油价调价，今天，2026年1月7日，按照国内成品油调价安排，昨晚24时（今早0时），各地加油站，油价将执行2026年第1次调价后的水平！据悉，昨日，今 年首次调价，计价周期第10个工作日，汽柴油以上涨45元/吨落幕，油价不足上涨标准线，汽柴油兑现搁浅的局面！此次油价搁浅调整后，各地加油站汽柴 油不作调价，油价仍执行2025年末的水平！ 不过，距离调价时间较长，市场不确定性仍然较多，笔者也将继续关注市场的走势，希望，此次油价能兑现降价的走势，对此，大家是如何看待的呢？ 附：全国主流92/95号汽油以及0号柴油价格 | ﮧ | 地区油价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 诺塔时间。 | | 2025-12-23 ✔ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 最近―次调整说明:国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别降低170元和170元 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 地区(車 | ...

热点新知 去年国内油价大跌915元/吨，广州92号汽油价格大跌八毛钱，年底以油价三连跌完美收官。 今年国内油价调整以油价上涨开局，但是没有满足《石油价格管理办法》规定的涨价门槛。 有料财经提醒车主注意，由于距离国内油价调整还有一个交易日，如果国际油价止跌回升，推动国内油价上涨幅度扩大到50元/吨或以上，1月6日24时可能 迎来国内油价 2026年首轮 油价涨幅45元/吨 1月6日 作者：小天 辛苦读者点 赞关注有料财经，及时把握最新油价调整消息和获得专业油价分析内容，摒弃对于国内油价调整规则和油价涨与跌的偏见与误解，大家一起加油。 国际原油市场动态：美国空袭委内瑞拉抓获马杜罗夫妇，今日国际油价冲高回落，布伦特原油期货价格在61美元附近震荡。 2026年国内油价调整时间定了，1月6日24时开启首轮国内成品油调整窗口，三地原油价格平均值波动率收窄至1.08%，国内油价涨幅跌破上涨阈值！ 每吨45元的国内成品油价格涨幅没有满足涨价条件，全国加油站柴油汽油价格不作调整。 世界石油供过于求，国际油价维持弱势震荡偏空格局。 从技术面上看，短期油价均线系统向下发散，RSI指标维持在40附近震荡，显示尚未进入超卖区间。 MA ...

今日凌晨进行了今年第1次油价调整，油价成功搁浅。而新一轮油价调整开局预计下调60元/吨，折合每 升油价下调0.05-0.06元，跌破下调红线，油价下跌中。 总的来说，国际油价仍有下跌可能，美委局势带来的风险溢价逐渐被市场消化，供应过剩担忧情绪再次 占领高地。晚间还有美国EIA原油库存等数据，油价预计还有波动。 本轮油价能否下跌，让我们持续关注~ 本轮油价调整时间：1月20日24时 | 地区 | 92号汽油 | 95号汽油 | 98号汽油 | 0号柴油 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 6.7 | 7.14 | 8.62 | 6.37 | | 上海 | 6.67 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 6.31 | | 江苏 | 6.68 | 7.11 | 9.16 | 6.3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天津 | 6.69 | 7.07 | 8.57 | 6.33 | | 重庆 | 6.78 | 7.16 | 8.65 | 6.41 | | 江西 | 6.67 | 7.16 | 8.66 | 6.38 | | 辽宁 | 6.79 ...

