本周早些时候，一系列具有韧性的经济数据意外让市场担忧美联储降息能否持续。 9月25日公布的数据显示，截至9月20日当周，首次申请失业救济人数下降1.4万人至21.8万人，为7月中旬以来最低，也远低于市场预期的23.5 万人。 美联储 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 据央视新闻报道，美国经济分析局9月26日公布的数据显示，美国衡量通胀的指标——个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数8月份环比上升0.3%，同比 上涨2.7%；排除食品和能源价格影响后，核心PCE价格指数环比上升0.2%，同比上涨2.9%。 随着关键通胀数据平稳落地，美股在连跌三天后反弹，26日三大指数集体收涨。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.65%，报46,247.29点；标普500指 数涨0.59%，报6,643.70点；纳斯达克指数涨0.44%，报22,484.07点。 从一周表现来看，纳指和标普500指数分别下跌0.65%和0.31%，为过去四周首次周线下跌。道指本周下跌0.15%。"没有坏消息就是好消息" 此外，美国第二季度GDP终值年化环比增长3.8%，较此前的修正值3.3%大幅上调，创下近两年最快增速，上修主要得益于消费者支出的意外 强劲以及进口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. for August marks the first drop since April, reinforcing the rationale for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [2][5]. Group 1: PPI Data - The PPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, with July's data revised downwards. Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 2.6% [2]. - Excluding food and energy, the prices of goods rose by 0.3%, while service costs fell by 0.2%. The profit margins for wholesalers and retailers dropped by 1.7%, matching the largest decline since 2009 [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The decline in inflation expectations has led to an increase in U.S. stock index futures and bond prices, with market participants anticipating multiple interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 [6][8]. - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to reveal how much of the tariffs have been passed on to American households, with analysts predicting a significant monthly increase in core indicators excluding food and energy [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials are expected to lower interest rates in response to the rapid slowdown in the labor market, as indicated by recent employment data [6]. - The PPI report is closely monitored as some components are used to calculate the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [6].

【导读】 美国生产者价格指数意外下跌，自四月以来首次下降。这些数据进一步充实了美联储降息的理由 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美国最新出炉的PPI数据。 美国生产者价格意外下跌 为4月以来首次 美国8月批发通胀意外下降，为四个月来的首次下跌，进一步 充实 了美联储降息的理由。 9月10日晚间， 根据美国劳工统计局周三发布的报告，生产者价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.1%，而7月的数据被下修。同比 来看，PPI上涨2.6%。 报告显示，尽管特朗普的关税带来了更高成本，但企业上月仍避免了过度提价。虽然这一回落紧随7月的大幅上涨，但许多 公司担心大幅加价会在经济不确定性影响消费决策之际吓跑客户。 数据公布后，美国股指期货和国债价格均走高。 剔除食品和能源的商品价格上涨0.3%；服务成本下降0.2%。在服务业中，批发商和零售商的利润率下降1.7%，与2009年 以来的最大跌幅持平。今年以来利润率月度波动剧烈，凸显出贸易政策对价格和需求影响的不确定性。 企业在多大程度上把关税负担转嫁给消费者，将成为决定今年利率走向的关键。虽然美联储官员普遍预计进口关税将在 2025年余下时间推高通胀，但他们仍未决定这是一次性调整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in inflation pressures in the U.S. as of July, alongside a significant increase in consumer spending, indicating a complex economic landscape ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting [3]. Inflation Pressure - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, a slowdown of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [4]. - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth accelerating to 2.9%, the highest level since February [4]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, was revised up to 0.4% in June and accelerated to 0.5% in July, marking the highest growth since March [5]. - The increase in spending was largely driven by durable goods purchases, which rose by 0.8%, particularly in automobiles, household furniture, and sporting goods [5]. Labor Market and Employment - Despite a low unemployment rate supporting consumption and wage growth, employers are hesitant to increase headcount due to rising operational costs from tariffs [5]. - Average monthly job growth over the past three months was reported at 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period last year [5]. Policy Outlook - The July PCE data is one of three key reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, alongside the August non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [7]. - Many economists on Wall Street expect inflation to rise further due to increasing business costs and reduced inventory, with retailers and automakers warning that tariffs are raising their costs, which may be passed on to consumers [7]. Federal Reserve Consensus - There is a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve towards a potential rate cut in September, although significant divisions remain regarding inflation concerns and labor market weaknesses [8]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September stands at 84%, consistent with the PCE data release [7]. Consumer Sentiment - The proportion of consumers finding it "hard to get a job" rose to the highest level in four and a half years as of August, indicating growing concerns about the labor market [9]. - Despite concerns about inflation spiraling, the current data suggests a potential for a rate cut in September, although uncertainties remain due to strong consumer and core inflation rates exceeding the Federal Reserve's target [9].

Core Inflation Pressure Escalates - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data has shown a rebound since April after hitting a low in March, indicating that tariffs from the Trump administration are slowly pushing up goods prices and driving inflation rates [3] - The overall PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in July, maintaining the same growth rate as June [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, may see a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, marking the highest level since February of this year, which is particularly significant as it is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [3] Impact of Tariffs on Specific Industries - The furniture industry is projected to face a 4.2% year-on-year increase in prices due to tariffs and supply chain bottlenecks, with companies like Ashley Furniture and Ethan Allen passing costs onto consumers [4] - The manufacturing sector is expanding at the fastest pace in over three years, contributing to ongoing inflationary pressures, with sales price indices reaching a three-year high [4] - Wells Fargo reports that price pressures related to tariffs are expanding from goods to services, predicting that the core PCE will peak slightly above 3% by the end of the year [4] Cost Burden Distribution - As of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of the costs from tariffs, while consumers took on 22%, and foreign exporters absorbed 14%. However, by October, it is expected that consumers will bear two-thirds of the cost increases, with foreign companies and U.S. businesses taking on 25% and 8%, respectively [5] Policy Outlook - At the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential for rate cuts in September, citing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [7] - Major banks, including Morgan Stanley and Société Générale, have adjusted their forecasts to anticipate rate cuts starting in September, with predictions of quarterly cuts continuing until the end of 2026 [7] - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 87%, with a 36% chance of a total reduction of 75 basis points this year [7] Political Influence on Monetary Policy - President Trump recently dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which is seen as an attempt to exert control over the Fed, potentially allowing Trump to influence key appointments within the Federal Reserve Board [8] - If successful, this could lead to a majority control over the board, impacting future monetary policy decisions and potentially easing the path for rate cuts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a small interest rate cut in September, influenced by rising inflation data and pressure from the White House, despite the current economic indicators not supporting a large-scale reduction [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in July, with the core CPI rising by 3.1%, indicating that inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2% [1]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed closely monitors, recorded a June value of 2.6%, up from 2.4% in May and 2.2% in April, justifying the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [2]. Employment Metrics - The unemployment rate in July was reported at 4.2%, unchanged for three consecutive months, and significantly lower than the peak of 14.8% in April 2020, suggesting a stable labor market [3]. Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. government is approaching a "technical default," with projections indicating that 30% of government revenue in fiscal year 2025 will be allocated to debt interest payments, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [4]. - The ongoing high-interest payments on national debt create a paradox with the Fed's high interest rates, leading to concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and potential market reactions [4]. Market Reactions - Since April, there has been a notable sell-off of ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting growing market anxiety over the U.S. debt repayment crisis and the sustainability of government revenue [4].