Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is showing a cautious attitude towards further interest rate cuts, with officials expressing concerns about inflation risks and limited room for additional easing after the recent rate cut [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Musalem supports the recent rate cut but believes further easing is limited unless inflation risks do not increase [1][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic does not see a need for further rate cuts this year, citing concerns about prolonged high inflation [1][3][4]. - Cleveland Fed President Hammack emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy to avoid overheating the economy, expressing significant worries about inflation [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Bostic predicts the core inflation rate will rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by year-end, with unemployment slightly increasing to 4.5% [3][4]. - Hammack notes that inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for four consecutive years and may remain elevated in the coming years [5]. - Musalem highlights that while tariffs have not had the expected impact on prices, other factors are pushing inflation higher, necessitating continued vigilance from the Fed [5]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Bostic acknowledges that while there are risks to the labor market, he does not believe it is currently in crisis, attributing some hiring slowdowns to labor supply constraints [4]. - Hammack points out that despite recent employment growth slowing, the labor market remains strong, as evidenced by low layoff numbers and a low unemployment rate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is showing a cautious attitude towards further interest rate cuts, with officials expressing concerns about inflation risks and limited room for additional easing after the recent rate cut [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem supports the recent rate cut but believes that further easing is limited unless inflation risks do not increase [1][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic shares a similar cautious stance, indicating that he sees no reason for further cuts this year due to concerns about prolonged high inflation [1][3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Musalem describes the recent rate cut as a preventive measure to support the labor market and prevent further weakness, while emphasizing the need for caution in monetary policy [3]. - Bostic predicts that core inflation will rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by the end of the year, with a slight increase in unemployment to 4.5% [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Both officials mention the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, with Musalem noting that while tariff effects have been less than expected, other factors are pushing inflation higher [5]. - Bostic observes that the cost increases driven by tariffs have been milder than initially predicted, but warns that these buffers may diminish in the coming months, leading to sustained price pressures [5].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the second week of September, on the production side, in the industrial sector, freight volume remained high, daily coal consumption and coal prices continued to decline, and hydropower slightly replaced thermal power, but the overall industry operating rate increased, with improvements in coking, refinery, chemical, and automotive industries. In the construction industry, cement demand recovered while supply was low, black - market supply and demand were weak, the base supported the year - on - year supply data, and inventory continued to rise, with the absolute level exceeding that of last year. In the real estate sector, new home sales decreased month - on - month, while second - hand home sales improved month - on - month, and the year - on - year figure turned positive and then remained stable, with the market heating up compared to last month, and second - tier cities being relatively stronger in terms of structure, but housing prices still needed to stabilize. In terms of external demand, throughput year - on - year remained high, while freight rates decreased month - on - month but improved year - on - year. In the consumption sector, travel demand remained strong, while automobile consumption declined slightly. In terms of prices, crude oil was significantly affected by supply - side disruptions, black - series prices showed differentiation, and the rising expectation of US interest rate cuts supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Consumption - Travel demand remained at a high level, with subway ridership and congestion delay index both decreasing, and flight operation rates lower than last year. Automobile consumption declined slightly, textile consumption improved, and express package collection volume remained high. In terms of policies, Hubei Province launched a 100 - million - yuan retail and catering consumption voucher program, Guangdong Province launched a 20 - million - yuan cultural and tourism subsidy program, and Jiayuguan City in Gansu Province launched a consumer voucher program covering multiple fields [6][9]. 2. Real Estate - New home sales decreased month - on - month and were basically flat year - on - year, with third - tier cities leading in terms of structure. Second - hand home sales increased month - on - month, and overall second - hand home sales improved after the relaxation of purchase restrictions, but the recovery in first - tier cities needed further observation. Second - hand home listing volume increased while prices decreased. The land market premium rate rebounded from a low level, and land transaction volume remained low. Last week, real estate policies continued to support demand, such as new policies in Shenzhen and subsidy policies in Hangzhou [3][10][12]. 3. Production - The overall industrial operating rate increased. In the power sector, coal consumption decreased, hydropower increased, and coal prices declined. In the construction industry, construction funds decreased year - on - year, cement demand was stronger than supply, black - market supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rate increased year - on - year. Freight volume remained high, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries mostly increased [7][13][16]. 4. External Demand - Port throughput remained resilient. Freight rates showed differentiation, with the year - on - year growth rate of the RJ/CRB index decreasing, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rising, and international shipping rates weakening. The CCFI and SCFI indices both decreased month - on - month, but the year - on - year figures improved. South Korea's exports in the first 10 days of September increased year - on - year, and Vietnam's exports in August remained resilient. In the overseas economy, the US CPI in August rose to 2.9%, the employment market continued to cool, and the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut increased. The Eurozone decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged. The domestic import freight rate (CDFI) increased month - on - month [4][17][18]. 5. Prices - Iron ore, coke, glass, and non - ferrous metal prices increased, while crude oil and rebar prices decreased. The agricultural product index and the domestic Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased, while the external RJ/CRB index decreased [5][20].