2025年原油价格整体呈现前高后低、重心下移态势，下半年在弱基本面定价下，维持低波运行。 OPEC+与非OPEC+产量共增 OPEC+产量存在增长预期。2025年，OPEC+一季度延续220万桶／天的自愿减产措施，从4月开始逐步 解除减产措施，产量不断增长。2026年一季度考虑到需求疲软，OPEC+暂停增产，预计其提产步伐跟 随淡旺季调整。 地缘风险或间歇扰动油价。2025年11月，沙特、阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特每天原油产量分别为220万 桶、70万桶、40万桶、30万桶。OPEC+闲置产能充裕，在面对意外断供情况时，可以在较短时间内补 足。主要的地缘不确定性在伊朗、俄乌以及委内瑞拉。 回顾2018年美国退出"伊核协议"、2025年年中以伊冲突，对应油价的上涨空间均在13美元／桶左右。 2025年11月，伊朗每天原油产量为322.1万桶。 俄乌方面，2025年1月拜登对俄罗斯的制裁，以及2025年10月美国对俄罗斯两大石油巨头的制裁，对应 油价的上涨空间均在5美元／桶左右。但消息面对油价的影响多为短暂性的。目前，俄乌和平协议的推 进仍需各方磋商，其间原油价格受相关消息扰动。 委内瑞拉在经历长期制裁和经营不善后， ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月6日 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。欧佩克+将于2月1日举行下一次会议。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存减幅超 预期，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量略有增加，仍位于历史最 高位附近，美国钻机数量继续小幅回升。美乌会谈后，特朗普称，各方就结束俄乌冲突取得"非常 大的进展"，相关讨论已覆盖"接近95%的关键议题"，并形容当前进展已达到"非常接近达成协议" 的阶段，并称美乌安全保障安排"接近95%完成"。不过欧盟最新决定将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延 长6个月，至2026年7月31日。特朗普警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能 继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。欧美成品油裂解价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，美国 2025年12月ISM制造业指数小幅下降，已连续10个月低于50，市场仍担忧原油需求，中东地区出口增 加，全球原油浮库高企，伊拉克恢复了卢克石油公司西古尔纳2号油田。叠加俄乌和谈继续取得 ...

