Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy is perceived to be approaching a neutral stance [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current policy is seen as nearing neutrality, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1]

Core Insights - The current interest rates are only slightly restrictive and may remain stable for some time [1] - The Federal Reserve is still some distance from achieving its inflation target, and official data may not fully reflect recent changes, including the recent rise in oil prices [1] - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with some suggesting as early as July and others indicating a wait until the fall [1] - Chairman Powell prefers to observe economic performance further before making any policy adjustments [1]

美联储哈玛克：美联储的政策具有适度的限制性。 ...

鲍曼（美联储副主席）支持最快7月降息，称就业市场风险超过通胀担忧，并暗示可能放松银行资本金要求。 古尔斯比（芝加哥联储主席）表示，若关税未推高通胀，美联储可能恢复降息。 黄金周一（6月23日）早盘高开后冲高3398附近受阻转跌，到欧盘前最低跌至3347附近，随后开始震荡上涨，欧盘上涨至3382附近后受阻回落下探3356，美 盘再次上涨，凌晨在33933/3394位置受阻后走跌，整体走震荡，日线收出一根带有上下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、中东局势 伊朗袭击美国驻卡塔尔基地，但未造成伤亡，也未封锁霍尔木兹海峡，市场风险溢价回落。 特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗达成全面停火，停火于美国东部时间24日零时开始，分两个12小时阶段执行，伊朗官方确认同意停火。 2、美联储政策 二、技术面 1、日线级别：周一，黄金于早盘及凌晨时段先后发起两次上攻，但均遭遇强劲抛压，呈现冲高回落态势，最终以阴线报收于日线图。从技术分析视角来 看，当前黄金价格上方的关键阻力位于3400-3405区域，该区域构成了短期上行的重要屏障。只要金价未能有效突破这一阻力区间，预计将持续维持震荡偏 弱的运行格局。 在支撑位方面，首先值得关注的是30日均线所处的 ...

Market Overview - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Specific Commodity Performance - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - There was a decrease in capital flow, primarily influenced by outflows from precious metals [1] - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to impact short-term asset pricing and market dynamics [1] Energy Sector Insights - Oil prices surged due to tensions in the Middle East and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories, with OPEC+ effectively executing production cuts [1] - Positive expectations for summer oil demand have led to increases in fuel and asphalt prices [1] Chemical Sector Trends - The chemical sector generally strengthened due to rising energy prices, with methanol and other products experiencing a rebound [1] - However, the recovery of downstream demand remains uncertain, indicating a market driven by trading rather than sustained growth [1] Agricultural Sector Analysis - The oilseed and oil sector showed a strong upward trend, supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, despite weak soybean exports [1] - Corn prices faced pressure due to import substitution and declining profitability, while the hog market experienced fluctuations amid seasonal consumption declines [1]

美联储古尔斯比：不会卷入有关美联储政策的党派纷争。(新浪财经) ...

截至6月23日亚盘早市，黄金现货价格跳空至3385.71开盘，随后回调至3364.78美元/盎司附近，跌幅0.11%，盘中一度因 美军空袭伊朗核设施跳涨近30美元，但避险情绪未能持续。白银市场呈现类似走势，伦敦银现价格回落至36.03美元/盎 司，较开盘下跌0.14%。 | 昨收 | 3368.52 | 最高 | 3398.02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3385.71 | | 3351.93 | | 买入 | 3364.78 | 卖出 | 3364.98 | 美军于6月21日动用B-2隐形轰炸机对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹等核设施发动空袭，投掷6枚钻地弹及30枚战斧导弹，伊朗随后 以导弹和无人机报复，但黄金价格仅短暂冲高后回调。 市场对地缘风险的"疲劳效应"显著，投资者更关注美联储政策路径及经济数据对黄金的中长期影响。尽管伊朗威胁封锁 霍尔木兹海峡可能推升油价，但布伦特原油仅微涨0.5%至78.3美元/桶，显示市场对短期能源供应中断的担忧有限。 一、地缘冲突与市场反应： 白银：日线级别仍处于35.50-36.50美元震荡区间，15分钟图在36.17美元（前高）附近遇阻，若 ...

