Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges facing the US dollar's credibility in the long term, highlighting a potential restructuring of the international monetary system if allied nations collectively lose confidence in the dollar [1][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - In September, the Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts, lowering rates by 25 basis points, which is not directly indicative of a weakening dollar credit [3][4]. - The Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment is under pressure, particularly with deteriorating employment data and inflation concerns stemming from Trump's tariffs [3][4]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates was made despite external pressures for larger cuts, indicating a commitment to its established policy path [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the Dollar - The Federal Reserve is facing a triple dilemma: policy indecision, confusion in monetary policy expectations, and threats to its independence [1][5]. - Trump's interventions in Fed policy and potential changes in leadership could further undermine the Fed's independence and the dollar's credibility [5][6]. - The ongoing trade policies and tariffs under Trump's administration are eroding the dollar's international standing and could lead to a reconfiguration of the global monetary order [6][7]. Group 3: Global Monetary System Dynamics - The article notes a significant increase in gold prices, reflecting a shift towards a multipolar international monetary system, with emerging markets increasing their gold reserves [6][12]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global reserves does not automatically benefit other non-dollar currencies, as they face their own structural challenges [12][13]. - The potential for a "de-dollarization" trend is highlighted, particularly if allied nations lose faith in the dollar due to ongoing US economic policies [6][7]. Group 4: Implications for China - China is encouraged to recognize the opportunity presented by the US's declining global economic leadership and to enhance the international status of the renminbi [13][14]. - Strengthening the domestic economy and improving the financial market system are crucial for increasing the attractiveness of renminbi assets [14][15]. - Historical lessons from the euro and yen's internationalization processes emphasize the importance of economic strength and the establishment of a robust currency settlement function [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government shutdown is not merely a budget dispute but a significant political crisis centered around the "Big and Beautiful Act," which reveals deep societal divisions in the U.S. [7][16] Group 1: Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful Act" redefines the standard for "poor," reflecting a strong sentiment against welfare dependency, which has garnered support from certain voter demographics [9][11] - The act includes tax cuts for specific groups, such as restaurant workers and blue-collar employees, aiming to attract Republican voters while simultaneously cutting welfare benefits for Democratic supporters [11][12] Group 2: Social and Economic Consequences - The new regulations under the act will require non-disabled adults to work at least 80 hours a month to qualify for Medicaid, potentially removing up to 12 million people from the program [12] - The act is projected to cause a revenue loss of $5 trillion to $6 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating an already high deficit rate of 6.4%, which could rise to 7.3% [17] Group 3: Political Dynamics - The shutdown provides an opportunity for the Trump administration to conduct a political purge, with approximately 150,000 federal employees believed to lean Democratic already leaving the government [14][20] - The conflict over the act represents a deeper struggle over defining who constitutes "the American people," with implications for welfare distribution and fiscal policy [16][22]

摘要今日周五（11月7日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4000美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3996.69美元/盎司，涨幅0.52%，最高上探至4001.32美元/盎司，最低触及3973.19美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周五（11月7日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4000美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3996.69美元/盎司，涨幅0.52%，最高上探至4001.32美元/盎司，最低触及3973.19美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 隔夜黄金延续震荡格局，盘中金价一度下探至3960附近，但随后一根大阳线强势拉升，直冲3990一线。 由此可见，当前黄金仍处于震荡态势，不过我们看涨的决心坚定不移，目标仍锁定在4030一线，现价 3988可直接做多。 摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，尽管美国总统特朗普多次公开呼吁降低利率，但他相信美联储将 保持政策独立性。 从黄金日线级别来看，正如昨日所分析，底部筑底信号明显。一根底部阳线强势止住跌势，且昨日收出 十字星，形成启明之星形态。目前K线已稳稳站上50均线，成功突破压制，关键的3950支撑位也得以守 ...

