美元继续走强 金银趔趄回荡 周一美元指数以97.85点开盘，最高上试98.13点，最低下探97.75点，报收98.08点，上涨240点，涨幅0.25%，振幅0.39%，日K线呈震荡反弹小阳线，创两 周新高。 周一Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以7034.45点开盘，最高上试7121.41点，最低下探6941.20点，报收6963.68点，下跌72.64.85点，跌幅1.03%，振幅 2.56，日K线呈冲高回落小阴线。 周一国际现货银价下跌0.67%，报收38.13美元；现货铂金价格下跌2.8%，报收1360.10美元；现货钯金价格下跌2.78%，报收1182.25美元。 美元突破月线反压继续反弹，创两周新高，商品与贵金属市场全面承压。贵金属中，商品属性越强的品种，下跌幅度越大，体现了美元金融属性与商品市 场之间的正常关系。但美元与贵金属各品种中期运行趋势，尚未受到根本影响。 CPI今晚登场如何搅局？ 2025年07月15日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周一国际现货金价以3355.41美元开盘，最高上试3374.63美元，最低下探3340.92美元，报收3 ...

第一条噩耗来自欧盟。近日，特朗普突然宣布自8月1日起对欧盟加征30%的关税。他本以为这一举动能迫使欧盟妥协，没想到欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩随即 回应："欧盟与印尼已签署自由贸易协定！"冯德莱恩还特别指出，这是欧盟的一项重大突破，是令人振奋的消息！ 第二条噩耗则来自上合组织。前几日，巴西举行的金砖会议令特朗普感到相当头疼，甚至一度威胁要对金砖国家征收10%的关税。然而，随着会议结束，特 朗普却没有真正实施这个威胁，事情也就不了了之。没过多久，金砖会议结束后，中国便宣布将于7月15日在天津召开上合组织外长理事会，尤其强调印度 外长苏杰生将出席并访问中国。 印尼作为金砖国家的重要成员，毫无疑问，这让特朗普非常不快。此外，欧盟还在寻求与日本、加拿大等国团结对抗美国。日本和加拿大同样遭遇特朗普的 高额关税，他们并没有打算屈服。在当天，这三国的领导人齐聚一堂，试图询问特朗普是否感到紧张。 最近几天，特朗普与几位核心官员正在努力向中国示好。拿鲁比奥来说，他最近与中国外长王毅举行过会谈，提到中国时态度骤然转变，声称中美双方需要 加强友好合作。而特朗普本人在过去一周内，已经连续两次提到他与中国关系很好。 显然，特朗普已经意识到与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Rob Subbaraman, the global macro research head at Nomura, regarding the anticipated rise in inflation in the U.S. and the potential for stagflation as economic growth slows down in the second half of the year [3][6]. Inflation Drivers - The primary reason for the expected rise in U.S. inflation is the tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, which have led to widespread price increases [8]. - Despite the current low inflation levels, Subbaraman believes inflation will intensify, predicting that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise to 3.3% by Q4 [7]. - The second factor contributing to inflation is the immigration policies of the Trump administration, which have resulted in labor shortages in key industries, thereby increasing wage pressures [9]. - Lastly, the Trump administration is expected to implement expansionary fiscal policies ahead of the mid-term elections, which could contribute an additional 0.4% to 0.5% growth to the U.S. GDP but also lead to inflation [9]. Tariff Implications - Subbaraman notes that the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy may not be as limited as the market currently anticipates, suggesting that the administration may not back down easily from its tariff strategies [10]. - The logic behind the current tariff war extends beyond merely reducing trade deficits, encompassing geopolitical and diplomatic considerations as well [10][11]. - The article highlights a specific case where the U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, which reflects the broader implications of U.S. trade policies [11].

2025.07. 15 本文字数：2088，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间15日（周二），美国将公布6月消费者价格指数（CPI）。 种种迹象表明，在4月触及四年低位后，美国通胀指标将开始逐步回升。目前外界的焦点在于关税的 影响范围和持续时间，这将影响未来美联储的政策路径。美联储主席鲍威尔此前曾表示，他将关注今 夏的价格报告，以判断关税是否正在扭转过去三年一直在进行的反通胀趋势。 商品通胀回归 受能源价格下跌的影响，5月美国消费者通胀意外好于预期。当月，美国CPI同比上涨2.4%，略高于 4月份的四年低位2.3%，环比上涨0.1%，不包括食品和能源类别，核心CPI同比增速连续第三个月 保持在2.8%，环比上升0.1%，市场预期0.2%。 第一财经记者汇总发现，华尔街认为关税推动的价格压力将进一步显现。 预计6月美国总体通胀率将 攀升至2.7%，增速或创2023年底以来的最高点。按月度计算，CPI将环比增长0.3%，或为今年以 来新高。 不包括食品和能源，核心CPI月率将跃升至0.3%，同比增速有望进一步加快至2.9%-3.0%。美国银 行经济学家朱诺（Stephen Juneau）在报 ...

