| | 1、央行公告称，6月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3315亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量3315 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量3315亿元。Wind数据显示，当日2205亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1110亿元。 | | | 2、央行年中精准调控，资金面有望平稳跨季。近段时间以来，央行精准调控护航年中资金面。在5月降准释放长期流 | | | 动性10000亿元的基础上，6月以来，央行多次开展买断式逆回购净投放，以及加量续做MLF，为市场注入充裕的流动 | | | 性。展望7月跨月及半年度资金面，市场既抱有谨慎乐观态度，也存在一定担忧，主要在于财政因素对于资金面可能 | | | 会形成较大的干扰。 | | | 3、国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和 | | | 0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI均连续两个月位于扩张区间。 | | 宏观 | 4、财政部、国家税务总局、商务部发布公告，明确在2025年1月1日至2028年 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, government bond yields experienced a rise and subsequent decline, influenced by monetary policy adjustments and market conditions [1] Market Performance - In Q1, the bond market faced a correction due to three main factors: market adjustments to the "moderately loose" monetary policy expectations, tight funding conditions due to restrained monetary operations, and better-than-expected fundamental data from January to February [1] - By the end of June, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, showing changes of 22.35 basis points, 9.13 basis points, -2.90 basis points, and -6.25 basis points compared to December 31 [1] Policy Dynamics - The first half of the year saw the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. On May 8, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, leading to a corresponding 10 basis point drop in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - On May 15, the reserve requirement ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, with the average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions dropping from 6.6% to 6.2% [1] Bond Supply and Demand - As of June 27, the issuance of special bonds accelerated, with a total of 20,973 billion yuan in new special bonds issued, achieving 47% of the issuance target [1] - The refinancing of special replacement bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 18,031 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 90% [1] - The net issuance of government bonds was 33,802 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 50.7%, including the early issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds compared to the previous year [1] Strategy Outlook - The current funding conditions are loose, with the overnight DR dropping below the policy rate to 1.4%, but the bond market lacks strong upward momentum [1] - In the absence of further interest rate cuts, the bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with an optimistic forecast for the 10-year government bond yield's low point at 1.50% [1] - If interest rates are cut by 10-20 basis points, the low point could potentially drop to 1.3% - 1.4% [1]

Group 1 - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds increased by 1.5 basis points to 2.607%, with a cumulative rise of 10.7 basis points in June and 24.0 basis points in the first half of the year [1] - The 2-year German bond yield rose by 0.1 basis points to 1.861%, with a cumulative increase of 8.6 basis points in June and a decline of 22.1 basis points in the first half of the year [1] - The 30-year German bond yield increased by 3.0 basis points to 3.100%, with a cumulative rise of 12.0 basis points in June and 50.3 basis points in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between 2-year and 10-year German bonds increased by 1.328 basis points to +74.109 basis points, with a cumulative rise of 1.891 basis points in June and 46.103 basis points in the first half of the year [1] - The overall trading range for the 2/10-year yield spread was between +22.108 basis points and +97.406 basis points, with a peak reached in April [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Since mid - June this year, the bond market has been in a consolidation phase, approaching key levels. To break through downward, more impetus is needed, and one possible path is the restart of central bank's treasury bond trading, but it is expected to be postponed. The earliest restart may be around August [2][6][12]. - The central bank's purchase of treasury bonds can directly replenish liquidity, with simultaneous increases in claims on the government and government deposits. The short - term yield declined rapidly after the central bank started trading treasury bonds last August, opening up downward space for the long - term yield [8][20]. - When the central bank's short - term treasury bonds mature, it does not directly lead to a contraction in liquidity. Instead, it indirectly affects liquidity by reducing government deposits. The central bank is not expected to renew them urgently [24]. - Currently, the bond market is over - valued, and the long - term yield may be below the central bank's desirable range. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year treasury bonds around a yield of 1.65% when there are adjustments, and pay attention to the callback risk if the yield falls to 1.6% [2][34]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 When Will the Central Bank Restart Treasury Bond Trading? - Since mid - June, the bond market has been in a consolidation phase. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has been fluctuating around 1.65%, and the 30 - year around 1.85%. The 1 - year yield has decreased by 4bp from June 13 - 26. The 20 - year yield has dropped 3.5bp and remains a relative convex point on the curve. To break through downward, more impetus is needed, and the restart of treasury bond trading is one possible path [12]. 3.2 The Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading Directly Releases Liquidity - From August to December last year, the central bank announced a cumulative net purchase of 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds. By combining direct purchase and borrowing - and - selling methods, the estimated cumulative net purchase from August to December 2024 was close to 900 billion yuan. As of June 28 this year, the central bank has suspended treasury bond trading, and the cumulative maturity of treasury bonds from January to May was about 444 billion yuan [8][14]. - The central bank's purchase of treasury bonds can directly replenish liquidity. First, commercial banks buy treasury bonds, causing a decline in "other depository financial institution deposits" and an increase in government deposits. Then, the central bank buys from commercial banks in the secondary market, leading to an increase in claims on the government and a recovery of other depository financial institution deposits [20]. - After the central bank started trading treasury bonds in August last year, the short - term yield declined rapidly, and the 1 - year yield and DR007 inverted. In September, the short - term yield dropped by 12.2bp, followed by 10 - year yield declines of 12.7bp in November and 34.5bp in December [8][20]. 3.3 The Maturity of Central Bank - Held Treasury Bonds Does Not Directly Affect Liquidity and May Not Require Immediate Renewal - When treasury bonds held by the central bank mature, it leads to a reduction in both claims on the government and government deposits, resulting in a balance - sheet contraction. The maturity of short - term treasury bonds does not directly contract liquidity but indirectly affects it by reducing government deposits. Therefore, the central bank is not expected to renew them urgently [24]. 3.4 The Restart of Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading May Still Need to Wait - The central bank suspended treasury bond trading in January this year, mainly considering two points: the fiscal supply situation and whether the treasury bond yield is within the central bank's desirable range. The central bank will resume operations based on market supply - demand and yield changes [28]. - From the perspective of fiscal supply rhythm, the restart of central bank's treasury bond trading may be postponed. August and November are expected to be key points for liquidity disturbances in the second half of this year, with estimated net financing exceeding 900 billion and 800 billion respectively. Therefore, the earliest restart may be around August [29]. 3.5 More Marginal Changes Are Needed for Interest Rates to Break Through Downward - Currently, the bond market has a high winning probability but low odds, with over - valuation and long - term yields potentially below the central bank's desirable range. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fit value is significantly higher than the current 1.65% level. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year treasury bonds around a yield of 1.65% when there are adjustments, and pay attention to the callback risk if the yield falls to 1.6% [34].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.542 | 102.668 | 106.265 | 106.335 | 109.045 | 109.065 | 120.89 | 120.76 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.510 | 102.642 | 106.170 | 106.240 | 108.950 | 108.980 | 120.72 | 120.56 | | | 涨跌 | 0.032 | 0.026 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.085 | 0.170 | 0.200 ...

