +0.08% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ US 500 | 6,471.40 | 6,474.10 | 6,463.10 | +5.50 | +0.09% | | ■ US Tech 100 | 23,548.00 | 23,563.60 | 23,502.80 | +22.70 | +0.10% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.30%，英国富时100指数跌0.01%，法国CAC40指数涨0.47%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.19%。 | 德國DAX30 | 24,108.06 | 24,197.71 | 24,011.70 | -71.81 | -0.30% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 淵 英國富時100 | 9,264.75 | 9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve is escalating, with potential implications for the Fed's independence and monetary policy direction [1][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is expected to file a lawsuit regarding her dismissal by President Trump [3][4]. - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that lowering interest rates may be appropriate at the right time, while maintaining a moderately restrictive policy stance [1]. - The Trump administration is exploring ways to exert more influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, particularly regarding the selection process for regional bank presidents [1][5]. Group 2: Implications for Fed Independence - Analysts warn that Trump's actions could signify the end of the Fed's independence, a status it has held since 1951, with financial markets yet to fully absorb this significant risk [1][11]. - Former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard views Trump's attack on Cook as part of a broader effort to pressure the Fed, potentially leading to the dismissal of multiple regional Fed presidents [6][8]. - The potential for Trump to control the Fed's monetary policy could result in higher inflation and increased volatility in the financial markets [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Current market conditions reflect a distortion in the Treasury market, with long-term yields rising and short-term real yields falling, indicating that the Fed's independence is perceived to be under threat [12]. - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that if Trump successfully removes Cook and appoints a candidate favoring significant rate cuts, the power dynamics within the Fed could shift dramatically, leading to a majority of "dovish" votes [12].

美国联邦储备银行自1913年成立以来，上演了首次由总统直接罢免理事的历史性一幕。 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）。这在美国历史上前所未有，也是特朗普 就任总统以来对美联储独立性的最强力的一次直接干预。 国务院发展研究中心世界发展研究所研究员、太和智库高级研究员丁一凡向《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）指出，这明显超越了美国总统的 权限。如果总统可以随意干预中央银行的事务，独立货币政策就成了笑谈，金融市场势必产生动荡，甚至担心通货膨胀失控。 美国克里斯多夫纽波特大学副教授孙太一认为，"这已经不是单个美联储理事任期是否稳固的问题，而是整个美联储设置的初衷可能会因此失效。" 库克的律师8月26日宣布，将对特朗普的行为提起诉讼，正式向总统发起法律挑战。 一、特朗普"空前"罢免美联储理事，理由站得住脚吗？ 特朗普此举可谓开创了先河。回顾历史，自美联储1913年成立至今，从未有总统直接罢免过美联储理事。作为美国前总统拜登于2022年提名的理事，库克 的任期本将持续至2038年。就在上个月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，她还与大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and could undermine trust in the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency [2][4][5]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's action has reignited doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence, with analysts suggesting it undermines the institution's ability to maintain unbiased monetary policy [5]. - Concerns are growing that Trump aims to install his own appointees at the Federal Reserve, further eroding institutional trust [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news, the U.S. dollar weakened across the board, and short-term Treasury yields fell, while safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin gained popularity [2][6]. - Analysts predict that the market may see more dovish members in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), increasing expectations for rate cuts and further weakening the dollar [7]. Group 3: Asset Demand Shifts - The demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen is rising, as investors hedge against the long-term implications of the Federal Reserve's compromised independence [7][8]. - The market's initial reaction was relatively muted, but analysts believe that potential risks have not been fully priced in, indicating high uncertainty ahead [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held this week. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares have risen significantly in the past month and are expected to enter a high - level shock waiting for a direction decision [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may face resistance at 1.78% - 1.8%, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract at 107.4 - 107.6 [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, while silver long positions above $38 should be held. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - Steel product demand has stopped falling and rebounded, and can be bought. Iron ore follows steel prices, and should be bought at low levels. Due to a coal mine accident, coking coal, coke futures are expected to rebound and should be bought at low levels [2]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season, while alumina has a supply surplus. Aluminum alloy consumption shows a marginal improvement trend [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil is under pressure from the macro - level, and short - term unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. Urea has a clear supply increase, and short - term trading should be in a band. PX and PTA are still recommended for long - positions [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean meal and rapeseed meal have long - term bullish expectations. Palm oil is running strongly, while sugar should be short - held [2]. - For special commodities, the impact of the coking coal incident has weakened, and glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has falling prices and should be observed, while lithium carbonate has weak sentiment and should also be observed [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are expected to enter high - level shock. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profit on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is expected to stabilize. Long positions can be lightly tried on pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. A bullish spread strategy can be constructed, and silver long positions above $38 should be held [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel Products**: Demand has stopped falling and rebounded. Long positions can be tried for hot - rolled coils and rebar at reference prices of 3140 and 3380 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: It follows steel prices. Long positions can be taken at low levels in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to a coal mine accident, long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases has been implemented, and long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season. Alumina has a supply surplus, and aluminum alloy consumption is improving [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil should be on the sidelines in the short - term. Urea should be traded in a band. PX, PTA, and short - fiber are recommended for long - positions [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal should have long - term long positions. Palm oil is running strongly, and sugar should be short - held [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate should be observed [2].

