这份声明的签署者包括美联储前主席伯南克、格林斯潘，美国财政部前部长耶伦、盖特纳、保尔森、鲁 宾，白宫经济顾问委员会前主席伯恩斯坦、曼昆等。声明强调，法治是美国经济成功的根基，破坏美联 储独立性可能给通胀形势和整体经济运行带来极为不利的影响。 同日，国际评级机构惠誉和标普表示，美联储的独立性是支撑美国主权信用评级的关键因素，如果"政 治发展"影响到美联储的独立性，美国主权信用评级可能会面临压力。 来源：中国新闻网 中新社纽约1月12日电 (记者 王帆)美国财经界12日就美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查一事表示，美联储的 独立性至关重要，其若受损，将对美国经济造成负面影响。 当天，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士发表联合声明称，美联储的独立性以及公众对此的认知对 美国经济表现至关重要，而对鲍威尔的刑事调查是在企图削弱这一独立性。 鲍威尔11日晚在美联储网站发表声明证实，美国司法部9日发出大陪审团传票，就美联储总部大楼翻新 工程有关问题对他发起刑事调查。鲍威尔称，对他进行调查"真正的原因在于美联储没有迎合总统的偏 好"，所谓调查只是破坏美联储独立性的"借口"。 美国总统特朗普自开启第二任期以来，一直敦促美联储降息。此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reflects a significant power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, particularly in light of Trump's criticism of Powell's refusal to implement substantial rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation, approved by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia, focuses on Powell's public statements and related expenditure records, particularly concerning a $2.5 billion renovation project that has exceeded its budget [1][4]. - The inquiry is led by allies of Trump and aims to determine whether Powell misled Congress regarding the renovation project [3]. - The investigation symbolizes a broader conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve, with Trump previously threatening legal action against Powell for the renovation project and accusing Fed officials of misconduct [3][4]. Group 2: Renovation Project Insights - The renovation project at the Federal Reserve headquarters, which began in 2022 and is expected to be completed by 2027, has seen a budget overrun of approximately $700 million due to rising costs and unforeseen issues such as asbestos and soil contamination [4]. - Powell has denied allegations regarding luxury features for senior officials, asserting that the project involves necessary updates to comply with accessibility laws and address safety concerns [4]. Group 3: Succession and Future Implications - As legal pressures mount, discussions about Powell's successor are intensifying, with Trump indicating he has selected a candidate to replace Powell, potentially Kevin A. Hassett, his chief economic advisor [5]. - Powell's term as Chairman will end in May 2024, but he will remain a Federal Reserve Board member until January 2028, leaving open the possibility of continued service in some capacity [5].

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. government has escalated sanctions against Iran, urging American citizens to leave the country immediately, indicating a significant rise in regional conflict risk [3][4] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, marking a severe phase in the economic blockade against Iran [4] - Concerns have been raised that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, potentially disrupting nearly one-third of global oil transportation, which could lead to oil prices rising by $10 to $20 per barrel if fully closed [4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - Trump warned that a negative ruling from the Supreme Court regarding tariffs could result in actual compensation costs amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, potentially reaching "trillions" when including related investments [6][7] - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has sparked backlash, with former Fed chairs emphasizing the importance of central bank independence, which has led to increased market uncertainty and a rise in precious metal prices [8][9] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the geopolitical tensions and domestic policy concerns, gold and silver prices surged, with gold reaching $4,596.96 per ounce and silver at $85.55 per ounce [8] - Major bond investment firms have warned that challenges to the Fed's independence could undermine its credibility in combating inflation, introducing significant risks to financial markets [9] Group 4: Overall Impact - Trump's recent actions across various sectors have heightened global uncertainty and systemic risks, pushing the U.S. and its global partners into deeper turmoil and competition [10]