欧盟由27个国家组成，其中包括德国、法国和意大利这三大G7成员国，赋予了其相当强劲的经济实力。理论上说，欧盟有能力与美国展开经济博弈，然而 现阶段的欧盟似乎更多地表现出了一种"顺从"的姿态。即便如此，似乎欧盟的妥协并没有带来预期的好处，反而迎来美国的直接回击。最近，欧盟在数字税 问题上已对美国做出了让步，然而美国对于欧盟并未表现出任何温情，外界了解到日前，特朗普总统通过社交媒体发文，宣布将对欧盟加征高达30%的关 税。这一举动再次展示了美国在国际贸易中的强硬态度，尽管欧盟在某些方面已经让步，但美国看来并没有改变其原有的立场。 欧盟长期以来面对美国采取了一种屈从姿态，结果使美国对其不断施加压力。在美国发起关税战之际，曾多次威胁要对欧盟实施制裁，包括对进口汽车和钢 铁制品加征关税。如今美国再次宣布将加征30%的关税，法国总统马克龙对此表示强烈不满，而欧盟委员会负责人冯德莱恩也明确表态，欧盟保留实施反制 措施的权利。通过欧盟的回应，可以看出他们仍希望通过谈判来解决关税问题。然而从美国与日本的谈判情况来看，美国对于让步并不情愿，即便经历了七 轮谈判，最终也仅给予日本25%的关税待遇。 在现阶段的关税安排中，英国似乎成 ...

从中方近期一系列行动来看，这个问题已经被意识到了，解决方案已经出炉。今年5月，中国国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室部署开展了打击战略矿产走 私出口专项行动。商务部新闻发言人明确表示，今后相关部门会深挖幕后非法实体和走私网络，从严从快查办违法案件，持续提升出口管制执法效力，切实 维护国家安全和发展利益。有关部门已启动稀土出口许可证制度实施"一批一证" 制度，要求每批次稀土出口均需单独的许可证，且出口商必须填报最终用 户信息。 稀土矿石（资料图） 据环球时报报道，美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特日前表示，在上月美中两国达成协议后，美方期待中国能进一步放宽稀土磁铁出口限制。贝森特日前接受福 克斯新闻采访时，被问及中国是否已恢复对美关键物资供应，他表示，稀土现已恢复流通，但数量尚未达到4月4日之前的水平。 在此背景下，路透社报道披露，为绕过中方管制，有美国买家通过第三国转运拿到了矿物。比如根据海关和航运记录，自中国去年禁止向美国出口锑以来， 仍有大量锑从泰国和墨西哥涌入美国。中国在锑、镓和锗等关键矿物的供应方面处于主导地位，这些矿物被广泛用于电信、半导体和军事技术。数据显示， 从去年12月至今年4月，美国从泰国和墨西哥进口了 ...

Group 1 - The anticipated inflation in the U.S. has not materialized despite the ongoing tariff war initiated by Trump, indicating that retailers have not significantly raised prices [1][3] - U.S. importers are maintaining high profit margins, with average gross margins reported at 75% or higher, allowing them to absorb the 30% tariffs without passing costs onto consumers [1][6] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces criticism for not lowering interest rates, as the expected inflation from the tariff war has not occurred, challenging traditional economic theories [3][6] Group 2 - The ongoing tariff war has not led to the expected inflation, which raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy measures such as interest rate hikes [4][6] - The concept of inflation as a result of currency devaluation is highlighted, suggesting that the banking sector's interests may conflict with broader economic stability [6] - The potential for Powell's removal from his position is discussed, as Trump's economic strategies gain traction and are perceived as more effective [6][8] Group 3 - The article discusses the influence of "deep state" forces within the U.S. government and their impact on various sectors, including the potential for significant personnel changes in agencies like the State Department [7][8] - The article suggests that the U.S. has been providing advanced technology to Israel, raising concerns about the implications for U.S. military readiness and technological superiority [8][11] - The role of think tanks, such as the "America First Policy Institute," in shaping Trump's policies is emphasized, indicating a coordinated effort to counteract deep state influences [13]

