Core Viewpoint - China has implemented new regulations to upgrade export controls on rare earths and superhard materials, prompting a strong reaction from former President Trump, who announced a 100% tariff increase on Chinese goods starting November 1, raising the total tariff rate to 130% [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Trump's initial response to China's export controls was to threaten increased tariffs, indicating a strategy to pressure China into reversing its new regulations before the APEC summit [3][5]. - Following the threat, Trump shifted his tone, suggesting that the U.S. aims to help China, which reflects a change in strategy as the U.S. appears to be struggling under the pressure of China's actions [3][7]. - The U.S. has faced a series of challenges, including the addition of 23 Chinese high-tech companies to a restricted list and new export control rules, which have led to China's retaliatory measures [5][9]. Group 2: Rare Earths Market Dynamics - China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth production and 95% of refining capacity, making it a critical player in the supply chain for U.S. military and high-tech industries [9][11]. - The new regulations target key rare earth elements essential for U.S. defense systems and high-tech products, highlighting the vulnerability of U.S. supply chains [9][13]. - The U.S. military has warned that a disruption in rare earth supplies could severely impact production capabilities, with current inventories only sufficient for about three months [9][13]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The escalation of trade tensions and the imposition of tariffs could lead to significant disruptions for U.S. companies, particularly in the semiconductor and defense sectors, as they rely heavily on rare earth materials sourced from China [13][15]. - The U.S. has attempted to form alliances with other nations to counter China's dominance in rare earths, but these efforts have faced internal disagreements and challenges [11][19]. - The ongoing trade conflict suggests that the U.S. may need to reconsider its approach, as continued sanctions could lead to greater losses for American industries [19].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its macroeconomic influences, particularly in the context of the **US-China trade conflict**, **monetary policies in Japan and Europe**, and **US government shutdowns**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Surge**: Since 2025, gold prices have benefited from multiple factors, including the escalation of the US-China trade conflict, potential monetary easing in Japan, political instability in Europe, and the US government shutdown, leading to an investment return of approximately **50%** [1][4][5]. 2. **Global Fiscal Policies**: The global fiscal policy environment is characterized by a tendency towards easing rather than tightening, with post-pandemic fiscal expansion leading to increased inflationary pressures, thereby supporting commodity prices, including gold [1][6]. 3. **Supply Chain Restructuring**: The restructuring of global supply chains, triggered by the trade war, has resulted in significant changes in the financial system, causing the dollar index to weaken and gold to gain a premium as a safe-haven asset [1][9]. 4. **US Economic Demand Decline**: The US is experiencing a decline in economic demand, which is contributing to expectations of looser monetary policy and further driving up gold prices [1][10]. 5. **ETF Inflows and Private Purchases**: Increased inflows into ETFs and a rise in private sector purchases of gold bars have been significant drivers of gold price increases, reflecting market concerns over US monetary liquidity and trade uncertainties [2][12]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Divergence**: Recent market performance has shown a clear divergence, with gold prices rising sharply while risk assets like US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares have declined [3]. 2. **Political Instability in Europe**: Political instability in France and the potential for renewed monetary easing in Japan have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting gold prices [1][7]. 3. **US Government Shutdown Impact**: The US government shutdown highlights the fiscal disagreements between political parties, increasing market uncertainty and bolstering safe-haven assets like gold [1][8]. 4. **Long-term Risks**: While short-term factors such as trade conflicts and fiscal easing support gold prices, there are potential risks in 2026 if US demand stabilizes, which could negatively impact gold [1][11]. 5. **Technological Development**: The future trajectory of the US economy, particularly in terms of technological advancements, will be a key determinant of economic cycles and, consequently, gold prices [1][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the dynamics affecting the gold market and the broader economic implications.

