Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Republican Party in the U.S. Senate has unveiled a tax reform proposal that includes raising the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion [1]

Group 1 - The Senate Republicans have unveiled revised tax and healthcare provisions in President Trump's multi-trillion dollar economic package, marking a significant step towards the goal of passing the bill by July 4 [1] - The new version of the bill expands certain tax cuts and raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, compared to the $4 trillion proposed by the House [1] - Senate Republican leaders aim to avoid prolonged negotiations over the substance of the bill, as failure to act could lead to a U.S. default as early as mid-August when the Treasury can no longer take extraordinary debt limit measures [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is likely to create short-term volatility in the US stock market, primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] - It is noted that while "soft" economic data has shown improvement, there is a lack of supporting "hard" data in the short term [1] - The report indicates that historical analysis shows wars typically do not prevent long-term gains in the US stock market, as the key factors are the nature of the conflict and the US economy's response [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent US CPI data, which showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, meeting expectations [2] - It mentions that the market is increasingly betting on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year due to the CPI data [2] - The report expresses a cautious outlook on the US long-term treasury yields, suggesting that the risks of rising yields outweigh the risks of falling yields in the short term [3] Group 3 - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing increased rotation, with a need for new capital and sustained policy stimulus for continued rebounds [4] - It highlights that global funds are primarily flowing into developed markets, with US stocks still in a rebound trend [4] - The report indicates that the gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, particularly into SPDR Gold Trust, which received $721 million [6][19]

美国财长贝森特：美国仍然是最稳定的债券市场。必须提高和延长债务上限，"难以想象"债务上限突破 后会发生什么。 ...

