Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black series futures, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The views on these commodities are as follows: - Iron ore: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal: All are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9][13][16]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures contract I2601 was 772.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.46%. The import and domestic spot prices mostly increased. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [6]. - **News**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar contract RB2510, the closing price was 3,121 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2510, the closing price was 3,375 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.44%. Spot prices in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also varied [9]. - **News**: On August 21, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed that the production of rebar decreased by 5.8 tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased by 9.65 tons. In July 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production year - on - year [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed small changes. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased, and the manganese ore price also decreased slightly. The price spreads had different changes [13]. - **News**: On August 21, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon in various regions decreased, and the prices of silicomanganese also decreased. The export and import data of silicomanganese in July 2025 were also provided [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal contract JM2601 was 1147 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan or 1.3%. The closing price of coke contract J2601 was 1664 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan or 0.8%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads changed [16]. - **News**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of different log contracts showed small fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were stable [20]. - **News**: In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].

Group 1 - Walmart warns that U.S. tariffs are increasing its operating costs, with the impact expected to continue into Q3 and Q4 [1][4] - Despite an influx of customers seeking affordable products, Walmart's profit margins are under pressure, with Q2 revenue growth of 4.8% to $177.4 billion, but operating profit down 8.2% to $7.3 billion [1][5] - The company's stock fell 4.5%, marking its largest single-day decline in over four months [1] Group 2 - The cost pressure from tariffs is increasing weekly, with about one-third of Walmart's U.S. goods relying on imports from countries like China, Mexico, Vietnam, and India [4] - The same-store inflation rate rose 1.1% year-over-year in Q2, doubling from the previous quarter, but remains below the overall U.S. inflation rate [5] - Walmart has indicated the need to raise prices on certain items to offset tariff costs, which has drawn criticism from President Trump, who argues that tariffs do not lead to inflation [5]

Group 1 - Major U.S. retailers, including Walmart and Home Depot, express optimism about consumer resilience despite potential challenges from rising prices due to tariffs [1][2] - Walmart raised its full-year performance expectations based on strong sales momentum, while Home Depot reported that customer spending remains "very healthy" [1] - Target's sales are still declining year-over-year, but the performance is better than expected, indicating a mixed retail environment [1] Group 2 - Retailers are facing increased costs as new inventory is subject to higher tariffs, which may lead to price increases in the latter half of the year [2][3] - The impact of price increases is uncertain, as retailers have different strategies for passing on costs to consumers [2] - Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, seeking value through second-hand stores and private label products, indicating a shift in spending behavior [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that inflation will accelerate in the second half of the year as retailers deplete pre-tariff inventory and pass on more costs to consumers [3][4] - The holiday shopping season is expected to be subdued due to rising essential goods prices, which will limit disposable income for budget-sensitive consumers [3]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's business activity growth accelerated in August, with the composite PMI rising to 51.1, up from 50.9 in July, marking the highest level since May 2024 and exceeding the expected value of 50.7 [1] - The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone increased to 50.5, the first return to expansion territory in three years, with the output sub-index reaching 52.3, the fastest growth in nearly three and a half years [1] - The services PMI slightly decreased to 50.7, indicating a slight slowdown in expansion [1] Group 2 - Germany's private sector activity improved slightly in August, primarily supported by better-than-expected manufacturing performance, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.9, the highest level since June 2022 [2] - New factory orders in Germany saw significant growth, although export sales experienced a slight decline for the first time in five months [2] - The services PMI in Germany fell to 50.1, reflecting a small decline in new business volume and indicating stagnation in growth momentum [2] Group 3 - France's overall business activity remained stable in August, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.9, the highest level since January 2023, despite challenges from weakened international competitiveness and trade environment issues [2] - The services PMI in France improved to 49.7, the highest level in a year, indicating a narrowing decline in output and a slowdown in the contraction of new business [3] - Employment in the French services sector showed improvement, with companies increasing both permanent and temporary hiring [3] Group 4 - Moody's analysts believe that while tariffs may weigh on the Eurozone economy, they are not sufficient to derail it [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of tariffs on Asian exports and the overall economic growth in the region, particularly focusing on the effects of U.S.-China trade relations and the performance of various markets including India, Japan, and China [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Asian Export Performance**: Asian exports have shown limited improvement after a brief rebound, with exports to the U.S. stagnating and non-tech sector exports fluctuating within a narrow range, indicating significant impacts from global economic slowdown [1][2][3]. 2. **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have had a notable negative effect on both Asian and U.S. economic growth, with U.S. GDP growth expected to slow from 2% in Q2 to 1% in Q4 of 2025, while global growth is projected to decline from 3.9% to 3.5% [2][9]. 3. **Capital Expenditure Stagnation**: U.S. capital expenditures have stagnated, with capital goods imports showing zero growth, which poses challenges for Asian economies, particularly in tech and non-tech sectors [5][9]. 4. **India-U.S. Trade Tensions**: Trade tensions between India and the U.S. may lead to a reduction in Indian exports to the U.S., but the overall impact is deemed manageable, with Indian corporate revenue expected to improve by Q3 2025 due to government policy actions [6][7][25]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: Recent market volatility suggests a significant directional change, with high valuations and risks of downturns in both U.S. and Chinese markets. Financial stocks have outperformed hardware companies, while AI-driven software firms have shown better performance [8][9]. 6. **China's Market Performance**: The onshore Chinese market has outperformed offshore markets, driven by rising long-term bond yields and positive liquidity indicators, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching its highest level since 2015 [12][13][14]. 7. **Japan's Market Outlook**: Japan's stock market has rebounded strongly but may be overbought, with potential short-term correction risks. Long-term factors supporting the market include U.S. tax reforms and political changes in Japan [18][19]. 8. **Sector Performance in Japan**: Attractive sectors in Japan include construction software, information communication, real estate, and utilities, while the automotive sector faces uncertainties due to trade policies [19][20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **CPI and Deflationary Pressures**: Deflationary pressures from China are spreading across the region, contributing to downward pressure on CPI, which has remained below central bank targets [21][22]. 2. **Investment Strategy in A-shares**: Increasing positions in A-shares can effectively reduce portfolio risk due to their low correlation with global markets, especially during periods of significant volatility [16]. 3. **Monitoring Indicators for China**: Investors should focus on financing balance ratios, government bond yields, and upcoming policy events to assess the sustainability of the Chinese market [15]. 4. **Political Landscape in Japan**: The political situation in Japan remains uncertain, with potential leadership changes that could impact economic policies and market dynamics [27][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and market dynamics in Asia.