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation in the US-China conflict highlights a shift in China's response strategy, moving from passive to assertive measures against US actions, particularly in the shipping and semiconductor industries [1][3]. Shipping Industry - The US plans to impose a port fee of $50 per ton on Chinese-operated and manufactured vessels, prompting China to retaliate with a fee of 400 RMB per ton on not only US-owned ships but also those with over 25% US capital ownership [1][3]. - China currently dominates the global shipping industry, holding seven out of the top ten container ports and over 53% of the global merchant shipbuilding market, while the US holds only 0.1% [3]. Semiconductor Industry - China's advancements in semiconductor technology include achieving a 95% yield rate for 28nm chips and achieving self-sufficiency in 5G RF chips, which strengthens its position against US companies like Qualcomm [5][7]. - The US's reliance on Chinese rare earth materials is critical, as these materials are essential for various high-tech products, including automobiles and military equipment [5][7]. Trade Dynamics - China's foreign trade dependency on the US has decreased, with shifts in agricultural imports towards countries like Russia, Spain, Brazil, and Argentina, while ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner [5][7]. - The nature of exports from China to the US has evolved from low-end to high-end products, such as DJI drones and high-performance cameras, which the US cannot produce at competitive prices [5][7]. Strategic Response - China has developed a comprehensive countermeasure system that integrates rare earths, technology, manufacturing, finance, military, and geopolitical strategies, allowing it to respond effectively to US actions [7]. - The shift from being a "rule taker" to a "rule maker" signifies China's growing confidence and capability in the global arena, making it increasingly difficult for the US to exert its influence [7].

【文/观察者网 熊超然】中美经贸关系原本看似处于风平浪静的"休战期"，近期又因美方的一系列错误 政策而再现波折。中方动用反制措施坚定捍卫国家利益后，美国总统特朗普竟故技重施，重启老一套的 关税讹诈，但这却让美股再遇"黑色星期五"，三大股指狂泻，华尔街哀鸿遍野。恐慌之下，美国人又开 始"装起了可怜"。 当地时间10月12日，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）在接受福克斯新闻台采访时对外宣 称，中方近期出台稀土新规之前并未提前告知，这种所谓的"权力攫取"（power grab，意为夺权）行为 令美方感到意外，且中方拒绝了美方的沟通尝试。 "我可以告诉你，我们并没有收到通知，而且我们从公开渠道得知这一消息，就迅速联系了中方，希望 进行电话沟通，"格里尔声称："但他们（中方）拒绝了。" 据报道，同一天，美国总统特朗普和副总统万斯也发表最新对华言论，多家美媒解读认为，特朗普的言 论较之前出现转变，似乎暗示他可能不会兑现加征关税的威胁，释放出愿与中国达成协议、平息紧张局 势的信号。 当地时间10月12日，香港《南华早报》援引的分析人士也认为，特朗普素有发出强硬言论后退缩的惯 例，因而被贴上了"TA ...

中国在这场博弈中，无疑展现出了更高的战略智慧。前美国国家安全委员会中国事务主任莉萨·托宾的话道出了深意："我们还在玩普通象棋，而中国 已进入高阶棋局。"不仅如此，中国发布的一系列出口管制措施，是对美国不断加码的技术限制和关税威胁的精准回应。在这一逻辑下，中方不仅展 示了自己的"卡脖子"能力，同时也释放出对话的意愿。 分析人士指出，这种反制行动犹如一场"力量展示"，不仅强调了中国的强势地位，还警示其他国家不要为了迎合美国而损害自身利益。对于那些在美 中间徘徊的国家来说，如何选择将决定他们在未来国际舞台上的立足点与生存空间。 在当今全球化的经济环境中，中美贸易问题早已超越单纯的经济竞争，而演变为一场涉及地缘政治和科技安全的复杂博弈。特定的商品，如稀土、锂 电池、以及药物原料等，正成为双方交锋的核心武器。在这场博弈中，中国采取的反制措施不仅令特朗普政府措手不及，还引发了美国股市的剧烈动 荡，进一步展示了中方在供应链中的话语权。 自特朗普执政以来，他对中国的政策一直以"关税战"为主线，企图通过提高关税来削弱中国的经济实力。然而，随着中国逐步实施出口管制，包括稀 土及其他关键原材料，特朗普却惊愕地发现自己被困在了"卡脖 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for different asset classes, there are short - term investment suggestions: - **Equity Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Commodity Categories**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, cautious and short - term cautiously go long [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautiously go long [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, intensifying short - term Sino - US game. The US dollar index and RMB exchange rate weaken, global financial markets fluctuate violently, and global risk appetite significantly cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but short - term Sino - US game intensifies, and domestic risk appetite cools significantly. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced, increasing policy support [3][4]. - **Market Trading Logic**: Focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US game. Short - term macro upward drive weakens; follow - up attention on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro Situation**: Overseas, Sino - US game intensifies, dollar and RMB weaken, global risk appetite cools, and precious metals strengthen. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, risk appetite cools, and multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Equity index has short - term high - level adjustment, treasury bonds oscillate in the short - term, black metals oscillate, non - ferrous metals adjust, energy and chemicals oscillate, and precious metals are strong - side oscillating at high levels. All are with cautious operation suggestions [3]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stock market drops significantly due to the drag of energy metals, semiconductors, and batteries. Fundamentally, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, and risk appetite cools. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. After the weekend, Sino - US trade conflict escalated, and market risk - aversion increased. Fundamentally, demand is weak, inventory increases by 127000 tons, and supply is expected to remain high. The steel market may be weak in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Iron ore demand is strong, but due to the weakening steel market and Sino - US trade conflict, the negative feedback may come earlier. It is recommended to short at high prices next week [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Last Friday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is okay, but supply increases in some areas. Silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Not mentioned in the provided content. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Tariff concerns resurfaced last Friday night. US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increases. Some major copper mines have supply disruptions, but most are expected to resume production [8]. - **Aluminum**: Last Friday, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, following copper. During the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory accumulated by 200000 tons, supply is rigid, and demand weakens marginally [9][10]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight globally, but demand improvement is limited, and high prices suppress consumption. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production increases, inventory decreases slightly. Sino - US trade conflict and 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation may bring pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly. The 2511 contract faces warehouse receipt digestion pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Production increases, inventory is high, and warehouse receipt quantity increases. Supply is high, demand is weak, and prices depend on the implementation of storage - purchase news [11]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Gaza cease - fire agreement and US tariff statements lead to a significant drop in oil prices. OPEC+增产 will continue to put downward pressure on prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline drives asphalt price down. Demand in the peak season is almost over, supply pressure increases, and asphalt may oscillate weakly [13]. - **PX**: It oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. Although PTA high - level operation provides some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [13]. - **PTA**: Downstream demand is weak, supply remains high, and port inventory increases. Prices will continue to run weakly [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory rises, demand deteriorates, and supply increases. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low level [14]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector, and terminal orders have limited improvement. It may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply growth far exceeds demand recovery, inventory increases, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: After the holiday, supply and demand both increase, but new capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure [15]. - **LLDPE**: After the holiday, supply increases and demand recovers slowly. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is less than expected, and prices will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Supply is above 190000 tons per day, and demand is weak. The short - term price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on export policy [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Sino - US trade tension intensifies, and the CBOT soybean market is under pressure. Domestic short - term soybean meal replenishment may increase, but in the fourth quarter, supply is sufficient. CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal may be under short - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the import of Australian rapeseed [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decrease before the import of Australian rapeseed. Palm oil has some support, and soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is bearish, with inventory rising unexpectedly. In the short - term, there is a risk of correction, but in the medium - term, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall [17].

