Core Viewpoint - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity compared to the previous month [1] Summary by Category Overall PMI - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing sentiment [1] By Enterprise Size - Large enterprises' PMI stands at 50.3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from last month, remaining above the critical point [1] - Medium enterprises' PMI is at 49.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month, but still below the critical point [1] - Small enterprises' PMI is at 46.4%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from last month, remaining below the critical point [1] Component Indices - Among the five component indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index are below the critical point [1] - The production index is at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [1] - The new orders index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, suggesting a slowdown in market demand for manufacturing [1] - The raw material inventory index is at 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating a continued decrease in major raw material inventories in manufacturing [1] - The employment index is at 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating a slight recovery in employment conditions within manufacturing [1] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that the delivery times from raw material suppliers continue to accelerate [1]

Group 1 - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The production index stands at 50.5%, indicating a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] - The main raw materials purchasing price index is at 51.5%, which reflects an increase of 3.1 percentage points [1] - The production and business activity expectation index is recorded at 52.6%, showing an increase of 0.6 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Breakdown - The production index stands at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, while the new orders index is at 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in market demand [2] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the employment index is at 48.0%, which has increased by 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, suggesting stable supply chain conditions [1] Group 2: Price and Demand Trends - The price index has risen, with the main raw materials purchasing price index at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, and the factory price index at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - Large enterprises maintain expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, and their production and new orders indices are at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, both remaining in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The production activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [2] - The ongoing implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as urban renewal and consumption subsidies, is expected to support steady recovery in investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the stock index dropped with heavy trading volume, and the decline of the large - cap stock index was greater. The main reasons for the market decline were the hawkish remarks of Powell at the Fed's July meeting, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, increasing external pressure, and the release of the July manufacturing PMI by the National Bureau of Statistics, which was lower than the previous month and lower than expected. Under the double negative impacts at home and abroad, the stock index declined overall. From the perspective of futures indicators, the volume - weighted average basis of all contracts except IH decreased slightly. The overall sentiment turned pessimistic, and the correction was expected to continue. If the index continued to fall, it was recommended that long - position holders take profit and exit [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index declined collectively on this day. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.82%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 91.756 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM dropped with heavy trading volume, while the other varieties dropped with shrinking volume [4]. Important Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected. He also mentioned that the current interest rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation, and it was still too early to judge the impact of tariffs on inflation. - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - If the decline continued, long - position holders could take profit and exit [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.77 | -1.44 | -1.38 | -0.88 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 15.6196 | 7.5925 | 11.9559 | 26.7774 | | Trading volume month - on - month (10,000 lots) | 1.8165 | 0.4976 | 1.4305 | 3.6495 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0987 | 9.9966 | 22.7163 | 34.8264 | | Open interest month - on - month (10,000 lots) | -0.3716 | -0.3315 | -0.276 | 0.1767 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.18 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.73 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.25 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 19360.35 | | Trading volume month - on - month (100 million yuan) | 917.56 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1][4]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, with production index at 50.5% and new orders index at 49.4%, both showing declines from the previous month [1][4]. - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.7%, indicating a continued reduction in major raw material stocks, while the employment index has slightly increased to 48% [4][5]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, suggesting that the delivery times for raw materials are improving [4]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication electronics are showing active production and new orders, while sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products are underperforming [5][6]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors have PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion [6][7]. Economic Outlook - There is potential for demand recovery, with expectations that economic stabilization policies may be implemented to boost PMI [5][6]. - The price index for major raw materials has risen, with the purchasing price index at 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [6][7]. Inventory and Business Confidence - The finished goods inventory index has decreased to 47.4%, reflecting cautious inventory adjustments by enterprises [7]. - Business confidence is improving, with the production and business activity expectation index rising to 52.6%, indicating a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the manufacturing PMI in China for July 2025 is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The PMI is a key indicator that reflects the economic conditions in the manufacturing sector, covering aspects such as production, orders, and inventory, and is considered a leading indicator for macroeconomic trends [1] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points; medium enterprises saw an increase to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points; while small enterprises reported a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Among the 13 sub-indices, several showed increases compared to the previous month, including the purchasing price index, factory price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and production activity expectation index, with increases ranging from 0.1 to 3.1 percentage points [1] - Conversely, indices such as production, new orders, new export orders, backlog orders, finished goods inventory, purchasing volume, and raw material inventory all declined, with decreases ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points [1] - Despite short-term economic fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains stable, supported by steady domestic demand and manageable declines in the business ecosystem [1]

国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会7月31日发布数据显示，受制造业进入传统生 产淡季以及部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比 上月下降0.4个百分点。 新华社发 宋博 制图 2025年7月份 载国制造业PM为49.3% 国家统计局服务业调查中心、 中国物流与采购联合会7月31日发布数据显示 受制造业进入传统生产淡季以及 部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响 制造业采购经理指数 (PMI) 7月份 49.3% ( 比上月下降0.4个百分点 从重点行业看 50.3% 装备制造业PMI 均持续 高于 50.6% 临界点 高技术制造业PMI ...

Group 1 - In July, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for July were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, indicating a slowdown in market demand despite continued expansion in manufacturing activities [1] - Major raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, while the factory price index was at 48.3% [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI improved to 49.5%, indicating a continued recovery in sentiment [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained PMIs above the critical point at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively [2] - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] - The production index remains in expansion at 50.5%, although it has decreased by 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating continued manufacturing activity [1] - The prices of major raw materials have increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, rising by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises maintain expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month, while their production and new orders indices are at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating a stable operational status [1] - Medium-sized enterprises show improvement with a PMI of 49.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting a better economic outlook [1] - Small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, which is a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating challenges in this segment [1] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs are at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, suggesting sustained growth in these sectors [2] - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a decline in this sector [2] - The production expectation index for July is at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, showing improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [2]