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7月16日国际白银晚盘行情预测
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-16 11:34
【要闻聚焦】 周三(7月16日)国际白银价格在亚洲交易中重新获得积极的动力,收复了部分前一日的跌幅。在围绕 美国总统特朗普贸易关税的持续不确定性中,投资者仍处于紧张状态。此外,对美联储(Fed)将维持 高利率的押注引发了新一轮的避险交易,推动避险资金流向大宗商品。 周二公布的6月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告显示,受进口商品价格飙升推动,美国总体通胀年率如预期骤 升至2.7%。市场专家警告,当前价格压力仅反映部分行业关税的初步影响,特朗普政府对多国加征关 税的全面效果尚未显现。这可能促使美联储官员要求更多时间评估关税对通胀的影响。 蒙特利尔银行资本市场部美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen表示,考虑到当前的关税环境,很难想象这份 CPI报告会促使美联储在9月前降息。报告公布后美国国债表现平淡,这一现象或许也说明了这一点。 在通常情况下,人们可能会认为这份报告会开启关于美联储降息的讨论。 可惜的是,8月1日即将实施的新一轮关税将使美联储暂时维持现状。接下来,今日将有多场美联储官员 讲话,投资者会密切关注其中是否有任何近期政策暗示——即便目前这类指引出现的可能性不大。 【白银技术面分析】 20:30 美国6月PPI ...
6月CPI彻底“摊牌” 美联储的通胀担忧成为现实!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-16 11:30
从咖啡、音响设备到家居用品,一系列商品价格上涨推动6月通胀升温,经济学家认为这证明特朗普政 府加征的对等关税成本正转嫁给消费者。 美国6月整体消费者价格指数(CPI)环比上涨0.3%,折合年率约3.5%,而5月涨幅仅为0.1%。 但她补充说,企业和家庭部门的强劲资产负债表可能有助于吸收冲击。"企业通过压缩利润率、消费者 维持支出的能力,或在一定程度上缓解关税冲击,"柯林斯强调,"因此其对劳动力市场和经济成长的负 面影响可能受限。" 特朗普在社交媒体宣称物价"很低",并再次呼吁美联储降息。事实上,6月消费者价格水平较特朗普第 二任期开始前的去年12月已上涨1.2%。 白宫新闻秘书卡莱维特称,剔除食品能源的核心通胀低于预期"证明特朗普总统正在稳定通胀"。 "家居、娱乐和服装等品类涨价表明关税效应正缓慢渗透,"Principal Asset Management全球首席策略师 西玛·沙阿(Seema Shah)写道,"美联储至少再观望几个月才是明智之举。" 经济学家表示,他们预计随着关税影响的滞后效应被企业传导,今夏通胀将加速。6月数据尤其暗示, 政策制定者可能更倾向于暂缓降息,直到获得更多信息。 虽然关税引发的价 ...
2025 年 6 月美国物价数据点评:通胀温和回升,美联储仍可观望
Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[8] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[8] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.3%, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[8] Core Goods and Services - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable increases in clothing and furniture prices, which rose by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared to May[12] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with declines of 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point drag on CPI[12] - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, saw a rebound, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points, although still in negative growth territory[14] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[17] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[17] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate rate cuts anticipated due to ongoing inflationary pressures[18]
美国国债收益率高位持稳,市场静待PPI数据验证关税传导效应
智通财经网· 2025-07-16 11:03
Group 1 - The US Treasury yields are fluctuating near a one-month high, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.48% and the 30-year yield above 5% following a recent increase of 5 basis points [1] - The recent inflation data indicates that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are gradually impacting prices, leading to a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now below 50% [1] - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is crucial for assessing the inflationary effects of tariffs, with expectations for a 0.3% month-on-month increase in overall PPI and a 0.2% increase in core PPI, both higher than the previous month's growth [4] Group 2 - The market is reassessing the impact of tariff policies, with analysts highlighting the need to monitor the PPI data for further evidence of tariffs driving inflation [4] - Despite better-than-expected consumer data, some product prices are showing signs of tariff transmission, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming Beige Book will provide insights into the current economic landscape, focusing on overall economic growth, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages [4]
贵金属日报-20250716
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 11:02
Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core View - Overnight, the US announced that the June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, in line with expectations, but the annual and monthly rates of core CPI were slightly lower than expected. After the data release, precious metals declined. The market believes the data is insufficient to change the Fed's wait - and - see stance. With room for negotiation on US tariff policies before the deadline, risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the US PPI data tonight [1] Industry - related Summaries Tariff - US Treasury Secretary signaled that there's no need to worry about the deadline for suspending additional tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation "is in good shape" [2] - EU Commission Vice - President will talk with the US Trade Representative [2] - Trump reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods exported to the US, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty - free and non - tariff barrier - free treatment. If goods are transshipped from Indonesia, tariffs will be combined with those of the country of origin [2] - US Commerce Secretary said the US doesn't levy