展望未来，特朗普在与贸易伙伴的关税谈判中，多多少少会有 一些收获，但收获不会太多，实质性的收获会更少，有一些关 税协议，可能会用文字游戏的方式让美国赚面子。 作者：王义伟 封图：视觉中国 7月9日是美国总统特朗普自己划定的关税战的"大限"之日。不出外界所料，在这个日期到来之 前，7月7日开始，特朗普就以给相关国家领导人发信通知的方式，把与各国达成关税协议的期限 推迟到8月1日。 这是他第二次推迟期限，第一次是今年4月份。4月2日，特朗普向全世界开战，宣布对所有国家和 地区出口到美国的商品征收 10% 的最低关税，对贸易逆差较大的经济体加征更高关税，4月5日起 执行。4月10日 特朗普宣布关税战暂停90天。 特朗普的再一次后退，验证了美国媒体给他取的外号TACO（Trump Always Chickens Out特朗普 总是临阵退缩）。 那么， 在主动发起关税战之后，特朗普为何一推再推，将达成关税协议的期限不断向后延伸呢？ 笔者分析，原因主要有以下几个方面： 第一，棍棒打不死市场经济。 国际贸易虽然受经济、文化、地缘政治等诸多因素的影响，但总体而言，是靠市场这只看不见的手 推动的，且在长时间的运行中形成了内在的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the financial landscape in the U.S. is being reshaped by Trump's policies, leading to increased risk premiums for financial assets due to policy ambiguity and excessive fiscal consumption [1][2] - Trump's trade war aims to strategically contain China and generate revenue to address U.S. debt issues, but even a 20% tariff could only yield an additional $185.2 billion, insufficient to cover interest payments on the debt [1] - The bank's investment strategy has been adjusted to maintain a neutral allocation to equities, with expectations of performance divergence across sectors and regions, favoring the U.S. technology sector and service industries over commodity-focused sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The market in Q3 2025 is expected to be dominated by three themes: easing of tariff tensions, divergence in stock performance, and fiscal pressures that are unfavorable for government bonds and the dollar but beneficial for gold [2] - The unexpected easing of U.S.-China tensions is driven by pragmatic considerations, as the high tariffs effectively act as a trade embargo harming both parties [2] - The bank anticipates that while practical approaches may reduce tariff tensions, stock performance will significantly diverge, with technology and service sectors outperforming the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of trade tensions under Trump's administration, highlighting the challenges faced by the U.S. in maintaining its global leadership as countries like Brazil and Japan respond assertively to new tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies - Trump's new tariffs have reignited global trade conflicts, with significant backlash from countries such as Brazil and Japan [1][3]. - The "America First" policy has led to strained relations with traditional allies, as countries reassess their economic ties with the U.S. [3][4]. - The imposition of tariffs results in increased costs for imported goods, ultimately affecting consumers and businesses [3]. Group 2: Brazil's Response - Brazil has emerged as a key player, surpassing the U.S. to become China's largest soybean supplier, reflecting its discontent with U.S. hegemony [3][4]. - In response to U.S. tariffs, Brazil enacted the "Commercial Reciprocity Law," imposing a 50% tariff on U.S. goods and seeking new trade partnerships [12][17]. - Brazil's government highlighted a $410 billion trade surplus with the U.S. over the past 15 years, countering Trump's claims of trade deficits [10][12]. Group 3: Japan's Reaction - Japan's automotive industry faces severe impacts from a 25% tariff on imports, prompting strong criticism from Prime Minister Kishida [7][14]. - Japan's government has adopted a firmer stance against U.S. policies, emphasizing the need to protect national interests [14][17]. - The ongoing tariff disputes have led Japan to reconsider its economic relationship with the U.S., aligning more closely with other global partners [4][19]. Group 4: Global Implications - The article suggests that the U.S. is losing its dominant position as more countries challenge unilateral trade practices [4][17]. - The responses from Brazil and Japan signal a broader trend of nations seeking equitable trade relationships, moving away from dependency on the U.S. [4][19]. - The future of U.S. global leadership is uncertain, hinging on its ability to navigate increasing international resistance to its trade policies [19].