美国财长贝森特：国会山必须提高债务上限，并延长债务上限措施的期限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that it remains to be seen whether the tax legislation will increase the U.S. debt levels [1] Group 1 - The impact of the tax proposal on overall benefits is uncertain [1] - The X-Date, or the date when the U.S. will hit its debt ceiling, is a moving target [1] - It is anticipated that the X-Date will occur in mid to late summer, with predictions for July and August being imprecise [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. For bonds, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run. For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these [2][3][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the ChiNext Index down 1.17%, etc. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 12.9 billion yuan to 1.4154 trillion yuan. There were positive policy news such as allowing certain Hong Kong - listed enterprises to list in Shenzhen and the MSCI China Index rising. The financing amount increased by 7.447 billion yuan, and the liquidity was relatively loose. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures on dips and also consider going long on IC or IM futures [2]. - The basis ratios of stock index futures are provided. The trading logic is based on policy support, and the strategy is to buy IF long contracts on dips, with no arbitrage recommendation [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all had small increases. There were news about the "one - old - one - young" service and Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The short - term bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run [4][5][6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.23% to 774.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.43% to 8889 yuan/kg. COMEX gold and silver both declined. If the US fiscal bill is passed, the debt ceiling problem will be solved, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit will ease before July 4, which is a marginal negative factor for gold prices. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a stable US dollar index, copper prices oscillated downward. LME copper inventories decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [9][10]. Aluminum - With the listing of cast aluminum alloy and the recovery of domestic black commodities, aluminum prices oscillated upward. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods increased. Although the domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, it is still unstable. The decline in inventory will support aluminum prices, but the increase in US import tariffs on aluminum products will limit the upside of aluminum prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [11]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and zinc smelter profits have increased again. Zinc ingots are expected to have a large increase in production, while terminal consumption is weak. After three consecutive sets of inventory accumulation data, zinc prices fell significantly. It is necessary to observe the actions of smelting enterprises at the 21,500 yuan/ton level. If there is no production control, zinc prices may continue to decline [12]. Lead - The price of lead rose slightly. The downstream battery enterprises are reducing prices for promotion, and terminal procurement is weak. The operating rate of primary lead smelting has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead products is high. Lead prices are expected to remain weak [13]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The supply of nickel ore is tight due to weather conditions, and the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded. The supply of intermediate products is still tight, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to strengthen. The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long term. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [14]. Tin - The price of tin decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the processing fee is at a historical low. The operating rate of smelting enterprises is low. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has decreased. The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat, and the futures price increased slightly. The contract position decreased, and the main contract will switch. There is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand, and it is expected to oscillate. The reference operating range for the futures contract is provided [16]. Alumina - The price of alumina decreased slightly. The spot price remained unchanged, and the import window opened. The inventory of futures decreased. Although there are disturbances in the ore end, the overcapacity pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to go short on rallies. The reference operating range for the main contract is provided, and risks such as policy changes in Guinea need to be noted [17][18]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased. The market competition has intensified after the cancellation of the price limit policy by steel mills. The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the market transaction is light. The future market trend depends on whether the downstream demand can drive the digestion of inventory [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply of hot - rolled coil increased, and the demand remained weak with a slight increase in inventory. The export volume decreased this week, and the market has entered the traditional off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, terminal demand, and cost support [21][22]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in supply and demand and macro - events [23]. Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased. The price of soda ash was relatively stable, and the supply decreased due to maintenance, but the demand also decreased. The mid - term supply of soda ash is still loose, and both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weak - oscillating trend [24]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon decreased slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon was flat. The prices of both are in a downward trend, mainly due to overcapacity, weak demand, and a decrease in cost expectations. It is not recommended to bottom - fish blindly. It is necessary to pay attention to the support and pressure levels [25][26]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon decreased. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [29][30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and rebounded. The bulls are optimistic about rubber production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The operating rates of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory consumption was slow. It is recommended to take a short - term long or neutral approach and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][35][38]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased, while the price of INE crude oil increased. The gasoline inventory in Fujeirah port increased, and the diesel inventory decreased. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the shale oil support effect, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [39]. Methanol - The futures price of methanol decreased, and the spot price increased. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand has improved slightly. The price may decline further, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread [40]. Urea - The futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price was flat. The supply is high, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, but there is still top - dressing demand. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [41][42]. PVC - The price of PVC decreased. The cost is stable, the production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but a rebound may occur if the export does not weaken as expected [43]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply load was stable, and the downstream load decreased slightly. The inventory increased slightly. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking may slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [44]. PTA - The price of PTA increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is stable. The inventory is expected to continue to decrease, and the processing fee is supported. PTA will oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Para - xylene - The price of para - xylene increased. The supply load increased, and the demand from PTA also increased. The inventory is expected to decrease slowly in June and enter the de - stocking cycle again in the third quarter. The short - term valuation is at a medium - high level, and it is expected to oscillate [46]. Polyethylene (PE) - The spot price of PE increased. The supply pressure will ease in June, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The spot price of PP was stable. The supply is expected to increase significantly in June, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in June [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The price of live pigs increased in most areas. The demand is general, and the support for pig prices is limited. The short - term pig price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short on rallies for the far - month contract [50]. Eggs - The price of eggs was mostly stable with a slight decrease in some areas. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The theoretical supply is still increasing, and the consumption is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract and pay attention to the support of the far - month contract when the position is large [51]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans increased slightly, and the domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The new - season US soybeans may oscillate at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range and the supply - demand situation for the 09 contract [52][53]. Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first 10 days of June. The export of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased in May, but the inventory in other countries is low. The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate due to the balance of positive and negative factors [54][55][56]. Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. The spot price was stable. The export of Brazilian sugar decreased slightly in the first week of June, and the sugar production in India is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The international supply situation has improved, and the domestic supply may increase. The sugar price is likely to decline [57][58]. Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The spot price increased. The planting and budding rates of US cotton are slightly lower than last year. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the supply and demand situation has improved marginally. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate [59][60][61].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold maintains an intraday oscillatory pattern, while silver oscillates in the range of 8,900 - 8,930 yuan/kg after opening lower. The gold market absorbs the decline in inflation expectations and the anticipation of China - US negotiations. A positive outcome from the negotiations may trigger a new round of gold price corrections [2]. - Institutional demand supports the bullish market structure. Central banks, including China, are diversifying away from the US dollar, providing long - term fundamental support for gold prices. Geopolitical tensions can rapidly drive up gold prices [2]. - The next market catalyst is the US May CPI data on June 11. Lower - than - expected CPI data may reignite expectations of interest rate cuts and push gold prices back to recent highs [2]. - In the long run, the repeated expectations of Trump's tariff policies, the persistent US debt problem, and the weakening economic data leading to interest rate cut expectations form triple pressures. The damage to the US dollar's credit may accelerate the global de - dollarization process, which is structurally beneficial to the precious metals market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 775.06 yuan/gram, up 0.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 8,887 yuan/kg, down 22 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 170,163 lots, down 3,021 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 465,984 lots, down 25,402 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 130,510 lots, up 1,723 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 128,510 lots, down 5,009 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipt quantity is 17,817 kg, down 30 kg; the silver warehouse receipt quantity is 1,193,716 kg, up 35,390 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 768.19 yuan/gram, up 0.79 yuan; the silver spot price is 8,863 yuan/kg, up 83 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 6.87 yuan/gram, up 0.45 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 24 yuan/kg, up 105 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 936.22 tons, up 2.01 tons; silver ETF holdings are 14,656.98 tons, down 52.31 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 187,905 contracts, up 13,721 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 60,770 contracts, up 7,758 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total annual global demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 19.47%, down 1.36%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 25.96%, down 0.13% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 22.54%, down 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 22.54%, down 0.27% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and will continue on June 10 [2]. - Senate Republicans plan to propose revised tax and healthcare provisions this week for Trump's $3 - trillion economic plan, ignoring Elon Musk's accusations and aiming to enact the bill before July 4 [2]. - The US Congressional Budget Office expects the US to hit the debt ceiling between mid - August and the end of September [2]. - In May, US consumers' future inflation expectations declined across the board for the first time since 2024, with the one - year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% [2]. - Citigroup postponed its forecast of US interest rate cuts from July to September and expects three rate cuts this year instead of four [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.01 tons to 936.22 tons, while the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 52.31 tons to 14,656.98 tons [2]. - China increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month in May, and central banks' actions provide long - term support for gold prices [2]. - The next catalyst is the US May CPI data on June 11. Lower - than - expected data may push gold prices up [2]. - Long - term factors such as Trump's tariff policies, the US debt problem, and interest rate cut expectations are beneficial to the precious metals market [2]. - The Shanghai gold 2508 contract is recommended to focus on the range of 760 - 790 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2508 contract is recommended to focus on the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/kg [2].

