美联储现在巴不得中国能早点抛售美债？为啥他们一直不降息，因为他们很清楚，中国迟早会卖掉手里 那7800亿美元的美债。市场上能接过这么大一笔美债的，恐怕只有美联储自己，所以他们一直在等这个 机会。 先说说中国为啥买这么多美债。 其实道理很简单，中国这么多年贸易顺差，赚了不少外汇，这些钱得找个安全又能生钱的地方存着。 美债呢，就像个信誉好、利息稳定的"大银行"，全球都认，所以中国就买了不少。 这就像家里有余钱，存银行总比放家里安全，还能赚点利息。 但买美债也不是没风险。 麻烦在于，中国作为美债的第二大海外买家，一抛美债，市场肯定得波动，其他国家可能也跟着抛，这 对美国金融市场可是个打击。 美联储得赶紧想办法稳定市场，别让恐慌情绪蔓延。 但机会也有，如果中国真抛了，美联储作为"最后救火队员"，可能真得接盘。 这样既能稳定美债市场，又能让美联储在货币政策上更灵活。 比如，买美债放点水，支持美国经济复苏。 不过，美联储真"盼"着这一天吗？我看未必。 美元汇率一变，美债利息一调，中国手里的美债价值就可能受影响。 特别是现在美国债务越来越多，都快38万亿了，美元信用也有点动摇，中国就开始慢慢调整外汇储备， 减持点美债，买点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the USD/CAD exchange rate reflects the differing economic expectations and monetary policy stances between the United States and Canada, with the USD under pressure and the CAD showing relative strength [1][3]. Economic Data - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% from July to September, significantly exceeding market expectations of 3.3% and surpassing the previous quarter's growth of 3.8% [4]. - The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 2.9% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with market expectations, while the GDP price index increased by 3.7%, higher than the forecast of 2.7% [4]. - Despite strong economic data, there are concerns regarding sustainability, with some analysts noting that growth is partially reliant on healthcare spending and inventory depletion, limiting support for domestic demand [4]. Market Sentiment - The market is reassessing the future path of U.S. monetary policy, with expectations shifting towards potential rate cuts in 2026, which diminishes the medium-term attractiveness of the USD [3]. - The upcoming holiday season is expected to reduce market liquidity, making price adjustments more susceptible to changes in sentiment and expectations [4]. Canadian Economic Outlook - Canada's economy showed signs of recovery, with a preliminary estimate indicating a 0.1% month-on-month growth in November, following a 0.3% contraction in October [5]. - The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25%, signaling a cautious approach to future policy decisions based on incoming data, which contrasts with the discussions surrounding potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a more optimistic outlook on the fiscal and monetary policy statements from the recent economic work conference compared to market expectations, highlighting the expanded role of the central bank in promoting economic stability and reasonable price increases [1]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy Direction - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes five "musts" that align with the 2024 "overall" strategies, focusing on tapping economic potential and policy reform coordination, addressing the core issue of "strong supply but weak demand" [2]. - The fiscal policy continues to adopt a "more proactive" stance, maintaining necessary deficits and debt levels while focusing on local fiscal challenges and debt resolution [2]. - Monetary policy aims to stabilize growth and promote reasonable price increases, with plans to flexibly use tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2]. Internal Demand and Reform - The conference underscores the importance of domestic demand, proposing measures to increase residents' income, enhance service consumption, and expand budgetary investments to stabilize consumption and investment [2]. - Deepening reform remains a priority, with initiatives to advance the construction of a unified national market and address "involution" competition [2]. Risk Management - The article discusses proactive measures to mitigate risks in key areas, particularly in real estate, with a three-pronged approach to address challenges and focus on active debt management and restructuring [2]. Comparison of Economic Work Conference Statements - A comparison of the statements from the December 2024 and December 2025 conferences reveals a consistent acknowledgment of the challenges posed by insufficient domestic demand and external environmental changes, while also highlighting the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy [3]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Details - The fiscal policy will continue to be proactive, increasing the fiscal deficit rate and ensuring sustained fiscal strength, with a focus on enhancing spending in key areas and issuing special bonds [3]. - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose stance, utilizing various tools to ensure ample liquidity and support for key sectors such as technology innovation and small and micro enterprises [3]. Domestic Market and Innovation - The article emphasizes the need to build a strong domestic market by enhancing consumption and investment efficiency, implementing special actions to boost consumption, and increasing the income of low- and middle-income groups [3]. - It also highlights the importance of technological innovation in driving new productive forces and developing a modern industrial system [3]. Reform and Opening Up - The conference calls for significant reforms to enhance the vitality of high-quality development, including the deepening of state-owned enterprise reforms and the promotion of private sector growth [3]. - It stresses the importance of expanding high-level opening up to stabilize foreign trade and investment, while also promoting cooperation in various fields [3]. Urbanization and Rural Revitalization - The article discusses the need for coordinated development between urbanization and rural revitalization, emphasizing the importance of maintaining agricultural productivity and enhancing the competitiveness of the agricultural sector [3].