摩根大通首席执行官杰米-戴蒙周三表示，阿根廷可能最终不需要 银行贷款，并补充说阿根廷总统哈维 尔-米莱在整顿该国陷入困境的经济方面做得很好。"戴蒙在底特律接受采访时说："大约有 1,000 亿美元 的外国资本可能会回到阿根廷。"现在有一些大公司想在那里投资。""上个月在布宜诺斯艾利斯与米莱 伊会面的戴蒙说："如果米莱伊能在本届任期的剩余时间里继续执行他的政策，或许还能连任一届，那 么阿根廷就会发生翻天覆地的变化。他称米莱伊总统是 "自然的力量"，并列举了阿根廷降低通胀和经 济增长的例子。戴蒙还表示，他相信美国联邦储备理事会将保持独立，不过他强调美国总统特朗普将继 续就利率问题发表看法，而总统通常都赞成降低利率。"总统已经明确表示他相信美联储的独立性。他 还明确表示，他将畅所欲言，"戴蒙说。"我认为美联储将保持独立。" ...

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a complex scenario characterized by strong consumer spending, rising AI investments, and a softening labor market [1][3] - The growth is primarily driven by productivity improvements from AI investments, which have both direct and indirect effects on demand and confidence [1][3] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current productivity growth is a short-term cyclical rebound or a long-term structural shift [1][3] Economic Dynamics - Two opposing forces are influencing the U.S. economy: trade and tariff pressures, which are negative, and the positive impact of AI [3][4] - The current economic growth is strong, with productivity growth being a key factor explaining the disparity between output and employment growth [3][4] - The potential for higher structural growth in the U.S. economy is acknowledged, but the exact nature of productivity growth remains uncertain [3][4] AI and Employment - While AI investments are significant, there are concerns that they may lead to structural unemployment as certain skilled jobs could be replaced [1][11] - Individuals are advised to develop transferable skills to mitigate the risks associated with over-specialization in fields vulnerable to AI [1][11] - The historical context suggests that technological advancements have led to some job losses, but the current situation may be different, particularly for skilled labor [11] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates is limited due to the mixed economic signals and the potential for inflationary pressures from tariffs [5][6] - Inflation is currently around 3%, which is above the Fed's target of 2%, leading to cautious monetary policy considerations [6][7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer demand and business investment is still unfolding, with uncertainty surrounding the long-term effects [8][9] Tariff Implications - Tariffs have not yet significantly impacted consumer behavior, but their effects may become more pronounced as import prices rise [8][9] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing businesses to be cautious in their investment decisions, potentially leading to a decline in overall investment [8][9] - The current fiscal implications of tariffs are limited, primarily serving as a source of government revenue without altering fiscal policy direction [8][9] Inflation Expectations - The potential for inflation to manifest from tariffs is acknowledged, but the timing and magnitude of such effects remain uncertain [9][10] - The credibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target will play a crucial role in shaping long-term inflation expectations [10] - Short-term inflationary pressures may arise, but they are expected to subside if confidence in the Fed's target remains intact [10]

来源：滚动播报 摩根大通CEO戴蒙：认为美联储将继续保持独立，但总统会直言不讳地表达自己的想法。 ...

在特朗普近一年的持续攻击下，美联储正承受重压。这位美国总统的辱骂、解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的威胁、试图解雇美联储理事库克的持续行动，以及为减 轻政府债务成本而明确要求降息——除此之外，财政部长贝森特还指控美联储自金融危机以来越权行事。 在此背景下，彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）上周举办的央行独立性主题会议，时机再好不过。这场会议值得称 道：既没有过度恐慌，也没有不切实际地为美联储的所有举措辩护。 所有参会者一致认为，独立性本身不应是目标；货币政策制定免受政治干预的权利，只有靠"结果"才能证明其合理性。对央行官员而言，这已是最令人安心 的共识。 经济学家分歧加剧 美联储曾放任美国银行"大到不能倒"、涉足气候政策，还监管出10%的通胀率——正因如此，不少经济学家支持贝森特的观点：美联储过去的糟糕决策凸显 其独立性过强，应当加以约束。例如，胡佛研究所的约翰·科克伦（John Cochrane）认为，美联储若要独立于政府运作，必须承担更有限的使命，且问责机 制需大幅强化。 他的观点引发了哈佛大学教授、前财政部长拉里·萨默斯（Larry ...

