Core Viewpoint - The revised economic plan proposed by Senate Republicans aims to cut trillions in taxes for families and businesses, but at the cost of reducing healthcare coverage for low-income Americans and increasing the national deficit [1][2]. Tax Cuts and Provisions - The new version of the bill expands certain tax cuts while raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, compared to the House version's $4 trillion [1]. - The plan seeks to make three corporate tax cuts permanent, including R&D expense deductions, expanded interest expense deductions, and immediate expensing for new equipment [2]. - The current $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT) remains as a placeholder, with ongoing negotiations expected [1][2]. Healthcare and Medicaid Changes - The Senate version proposes more aggressive cuts to Medicaid for low-income and disabled individuals, limiting states' options for funding [2][3]. - The bill also restricts new taxes or increases on healthcare providers in states that did not expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act [3]. Child and Elderly Tax Credits - The plan permanently expands the child tax credit to $2,200 per child and introduces a new $6,000 deduction for seniors [3]. Energy Incentives - The bill will terminate the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit within 180 days of enactment and eliminate subsidies for wind and solar energy [3]. Legislative Timeline and Political Context - Senate Republicans aim to pass the bill before July 4, with President Trump pressuring lawmakers to reach an agreement on what he calls the "great beautiful bill" [3][4]. - The release of the Senate bill coincides with efforts by Trump's allies to defend the tax cuts from his first term, which they argue stimulated corporate investment [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Due to the fact that tariff policies have not promoted production and consumption recovery, leading to an increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to be hard to fall and easy to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Silver Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 787.93 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.93 compared to the previous day and 15.11 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 3,064.00, and the open interest was 222.00 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The trading volume was 3,064.00, with a significant change compared to previous data. The open interest was 222.00, an increase of 2,092.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 73.30, with a change of 3404.30 compared to the previous day and 3452.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 189,837.00, and the open interest was 324,992.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3397.60 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 37.75 compared to the previous day and an increase of 57.70 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 8887.00, with relevant changes in trading volume and open interest [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 36.37, and there were corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, etc. [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 36.19 dollars/ounce [1]. Important Information - **Geopolitical**: Iran hopes to dialogue with the US and Israel to end hostilities and is willing to return to the nuclear - issue negotiation table if the US does not participate in attacks [1]. - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Senate - version Republican tax bill proposes to raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, 1 trillion dollars higher than the House plan. It also plans to make three corporate tax breaks permanent but has not reached a final agreement on "state and local tax deductions" (SALT) [1]. - **Inflation and Central Bank Policies**: - US May consumer inflation CPI annual rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations for September/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with market expectations of about one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May, with market expectations of about two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3000 - 3200 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8300 - 8500 and the resistance level around 9500 - 10000 [1]. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 11.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was - 2.68 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 73.18 dollars/barrel [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 78550.00 yuan/ton, LME copper cash was 47.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 2974.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 1.50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.39%, the US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4600%, and the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.2000%. The US dollar index was 99.2031, and the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1772 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3.91, the S&P 500 was 32.75, and other major global stock indices also had corresponding values and changes [1].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 白银：高位回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 792.30 | -0.26% | 785.78 | -1.37% | | | 黄金T+D | 787.93 | -0.37% | 783.63 | -1.16% | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3404.30 | -1.40% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8858 | 0.76% | 8817.00 | -0.08% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 8835 | 0. ...

