Core Viewpoint - In October, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0%, reflecting a decline influenced by pre-holiday demand release and a complex international environment [1][2]. Group 1: PMI and Production Indices - The production index and new orders index for October were reported at 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, showing declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises was recorded at 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, indicating decreases of 1.1, 0.1, and 1.1 percentage points, respectively [1]. - Large enterprises maintained production and new orders indices at 50.9% and 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months [1]. Group 2: Industry Performance - Three key industries—high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods—sustained expansion with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively [1]. - The production activity expectation index stood at 52.8%, indicating a continued optimistic outlook among most manufacturing enterprises [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The construction of a unified national market is progressing, leading to positive changes in market prices, with the equipment manufacturing purchase and factory price indices rising for three consecutive months [2]. - Despite a slight slowdown in production activities in October, new growth drivers and consumer goods manufacturing showed steady growth, providing a solid foundation for macroeconomic stability [2].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report Title: "Bottom Range, Continuous Fluctuation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [3] Group 2: Report Structure - The report includes three parts: market review, fundamental analysis, and future outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This part presents the price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports [10] - **Mid - stream**: It includes the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and the import volume of ferronickel and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, etc [12][14][16] - **Downstream**: It covers the price, position, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles [18][25][27] Group 5: Future Outlook - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed Chairman Powell said the employment and inflation outlook in the US "seem not to have changed much", and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, which will provide more space for China's domestic monetary policy. China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing an improving manufacturing climate [32] - **Market Trends**: Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. The premium and discount of refined nickel brands were stable with average trading. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the supply in the Indonesian market was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate rebounded recently, but its medium - term trend remains to be seen. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. It is expected that the operating range of the main Shanghai nickel contract will be approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main stainless - steel contract will be about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [32]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guosen Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report date: October 12, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The US Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes suggest that most participants believe further monetary policy easing is appropriate this year, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week with no obvious trend. Refined nickel demand remains weak. Nickel ore circulation in the coastal areas of the Philippines has slowed due to weather, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia has a relatively loose supply. The high - frequency data of nickel sulfate shows a recent price rebound, but whether it can change the weak situation in the medium term remains to be seen. In the stainless - steel market, steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,200 to 13,300 yuan/ton [36]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [7][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream: China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the historical data of China's nickel ore port inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13]. 2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - The historical price data of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) are presented, without specific analysis [14][15]. 2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - The historical average price data of nickel sulfate in China are shown, without specific analysis [16][17]. 2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The historical monthly import volume data of ferronickel in China and the Fubao price data of 8 - 12% ferronickel are presented, without specific analysis [18][19]. 2.5 Downstream: Stainless - Steel Market - Stainless - steel price: The historical closing price data of stainless - steel futures are shown, without specific analysis [20][21]. - Stainless - steel futures positions: The historical position data of stainless - steel futures are presented, without specific analysis [22][23]. - Wuxi stainless - steel inventory: The historical inventory data of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel are shown, without specific analysis [25][26]. 2.6 Downstream: Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - The historical monthly production data of China's power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production data are presented, without specific analysis [28][29]. 2.7 Downstream: New - Energy Vehicle Production - The historical monthly production data of China's new - energy vehicles are shown, without specific analysis [30][31]. 3. Future Outlook - In the US, inflation data is in line with expectations, employment data is lower than expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year. In China, the manufacturing PMI continues to improve, indicating a consolidation of the economic recovery momentum in the third quarter [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market is oscillating, refined nickel demand is weak, the supply situation of upstream nickel ore varies, the nickel sulfate price has rebounded recently, and the stainless - steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts are given [36].

Group 1 - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in September, indicating a return to recession and highlighting insufficient economic recovery momentum [1] - Germany's composite PMI rose to 52.4, surpassing analyst expectations, with services PMI reaching an 8-month high of 52.5, while manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5, the lowest in four months [1] - France's manufacturing PMI declined to 48.1, and the composite PMI fell to 48.4, marking the fastest contraction since May, reflecting instability linked to domestic political uncertainty [2] Group 2 - The Eurozone's overall composite PMI for September was 51.2, indicating resilience in the services sector, but market sentiment remains low with deteriorating overseas orders [2] - Multiple factors contribute to the manufacturing sector's challenges, including trade tensions, rising energy costs, and a slowdown in global economic growth [3] - The decline in manufacturing is expected to ease commodity inflation pressures but increases the risk of economic slowdown, with the European Central Bank facing a delicate balance between preventing recession and avoiding excessive easing [4]