Core Insights - RH's shares declined after the company reported a significant revenue miss in its second-quarter earnings and reduced its full-year revenue outlook [1][2] - The company is facing an additional $30 million impact on its forecast due to tariffs, despite having maintained its full-year forecast just three months prior [1][2] Revenue Outlook - RH now anticipates full-year revenues to increase by 9% to 11%, down from a previous estimate of 10% to 13% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA margins are now expected to be between 19% to 20%, reduced from earlier estimates of 20% to 21% [2] Financial Performance - The reported revenue for the second quarter was $899 million, which fell short of Wall Street's expectations of $905 million [2] - The introduction of the Fall Interiors Sourcebook has been delayed by approximately two months as the company awaits final pricing based on tariff announcements [2] Revenue Shift - The CEO indicated that approximately $40 million in revenues is expected to shift from Q3 to Q4 and Q1 2026 [3]

Core Insights - Inflation has shown a moderate increase, with the August CPI year-on-year growth rising to 2.9%, and the core CPI remaining stable at 3.1% [4][15] - The increase in energy and food prices has been offset by a decrease in core services and an increase in core goods [4][15] Inflation Trends - The CPI for energy has rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2% in August, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Gasoline prices have seen a reduced decline of -6.6% year-on-year, while electricity prices have increased by 6.2% [5] Core Goods Analysis - The year-on-year growth rate for core goods has risen to 1.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [7] - Significant price increases have been observed in used cars, which saw a year-on-year growth of 6%, and new cars, which increased by 0.7% [7] Core Services Overview - The year-on-year growth rate for core services has remained stable at 3.6%, with a slight decrease in the month-on-month growth rate to 0.3% [9] - The owner’s equivalent rent has decreased to a growth rate of 4%, indicating a cooling trend in housing inflation [9] Long-term Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for one year have risen to 4.8%, while five-year expectations have increased to 3.5% [12] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 8.4% and demand increased by 13.7% in Q2 2025, despite challenges from tariff uncertainties and a weak housing market [4] - On a two-year basis, revenues increased by 12% and demand increased by 21%, indicating significant market share gains [4] - Net income rose by 79%, with free cash flow generated amounting to $81 million in the quarter [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gallery demand in RH England surged by 76% in Q2, while online demand increased by 34% [5] - The gallery in the English countryside is projected to reach approximately $37 million to $39 million in demand in 2025 [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong demand trends in Europe, particularly with the opening of RH Paris, which has exceeded traffic expectations compared to RH New York [13] - The company anticipates that the opening of additional galleries in London and Milan will further enhance brand awareness and revenue potential in Europe [21][76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its global presence, with plans to open four additional design galleries in 2025 [20] - The strategy includes creating immersive physical experiences that blend residential and retail spaces, enhancing customer engagement [19] - The company is also shifting sourcing out of China, with a significant portion of upholstered furniture expected to be produced in the U.S. by the end of fiscal 2025 [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the potential impact of tariffs and inflation on the industry, noting that strong brands may benefit from market dislocation while smaller companies may struggle [14][24] - The company revised its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting revenue growth of 9% to 11% and adjusted operating margins of 13% to 14% [18] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a long-term view and separating signal from noise in a challenging economic environment [22][24] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a significant transformation in its product offerings, which has led to inefficiencies in inventory management but is expected to improve over time [62] - The company is optimistic about the potential for future growth, particularly in the luxury furniture market, despite current economic challenges [24][59] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is real estate monetization still something the company would pursue? - Management indicated that they are opportunistic regarding real estate and do not see a current need to pursue monetization, but they recognize the value of their real estate holdings [29][30][40] Question: How much room is there for continued reduction in net inventory? - Management discussed the potential for inventory reduction, noting that they have historically achieved higher turnover rates and expect to improve efficiency as they move past product transformation challenges [62][63] Question: What are the revenue expectations for the new brand extension? - Management expressed confidence in the upcoming brand extension, stating that it is a significant opportunity and they plan to launch it alongside new galleries in key markets [66][67]

