周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 特朗普关税再度施压，美元短期走弱 市场风险偏好摇摆，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.4%。美元指数涨 0.22%至 99.3，非美货币多数贬 值，离岸人民币跌 0.45%，欧元跌 0.14%，英镑跌 0.58%，日元 跌 1.02%，瑞郎跌 0.16%，雷亚尔、韩元、比索跌超 1%，澳 元、兰特、泰铢、林吉特、新西兰元收跌。金价跌 2%至 3289 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 18.6，现货商品指数收跌，布油跌 2.5%至 63.9 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 股市情绪受到特朗普政府关税政策的扰动，先是美国国际贸易 法院阻止"解放日"关税生效，裁定特朗普以贸易逆差等为 由，援引《国际紧急经济权力法》征收全面关税，属于越权行 为，股市情绪一度被提振。但随后联邦上诉法院暂停一项阻止 特朗普征收全球关税的裁决，美国继续对外加征关税，美国与 欧盟、日本等其他国家的贸易谈判也在继续推进，仍然牵动市 场神经。特朗普也再度施压中国，表示谈判目前停滞状态，并 将对外的钢铁等关税提升至 50%。美联储 5 月利率会议纪要显 示经济面 ...

美国贸易代表格里尔 ：关税诉讼并未影响贸易谈判。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative, Tai, indicated that if tariff rulings "go in the opposite direction," there are other tools available, suggesting that tariff litigation has not harmed trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the readiness to utilize alternative measures if tariff decisions are unfavorable [1] - The assertion that tariff litigation has not negatively impacted trade negotiations highlights the resilience of ongoing discussions [1]

隔夜，现货黄金探底回升，亚市一度触及5月20日以来最低3245.88美元，随后展开反弹，盘中最高触及3330.92美元，收报于3317.59美元。今日欧市盘 中，黄金震荡下跌，目前在3297美元附近徘徊。 关税又有新变数！ 隔夜，美股三大股指集体高涨，截至收盘，道指涨0.28%，报42215.73点；纳指涨0.39%，报19175.87点；标普500指数涨0.40%，报5912.17点。 本月迄今，标普500指数累计上涨5.7%，道指上涨3.5%，纳斯达克指数飙升9.5%。 消息面上，不到24小时，美国国际贸易法院的裁定就被暂缓执行了。 白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗证实，"B计划"将先后动用1974年《贸易法》第122条（对严重贸易失衡国家征收临时关税）；同法案第301条（针对不公平贸易行为 征税）；乃至1930年《斯姆特-霍利关税法》（对歧视美国的国家加征关税）。 特朗普规定的7月9日关税最后期限临近，到目前为止仅与英国达成了象征性的协议。 接下来，市场要面对两种可能，一种是，协议意外突破 → 贸易谈判氛围短暂缓和；另一种是，无果僵局加剧 → "B计划"正式启动，关税威胁规模与范围 将急剧升级。 美国联邦巡回上诉法院 ...