Group 1 - Eurozone's composite PMI for August rose to 51.1, up from 50.9 in July, marking the highest level since May 2024 and exceeding the expected value of 50.7 [1] - Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone increased to 50.5, the first return to expansion territory in three years, with the output sub-index reaching 52.3, the fastest growth in nearly three and a half years [1] - Service sector PMI slightly decreased to 50.7, indicating a slight slowdown in expansion [1] Group 2 - Germany's manufacturing PMI for August improved to 49.9, up from 49.1 in July, indicating a gradual approach to stability, supported by a significant rise in new factory orders [2] - New orders in Germany's manufacturing sector grew at the fastest pace since March 2022, although export sales saw a slight decline for the first time in five months [2] - Germany's service sector PMI fell to 50.1, reflecting a small decline in new business volume after a recent increase, indicating stagnation in growth momentum [2] Group 3 - France's manufacturing PMI for August rose to 49.9, significantly up from 48.2 in July, marking the highest level since January 2023, despite challenges from weakened international competitiveness and trade environment issues [2] - France's service sector PMI improved to 49.7, the highest level in a year, showing a reduction in the rate of output decline and a slowdown in the contraction of new business [3] - The employment situation in France's service sector showed improvement, with companies increasing both permanent and temporary hiring, marking the strongest employment growth since April 2024 [3] Group 4 - ECB President Lagarde noted that recent trade agreements have alleviated some global uncertainties, with a strong labor market and domestic demand being key drivers of Eurozone growth [3] - Moody's analysts believe that while tariffs may weigh on the Eurozone economy, they are not sufficient to derail it [4]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's Q2 earnings fell short of expectations due to increased insurance claims and one-time costs, despite a revenue increase of 4.8% year-over-year to $177.4 billion, which exceeded market forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue rose 4.8% to $177.4 billion, surpassing market expectations [1] - Non-GAAP EPS was $0.68, below market expectations due to increased insurance claims [1] - Operating profit decreased by 8.2% due to special legal and restructuring costs, while adjusted operating profit grew by 0.4% due to strong sales performance [1] - Walmart raised its full-year sales guidance to a growth of 3.75% to 4.75%, up from a previous forecast of 3% to 4% [1] Business Segments and Growth Drivers - Global e-commerce sales increased by 25%, driven by in-store pickup and delivery services [2] - Advertising revenue grew by 46%, with Walmart Connect in the U.S. increasing by 31% [2] - Membership and other profits rose by 5.4%, with global membership profits up by 15.3% [2] - Same-store sales at Sam's Club, excluding fuel, grew by 5.9%, exceeding analyst expectations of 5.2% [2] Pricing and Cost Management - Walmart noted that tariff costs are expected to rise in the second half of the year, although the impact has been limited so far, with U.S. goods prices only increasing by 1% this quarter [3] - The company has slightly raised prices on some items while absorbing costs on others, managing price adjustments on a per-item basis [3][5] - Walmart's strategy includes stocking up on inventory to prepare for the second half of the fiscal year and the holiday season, with inventory growth of 2.2% in the U.S. [5] Consumer Behavior and Market Position - Despite economic pressures, Walmart has not observed significant changes in consumer spending, with private label sales remaining stable compared to last year [4] - The company aims to expand market share by leveraging its global supply chain for efficient procurement and favorable supplier agreements [6] - Q2 same-store sales in the U.S. grew by 4.6%, surpassing market expectations of 4.1%, with transaction numbers increasing by 1.5% and average transaction amounts rising by 3.1% [6] Challenges and Outlook - Increased claims and restructuring costs have impacted profitability, with rising costs associated with general liability and workers' compensation claims [7] - The retail environment remains stable, supported by a relatively stable job market and promotional activities [7] - Competitors like Home Depot and Target have reported optimistic demand forecasts, indicating a mixed retail landscape [7]

