Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Journal" [1][2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price increased. Supply tightened due to safety inspections and regulatory changes, while demand rose during the "peak summer" period. This price increase may push up steel prices and attract more funds to the coal industry. Traders should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level. The A - share market had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index holding above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [7][8]. - Gold may face short - term adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, but the long - term upward trend remains. Traders can buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - Iron ore has a high overvaluation risk due to weak market conditions, but it showed a significant rebound today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [15][16]. - Glass supply is still high, and demand has not significantly increased. However, it showed a strong breakthrough today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [18][19]. - Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation. But in the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. The capacity replacement window may close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The new "Mineral Resources Law" will force 30% of small coal mines to exit, and the supply of high - quality coking coal is tight, with the spot price rising by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 240,000 tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82%, and the daily production of molten iron rebounded to 235,000 tons. Coking plants' operating rate was 73%, and steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The A - share market opened higher, then declined, recovered, and finally pulled back at the end of the day. The Shanghai Composite Index held above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [8]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level [7]. Gold - Market News: The Fed decided not to cut interest rates, reducing the expectation of rate cuts this year, leading to a short - term adjustment in gold prices [12]. - Outlook: The long - term upward trend of gold remains. Traders can buy on dips when the price reaches an important support level [11]. Iron Ore - Market Conditions: Supply increased month - on - month, molten iron production declined seasonally, and port inventories increased again. The weak market increased the risk of overvaluation [16]. - Outlook: After a significant rebound today, a bullish view is now appropriate [15]. Glass - Market Conditions: There has been no large - scale cold repair of production lines due to losses, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not significantly increased [19]. - Outlook: After a strong breakthrough today, a bullish view is now appropriate [18]. Soybean Oil - Market News: The US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation are uncertain, which may cause short - term oscillations or strengthen the price of soybean oil [21]. - Outlook: In the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. The supply was tight due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Meanwhile, demand increased during the "peak summer" period, with high power plant consumption, rising coking industry and iron - making开工率. The price increase may raise steel production costs and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors are advised to seize the opportunity of low - buying on dips [3]. - For stock index futures, considering the June CPI and PPI data, the market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - For iron ore, supply is rising, iron - making output is seasonally weakening, and ports are restocking. There is a risk of overvaluation, and steel mill profits should be monitored. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. - For glass, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. - For soybean oil, due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. There are rumors that the capacity replacement window will close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The implementation of the Mineral Resources Law on July 1 led to about 30% of small coal mines facing exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi, causing a shortage of high - quality coking coal and a 50 - yuan/ton increase in spot price [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily power plant consumption exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry开工率 reached 82%, a new high for the year. The daily iron - making output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking plant开工率 was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market situation: In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. Iron Ore - Supply - demand situation: Supply increased month - on - month, iron - making output decreased seasonally, and ports started restocking. The weak reality increased the risk of overvaluation, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no major cold - repair situation due to losses in the supply side, factory inventories are still high, downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation, and demand has not increased significantly. It is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policy. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. Soybean Oil - Market situation: Due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" policies in the cement and steel industries, highlighting the need for production cuts and capacity adjustments to stabilize prices and improve profitability amid declining demand and prices [1][4][14]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [3][4]. - Major cement-producing provinces like Shandong and Sichuan are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [3]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decline from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [12][16]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also facing significant price declines, with the average price index for ordinary steel expected to drop to 3,506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [7]. - Steel prices have decreased by 6.51% since the beginning of the year and 16.25% compared to the same period last year, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. - Steel companies in Tangshan are set to implement hard production cuts from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron production capacity by approximately 50,000 tons per day [9]. Market Dynamics - The overall demand for cement and steel is declining, with the construction sector showing insufficient project starts, leading to increased operational pressures on companies [4][12]. - The article notes that the "anti-involution" movement is a response to the oversupply and fierce competition in the market, aiming to prevent systemic collapse in the industry [16][18]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions necessitate a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profitability [18].

