Export and Import Trends - In May 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, down from 8.1% in April, while import growth was -3.4%, compared to -0.2% previously[4] - Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% in May, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels[7] - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025[7] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US dropped significantly by 34.5%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America also slowed to 14.8% and 2.3%, respectively[12] - Exports to other regions increased to 11.8%, up from 10.4% previously, indicating resilience in non-US trade[12] Product-Specific Performance - Agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw significant declines, while machinery and raw materials remained stable[17] - Integrated circuits and ship exports continued to perform strongly, with automotive exports showing signs of recovery[17] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Optimists believe that the decline in May's export growth is temporary, expecting a rebound in June due to reduced tariffs, while pessimists fear a significant drop in orders due to preemptive exports in April[24] - The report suggests that while export momentum may normalize, a drastic decline is unlikely, with potential further decreases in year-on-year comparisons in Q4 due to high base effects[21] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include judicial friction over tariffs that could lead to further reductions in US tariffs[26]

美国经济放缓迹象明显，通胀压力可控吗？关税影响是否会体现在此次CPI数据中？点击查看详细解 读！ 相关链接 CPI通胀预测，数据或低于预期？ ...

6月11日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘红。其中，焦炭期货主力合约开盘报1345.0元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦炭主力最高触及1365.5元，下方探低1339.0元，涨幅达1.31%附近。 目前来看，焦炭行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于焦炭后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 国投安信期货表示，铁水小幅回落，焦化利润尚存，所以焦化日产仍处于年内较高水平。焦炭整体库存 小幅抬升，贸易商无采购动作。整体来看，碳元素供应端仍较充裕，下游铁水稳定在241以上，关税影 响有所缓解，且蒙煤几无贸易利润的影响下，价格带动焦炭一起反弹。中美关税扰动较大，持续关注相 关动向。 国信期货指出，焦炭现货三轮提降落地，焦企平均亏损略有扩大，上周开工率小幅下滑，供应环比下 降。需求方面，淡季钢厂减产，上周钢联口径铁水产量环比微降，钢厂主动降低厂内原料库存，焦炭供 需双弱，焦企库存累积。原料端矛盾不足，盘面承压回落，建议短线操作。 南华期货（603093）分析称，中美关系缓和带动市场情绪修复，焦煤因前期盘面超跌，本轮反弹弹性较 好，焦炭跟随焦煤反弹，但受制于下游提降，反弹幅度弱于焦煤，盘面焦化利润收缩。目前焦煤 ...

出口回落的 3 个因素与关税微观影响的 4 条线索 20250610 摘要 美国关税对中国出口产生滞后影响，尤其对美出口大幅下降约 35%，但 中美会谈后影响减弱，机电产品单价有所改善，盈利有望修复。 中国集成电路出口逆势高增，表现优于越南、韩国等电子贸易经济体， 反映电子链条强劲的抢出口需求，需关注后续节奏扰动。 中国对美国消费品出口敏感度较高，中间品因前期经验和政策扶持具备 韧性。新优势产业如锂电池、新能源车对美出口逆势上涨。 5 月中国商品结构变化受机电品类、跨境电商品类及仿制鞋包影响，跨 境电商受需求走弱影响，新优势产业如船舶、集成电路及汽车链条外需 走强。 中国集成电路及电子产品在全球市场表现出逆势高增长，反映全球技术 革命驱动下电子业投资及贸易冲击较低，需关注未来可能出现的节奏扰 动。 5 月中国进口受能源及矿产相关资本品需求走弱拖累，东盟、非洲等经 济体下行明显，机电品类，特别是中国台湾的集成电路需求是主要支撑。 关税缓和信号和全球制造业 PMI 企稳缓解外需收缩压力，中美经贸会谈 推进有望进一步缓解关税紧张局势，但贸易形势仍具不确定性。 Q&A 5 月份中国进出口数据表现如何？有哪些主要因素影 ...