Core Insights - The Asian manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2025 stands at 50.9%, remaining stable compared to the previous month and marking five consecutive months above 50 [1] - The average PMI for Asian manufacturing in Q3 is 50.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from Q2 [1] - China's manufacturing PMI has shown a continuous month-on-month increase for two months, with a larger growth rate compared to the previous month [1] - India's manufacturing PMI has decreased from the previous month but remains above 57 [1] - Among ASEAN countries, Thailand and Myanmar have seen significant increases in their manufacturing PMIs, both above 53, while Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore are slightly above 50, and the Philippines and Malaysia are below 50 [1] - Japan and South Korea's manufacturing PMIs have shown mixed results, with one declining and the other increasing, with Japan below 50 and South Korea above 50 [1] - Overall, the Asian economy is experiencing stable expansion in Q3, with stronger growth momentum compared to Q2, and demonstrating greater resilience than Europe, the Americas, and Africa [1] - Policy support for economic recovery from major Asian countries is robust, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has played a significant role in enhancing regional trade cooperation [1] - The global manufacturing PMI for September 2025 is at 49.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - On September 30, LME copper prices declined as traders took profits after reaching a 15-month high, with three-month copper down by $145.5, or 1.4%, closing at $10,268.5 per ton [1] - The copper price increased by 4% in the third quarter, influenced by the suspension of operations at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, leading analysts to lower supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The LME spot copper premium narrowed from $73 per ton to $28 per ton, reflecting reduced supply expectations due to Grasberg's operational pause [3] Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - The Yangshan copper premium, indicating China's copper import demand, fell by 6% to a six-week low of $50 per ton, as trading activity is expected to be limited during China's National Day holiday from October 1 to 8 [3] - China's manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [3] Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum prices increased by $1.5, or 0.06%, while zinc prices rose by $19.5, or 0.66% [2] - Three-month lead prices decreased by $6.5, or 0.33%, with Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventories dropping by 15% to the lowest level since February [4] - Three-month tin prices fell by $80, or 0.23%, closing at $35,410.0 per ton, despite reaching a high of $35,510 on April 4 [4]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is reported at 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing activity [1][6][7] Manufacturing Activity - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, suggesting active manufacturing production [6][7] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a modest improvement in market demand [6][7] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.0%, while medium and small enterprises reported PMIs of 48.8% and 48.2%, respectively, indicating varying levels of activity across different enterprise sizes [6] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods showed PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6%, respectively, all above the manufacturing average, indicating robust activity [9] - The consumer goods sector has returned above the threshold line, reaching its highest level this year [2][9] Inventory and Pricing - The raw materials inventory index is at 48.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a continued reduction in inventory levels, albeit at a slower pace [10] - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing profit margin for manufacturers [9][10] Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectations index has risen for three consecutive months, now at 54.1%, indicating improved confidence among manufacturers regarding market conditions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in September rose to 49.8%, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing activity [1][4]. - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, while the new orders index rose to 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement in market demand [1][5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods showed strong expansion, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [6]. - The consumer goods sector has returned above the threshold line, achieving its highest level this year [2][6]. Group 3: Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index improved to 48.5%, indicating a better employment situation in manufacturing, while the raw materials inventory index rose to 48.5%, suggesting a slowdown in inventory reduction [4][7]. - The production expectations index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 54.1%, showing a positive outlook among manufacturers for upcoming market conditions [7]. Group 4: Price Dynamics - The purchasing price index for raw materials was at 53.2%, indicating a slight decrease but still in the expansion zone, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, suggesting a contraction in output prices [6]. - The gap between raw material purchasing prices and factory prices widened to 5.0 percentage points, indicating a shrinking profit margin for manufacturers [6].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for September is reported at 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, suggesting continued improvement in manufacturing activity [1][3]. Manufacturing Activity - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month, marking a six-month high, indicating active manufacturing production [1][4]. - The new orders index is at 49.7%, reflecting a slight improvement in market demand, increasing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][4]. Industry Performance - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods have PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average, indicating robust activity in these sectors [1][4][5]. - The consumer goods sector has returned above the threshold, reaching its highest level this year [2][5]. Employment and Supply Chain - The employment index stands at 48.5%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating improved hiring conditions in the manufacturing sector [3][5]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.8%, suggesting that the delivery times for raw materials are improving [3]. Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating that upstream prices are still rising but at a slower pace [5]. - The factory price index is at 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating that factory prices remain below the threshold, with a faster decline [5]. Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectations index has risen for three consecutive months, now at 54.1%, indicating a positive outlook among manufacturers [5][6]. - Industries such as agricultural processing, automotive, and aerospace have high confidence levels, with expectation indices above 57.0% [6].

Core Points - In September, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in production activities and continued improvement in economic conditions [1][2] - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, while the new orders index was at 49.7%, reflecting a slight improvement in market demand [1][2] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.0%, indicating stable expansion, while medium-sized enterprises had a PMI of 48.8%, showing a slight decline, and small enterprises improved to 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points [1] - Key industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace equipment showed production and new orders indices above 54.0%, indicating rapid release of supply and demand [1][2] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors experienced faster expansion, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all significantly above the overall manufacturing PMI [2] - The production expectation index for September was 54.1%, indicating a positive outlook among manufacturing enterprises for recent market developments, with specific industries like food processing and automotive showing strong confidence [2]