Group 1 - Investors are focusing on the impacts of tariffs, the effectiveness of China's antitrust policies, US-India trade tensions, and whether the Bank of Japan is lagging behind [1] - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that investors are more optimistic about the macro outlook for the US and Asia compared to the bank's baseline scenario [1] Group 2 - The current tariff on Asian goods has increased significantly to 25% from 5% at the beginning of the year, with expectations of a notable slowdown in exports by the second half of 2025 [2] - Despite the tariff increases, investors believe that growth in the US and Asia will not show significant deceleration in the latter half of 2025 [2][4] - Non-tech exports from Asia have stabilized after a decline in April and May, with a focus on non-tech exports due to tech products being largely exempt from tariffs [2][5] Group 3 - Exporters have not borne much of the tariff burden, as the prices of goods imported from Asia to the US remain higher than levels seen in February 2025 [7] - The effective tariff rate on Asian imports has risen by 20 percentage points, yet the prices of these goods are only slightly lower than in February 2025 [10] Group 4 - Capital expenditure momentum in Asia appears to be stabilizing, with evidence suggesting a slowdown in capital goods imports since May 2025 [12] - South Korea has committed $350 billion in investments, with actual equity commitments expected to be lower than $17.5 billion, while Japan has announced $550 billion in loans and guarantees, with only 12% expected to be actual investments [13] Group 5 - The increase in tariffs is expected to enhance the transmission of price increases to core goods, with indications that tariffs are driving prices higher in categories such as automobiles and household goods [16] - The US core PCE is projected to peak at 0.39% monthly by August 2025, with core CPI expected to reach a higher peak of 0.45% [16] Group 6 - Asian central banks are currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations of further rate cuts as trade policy uncertainties decrease [17] - The report anticipates additional rate cuts in the remaining months of 2025 and into 2026 across various Asian central banks [17] Group 7 - The effectiveness of China's antitrust efforts faces challenges, with recent signals from policymakers indicating potential follow-up actions to address deflationary pressures [18] - The current macroeconomic environment is less favorable for addressing deflation compared to previous years, with a need for a rebalancing from investment to consumption [18][24] Group 8 - The impact of tariffs on India's growth is expected to be mitigated, with only 2% of India's GDP affected by direct and indirect channels from tariffs [19] - The Indian government estimates that only 55% of its exports to the US will be impacted by tariffs, allowing for some exemptions [19] Group 9 - There is a growing divergence between macroeconomic indicators and micro-level data in India, with corporate revenue growth slowing while nominal GDP growth remains high [21] - Factors such as recent monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India are expected to support economic re-inflation in the coming quarters [21] Group 10 - The Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance due to moderate demand-side inflation pressures, with expectations of no rate hikes in the near term [22] - The Japanese economy is still recovering from the pandemic, with private consumption and capital expenditure below pre-COVID levels [22] Group 11 - Asian investors are reducing net purchases of US stocks, indicating a shift in focus towards European equities and increased foreign exchange hedging on US positions [23] - The ongoing concerns about the US macro outlook are prompting Asian investors to reconsider their asset allocations [23]

据报道，欧盟与美国正式敲定上月达成的框架性贸易协议，美国将对大多数欧盟进口商品征收15%的关 税，包括汽车、药品等。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]