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for increased market volatility and inflation risks [1][6][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - This is the first time in history that a U.S. president has directly dismissed a Federal Reserve board member since the Fed's establishment in 1913 [1][6]. - Lisa Cook was appointed by President Biden in 2022, and her term was set to last until 2038 [6][9]. Group 2: Reasons for Dismissal - Trump cited alleged mortgage loan fraud as the reason for Cook's dismissal, claiming she misrepresented her properties to obtain lower loan rates [6][8]. - Cook's lawyer announced plans to sue Trump, challenging the legality of the dismissal [3][6]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Experts argue that Trump's actions threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could lead to political interference in monetary policy [3][10]. - The Federal Reserve's response emphasized that board members have long-term fixed terms and can only be dismissed for "cause," which typically involves serious misconduct [7][10]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Cook's dismissal, there was a notable drop in the 2-year Treasury yield and fluctuations in the stock and gold markets, indicating market concerns over the Fed's independence [12][13]. - Analysts predict that if Trump's influence over the Fed increases, it could lead to more uncertainty in monetary policy and financial markets [10][12]. Group 5: Future Considerations - Trump is reportedly seeking to appoint new members to the Fed, which could shift the balance of power within the board [8][10]. - The potential for increased political influence on monetary policy raises questions about the Fed's ability to manage inflation effectively in the long term [10][12].

| 11/11/2 | > 國發期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月27日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属震荡。市场定价9月美联储降息基本板上钉钉，不过后续经济走向仍存不确定性。特朗普罢免美 联储官员令美联储独立性问题回归或继续削弱美元信用,库克的律师已就被解雇一事寻求司法裁决。国际金 银处于震荡趋势之中继续测试上方关键阻力，维持回调买入多头思路。 ★美联储—1外媒：特朗普政府正在权衡影响地方联储的方案,并加强对她方联储主席选拔方式的审查。2 库克的律师已就特朗普解雇一事寻求司法裁决。美联储官方及特朗普均称将遵循法院裁决。特朗普表示，心 中已有接替库克的人选，可能会让米兰转任美联储其他长期职位。特朗普直言很快将在美联储占据多数席 位。3前白宫经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump publicly announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time in the Fed's 111-year history that a sitting president has fired a board member [1][3] Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Lisa Cook, an economist and the first Black woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, stated that Trump does not have the authority to dismiss her and intends to continue her duties [3] - Cook's lawyer announced plans to sue Trump over the dismissal [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite a relatively calm response from the U.S. stock market, the bond market showed signs of investor concern, with the yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds reaching its highest level in three years [3] - On August 26, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds fell by 0.04%, while the yield on 30-year bonds rose by 0.06%, creating a spread of 1.25 percentage points [3] Group 3: Historical Context and Implications - Historical instances of presidential pressure on the Fed, such as during the Nixon administration, led to poor monetary policy decisions and prolonged inflation [4] - Trump's actions have raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with analysts suggesting that his potential control could destabilize U.S. monetary policy and have global repercussions [6] - Experts warn that if Trump wins the legal battle for control over the Fed, it could signify the end of the Fed's independence, which may lead to regret for the country [6]

Core Points - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on grounds of alleged mortgage fraud, a move described as "unprecedented" and controversial [1] - Cook, the first Black woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, stated that she would continue her duties despite the dismissal [1] - Trump's letter cited Cook's alleged deceptive behavior regarding financial matters, questioning her integrity [1] Group 1: Legal and Institutional Context - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, all nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, with only two members currently appointed by Trump [4] - Recent reports indicate that the President cannot arbitrarily dismiss Federal Reserve officials; legal scholars assert that valid reasons, such as misconduct, are required for such actions [8] - If Trump succeeds in dismissing Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence [10] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates has been noted, and the dismissal of Cook may be an attempt to create vacancies that favor his appointees [6] - If Trump gains a majority on the Federal Reserve Board, it could enhance his influence over monetary policy, particularly in favor of lower interest rates [9] - Experts warn that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy and financial markets [10]