Group 1 - The revised economic plan proposed by Senate Republicans aims to cut taxes for families and businesses by trillions of dollars, at the cost of reducing healthcare coverage for low-income Americans and increasing the national deficit [1] - The new version of the bill expands certain tax cuts and raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, compared to the House version which proposed a $4 trillion increase [1] - The Senate plans to vote on the bill next week to ensure it is sent to President Trump before July 4 [1] Group 2 - The committee draft makes significant changes by making three corporate tax cuts permanent, including R&D expense deductions, expanded interest expense deductions, and immediate expensing for new equipment [2] - The plan is more aggressive in cutting Medicaid for low-income and disabled individuals compared to the House version, limiting states' options for self-funding Medicaid [2] - The bill expands the child tax credit to $2,200 per child permanently and introduces a new deduction for charitable donations for non-itemizers [2] Group 3 - The bill will terminate the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit and eliminate subsidies for wind and solar energy within 180 days of enactment, which could severely impact the struggling solar industry [3] - Despite ongoing negotiations on key policy issues, Senate Republicans are pushing for the legislation to be passed by July 4, with Trump pressuring lawmakers to reach an agreement [3] - Research from the White House's National Economic Council indicates that the corporate tax reform from 2017 has stimulated business investment, although some economists warn that the tax cuts will exacerbate the already rising national deficit [3]

Market Performance - US stock market opened high with all three major indices closing up: Nasdaq increased by 1.52%, S&P 500 rose by 0.94%, and Dow Jones gained 0.75% [1] - Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 3%, reaching its highest closing since late February [1] - Major tech stocks saw broad gains, with Meta and Intel rising nearly 3%, while Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix, and Google increased by over 1% [1] - Kering Group experienced a significant rise of over 12%, marking its largest single-day gain since November 2008 [1] - Most popular Chinese stocks also saw gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up by 2.07% [1] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump confirmed that Iran signaled a desire to ease tensions through intermediaries, indicating a potential for negotiations [2] - The easing of geopolitical tensions and progress in trade negotiations contributed to a recovery in investor risk appetite, leading to a rise in the "Tech Seven" stocks [2] Trade Agreements - Trump expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement with Canada in the coming weeks during the G7 summit [3] - A new US-UK trade agreement was signed, which Trump described as fair and beneficial, expected to create numerous jobs and increase revenue [3] - The agreement includes measures to ease trade in automobiles, agricultural products, and aerospace, although steel tariff concerns remain unresolved [3][4] Debt Ceiling and Economic Policy - The Senate Republicans proposed a revised economic plan that raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, compared to the House's $4 trillion proposal [6] - The revised plan aims to maintain consistency with the House version to avoid delays that could risk a default [6] - Key changes include making certain corporate tax cuts permanent and reducing the proposed tax rate on university endowments [7] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that while the plan may increase the deficit, its impact on economic growth could be limited [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Republican Party in the U.S. Senate has unveiled a tax reform proposal that includes raising the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion [1]

Group 1 - The Senate Republicans have unveiled revised tax and healthcare provisions in President Trump's multi-trillion dollar economic package, marking a significant step towards the goal of passing the bill by July 4 [1] - The new version of the bill expands certain tax cuts and raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, compared to the $4 trillion proposed by the House [1] - Senate Republican leaders aim to avoid prolonged negotiations over the substance of the bill, as failure to act could lead to a U.S. default as early as mid-August when the Treasury can no longer take extraordinary debt limit measures [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is likely to create short-term volatility in the US stock market, primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] - It is noted that while "soft" economic data has shown improvement, there is a lack of supporting "hard" data in the short term [1] - The report indicates that historical analysis shows wars typically do not prevent long-term gains in the US stock market, as the key factors are the nature of the conflict and the US economy's response [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent US CPI data, which showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, meeting expectations [2] - It mentions that the market is increasingly betting on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year due to the CPI data [2] - The report expresses a cautious outlook on the US long-term treasury yields, suggesting that the risks of rising yields outweigh the risks of falling yields in the short term [3] Group 3 - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing increased rotation, with a need for new capital and sustained policy stimulus for continued rebounds [4] - It highlights that global funds are primarily flowing into developed markets, with US stocks still in a rebound trend [4] - The report indicates that the gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, particularly into SPDR Gold Trust, which received $721 million [6][19]

美国财长贝森特：美国仍然是最稳定的债券市场。必须提高和延长债务上限，"难以想象"债务上限突破 后会发生什么。 ...

美国财长贝森特：国会山必须提高债务上限，并延长债务上限措施的期限。 ...