tariffs on raw steel but only on finished steel [2] - Indian central bank governor is hopeful for a good trade agreement [2] Inflation - The US June overall CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations; the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, falling short of the expected 3% but up slightly from last month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the market - expected 0.3% [2] - Interest rate futures show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month is very small, but the possibility of a 25 - basis - point cut in September is high [2] - The "Fed whisperer" said the CPI report won't change the Fed's policy direction [2] - Trump said consumer prices are low and the Fed should immediately cut the federal funds rate by 3 percentage points [2] - Fed's Collins expects the core inflation rate to remain at about 3% by the end of the year, and the Fed should be actively patient [2]
避险情绪支撑白银上涨 市场聚焦晚间PPI
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-16 10:52
Group 1 - Silver prices rebounded on July 16, reaching a high of $38.04 per ounce, driven by heightened market concerns over U.S. President Trump's escalating tariff policies and increased risk aversion [1] - The U.S. June CPI data showed a 0.3% month-on-month increase, the largest in five months, with core CPI rising to 2.9% year-on-year, raising concerns about tariffs pushing inflation higher and potentially extending the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy [2] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. PPI data, which will serve as a leading indicator for inflation trends and directly impact the future movement of gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Silver is experiencing an upward trend, with the day's highest price at $38.04, and the market is looking at resistance levels between $39.22 and $39.32, while support levels are between $36.52 and $36.62 [3]
通胀增强金银承压!金盛贵金属教你如何应对市场波动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 10:26
近期贵金属市场迎来剧烈震荡,黄金网特约分析专家董镇元分析道,"昨日黄金市场早盘小幅高开在3344.1的位置后行情先回补缺口给出3341.1的 位置后行情强势拉升,日线最高触及到了3366.4的位置后行情冲高回落,美盘时段受到基本面美国CPI影响黄金强势回落,日线最低给到了3320的 位置后行情整理,日线最终收线在了3324.8的位置后日线以一根上影线很长的大阴线收线,而这样的形态收尾后,今日的行情延续空,点位上, 昨日3363的空减仓后止损跟进在3355持有,今日3340空保守3342空止损3346.下方目标看3328和3320,跌破看3313和3308-3302。" 据智通财经 7 月 15 日报道,美国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%,创 2 月以来新高,核心 CPI 同比涨幅达 2.9%。受此影响,7 月 16 日国内黄金 9995 价 格下跌 0.42% 至 774.92 元 / 克,国际黄金期货微涨 0.01% 至 3337.1 美元 / 盎司,伦敦银现同步下跌 0.05%。这种 "通胀回升 + 金银承压" 的市场 格局,正考验着投资者的风险应对能力。 这种复杂的市场环境下,传统投资策略面临严峻 ...
Vatee外汇:通胀数据靴子落地后,黄金为何仍承压?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 10:15
7月16日周三,黄金市场延续了周二的疲软态势,现货金回落至每盎司3327美元附近,较前一交易日下 跌0.5%,期金也录得0.7%的跌幅。表面上看,美国6月CPI数据符合市场预期,并未带来显著超预期的 通胀惊喜,按理说应对金价构成支撑。然而,黄金走势的转弱,背后隐藏着更复杂的逻辑组合,尤其与 市场对关税政策、美联储路径以及避险需求之间微妙关系的重构密切相关。 尽管CPI环比上涨0.3%,同比仍维持在2.7%的水平,通胀并未"失控",但这已经是近半年以来最强的一 次月度增长,市场对通胀再度抬头的担忧开始升温。同时,特朗普最新在社交平台上发文,再次强调希 望美联储降息,称"消费者物价很低,应该降息",这无疑向市场施加了一种政策预期的暗示。然而,目 前的物价路径并不完全支持这种激进降息的诉求,因此市场定价并未明确转向。 市场对于特朗普可能进一步加征关税的预期正在升温。他提出对来自欧盟和墨西哥的商品征收高达30% 的关税,给投资者传递出一个矛盾信号:一方面关税可能推动输入型通胀,增加物价压力;另一方面, 美联储如果对此作出反应而非预判,则可能迟滞降息进程。因此,黄金作为对冲政策不确定性的工具, 在预期分歧中一时失去了明 ...
DLSM:纳指短暂回光再创新高?英伟达重启对华出货释放什么信号?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 10:09
在外部环境充满不确定的当下,这一轮上涨是否具备持续性,市场仍在观望。从基本面看,通胀数据正在转 变市场节奏。美国6月CPI环比上涨0.3%,为今年以来最大涨幅,尽管核心通胀相对温和,但广泛商品价格 上行的迹象已经浮现。尤其在特朗普最新宣布将对部分进口商品加征30%关税后,市场开始预期通胀压力可 能进一步上行,而这将对美联储的利率路径构成干扰。美联储主席鲍威尔已明确表示,将密切关注夏季物价 报告,以判断通胀是否正走出此前的回落趋势。 本周也是美国二季度财报季的起始。大型金融机构的业绩反映出分化趋势。花旗集团盈利超预期,股价上涨 3.7%,创下全球金融危机以来新高;而富国银行、贝莱德等则因盈利未及市场预期分别下跌5.5%和5.9%。 即便是摩根大通,在上调净利息收入预期的情况下也未能止住跌势。这说明,在估值处于历史高位的背景 下,即便轻微的不及预期也可能引发较大波动。 在科技股持续走强的背景下,纳斯达克指数在7月16日(周二)再度刷新纪录,五个交易日内第四次创出新 高,收于20677.80点。推动这一走势的核心因素,是英伟达宣布恢复向中国销售H20AI芯片的消息,引发芯 片板块整体上涨。英伟达当日股价大涨4%,带 ...
美媒:美国关税政策损害经济增长 消费者正感受到影响
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-07-16 10:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Trump administration's tariff policy has led to a significant increase in inflation in the U.S., with the Consumer Price Index rising by 2.7% year-on-year in June, up from 2.4% in May, marking the largest increase since February [1] - Prices for sensitive goods such as furniture, toys, and clothing have seen notable increases in June, indicating the direct impact of tariffs on consumer prices [1] - The data suggests that as some companies begin to pass on tariff costs to consumers, the public is starting to feel the effects of these tariffs [1] Group 2 - The broad nature of the U.S. tariff policy and its inconsistent implementation have disrupted markets, leading to increased uncertainty among businesses and consumers regarding the extent of future price increases [2] - Economists generally agree that tariffs will raise prices and harm economic growth, although there is disagreement on the magnitude of the impact and the timing of price increases [2]