沃尔玛于6月5日和6日举办了其2025年"员工周"活动，其中包括店铺参观和管理层会议。对此，高盛发布研报， 给予沃尔玛(WMT.US)"买入"评级，目标价101美元。 | WMT | 12m Price Target: $101.00 | Price: $97.47 | | Upside: 3.6% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RIIV | GS Forecast | | | | | | | | 1/25 | 1/26E | 1/27E | 1/28E | | Market cap: $780.4bn | Revenue ($ mn) | 680,985.0 | 706, 103.4 | 735,970.8 | 767,736.4 | | Enterprise value: $816.2bn | EBITDA ($ mn) | 42,477.0 | 44,787.6 | 49,070.0 | 53,827.8 | | 3m ADTV: $2.0bn | EBIT ($ mn) | 29,504.0 | 30,712.1 | 34,494.6 | 38 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 主要数据要点 证券研究报告 Research | Equity 王逸, CFA +86(21)2401-8930 | yi.wang@goldmansachs.cn 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司 徐时 2025年6月4日 | 7:05AM CST 本周要点： 我们的关税影响评估（图表 1至图表 4，更多详细方法）显 示，出口依赖型城市在二手房交易和看房量方面的表现继续 领先，与其他城市的差距进一步扩大：1) 交易：出口依赖度 最高的城市在一手房市场上表现落后（总交易面积环比持 平，其他城市+7%），但在二手房市场上表现领先（环比 -10%，其他城市-19%，意味着差距为+9个百分点，而前一周 为+1个百分点，2024年以来平均为零）；2) 出口依赖型城市 的二手房看房量环比下降9%（其他城市-15%，意味着差距为 +6个百分点，而前一周为+2个百分点，2025年以来平均为 零），二手房挂牌量环比收紧5%（其他城市-6%，意味着差 距为+1个百分点，前一周/2025年以来的平均水平为+1个百分 点）。一手房和二手房市场的信心均走软，中介（中原经纪 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon athletica has been a top-performing consumer stock over the last 20 years, significantly contributing to the growth of the athleisure market and becoming one of the most valuable apparel companies globally [1][2]. Financial Performance - Since its IPO in 2006, Lululemon's stock has increased approximately 1,800%, with over 300% growth in the last decade, although it has recently faced challenges, dropping 48% from its peak [2]. - In the first quarter, comparable sales growth slowed to 1%, with revenue rising 7% to $2.37 billion, matching estimates [3]. - Gross margin improved from 57.7% to 58.3%, but operating income only rose 1% to $438.6 million, with operating margin declining by 110 basis points to 18.5% due to increased expenses [3]. - Earnings per share increased from $2.54 to $2.60, slightly surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.59 [4]. Guidance and Challenges - The company maintained its full-year revenue guidance at $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion, indicating a 6% growth at the midpoint, but reduced its earnings-per-share guidance from $14.95-$15.15 to $14.58-$14.78 due to tariff impacts [6]. - Second-quarter guidance also fell short, with expectations of a 160 basis point decline in operating margin, affecting earnings per share [7]. Growth Opportunities - Despite slowing growth in North America, Lululemon sees significant potential in China, where revenue increased by 21% with 7% comparable sales growth in the first quarter, accounting for 13% of total revenue last year [8][9]. - The company currently operates 154 stores in China, representing 20% of its total, with plans to exceed its initial goal of 200 stores [10]. Investment Perspective - The challenges posed by tariffs are consistent with those faced by other retailers in the apparel sector, suggesting that they may not be a major concern for investors [11]. - Following the guidance cut and subsequent stock sell-off, Lululemon trades at a forward P/E of 18, which is considered attractive given its brand strength and growth potential in China [12].

一、财报核心信息回顾 | | | | | | | | Lululemon 1Q25Financial Performance | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (in US$100 million) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Calendar Year | | 4Q22A | 1Q23A | 2Q23A | 3Q23A | 4Q23A | 1Q24A | 2Q24A | 3Q24A | 4Q24A | 1Q25A | Consensus | A vs Cons | | Overview | Total Revenue | 27.7 | 20.0 | 22.1 | 22.0 | 32.1 | 22.1 | 23.7 | 24.0 | 36.1 | 23.7 | 23.6 | 0.5% | | | VOV | 30.2% | 24.0% | 18.2% | 18.7% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 7.3% ...

尽管市场情绪回暖，部分分析师仍对关税影响保持警惕，认为其后续仍可能影响就业、通胀及企业盈 利。雷蒙德詹姆斯公司首席投资官Larry Adam指出，虽然第一季度财报表现亮眼，今年余下时间的盈利 预期在过去几周内有所下调。 在投资者逐步摆脱年初关税恐慌与衰退担忧的背景下，标普500指数周五强劲上涨1%，收报6000.36 点，为2月21日以来首次站上6000点整数关口。这一关键心理关口的突破，也为指数向历史高位发起冲 击奠定了基础。 标普500距离今年2月19日创下的历史最高收盘点位6144.15点仅差2.3%。StoneX全球市场研究主管 Matthew Weller表示："这一关口无疑是市场过去八个月来一直难以企稳的心理门槛。" 回顾走势，今年2月创下历史新高后，标普500随即进入回调阶段，至4月8日一度从高位回落近20%，逼 近技术性熊市的门槛。然而，随着投资者重新评估经济前景，市场开始强劲反弹，不仅收复了因关税政 策而在4月录得的全部跌幅，还接近突破6000点大关。周四盘中一度触及5999.70点的高位，但未能站 稳；直到周五，在5月就业数据带来提振下，指数才成功突破这一关键点位，盘中最高上探至6016. ...

智通财经APP获悉，近日，Lululemon(LULU.US)举办FY25Q1财报电话会。Lululemon在会上表示，从全 年来看，公司指引的利润率较之前下降了 160 个基点，主要与关税的净影响以及折扣的小幅增加有关。 在缓解关税影响方面，一是定价，公司计划对部分商品进行战略性提价，提价商品占比小且幅度适中； 二是采购，正在采取一些效率提升措施，部分措施会在今年下半年产生影响，也会持续关注到 2026 年。 在新品品类趋势上，新品在生活方式和运动活动方面的引入和更新表现均衡。生活方式方面，一季度推 出的 daydrift 长裤很受欢迎，几乎在所有门店售罄，9 月将有更多款式补货；运动活动方面，Loup 受到 好评，销量持续增长，且公司在不断拓展其颜色和款式。 Q&A Q：对于今年剩余时间的业绩指引以及二季度面临的压力，公司有哪些缓解措施，比如提价、多元化采 购等，应该如何看待这些措施？美国业务在新品方面有哪些品类趋势，新系列的早期销售情况如何？ A：从全年来看，公司指引的利润率较之前下降了 160 个基点，主要与关税的净影响以及折扣的小幅增 加有关。在缓解关税影响方面，一是定价，公司计划对部分商品进行战略 ...