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二国债期货主力合约多数高开，早盘拉升一波后横盘，午后小幅再上后横向波动， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.89%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.26%， | | | | | 5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.17%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 593 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1353 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 760 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The interbank money market in 2025 is characterized by reasonable liquidity, a steady decline in interest rates, and continuous optimization of market structure under a moderately loose monetary policy environment, supported by effective central bank regulation [1][2][19]. Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank maintained a supportive monetary policy in 2025, utilizing various tools to ensure reasonable liquidity, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, leading to a decrease in the comprehensive financing cost [2][3]. - Structural monetary policy tools were employed to direct financial resources towards key sectors, with a total structural monetary policy tool balance reaching 3.9 trillion yuan by the end of September [2][3]. Market Operation Characteristics - The overall trend of money market interest rates showed a moderate decline, with the average DR001 and DR007 rates at 1.52% and 1.64% respectively by December 9, 2025, down 14 and 17 basis points from the previous year [4][5]. - The total transaction volume in the interbank money market reached 166.385 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in buyout repos and a decline in credit borrowing, indicating a structural shift in market behavior [6][7]. Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The net financing of interbank certificates of deposit turned negative for the first time in 2025, with a cumulative issuance of 31.9 trillion yuan but a net repayment of 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a contraction in net financing due to shortened issuance terms [7][8]. - The market showed a "long-short increase" trend, with the proportion of 1-year products decreasing while 3-month and 6-month products increased, indicating banks' need to control costs amid a loose monetary environment [8][9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The liquidity in the money market remained stable and ample, supported by effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, with a net injection of 56.396 billion yuan through open market operations [12][13]. - Weak demand for financing from the real economy, influenced by external uncertainties and local government debt pressures, led to a gradual decline in money market interest rates [14][15]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The economic outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with expectations of continued stable growth supported by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts and liquidity maintenance [19][20][21]. - The central bank is expected to implement a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 25 to 50 basis points in 2026, with a further moderate decline in interest rates anticipated to reduce social financing costs [21].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国第三季度实际GDP初值年化季环比大幅 增长4.3%，远超市场预期的增长3.3%，增速创两年来最快。消 费支出强劲成为增长的最大推手，当季增速大幅加快至3.5%。 三季度核心PCE物价指数上涨2.9%。另外，美国10月核心资本品 订单与出货量双双回升。评：美国三季度GDP数据大幅超预期， 并且产品订单和出货量也回升，显示经济依然较为强劲，提升 风险偏好。降息周期对白银依然偏多支撑，关注黄金波动对白 银的影响，注意盈利保护。 【短评-PTA】PTA装置周均负荷为74.8%，周环比持平,PTA 周度产量为141.1万吨，环比持平；TA社会库存在298.61万吨， 较上一统计周期下降5.78万吨。评：近端检修较多，12月平衡 表去库，而PTA供应尚未回归,1月也没有累库压力, 较此前预期 好转；中长期随着产能集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐 步改善；另外明年二季度PX检修较多，远端预期较好。低位偏 多思路。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月24日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证 ...