自从去年重新上任以来，特朗普便多次公开要求美联储降息，希望通过降低政府的借贷成本，吸引热钱 回流，以此推动美国经济增长。然而，鲍威尔一直坚持美联储的独立性，主张美联储应当根据实际经济 情况来制定政策，而非屈从于政治压力。因此，鲍威尔屡次成为特朗普的眼中钉，特朗普也不止一次公 开威胁要解雇他。这次的刑事指控，无疑是特朗普与鲍威尔之间长期对立的一部分延续。 与此同时，也有不少人忧心忡忡，担心美联储在承受如此巨大的政治压力下，最终会屈服，答应降息。 然而，这样的决策恐怕会带来美国国内更加严重的通货膨胀，进一步推高民众的生活成本。鲍威尔曾多 次表示，美联储决策不受政治干扰，力求保持中立，但在现实面前，这样的坚持能否坚持到最后，仍然 是个大大的问号。在这种形势下，他将面临一个艰难的选择——是继续坚持原则、不让政治左右决策， 还是为了保全自己，屈服于特朗普的压力，做出妥协。 当地时间11日，美联储主席鲍威尔确认，特朗普政府已经向美联储发出了传票，并且威胁将对鲍威尔本 人提起刑事指控。这一消息引起了广泛关注，尤其是在特朗普威胁起诉鲍威尔的具体原因上。与其此前 炒作的美联储大楼违规翻修问题不同，特朗普此次的指控重点是鲍威尔去 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the U.S. Department of Justice's summons of the Federal Reserve causing early market turbulence, U.S. stocks rebounded strongly, indicating limited investor concern over the Fed's independence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the DOJ summons, the probability of a rate cut in March decreased from 25% to 20%, while long-term inflation breakeven rates remained stable [3]. - The stock market initially faced selling pressure but rebounded from its lowest point, reflecting three factors that mitigated the impact of political conflict [4]. - The market's response suggests that investor confidence remains intact, as evidenced by the slight changes in long-term inflation expectations [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Barclays strategists argue that political pressure on the Fed will have minimal actual impact on monetary policy, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance to assert its independence [5][6]. - The upcoming confirmation of Fed nominations may be hindered by the DOJ investigation, with Republican Senator Thom Tillis opposing all Fed nominations until the legal issues are resolved [4]. - The potential for political gridlock in the Senate may inadvertently protect the Fed's current status [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Barclays emphasizes the importance of focusing on economic data rather than political noise, highlighting that the U.S. economy achieved over 2% growth in 2025 despite negative headlines [8]. - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model currently tracks growth above 5%, indicating strong economic resilience [8]. - Investors are advised to pay attention to upcoming inflation data and bank earnings reports, which will be crucial for market direction [8].

而更棘手的是，这场风波背后并非单纯的装修预算纠纷，而是一场总统与央行之间的明面较量。当政治权力开始干预货币政策，美国如何继续维持制度领袖 的信誉？事情的起点看似微不足道——美联储大楼的翻修预算从最初的19亿美元一路飙升到25亿美元，引发外界质疑。2025年6月，鲍威尔在国会作证时还 硬气十足，坚称一切程序合法无误。但到了11月，局势骤然升级，哥伦比亚特区的联邦检察官启动刑事调查，技术层面的争议一下子变成了司法层面的风 暴。 2026年1月11日，这一天注定让华尔街震惊——美联储主席鲍威尔亲口承认，他收到了联邦司法系统的刑事调查传票。这一消息瞬间将事件从新闻层面推升 到了司法高度：一个掌控美国货币方向的人，如今竟成了司法调查对象。无论最终结果如何，这一信号本身都足够让市场紧张不安。 负责调查的正是特朗普任命的法律铁杆，外界普遍认为，这背后少不了白宫的推动。然而，要说这场调查完全是因为装修预算，那明显说不过去。真正触发 总统动作的，是货币政策上的分歧。特朗普希望美联储迅速降息，以低利率刺激经济，同时减轻政府债务压力。尤其在2026年总统选举临近之际，经济表现 直接影响选情。但鲍威尔始终态度谨慎，虽然2025年勉强 ...

鲍威尔本人将此举斥为白宫试图施压降息的"借口"，而他的任期将于5月结束，特朗普已开始面试潜在 继任者，包括贝莱德高管Rick Rieder。 今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于18.812一线上方，截至发稿，纸白银暂报18.947元/克， 下跌0.88%，最高触及19.327元/克，最低下探18.702元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 这一事件不仅加剧了政治干预美联储的风险，还直接冲击了美元的长期前景，导致美元指数周一下跌 0.23%，收报98.90，盘中一度逼近200日均线。Bannockburn Global Forex首席市场策略师Marc Chandler 表示，这一传票事件盖过了地缘政治因素，终结了美元的新年涨势。 【要闻速递】 美国司法部威胁就鲍威尔在美联储华盛顿总部25亿美元大楼翻修项目上的国会证词提起刑事诉讼，这一 消息如同一枚重磅炸弹，炸开了市场对美联储独立性的担忧之门。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格开盘逐步回调，跌至负值区间，目前跌超1%，一小时布林带向上缩紧，表明反 弹力度减弱，一小时MACD直方图处负值且逐步拉升，与反弹趋势形成背离，显示上涨 ...