8月美国总统特朗普突然抛出消息，说要把美联储理事莉萨·库克赶下台，说她搞了房贷作弊。这一下子 把原本就不安分的美联储又推到风口浪尖。可总统能轻轻松松解雇一名理事？没那么简单。 库克其实是拜登任命的独立理事，本来可以干到2038年，而特朗普这么做，大家都明白他心里盘算着什 么。 他希望美联储放松利率，政策上能听他的，这样他的人将来在里面说话有分量，利率怎么调也由他把 控。 文案|编辑：凤梨 库克的一举一动成了市场和媒体眼里的风向标。她要是真被换下去，后果不只是职位问题，更关系到美 联储还能不能和政治分开，关系着美国老百姓兜里的钱会不会因为政治而被折腾。 处在风暴中心的库克并没有对外讲自己被"解雇"这事，而是直接聊起美国的经济现状。她提到美国的就 业市场已经开始吃紧了，很多黑人失业率又涨了，她盯着这些数据不放。 但说到通胀，她又非常坚定地表示，现在利率够用了，再乱调反而打乱局面。她这一番话不是一头倒向 哪一边，是在给美联储里分歧越来越大的两拨人打个"平手"。 有些人急着降息，觉得物价上涨是短期现象，不降息就怕就业糟糕到底；而另一些人铁了心要抗住，坚 持生活成本高得让人喘不过气，绝不能轻易放水。 库克没就这样认了， ...

哈西特现年63岁，拥有宾夕法尼亚大学经济学博士学位。1989年，他以哥伦比亚大学助理教授身份开启 职业生涯，随后在美联储工作至1997年。之后他加入一家保守派智库美国企业研究所，并逐渐成为共和 党的经济专家之一。 参考消息网11月4日报道法国《回声报》网站10月29日刊发题为《五位有望接替鲍威尔的亲特朗普候选 人是谁？》的文章，作者是法索菲·罗兰、巴斯蒂安·布绍、科朗坦·沙普龙和朱丽叶·鲁塞尔。全文摘编如 下： 特朗普本周初已确认，将在年底前公布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者人选。这一时间点距离鲍威尔任期结 束(2026年5月15日)还有五个月。特朗普或许希望在鲍威尔任期结束前削弱这位他口中的"太迟先生"的 影响力。 美国总统任命美联储主席能够对货币政策走向产生影响，但这种影响是有限的。事实上，美联储主席的 意见要获得通过，需要得到联邦公开市场委员会其他11位有投票权成员的多数支持。其中六位理事由美 国总统任命，任期14年(拜登任命了三位，其余三位由特朗普任命)。另外五位则是地区联邦储备银行行 长，由地方任命产生。 最终胜出的下届美联储主席很可能出自财长斯科特·贝森特已经拟好的名单。感恩节后，贝森特将向美 国总统提 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - Asymmetric monetary policy has led to higher U.S. Treasury yields being maintained for longer periods, adversely affecting the real economy[2] - The Federal Reserve's hesitation to implement aggressive rate cuts is due to persistent inflation concerns, contrasting with previous rate hikes[2] - The urgency for rate cuts is particularly strong from the White House, as the government’s fiscal power relies on manageable debt levels[2] Group 2: Trump's Influence on the Federal Reserve - Trump's strategy to increase his influence over the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) involves a three-step approach to restructure the Federal Reserve's power dynamics[3] - The first step is to secure a "shadow chairman" to align monetary policy with his expectations, marking the beginning of his intervention[3] - Trump aims to gain a majority on the Board of Governors, currently holding 3 out of 7 seats, needing just 1 more to achieve a majority[4] Group 3: Regional Federal Reserve Presidents - The regional Federal Reserve presidents have gained significant influence in FOMC decisions, with a historical trend showing they cast more dissenting votes than Board members[6] - Since 1936, 72% of dissenting votes from regional presidents have favored tightening policies, compared to only 30% from Board members[6] - Trump's control over the Board of Governors is crucial for influencing the appointment of regional Federal Reserve presidents, as he needs at least 3 supportive votes from them[5] Group 4: Key Upcoming Events - The court ruling on the Cook case in January 2026 will be pivotal for Trump's ability to control the Board majority[5] - The end of terms for all 12 regional Federal Reserve presidents in February 2026 presents an opportunity for Trump to reshape the FOMC by appointing more dovish members[7]