专题：四大证券报精华 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ "对明年的权益市场依旧乐观！"多位基金经理在近期的策略会上公开发声。近期，国泰基金、招商基 金、汇丰晋信基金、长城基金等多家公募机构召开了2026年年度策略会，多位基金经理围绕AI科技、 消费、创新药等多个热门板块的投资机遇展开深度探讨。 融创中国全面境外债务重组完成 彻底化解了债务风险 融创中国境外债务重组迎来新进展。12月23日晚，融创中国公告，公司约96亿美元的现有债务已获全面 解除及免除。公司表示，全面境外债务重组的完成，彻底化解了公司的债务风险。在境外债务重组落地 之前，融创154亿元境内公开债券重组也已完成。截至目前，融创通过境内外债务重组，整体偿债压力 预计下降近600亿元。 华夏幸福最新公告！审议通过调整修订《股东会议事规则》的议案 华夏幸福12月23日晚间公告，公司于12月23日召开第八届董事会第三十七次会议，审议通过了平安人寿 关于调整修订《股东会议事规则》的提案。12月22日晚，华夏幸福公告称，公司董事会会议否决了股东 平安人寿意图增加的五项临时提案。记者注意到，23日的这项提案与此前五项提案 ...

肖宇(中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员) 在经过10月底和11月初的短暂回调后，全球黄金价格再创新高。12月23日，COMEX黄金价格突破4500 美元/盎司，相较年初上涨约70%。 分析此次黄金价格的走势，可以从长短期两个角度入手。随着美国最新非农就业数据出炉，市场普遍预 期明年美联储将会延续宽松的货币政策。而在美国国内，由于美国财政纪律受到冲击正在成为既定事 实，这放大了黄金作为终极避险资产的价值。 看涨者有充足的理由，因为从全球支付结算和储备货币角度来看，短期内美元仍将占据一定主导地位。 随着美国财政收入与支出缺口不可调和的内生矛盾逐渐被市场所定价，美债全球资产定价之锚的属性正 在丧失，购买黄金就成为了当前国际金融体系剧烈变革下为数不多的可选项。 在别人恐惧时贪婪，在别人贪婪时恐惧，经济分析史告诉我们，大宗商品价格涨跌很难有持续单一的趋 势。在市场一片看涨声中，这些"与众不同"的声音，或许值得被听见。 作为世界货币，美元在全球央行外汇储备中占比一度超过70%。截至2025年第二季度末，这一数据仍然 高达56.32%。保持本国币值和外汇储备的安全性，是各国央行的重要职责。面对债务赤字货币化的操 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The market style tends to exhibit defensive characteristics at the end of the year, with large-cap value stocks outperforming, while the small-cap style represented by the CSI 1000 faces pressure [1] - Institutional investors are likely to adopt a conservative investment approach due to year-end performance assessments, leading to a decrease in risk appetite [1] - As the market enters the dense disclosure period for annual earnings forecasts in January, earnings uncertainty becomes a key concern, prompting funds to flow towards more stable large-cap blue-chip stocks [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 219 billion yuan last week, with upcoming maturities including 4.575 billion yuan in reverse repos and 3 billion yuan in MLF [2] - Money market rates are declining, with short and long-term government bond yields also decreasing, while the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has expanded [2] - The net inflow of funds in the secondary market has increased, with a rise in financing balances and net purchases of financing funds amounting to 3.42 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Sector Preferences and Fund Flows - High net inflows were observed in the electronics, communications, and power equipment sectors, with significant net subscriptions for the A500 ETF [3] - The information technology ETF saw substantial net subscriptions, while the military industry ETF experienced notable redemptions [3] - The highest net subscription was for the Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF, while the highest net redemption was for the Fuguo CSI Military Leaders ETF [3] Group 4: Overseas Economic Indicators - In the U.S., the November non-farm payroll and CPI significantly fell below expectations, with the overall CPI rising 2.74% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.06% [3] - The core CPI also rose 2.63% year-on-year, below the consensus expectation of 3.03%, indicating inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's target level [3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since October 2021 [3]

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，加拿大央行公布的 12 月理事会讨论纪要显示，理事会成员认为，尽管美国保护主义带来压 力，全球经济仍表现出一定韧性，但通胀仍面临上行风险；加拿大经济在近期数据修正后仍处于供给过 剩状态，贸易政策不确定性被视为主要风险因素，尤其是即将进行的《加美墨协定》审议可能对商业投 资和经济前景产生影响。在此背景下，继年内累计降息 100 个基点后，加拿大央行决定将政策利率维持 在 2.25%，并认为当前利率水平大体适当。 ...