美联储前主席耶伦周一严厉谴责针对其继任者——现任美联储主席杰鲍威尔的调查，称此举正在损害央行的独立性，并警告市场低估了这一风险。 她当天接受采访时指出，金融市场理应对当前局势更加警惕，并形容这一事态"极具寒蝉效应"。即耶伦认为，调查对美联储独立行使职权构 成强烈威慑，并可能成为改变其未来行为方式的"制度性震慑事件"。 "我很惊讶市场竟然没有更强烈的反应。在我看来，市场本应对此感到担忧。" 上述言论发表之际，美国检方正在就鲍威尔去年夏天就美联储大楼翻修项目所作的证词进行刑事调查。鲍威尔证实，他已获悉华盛顿特区联 邦检察官办公室正在调查其是否在去年6月向国会作证时，就美联储总部一项高额翻修工程作出了不实陈述。 鲍威尔还称这项调查是一个借口，是美国总统特朗普为施压美联储降低利率、终结央行独立性而采取的持续行动的一部分。 据悉，这项调查始于2025年11月，由华盛顿的联邦检察官、特朗普的亲密盟友珍妮·皮罗的办公室负责，调查内容是鲍威尔的国会证词和美 联储的支出记录。 美国司法部尚未正式确认该调查，也未确认是否会就"伪证罪"提出指控。 "有一位总统公开说美联储应该降息，以降低联邦债务的利息支出。我对此完全不同意。这是一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy stance is robust, with no immediate need for interest rate adjustments, as stated by New York Fed President John Williams [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Williams emphasized that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adjusted its "moderately restrictive monetary policy stance" closer to a neutral level [2]. - He noted that the current monetary policy effectively supports labor market stability and aims to bring inflation back to the long-term target of 2% [1][2]. - The expectation for GDP growth is optimistic, projected at 2.5% to 2.75%, with the unemployment rate remaining stable [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Williams anticipates inflation will peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to the 2% target by 2027 [1]. - He acknowledged that while inflation remains high, the labor market shows signs of cooling, leading to increased downside risks for employment [2]. Group 3: Defense of Powell and Independence Risks - Williams defended Fed Chair Jerome Powell, asserting his integrity and leadership during challenging times, amidst attacks on the Fed's independence [3]. - He warned against undermining the central bank's independence, stating that such attacks could lead to unfortunate economic consequences, including high inflation [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The market's response to the ongoing political and legal issues surrounding the Fed has been relatively calm, attributed to the uncertainty of how these matters will resolve [3][4]. - Williams described the current market volatility as moderate, indicating that the lack of certainty regarding the outcomes limits significant asset level changes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely, with domestic refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, causing concerns about the Fed's independence. In China, export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic cells are adjusted, potentially leading to export - rush actions in Q1. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 137,225 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,215 tons to 472,140 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. Despite short - term weakening fundamentals, positive sentiment in the precious metals market spread to the non - ferrous market, and the Q1 export - rush expectation also pushed copper prices up. It is suggested to buy on dips but avoid over - chasing highs [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan/ton, a 0.63% decline, and open interest increasing by 15,068 lots to 561,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2603 closing at 24,630 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase, and open interest increasing by 4,112 lots to 383,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract AD2603 closing at 23,445 yuan/ton, a 1.03% increase, and open interest increasing by 306 lots to 22,296 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,659 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed to par. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium purchasing sentiment, and costs continue to decline. After the environmental control of alumina ends, production resumes and imports supplement, causing inventories at manufacturers and downstream to accumulate, and the logic of spot converging to futures continues. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warrants may put new downward pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises are rushing to export, and the operating rate of the processing end is expected to remain resilient. The pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation eases, and the divergence between the macro and micro levels gradually converges, with the over - heating boost turning into a rational correction. Aluminum prices continue the high - level trend, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 2.12% to $18,075/ton, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.04% to 141,520 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 228 tons to 284,562 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 600 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From a fundamental perspective, as prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain strengthen, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons, which may put some pressure on the market price due to hedging demand. The Indonesian policy stimulates nickel prices to strengthen, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line, waiting for the actual implementation of the quota [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper rose from 100,240 yuan/ton on January 9th to 103,175 yuan/ton on January 12th, an increase of 2,935 yuan/ton; the premium of flat - copper rose from - 80 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased from 88,100 yuan/ton to 89,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased from 6,333 yuan/ton to 7,298 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME and SHFE registered and unregistered copper inventory remained unchanged at 138,975 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 145,342 tons to 180,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 2,760 tons to 469,921 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 353,000 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi aluminum price increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,320 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price increased from 24,100 yuan/ton to 24,390 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased from 23,700 yuan/ton to 23,950 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 497,825 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 6,501 tons to 97,413 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 129,818 tons to 143,828 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 730,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 14,000 tons to 144,000 tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton. The price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan increased from 13,200 yuan/ton to 13,300 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered nickel inventory remained unchanged at 284,790 tons; SHFE nickel warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased from 45,544 tons to 46,650 tons. The social nickel inventory increased by 2,126 tons to 61,046 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 18 tons to 855 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 23,880 yuan/ton to 24,030 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The price of SMM 0 zinc increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 111,500 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 3,533 tons to 35,341 tons, and the LME registered warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 98,775 tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 349,000 yuan/ton to 364,320 yuan/ton, a 4.4% increase. The SMM spot price increased from 349,750 yuan/ton to 368,550 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE tin inventory decreased by 1,001 tons to 6,935 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 5,415 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 6,333 tons, and the LME registered warrants increased by 10 tons to 5,290 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report provides charts on spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals, covering the historical data from 2019 - 2026, but no specific data analysis in the text for these charts [13][14][20][26][32][39]. 4. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, mainly researching aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, focusing on lithium and nickel. They have rich experience and have won many industry awards [46][47].