日本10年期国债收益率上涨1.5个基点，至1.445%。 日本10年国债收益率 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese government bond market, specifically the 10-year treasury bonds and their yield performance [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Resistance Levels for Bond Yields** - The 10-year treasury bond yield is facing strong resistance around 1.6%, with previous dips reaching approximately 1.57% [1][2]. - Current yields are fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.7%, indicating limited adjustment space [1][2]. - Investors are advised to consider buying when yields approach 1.65% but to be cautious of potential pullbacks near 1.6% [1][2]. 2. **Expectations for Resuming Bond Trading** - Market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading need to be postponed [3][4]. - The central bank requires two conditions to be met: an increase in bond supply and favorable yield conditions [4]. - There is no significant increase in bond supply expected in July, with only minor peaks anticipated in August and November [4]. 3. **Central Bank's Stance on Yield Movements** - The central bank is more inclined to accept rising yields rather than significant declines, which pose systemic risks [5]. - To avoid breaching critical levels like 1.6%, the central bank may wait for the market to adjust to higher levels before considering resumption of trading [5]. 4. **Liquidity Management and Central Bank Operations** - The notion of "liquidity withdrawal" when treasury bonds mature is inaccurate; central bank purchases actually inject liquidity into the system [6][7]. - The process of purchasing bonds involves a two-step operation that ultimately increases liquidity, although maturity payments do not directly affect base currency and liquidity [7]. 5. **Interest Rate Cut Potential** - The central bank's capacity for interest rate cuts this year is limited, with a potential cut of about 10 basis points expected around late Q3 or early Q4 [8]. - The timing of any cuts will depend on external conditions, with the focus on stabilizing growth in response to economic pressures [8]. 6. **Current Market Liquidity Conditions** - The market is experiencing marginal tightening of liquidity, with the central bank maintaining a relatively loose stance but with limits [9][10]. - The seven-day repo rate is around 1.5%, and the overnight repo rate is approximately 1.4%, indicating controlled liquidity to prevent fund misallocation [9][10]. 7. **Impact of Interbank Leverage on Market Rates** - High interbank leverage is currently observed, with a 0.3% increase in leverage for every 10 basis points recovery in yields [12]. - The current high leverage levels make further increases challenging without a drop in short-term rates [12]. 8. **Future Market Outlook** - The bond market is expected to face strong resistance at the 1.6% level, with significant attention needed on the U.S.-China trade tensions and economic fundamentals [13]. - Economic pressures in Q3, particularly in consumption and exports, could lead to a decline in bond yields if conditions worsen [13]. Other Important Insights - The central bank's preference for currency depreciation over appreciation indicates a strategic approach to managing economic stability [5]. - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring external factors, such as trade relations and economic indicators, which could significantly impact the bond market dynamics [13].

Group 1 - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada closed down 0.22% at 26,692.32 points, with a weekly increase of 0.73%, indicating an overall M-shaped trend [1] - The small-cap index fell by 1.00% to 896.97 points, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.99% [1] - On Friday, June 27, the yield on Canada's 10-year benchmark government bond decreased by 0.98 basis points to 3.307%, with a weekly increase of 0.4 basis points [1] Group 2 - The yield on the two-year Canadian government bond dropped by 2.6 basis points to 2.600%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4.5 basis points [1] - The five-year Canadian government bond yield fell by 3.4 basis points to 2.852%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4.2 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 3.52 basis points, reaching 4.2769% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased by a total of 9.83 basis points this week, trading within the range of 4.4028%-4.2378% [1] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 2.86 basis points, now at 3.7480% [1] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield has seen a cumulative decline of 15.97 basis points this week, fluctuating between 3.9289%-3.7071% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in German government bond yields, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.3 basis points to 2.592% and a cumulative increase of 7.5 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year German bond yield increased by 3.4 basis points to 1.860%, with a weekly cumulative rise of 1.0 basis point, showing a W-shaped trend [1] - The 30-year German bond yield remained relatively stable at 3.070%, with a cumulative increase of 9.8 basis points for the week [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year German bond yield spread decreased by 1.354 basis points to +72.781 basis points, with a weekly cumulative increase of 6.261 basis points [1]