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, up from 2.7% in July [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-on-year in August [1] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.4% in August, significantly higher than the 0.2% growth in July [1] Economic Context - The rise in core goods prices, influenced by tariffs, contributed to the strong monthly increase in the CPI [1] - Analysts believe that current economic data, including slowing job growth, is unlikely to alter market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 of fiscal 2025, consolidated net sales were $403 million, down from $420 million in Q2 of fiscal 2024, aligning with guidance of $395 million-$415 million [5] - Adjusted gross margin contracted by 160 basis points to 61.7%, impacted by approximately $9 million in increased cost of goods sold due to tariffs [5] - Adjusted operating profit was $28 million, representing a 7% operating margin, compared to $57 million and a 13.5% margin in the prior year [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lilly Pulitzer experienced a low single-digit positive comp, while total sales were down modestly due to lower wholesale sales [5] - Tommy Bahama faced a high single-digit negative comp, with performance particularly weak in Florida, but improvements were noted in the West [5][4] - Johnny Was continued to face challenges, with low double-digit negative comps, prompting a comprehensive plan for performance improvement [4] - Emerging Brands Group showed solid revenue growth, driven by new stores and positive comp store sales [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in full-price brick-and-mortar locations decreased by 6%, with a negative comp of 7%, partially offset by new store openings [5] - E-commerce sales declined by 2%, while outlet locations saw a 4% decrease [5] - Food and beverage locations performed better, showing modest year-over-year sales growth [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating tariff exposure through supply chain shifts and early product deliveries [4] - Long-term investments are ongoing, including the Lyons, Georgia distribution center, expected to be operational by late fiscal 2025 or early fiscal 2026 [4] - The company aims to enhance brand storytelling and marketing, particularly for Johnny Was, to re-establish momentum [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains pressured, characterized by higher tariffs and cautious consumer behavior [3] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to navigate challenges and maintain brand strength, with a focus on execution and customer happiness [3] - For the remainder of fiscal 2025, net sales are expected between $1.475 billion and $1.515 billion, reflecting a decline of 3% to slightly negative compared to fiscal 2024 [6] Other Important Information - The company anticipates a gross margin contraction of approximately 200 basis points for fiscal 2025, primarily due to tariffs [6] - Adjusted EPS is expected to be between $2.80 and $3.20, down from $6.68 in the previous year [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the positive comparable store sales performance? - Management noted that all brands contributed positively, with Lilly Pulitzer showing strong performance and Tommy Bahama improving from previous quarters, primarily driven by increased traffic [9] Question: How are promotions being planned for the back half of the year? - Promotions will follow historical patterns, with adjustments made as necessary, and a focus on maintaining price and brand integrity [10][11] Question: How are pricing strategies evolving in response to tariffs? - The company is implementing selective price increases on an item-by-item basis, with a focus on covering gross margin dollars without overextending [20] Question: What is the outlook for wholesale partnerships? - Strong relationships with wholesale partners are emphasized, with positive feedback on pricing strategies, indicating potential for consumer acceptance [28] Question: What are the expectations for capital expenditures in fiscal 2026 and beyond? - After completing the Lyons project, ongoing capital expenditures are expected to be around $75 million, depending on store openings [64]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - For FY2025Q2 (May 5, 2025 - August 3, 2025), the company achieved revenue of $2.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, which was slightly below market expectations (Bloomberg consensus expected $2.54 billion). The gross margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 58.5%, primarily due to increased discounts and tariffs leading to a 0.7 percentage point decline in product profit margins. The SG&A expense ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points, dragging down the net profit margin by 1.9 percentage points to 14.7% [2][5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region showed that Greater China continued to experience high growth, while North America saw a slowdown. In FY2025Q2, revenue in the U.S./Canada/North America/Greater China grew by -0.5%/+1%/+1%/+24% year-on-year, with Greater China benefiting from continuous store openings and increased brand awareness. The U.S. market faced pressure mainly due to weak demand in the high-end apparel sector. By channel, offline/e-commerce revenue grew by +3%/+9% year-on-year, with offline revenue growth slowing and e-commerce maintaining good growth [10] Inventory Situation - Inventory continued to grow, with an expected slowdown in inventory growth in FY2026Q1. By the end of FY2025Q2, the company's inventory increased by 21% year-on-year to $1.72 billion. The increase in inventory was mainly due to excess seasonal stock, and the company aims to clear this stock before the end of the year. It is anticipated that inventory growth will be low double digits in FY2025Q3, with overall inventory growth maintained, and a slowdown in inventory growth expected in FY2026Q1 [10] Tariff Impact - Tariffs have negatively impacted gross margins and operating profit margins. The company plans to mitigate the impact of tariffs through cost control, pricing adjustments, and negotiations with suppliers [10] Performance Guidance - The company has lowered its full-year guidance, now expecting FY2025 revenue to be between $10.85 billion and $11.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2% to 4% (previous guidance was $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion, with Bloomberg consensus expecting $11.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%). Revenue in North America is expected to decline by 1% to remain flat, while revenue in China is projected to grow by 20% to 25%. The full-year gross margin is expected to decrease by 3 percentage points, with EPS revised down to between $12.77 and $12.97. For FY2025Q3, revenue is expected to be between $2.47 billion and $2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3% to 4%, with gross margin expected to decrease by 4.1 percentage points [10]