欧洲央行管委帕内塔：贸易谈判的结果尚不确定，但对欧洲经济的影响必将十分重大。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the non - ferrous metals market is complex, affected by factors such as trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory changes. Each metal has its own unique price trends and influencing factors [1][3][4][5][6][8][10][12][14]. - For copper, although there is support from supply tightness, attention should be paid to the risk of economic slowdown in the medium - term. For aluminum, low inventory supports prices, but the market atmosphere is not optimistic. For lead, the cost support may weaken if scrap prices fall further. For zinc, there is a risk of price decline as inventory accumulates. For tin, the supply is expected to turn looser, and demand is dragging down prices. For nickel, macro uncertainty is high, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short. For lithium carbonate, prices may continue to decline without supply disruptions. For alumina, it is recommended to short at high prices. For stainless steel, the market may continue to decline weakly [1][3][4][5][6][8][10][12][14]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose slightly by 0.01% to $9567/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 77850 yuan/ton. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 77200 - 78400 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9450 - 9650 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1925 to 152375 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 3.2 million tons. The social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly [1]. - Market situation: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the short - term supply disruptions support copper prices. However, pay attention to the risk of economic slowdown in the medium - term [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.59% to $2450/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20110 yuan/ton. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2430 - 2480 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 1.2 million hands to 52.6 million hands, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 5.2 million tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased [3]. - Market situation: Low inventory supports aluminum prices, but the market atmosphere is not optimistic, and the trade situation is volatile [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 0.26% to 16745 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1987.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased to 4.57 million tons [4]. - Market situation: The production of recycled lead enterprises is decreasing, and the cost support may weaken if scrap prices fall further [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 1.11% to 22407 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2716.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.50 million tons, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium - term [5]. - Market situation: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and there is a risk of price decline as inventory accumulates [5]. Tin - Price: Tin prices continued to fall due to the expectation of mine restart. The reference range for domestic main contract is 240000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is 29000 - 32000 dollars/ton [6][7]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14 to 7984 tons, and LME inventory increased by 20 to 2680 tons [7]. - Market situation: The supply is expected to turn looser, and demand is weak, dragging down prices [6][7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices rebounded significantly. The reference range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. - Market situation: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak. Macro uncertainty is high, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index fell 1.62% to 60737 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed 2.52% lower at 58860 yuan. The reference range for GC lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 58000 - 59800 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 0.2% to 131571 tons [10]. - Market situation: The supply clearance is slow, and prices may continue to decline without supply disruptions [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 1% to 2945 yuan/ton. The reference range for domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.33 to 14.02 million tons [12]. - Market situation: The alumina production capacity is in excess, and it is recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to changes in bauxite prices [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12680 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The 304 stainless - steel market may continue to decline weakly in the short - term [14]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased by 0.85% to 111.77 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14]. - Market situation: The spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a difficult situation of "the lower the price, the harder to sell" [14].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-30 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 美国上诉法院暂缓了执行贸易法院命令，特朗普关税政策继续 执行，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数走低。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国至 5 月 24 日当周初请失业金人数 24 万人 综 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，主要受到特朗普对等关税被贸易法院 阻止后又被最高法院恢复的事件扰动，市场避险情绪先降后升。 美国政府目前仍在与不同国家进行贸易谈判。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 2660 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 美关税政策被叫停对于债市的影响主要集中在情绪层面。国债 期货估值基本合理，短线存在做多机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 首批收购存量商品房专项债落地 本周五大品种去库表现尚可，螺纹产量下降带动降库加快。卷 板需求维持韧性，环比有所回升，钢价也有所反弹。但需求走 弱预期仍难证伪，双焦表现弱势，预计钢价反弹空间有限。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚计划在 2030 年前将 B30 生物燃料用于运输行业 扫描二维 ...

白宫新闻秘书Leavitt：美国将继续推进贸易谈判。 ...

白宫新闻秘书莱维特：美国将继续推进贸易谈判。 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔、张云杰 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 关云杰 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 特朗普正在为前期的"一意孤行"付出代价。 百日新政之后，贸易谈判不顺利，俄乌和谈频繁打脸，美债压力居高不下，今天美国国际 贸易法院再来"背刺"一刀，要求撤销滥用《国际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）而落地的关税。对此，我们回答几个问题： 效力如何？ 法律判决的规格不低。 美国国际贸易法院属于美国联邦法院，法官需要总统任命、国会通过。该法院依据美国宪法第三条设立，位于纽约 市，具有全国范围的管辖权。主要审理关税、进口税、贸易壁垒等纠纷，并审查与贸易法规相关的行政决定。 上升到宪法和分权的高度。 用MAGA擅长的宏观叙事和"国本"问题反制特朗普，确实稳准狠：税收权力归国会，这是西方民主国家的重要 制度基础之一；总统在贸易关税上"独断"的权力过大，威胁到美国分权的传统。 其实今年美国国会已经有所动作。4月参议院提出两党法案《2025贸易审查法案》，旨在限制总统单方面征收关税的权力，但由于共和党 ...