Summary of the Conference Call on US-China Trade Talks Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Trade relations between the United States and China - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Key Points and Arguments Trade Negotiations Overview - The third round of trade negotiations between China and the US took place in Stockholm on July 28-29, 2025, following previous meetings in Geneva and London. The meeting was described as "very constructive" but did not yield significant breakthroughs or concrete outcomes [2][3][4] Tariff Truce and Future Meetings - A tariff truce announced after the Geneva talks is set to expire on August 12, 2025, but is likely to be extended pending President Trump's approval. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that a 90-day extension is a possibility, suggesting a potential summit between President Trump and President Xi in November 2025 [2][4] Economic Developments and Trade Imbalances - Discussions included updates on economic developments in both countries, efforts to reduce bilateral trade imbalances, and the implementation of previous agreements, particularly concerning China's rare earth exports to the US and US technology export controls [3][6] Tariff Rates and Projections - The US average effective tariff rate is projected to rise to 18-20%, up from 13.4% at the beginning of the year. New general tariff rates of 15% for the EU and Japan and a 20% ceiling for ASEAN were mentioned, with ongoing negotiations with Korea, India, and Taiwan [5][6] Impact on China's Economic Outlook - The outcome of trade negotiations and tariffs is crucial for China's economic outlook in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. The current tariff rate of 42% on Chinese imports is expected to remain stable, although sector-specific tariffs may increase due to ongoing investigations [6][8] Global Trade Dynamics - The US's trade negotiations with other partners could negatively impact China if higher tariffs reduce US import demand. However, if the increase in tariffs on China is smaller than those on other trading partners, the impact on Chinese imports may be less severe than anticipated [9][10] Multilateral Trade Relationships - China's trade relationships with non-US partners are becoming increasingly important as the US adopts a unilateral trade approach. There are calls for trade multilateralism, but concerns about China's manufacturing dominance complicate these efforts [10][11] Risks and Uncertainties - While the worst of the tariff shocks may be over, trade uncertainty remains a significant risk for the Chinese economy. The Chinese government's response to external uncertainties and domestic challenges will be critical [11] Other Important Content - The document includes contact information for analysts involved in the research, emphasizing the independence of the research team and the importance of compliance with regulatory standards [7][25][57]

Group 1 - Taxpayers in China are required to declare and pay taxes on overseas income from stock trading, as there are no tax exemptions for such income according to the personal income tax law [1] - Shanghai has issued measures to support enterprises in enhancing basic research, aiming to attract more companies in integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence to join the "Explorer Program" [2] - Significant progress has been made in HIV vaccine research in China, with the completion of the first phase clinical trial of a replicating Tian Tan smallpox vaccine vector HIV vaccine [3] Group 2 - In July 2025, A-share new accounts reached 1.96 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 71% compared to July 2024, and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [4] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units in July, marking a year-on-year growth of 25% but a month-on-month decline of 4% [6] - Companies such as Fengli Intelligent and Lvtong Technology are planning to raise funds through private placements and acquisitions, indicating active capital market activities [7][8] Group 3 - Guizhou Moutai has repurchased a total of 3.45 million shares, with a total payment of 5.301 billion yuan [10] - The net profit of Shangwei New Materials for the first half of the year is expected to be 29.9 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.91% [10] - The net profit of Haowei Group is projected to increase by 39% to 50% year-on-year for the first half of the year [10] Group 4 - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation plans to absorb China Shipbuilding, which may lead to the termination of the latter's stock listing [12] - The U.S. President has indicated plans to increase tariffs on India due to its oil trade practices, which could impact international trade dynamics [13] - The Federal Reserve's comments suggest potential interest rate cuts, which could influence market conditions and investment strategies [14]

美国总统特朗普在社交平台发文称，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分在公开市场上转 售，赚取巨额利润。特朗普表示，将大幅提高印度向美国支付的关税。 ...

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, with materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials down 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - The yield on 10-year bonds in other developed markets also fell, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly declined, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52]

Group 1 - The European Union will suspend two countermeasures against U.S. tariffs within six months based on an agreement reached with the U.S. [1] - The U.S. and EU have agreed on a trade deal that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. [1] - The EU is expected to increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1] Group 2 - The trade agreement is anticipated to provide stability to the market, according to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [1] - The agreement will maintain the current tariffs on steel and aluminum, with energy being a key component of the deal [1] - The deal is expected to have significant impacts on the automotive and agricultural sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreement between the EU and the US, highlighting the suspension of certain tariffs and the implications for various industries, particularly automotive and energy sectors [1]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The EU will suspend two countermeasures against US tariffs within six months as part of the agreement [1]. - The US will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, with the EU expected to increase investments in the US by $600 billion [1]. - The agreement includes significant purchases of US military equipment and energy products valued at $750 billion [1]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The trade agreement is expected to stabilize the market and will have a major impact on the automotive industry [1]. - The energy sector is identified as a key component of the agreement, with a focus on US energy product purchases [1]. - The agreement will also affect the agricultural sector significantly [1]. Group 3: Additional Context - US President Trump criticized India's oil purchasing practices from Russia and indicated plans to raise tariffs on Indian imports [1].

当地时间8月4日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体发文表示，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大 部分石油在公开市场上出售，牟取暴利。特朗普表示，他将大幅提高印度向美国缴纳的关税。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs imposed on India, which may impact trade relations and market dynamics [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The proposed tariff increase could lead to heightened tensions between the U.S. and India, affecting bilateral trade agreements [1] - The announcement comes in the context of India's imports of Russian oil, indicating a geopolitical angle to the tariff discussions [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, an Indian ETF listed in the U.S. experienced a decline, dropping from $52.90 to $52.48, reflecting a shift from a 0.34% gain to a 0.44% loss within the trading day [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (7.28-8.1) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油先扬后抑，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶67.26美元，周涨2.85%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶69.52美 元，周涨1.65%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶513元，周涨0.02%。周初，美国总统特朗普表示将把原先给俄罗斯的俄乌停火最后期限提前，按照 新的期限，俄罗斯需要在10天内与乌克兰达成停火协议，特朗普称，若俄罗斯未能与乌克兰达成停火协议，美国可能会对其施加经济惩罚，其 中包括对进口俄罗斯能源的国家施加二级制裁。与此同时，周内特朗普已宣布自8月1日起对印度进口商品征收25%关税， ...

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, particularly materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials, which dropped 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - Other developed countries also saw declines in their 10-year bond yields, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly fell, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27][39] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45][46] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52][58] Group 6 - The US economy's Q2 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.6%, but internal demand showed signs of weakness [73] - Consumer spending in Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, below the expected 1.5% [73] - The overall GDP growth was primarily driven by net exports, indicating a potential end to the trend of "importing" [73] Group 7 - The US added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the expected 104,000, with previous months' job additions revised down significantly [76] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, below the anticipated 7.5 million [76]