国会预算办公室的最新估计将所谓的"X日"比其3月份的预测至少推迟了两周。这可能为国会提供了更 多时间来协商一项协议，以增加联邦借款权限。提高债务上限已被纳入特朗普的全面税收和支出计划 中。 这一时间表给共和党人施加了压力，要求其在未来几周内迅速就庞大的税收和支出法案达成一致，他们 已将允许债务上行提高5万亿美元的条款附加到该立法中。"X日"实际上成为国会通过特朗普标志性经 济计划的最后期限。 贝森特此前曾表示，该法案的工作应在7月4日前完成，尽管参议院多数党领袖约翰・图恩（John Thune）称这一截止日期是"理想化"的。 如果共和党议员未能及时完成相关工作，他们将需要与民主党谈判——这为反对党提供了潜在筹码，可 能借此遏制特朗普的部分计划。 美国债务上限已于今年年初重新生效，自那以后，财政部一直在使用特殊的会计手段来避免突破上限， 同时仍按时履行联邦义务。共和党人在特朗普所谓的"美丽大法案"中附加了一项条款，以赋予财政部数 万亿美元的额外借款权。该法案目前正在参议院进行审议。 国会预算办公室在周一发布的月度预算报告中写道："现在估计，如果债务上限保持不变，政府利用非 常规措施借款的能力可能会在2025年8 ...

2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 4.15 个基点报 3.993% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 1 【经济数据】 究 报 告 美国会预算办公室：美国可能会在 8 月中旬用尽避免债务触 及上限的措施 美联储调查：5 月消费者通胀预期全面下降，为 2024 年来 首次 日本修正后 GDP 萎缩收窄至 0.2% 中国对沙特等 4 国试行免签政策 中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.3% 海关总署：前 5 个月货物贸易进出口同比增长 2.5% 5 月全国乘用车市场零售 196 万辆，同比增 13.9% 英国金融监管机构与英伟达达成合作，为银行 AI 实验提供 安全沙盒 亚马逊拟在宾夕法尼亚州投资 200 亿美元用于 AI 和云计算 星巴克中国将发力非咖啡饮品市场 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.39 个基点报 4.079% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.18 个基点报 4.474% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25, ...