Core Viewpoint - The cement and steel industries are facing significant challenges due to declining demand and prices, leading to a consensus among companies to implement production cuts and measures to protect profits, termed "anti-involution" policies [1][2][5]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [1]. - Major cement-producing provinces, Shandong and Sichuan, are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decrease from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [6][9]. - The current average cement price is projected to decline from 419 yuan/ton in 2023 to 386 yuan/ton in 2024, and further to 381 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also under pressure, with prices at historical lows following a peak in 2021. The average price index for steel is expected to drop to approximately 3506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [3][7]. - Steel production companies are implementing production cuts, particularly in Tangshan, where hard emission reduction measures will be enforced from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron output by about 50,000 tons per day [4]. - The steel industry's profits have significantly decreased, from 4240.9 billion yuan in 2021 to 365.5 billion yuan in 2022, and are projected to be 564.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 291.9 billion yuan in 2024 [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The overall market for both cement and steel is characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a need for structural adjustments to avoid systemic collapse in the industry [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" measures are crucial for achieving a balance between supply and demand during periods of declining demand, which is essential for the healthy development of the industry [9][10]. - The current economic environment necessitates a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profit margins [10][11].

Summary of Conference Call on the Cement Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the cement industry in China, particularly the Northeast region, and the government's emphasis on "anti-involution" to maintain international reputation and financial security [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Government Policies**: The Chinese government is taking measures to prevent vicious competition in high-loan sectors like photovoltaics and automobiles, which could threaten financial security. The China Cement Association has issued documents emphasizing capacity replacement and staggered production to regulate industry order [1][2]. - **Staggered Production**: The cement industry is implementing staggered production to achieve short-term benefits. Major enterprises in Northeast China are negotiating production halts to maintain prices, but government-led unified reporting is more effective [1][4]. - **Long-term Planning**: Companies are encouraged to develop 3-5 year plans to shut down inefficient capacity and optimize resource allocation through regional integration and mergers [1][4]. - **Profitability and Pricing**: In 2024, the Northeast market saw a price increase of approximately 100 yuan, leading to an additional profit of about 7 billion yuan. However, demand is expected to decline in 2025, with a significant drop in demand in Heilongjiang [1][7]. - **Cost Control**: Low coal prices are aiding cost control, and current production price maintenance measures can effectively alleviate price pressure [1][4]. Challenges and Considerations - **Industry Concentration**: The cement industry has a low concentration with thousands of companies, making management difficult. Companies need to design reasonable incentive mechanisms to balance sales incentives with corporate profits [5][6]. - **Support for Anti-involution**: While private enterprises support anti-involution, there are disagreements among large groups regarding top-level design [6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The Northeast provinces have relatively independent cement markets, with specific price points needed for profitability: 300 yuan for Liaoning, 350 yuan for Jilin, and 350-400 yuan for Heilongjiang [1][4]. Future Outlook - **Potential for Price Recovery**: There is an expectation that prices may recover after key projects are released in August, but overall profitability may not match last year's levels due to volume losses [1][7]. - **Capacity Reduction**: The industry is looking at reducing excess capacity through quality control and shutting down outdated production lines. The actual capacity is around 2 billion tons, with a need to gradually close down 10% of inefficient capacity [12][19]. Communication and Coordination - **Inter-Enterprise Communication**: Increased communication among enterprises and across regions has led to beneficial outcomes, particularly in establishing trust and collaboration [23]. - **Government Coordination**: There is a need for stronger administrative measures and coordination between government bodies and enterprises to ensure effective policy implementation and address industry challenges [15][18]. Conclusion - The cement industry in China is navigating a complex landscape of government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and preventing excessive competition. Companies are encouraged to adopt long-term strategies while managing immediate pricing pressures and operational challenges. The success of these initiatives will depend on effective communication and collaboration among all stakeholders involved.