▲ATFX图 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月6日，委内瑞拉局势成为本周市场开局的焦点也是关键主题所在，昨日的原油市场经历震荡后尾盘抽 高逾1%，周末美军抓捕委内瑞拉领导人的消息给油价带来了一定的地缘政治风险溢价。周二亚市盘 中，油价在经历了近一周的最大涨幅后趋于稳定，交易员们正在权衡委内瑞拉的前景。 尽管如此，整体市场仍面临原油供应过剩的困境，而委内瑞拉的原油产量仅占全球总产量的一小部分 （仅占全球供应量的不到1% ），这意味着该国出口的任何中断都不太可能对油价产生持续影响。供应 过剩已促使沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调对亚洲的原油价格。 知情人士透露，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特计划本周与石油行业高管商讨振兴委内瑞拉能源产业的方 案，美国总统特朗普曾表示美国可能会为委内瑞拉的能源重建工作提供补贴。消息一度让昨日的油价承 压。 周一，加拿大重质原油价格跌至一年来的最低点，交易员们正在权衡更多受制裁的委内瑞拉石油可能流 入美国墨西哥湾沿岸的可能性。加拿大是全球最大的重质原油生产国，近年来，随着通往墨西哥湾沿岸 的输油管道扩建，当地炼油商得以弥补南美原油供应量的减少，加拿大也因此从委内瑞拉原油产量下降 中获益最多。 而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Middle East oil market is showing signs of weakness, raising concerns about a potential oversupply of global crude oil that could depress prices, while allowing Asian traders to overlook developments in Venezuela [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Dubai benchmark crude's discount to Brent futures reached its widest level since August, indicating ample supply [1]. - The forward curve of Dubai swaps has reverted to a contango structure, characterized by recent contract prices being lower than future contracts, signaling bearish sentiment [1]. - The price differential between spot and Dubai benchmark prices is rapidly narrowing, suggesting weak demand [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The premium for Oman crude, preferred by major importing countries like China, has dropped from nearly $1 per barrel at the end of last month to near parity with Dubai benchmark prices [1]. - The price of UAE's Upper Zakum crude has been set at a discount of $0.35, marking the weakest level since December 2023 [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global crude oil supply has consistently exceeded demand due to increased production from OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries, leading to concerns in the market [5]. - Brent futures fell 18% last year, marking the worst annual performance since 2020, with several banks predicting further declines in oil prices [5]. - Saudi Aramco has lowered prices for its flagship Arab Light crude for the third consecutive month, reaching a five-year low in pricing differentials for major Asian customers [5]. Group 4: Impact of Geopolitical Events - U.S. intervention in Venezuela, including the arrest of Maduro and partial blockade of oil tankers, could have disrupted Venezuelan oil exports, but the ample supply from the Middle East has alleviated such concerns [5]. - Chinese refineries, typically major buyers of Venezuelan crude, have not shown signs of urgently seeking alternatives like Iraqi Basrah crude [5]. Group 5: Sales and Inventory Issues - Approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil scheduled for February shipment remain unsold, including grades like UAE's Upper Zakum and Qatar's Al-Shaheen, which is unusual as such transactions typically conclude by the end of December [6]. - The backlog of unsold oil indicates that Arabian Gulf crude has failed to find buyers for the fourth consecutive month, despite the region's historical ability to sell most of its crude supply [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Middle Eastern crude oil market is showing signs of weakness, raising concerns about global oversupply and its impact on oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Analysts indicate that the Brent-Dubai futures spread has widened to its largest since August of the previous year, signaling ample supply [1] - The Dubai forward curve has returned to a contango structure, indicating a bearish outlook [1] - The narrowing of the spot cargo differential against the Dubai benchmark reflects weak demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oversupply is impacting the Middle Eastern market, with indicators pointing towards a weakening spot market [1] - Asian traders are maintaining a calm stance regarding the situation in Venezuela, suggesting a focus on regional supply dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its flagship crude oil grade for Asia for the third consecutive month due to signs of persistent supply surplus in the market [1] - The price of Arab Light crude oil for February has been set at a premium of $0.30 over the regional benchmark, aligning with trader and refiner expectations [1] - Saudi Aramco has also reduced the prices of all grades of crude oil for other regions, including the US and Europe [1] Group 2 - OPEC and its allies are maintaining their plan to pause production increases in the first quarter, with no discussions on Venezuela during a recent meeting [1] - The International Energy Agency predicts a global oil supply surplus of approximately 3.8 million barrels per day this year [1] - Geopolitical risks, including the war between Ukraine and Russia and US sanctions on Russia and Iran, continue to impact the production outlook for several OPEC+ member countries [2]

Group 1 - The core event is the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife by the U.S. military, marking a shift from economic sanctions to direct regime change efforts, escalating tensions significantly [2][10] - On the first trading day after the New Year holiday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices fell by nearly 1%, while the domestic SC main contract dropped close to 3.4% [2][10] - In contrast, asphalt futures experienced a significant jump, with the main contract rising over 3200 yuan/ton, peaking at a 6.3% increase before closing with a nearly 4% gain [2][10] Group 2 - The domestic futures market showed a divergence between BU and SC, with previous indications suggesting that the U.S.-Venezuela conflict would have limited impact on oil price premiums, failing to reverse the downward trend in oil prices [3][11] - Historical data indicates that the sustained impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices depends on whether they cause large-scale, long-term supply disruptions [3][11] - According to EIA data, Venezuela's oil production is projected to be between 970,000 and 1,040,000 barrels per day by 2025, accounting for only 0.94% to 0.96% of global supply, meaning that even a supply disruption would not significantly drive oil prices higher [3][11] Group 3 - Asphalt emerged as the strongest performer among oil futures due to the U.S. military action on January 3, which severely impacted Venezuelan oil exports and heightened concerns over asphalt raw material supply shortages [5][13] - Venezuela's heavy crude oil has a high asphalt yield of 60% and is favored by Chinese independent refineries due to its low price [5][13] - In 2025, Chinese independent refineries are expected to import approximately 393,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil, with imports typically accounting for 50% to 70% of Venezuela's export volume [5][13]