Group 1 - The core of the current conflict revolves around the potential U.S. restrictions on the export of Boeing aircraft parts to China, which could severely disrupt China's aviation operations and maintenance capabilities [3][5] - China currently operates over 1,800 Boeing aircraft, with an additional 220 new orders pending delivery from Chinese airlines, highlighting the significant reliance on Boeing for its aviation needs [3] - If the U.S. imposes a ban on Boeing parts exports, over 1,000 aircraft could face maintenance challenges, leading to increased repair costs and extended downtime, which would disrupt normal operations in China's aviation industry [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's strategy appears to leverage Boeing parts as a bargaining chip to compel China to retract its recent rare earth export controls, but this approach may have unintended consequences [5][6] - Boeing's position is complex; while it is a major player in both military and civilian sectors, it also has significant stakes in the Chinese market and would likely oppose actions that could harm its business there [5][6] - The potential U.S. export restrictions could backfire, as Boeing's dependence on the Chinese market may lead to substantial pressure on the U.S. government to reconsider such measures [6] Group 3 - China's rare earth export controls and the U.S. potential restrictions on Boeing parts represent two critical cards in their ongoing strategic game, with both sides preparing for possible retaliatory actions [6] - The situation underscores the importance of mutual respect and cooperation, as both countries navigate the complexities of their economic interdependence [6]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing adjustments due to intensified geopolitical tensions, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the critical 20-day moving average [1] - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown while simultaneously increasing sanctions against China, including restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports and imposing high tariffs on Chinese shipping [1] - China has responded with export controls on rare earth materials and other critical resources, indicating a shift from defensive to offensive measures in trade relations [2] Group 2 - The global trend shows central banks, including China, are increasing gold reserves while reducing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, marking a significant shift in asset allocation [3] - The cobalt market is transitioning from a surplus to a shortage, with the Democratic Republic of Congo implementing export quotas that will likely drive prices higher [4][5] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt are adjusting their export quotas, indicating a strategic response to the changing market dynamics [4][5] Group 3 - The focus on companies such as Liqian Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jinchuan International highlights the investment opportunities in the resource sector amid changing geopolitical landscapes [6] - The Hang Seng Index is currently positioned at 26,290 points, with market sentiment leaning towards bearish due to uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations [7]

2025 10 11 3 4 Trump 100% Z0016413 gaoxiang@nawaa.com 9 10 1.74% 3bp 1.77% 1 14 2026-2027 2 9 MLF 3000 PSL 883 3000 2011 1290 2025 10 11 1. 1.1 9 19 T2512 107.96 0.19% TF2512 105.655 0.02% TS2512 102.352 0.01% TL2512 114.02 0.75% 1.84% 2.06bp 1.76bp 1.5% 1.1 113.40 113.60 113.80 114.00 114.20 114.40 114.60 107.20 107.30 107.40 107.50 107.60 107.70 107.80 107.90 108.00 108.10 T2512.CFE TL2512.CFE(RHS) iFind 1.2 2 105.40 105.45 105.50 105.55 105.60 105.65 105.70 105.75 105.80 102.24 102.26 102.28 102.30 102.3 ...

可稍微有点记性的都知道，美国那波关税政策早就在暂停状态了，哪儿来的"赚了很多钱"？难不成是从 其他国家那儿薅了羊毛？这前后矛盾的劲儿，比大豆滞销的新闻还抓马。 10月1日刷到特朗普那条推特时，属实看愣了——这哥们儿怕是急糊涂了，语序乱得像没整理的大豆 田，情绪却满得快溢出来。他一口咬定中方因为"谈判"不买美国大豆，害得自家豆农遭了殃，字里行间 全是"我好无奈"的戏码。 更有意思的是他后面的话，一边拍着胸脯说"通过关税赚了很多钱"，一边又赶紧安抚民众，说要从这笔 钱里拿一小部分帮农民，还喊出"永远不会让农民失望"的口号。 当然了，特朗普的老套路永远不会缺席——甩锅。果不其然，话锋一转就骂上了拜登，说"瞌睡乔"没执 行和中国的协议，按约定中方本该买美国数十亿美元的农产品，尤其是大豆。合着只要出点事儿，"瞌 睡乔"或者佩洛西就得被拉出来当靶子，这甩锅手段真是练得炉火纯青。 他还在推特里煽情，说"每个农民都是不折不扣的爱国者"，自己最爱这些爱国者，最后喊出"让大豆再 次变得出色"的口号。这话听着热血，可现实却给了他一巴掌。今年中国确实没给美国大豆下新订单， 虽说1-2月还进口了1361万吨，但从5月开始就一粒没买。 ...