Core Viewpoint - The independent directors of Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd. reviewed and approved several proposals related to financing and procurement activities, ensuring compliance with regulations and safeguarding the interests of shareholders, particularly minority shareholders. Group 1: Financing and Trust Transactions - The company’s subsidiary, Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum Electric Co., Ltd., plans to engage in perpetual trust business with Baorui Trust Co., Ltd. to meet funding needs for the Zaha No. 2 350,000-ton green electricity aluminum project, applying for special bond funding of 700 million yuan [1][2] - The trust funds will be used specifically for the Zaha No. 2 project, with terms being indefinite and interest rates determined through mutual agreement [1][2] Group 2: Procurement and Maintenance Projects - The company’s subsidiary, Tongliao Holin River Pit Power Co., Ltd., intends to use a single-source procurement method to contract the desulfurization system maintenance project to Shenyang Yuanda Environmental Engineering Co., Ltd., which has the necessary qualifications and a good reputation in the region [2][3][4] - The maintenance fee is set at 6.51 million yuan per year, with a total maintenance cost of 14.666 million yuan for the period from October 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027 [4] Group 3: IT Operations and Services - The company plans to procure IT operation and maintenance services for its headquarters and related units through direct negotiation with Beijing Zhongqi Times Technology Co., Ltd., with a total estimated cost of 35.72 million yuan [4][5] Group 4: Capacity Replacement Transactions - The company’s South Open-pit Coal Mine aims to purchase capacity replacement indicators to increase its approved capacity from 18 million tons per year to 20 million tons per year, enhancing competitiveness in the coal market [5][6] - The transaction involves purchasing 100,000 tons of replacement indicators from a subsidiary of the State Power Investment Corporation, which is classified as a related party transaction [5][6]

Group 1: Market Demand and Pricing - From Q3 2024, domestic steel demand has been insufficient, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a decline in unit gross profit and sales volume in Q3 2024. However, Q4 2024 is expected to see improved market conditions with maximum production and sales volume [1] - In 2024, the prices of raw materials decreased: iron ore by 5.61%, coking coal by 12.38%, and coke by 14.73%, while the comprehensive steel sales price dropped by 9.41%. This resulted in a narrowing of the company's gross profit margin [2] Group 2: Product Structure and Self-Generation - The company’s main steel products include construction materials, metal products, medium and heavy plates, high-quality round steel, and H-beams. The proportion of industrial steel is expected to exceed 58% in 2025 [2] - Self-generated electricity ratios are as follows: Sanming base at 97.6%, Quanzhou at 58.01%, and Luoyuan at 47.39% for 2024 [2] Group 3: Production Capacity and Emission Control - The company operates three production bases: Sanming, Quanzhou, and Luoyuan. Clean transportation modifications and assessments have been completed at Sanming and Luoyuan, while Quanzhou is expected to complete public disclosure by Q3 2025 [3] - Most organized and unorganized emission control modifications are nearing completion, with most expected to be publicly disclosed by the end of 2025 [3] Group 4: Scrap Steel and Cost Management - The amount of scrap steel added to the converter remains stable, typically between 810-880 kg/ton, with adjustments made based on actual conditions [3] - Self-produced coke is generally cheaper than purchased coke, but there are instances where self-production costs exceed those of external purchases. The company maintains a coking plant with an annual output of approximately 900,000 tons, with any shortfall covered by external purchases [4]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price declines across the supply chain, driven by weak downstream demand and inventory issues [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average transaction price of N-type polysilicon has decreased, with N-type re-investment material at 34,400 yuan/ton, down 6.27% week-on-week, and N-type granular silicon at 33,500 yuan/ton, down 2.90% [1]. - N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafer prices fell to 0.90 yuan/piece, down 3.23% week-on-week, while N-type G12R and G12 prices also saw slight declines [2]. - The average prices for N-type G10L and G12 solar cells have dropped to 0.24 yuan/W and 0.255 yuan/W, respectively, with G12R remaining stable at 0.265 yuan/W [3]. Group 2: Demand and Inventory Issues - Downstream demand for silicon wafers has weakened due to reduced production of batteries and modules, leading to lower prices and increased inventory levels across the supply chain [2][4]. - Current silicon material inventory exceeds 300,000 tons, with buyers holding at least 100,000 tons, while silicon wafer inventory has risen to 20-23 GW [4]. - The component inventory has increased to 1.5 to 1.8 months, indicating a potential accumulation