尽管宏观情绪有所改善，但Hatzius警告称，美国对伊朗采取军事行动的风险仍是潜在威胁。虽然预测 市场显示爆发即时冲突的概率略有下降，但原油价格较6月初仍上涨约10美元/桶，折射出市场对局势升 级乃至霍尔木兹海峡中断的深层忧虑。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管地缘冲突频发且贸易环境动荡，美元近期的疲软表现仍令市场困惑。对此，高 盛在题为《失声之犬》(The Dog That Didn't Bark)的最新报告中指出，即便短期衰退忧虑缓解，周期性 利好因素仍不足以抵消美国经济面临的结构性阻力。 高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在6月21日的报告中阐释："我们认为，周期性顺风不足以抵消更长期的逆 风。"他特别指出，美元表现逊色的根源在于两大结构性挑战：一是估值仍处历史高位，二是吸引非对 冲资本流入为占GDP 4%的经常账户赤字融资的难度与日俱增。 该行外汇策略团队预计美元将延续跌势，尤其对欧元和日元等汇率可能进一步走弱。其他重要预判包 括：黄金价格将重启升势，英国短期利率有望下行。 关税趋稳难驱阴霾 虽然预期中的美国关税上调幅度趋于稳定为金融市场带来些许宽慰，但美元依旧萎靡不振。高盛预测 2025年美国实际关税税 ...

Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of SHFE zinc 2507 closed at 21,845 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.14% week-on-week. The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week due to the mixed macro situation and the fundamentals of increasing supply and weakening demand in the off - season, with signs of inventory accumulation and weakening spot premiums [3]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed officials' differences became public. In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the output from newly - put - into - operation smelters and the resumption of some overhauled smelters are expected to lead to an increase in production in June, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed. The zinc import window closed in June [3]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. The galvanizing开工 decreased, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season. The开工 of die - casting zinc alloys decreased, and the demand weakened with a slower shipment rhythm. The开工 of zinc oxide remained flat with weakening orders, but some zinc oxide enterprises are expected to resume production next week, and the开工 may increase slightly [3]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased, while the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease. With the Fed's stance, high production enthusiasm of smelters, expected increase in zinc ingot production, weakening demand in the off - season, and signs of inventory accumulation despite the low social inventory of zinc ingots, it is recommended to short SHFE zinc at high prices [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week. The spread between SHFE zinc 07 - 08 contracts weakened week - on - week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation changed little week - on - week. Due to weak downstream demand, the spot premium decreased [8][12][17]. 02 Fundamental Data - This week, the port inventory of zinc concentrates decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, and the raw material inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [20]. - In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the production in June is expected to increase, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed [23][24]. - In May, the net import of refined zinc was 2.53 million tons, with imports of 2.67 million tons and exports of 0.14 million tons [27]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. Traders replenished less inventory, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season [28][31][35]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased this week, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased, and the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease [37][38]. - Last week, the new - home sales in 10 key cities increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, while the second - hand home sales increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [44][45]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual performance of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual performance of the same period last year; from June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 38% year - on - year; and the domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decrease in June [49][51][54][59].

1.黄金建议反弹3375-3380区域做空，止损在3388，目标3360-3340. 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金4小时K线形态分析，当前多头动能阶段性占优，但上方3380-3385区域存在显著技术阻力。金价虽出现回调，但尚未有效击穿上升通道下沿，中长期 上行趋势结构保持完整。若中东地缘冲突加剧或国际贸易风险升级，可能触发技术性反弹修复行情。日线级别收出十字星形态，价格回踩布林带中轨支撑 位，整体维持震荡下行运行节奏。小时图级别呈现明显下跌特征，在未突破关键压力位前建议维持空头交易策略。短期阻力区间确认为3380-3385，下方支 撑区间位于3335-3330。下周操作翁富豪建议黄金价格反弹至3375-3380区域可考虑布局空单，需严格设置止损并控制仓位风险。 操作策略： 金价周五持稳于3368一线，但周线累计下跌1.8%。最新FOMC声明强化美联储谨慎立场，维持联邦基金利率4.25%-4.50%区间不变，但下调2025 ...