risk as demand remains weak [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The industry anticipates continued pressure on silicon wafer prices due to weak demand and the inability of major manufacturers to reduce production significantly [3][4]. - Despite calls for capacity control from manufacturers, maintaining market share has led to a prisoner’s dilemma, complicating efforts to stabilize prices [4][5]. - The integration of leading companies in the industry is expected to take time and require significant resources, with market sentiment likely remaining cautious until at least the second half of next year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Hebei Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (Hegang) remains at AAA with a stable outlook, supported by strong shareholder backing, significant scale advantages, and robust product competitiveness, despite facing challenges from fluctuating steel prices and high financial leverage [4][11]. Company Overview - Hegang is one of China's largest steel producers, benefiting from its scale, product structure, and market position, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [6][15]. - The company has a strong financial flexibility due to good bank-enterprise relationships and a robust equity financing capability as a publicly listed entity [6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Hegang's total assets are projected to reach approximately 2691.04 billion yuan, with total liabilities at around 2015.21 billion yuan, indicating a high debt burden [8]. - The company's operating revenue is expected to decline to 1216.17 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 8.01 billion yuan, reflecting the impact of weak downstream demand [8][26]. - The EBITDA margin is projected to decrease to 9.16% in 2025, indicating pressure on profitability due to falling steel prices [9][29]. Industry Context - The steel industry is experiencing significant cost and price volatility, with expectations of continued pressure on profit margins due to weak demand and high financial leverage [12][14]. - The ongoing transition and capacity replacement projects are expected to alleviate some environmental pressures, but capital expenditure remains a concern [24][25]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected declines in steel prices, increases in raw material costs, and challenges related to environmental regulations and capacity relocation [5][12]. - The company faces ongoing financial pressures from high debt levels and the need for continued investment in capacity upgrades and environmental compliance [26][27]. Future Outlook - Hegang aims to enhance its competitive position by increasing the proportion of high-value products and improving operational efficiency, despite anticipated challenges in the steel market [16][20]. - The company is expected to maintain its production capacity advantage, with a focus on expanding its market presence and product offerings [16][19].

Group 1: Coal Sector Insights - The coal prices have likely bottomed out in the short term, with limited room for further decline, but the timing of a rebound remains uncertain. The coal market in 2025 is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance due to ongoing low-carbon transitions and energy security policies in China [1] - The company anticipates that the price stabilization of coal will gradually improve as the government continues to promote energy structure optimization and stable energy supply policies [1] Group 2: Aluminum Industry Considerations - The company is considering entering the alumina industry, focusing on the availability of bauxite resources. Current market conditions have imposed a ceiling on aluminum production capacity, while alumina supply continues to increase [1] - The company currently holds partial alumina production rights through joint ventures and plans to mitigate cost volatility by monitoring supply-demand changes and engaging in strategic procurement [1] Group 3: External Indicators and Market Conditions - The company is actively tracking market conditions and power supply in the Xinjiang region to assess the feasibility of expanding production capacity through mergers and relocations [2] - In Yunnan, the electricity supply has improved significantly due to increased renewable energy, leading to a slight decrease in electricity prices compared to last year, which has positively impacted the cost of electrolytic aluminum [2] Group 4: Dividend Policy and Financial Performance - The company has a strong tradition of cash dividends, maintaining a payout ratio of around 30% since its listing, with a notable increase to 41.78% in 2024. The company aims to sustain a stable dividend distribution policy while considering shareholder returns and long-term development needs [2] - The company continues to enhance profitability by consolidating and improving its integrated coal-electricity-aluminum supply chain [2] Group 5: International Expansion Considerations - The company currently has no plans for overseas investments due to high risks associated with large capital requirements and long payback periods, but it is closely monitoring international market trends for potential opportunities [2]