2025.11. 01 本文字数：780，阅读时长大约1分钟 加拿大皇家银行（RBC）分析师克罗夫特（Helima Croft）在一份报告中预测，除非有明确证据表明原油供应出 现中断，否则沙特及其欧佩克伙伴国不会大幅提高产量。 消息人士透露，目前OPEC+八大成员国沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、阿联酋、伊拉克、科威特、阿曼、哈萨克斯坦和 阿尔及利亚正在考虑再次上调产能13.7万桶/日，同时暂停增产的可能性同样存在。 截至发稿时，欧佩克组织、俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克（Alexander Novak）的办公室，以及沙特政府媒体办公室尚未 对相关报道置评。 微信编辑 | 七三 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。 专用邮箱： bianjibu@yicai.com 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 据媒体援引多位知情人士的话称，由于担心明年原油市场可能出现供应过剩，产油国联盟OPEC+正放缓夺回市 场份额的步伐。该组织很可能在周日达成协议，小幅上调12月的原油产量目标。 自今年4月开始释放限产产能以来，OPEC+已将原油产量目标累计上调逾270万桶/日（约占全球原油供应量的 2.5%）。 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ is slowing down its efforts to regain market share due to concerns about potential oversupply in the oil market next year [1] - The organization is likely to reach an agreement to slightly increase the crude oil production target for December [1] - Since April, OPEC+ has cumulatively raised its crude oil production target by over 2.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 2.5% of global oil supply [1] Group 2 - Disagreements have emerged among key oil-producing countries, particularly between Russia and Saudi Arabia regarding production levels [1] - Russia advocates for a moderate increase in production to avoid downward pressure on oil prices, while Saudi Arabia aims to significantly boost production to reclaim market share [1] - Oil prices fell to a five-month low of $60 per barrel on October 20 due to oversupply concerns but have since recovered to around $65 per barrel [1] Group 3 - RBC analyst Helima Croft predicts that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will not significantly increase production unless there is clear evidence of supply disruptions [2] - OPEC+ members are considering a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day while also contemplating the possibility of pausing further increases [2] - As of the report, there has been no comment from OPEC, Russian officials, or the Saudi government regarding these developments [2]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is slowing down its efforts to regain market share due to concerns about a potential oversupply in the oil market next year, with a likely agreement to slightly increase December's oil production target [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - Since April, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased its oil production target by over 2.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 2.5% of global oil supply [1] - In the recent ministerial meeting, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, although there are differing opinions among member countries [1] - Russia advocates for a moderate increase in production to avoid downward pressure on oil prices, while Saudi Arabia seeks to significantly boost production, potentially doubling or tripling the increase to a maximum of 548,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Concerns over oversupply led to a drop in international oil prices to a five-month low of $60 per barrel on October 20, but prices have since recovered to around $65 per barrel due to sanctions on Russia and optimistic trade negotiations [1] - RBC analyst Helima Croft predicts that unless there is clear evidence of a supply disruption, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners are unlikely to significantly increase production [2] - OPEC+ members are considering another increase of 137,000 barrels per day, while the possibility of pausing production increases also exists [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 发布日期：2025年10月31日 【行情分析】 10月5日，OPEC+八国决定将在11月进一步增产13.7万桶/日。下次会议将于11月2日举行，预计继 续维持13.7万桶/日增产节奏。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力。原油需求旺季结束，不过EIA数据 显示EIA数据显示美国原油和成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存继续减少。EIA月报预计2025年四 季度全球石油库存增幅约260万桶/日，IEA月报预测全球石油过剩幅度加剧。消费旺季结束、美国非 农就业数据疲软，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，伊拉克库尔德地区的原油出口重启，中东地 区出口增加。原油仍是供应过剩格局，不过美国对俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的 两家石油企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公司及其子公司，特朗普称取消与普京在布达佩斯的会面， 俄罗斯原油出口预期受限，美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级。俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口 俄罗斯原油。不过印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的可能。在欧 美制裁俄罗斯石油公司后，印度最大的私营炼油商信实工业表示将调整炼油厂的运营以满足合规要 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The oil price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. The weak fundamentals will continue to put pressure on the oil price, while the uncertainty of geopolitics will intensify market volatility. The "weak expectation" fundamentals will suppress the oil price performance, but the shale oil cost will provide psychological support, and the market's downward space may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil range of $55 - 65 per barrel [7][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the crude oil market showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, OPEC+ announced to maintain a small increase in production, and the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions suppressed the oil price from both supply and demand sides. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to a rebound in the oil price. In the future, the weak fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties will make the oil price continue wide - range fluctuations [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino - US Relations**: The Sino - US leaders' meeting and the positive results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have led to a warming at the macro - level. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. Both sides will adjust relevant measures and extend some tariff exclusion measures [10]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but there is uncertainty about a December rate cut. After Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" speech, the probability of a December rate cut is expected to be 71%, lower than the previous 90%. If economic data further decline, it will strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus and suppress the oil price [13]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: There were frequent geopolitical events in October, including US - Russia phone communication, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia. These sanctions have increased geopolitical risks, causing the oil price to rebound. However, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited [14]. - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Saudi Arabia is the main force of the increase. The market expects OPEC+ to continue a small increase in production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on the oil price [16]. - **IEA Forecast**: The IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [17]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - OPEC+ production increased in September. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran were the main contributors to the increase. OPEC+ is expected to fully implement the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase in the fourth quarter [19]. - US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.644 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24. The US oil drilling rig count increased slightly, but the rebound was limited, and it is expected to remain at a low level [22][24]. - **Demand Side** - In September, the US manufacturing PMI declined, and the Chicago PMI decreased slightly, which suppressed crude oil demand. The US refinery operating rate is expected to increase seasonally in the fourth quarter [26][32]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded but remained below the boom - bust line. The operating rates of Chinese refineries showed differentiation, and domestic crude oil consumption faces the pressure of a phased decline [40][44]. - **Inventory** - US EIA crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week ending October 24. Cushing crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories also decreased, but gasoline may face inventory accumulation pressure at the end of the fourth quarter [48][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, influenced by cost and fundamental factors. Supply surplus expectations will put long - term pressure on oil prices, and the entry of the asphalt downstream into the off - season will lead to weakening demand, making it difficult for the fundamentals to provide upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 3,100 - 3,350 yuan/ton [55] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, asphalt showed a weak and volatile trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. At the beginning of the month, due to OPEC+ production increase and macro - negative factors, oil prices declined, weakening the cost support for asphalt. The lackluster peak demand season added downward pressure. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to concerns about supply tightening, driving the market to rebound. Overall, with demand entering the off - season and facing downward pressure, the fundamentals are unlikely to improve effectively, and asphalt is expected to mainly fluctuate with crude oil [6] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed Interest Rate Cut**: On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second cut this year. Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" remarks led traders to lower their bets on a December rate cut, with the current expected probability at 71%, down from 90%. The rate cut was in line with market expectations, and future attention should be paid to the US employment market. If economic data further decline, it will intensify concerns about the slowdown of the US economic growth and strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus, suppressing oil prices [11] - **Geopolitical Factors**: There were frequent geopolitical events in October. The US - Russia presidential phone call, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th - round sanctions on Russia all affected the oil market. The sanctions led to a short - term rebound in the market, but since they are not a full - scale embargo, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited. Geopolitical fluctuations have made the market somewhat desensitized, and the driving force has limited continuity [12] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia as the main contributor. OPEC+ has increased production for two consecutive months, indicating its determination to compete for market share. Market expectations suggest that OPEC+ may continue to slightly increase production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on prices [14] - **IEA Forecast Adjustment**: The IEA raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [15] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Production**: In October, domestic asphalt production totaled 2.623 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 291,100 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons. Weekly production reached a high at the beginning of the month and then declined as refineries entered the maintenance phase. It is expected that asphalt production will seasonally decline in the fourth quarter, alleviating supply pressure [17] - **Refinery Operating Rate**: In October, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month as refineries entered the seasonal maintenance period and consumer demand entered the off - season. The weekly operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was at a multi - year low and is expected to further decline, gradually easing supply pressure [22] - **Demand Side** - **Overall Demand**: In October, domestic asphalt shipments increased month - on - month in weekly data but were lower than before the National Day. Terminal rush - work drove replenishment demand, but the lackluster peak season led to a decline in terminal demand. As demand enters the off - season, shipments are expected to seasonally decline, and attention should be paid to winter storage [25] - **Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization**: In October, the domestic modified asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month. On October 31, it was 15.03%, 3.91 percentage points lower than the same period last month, showing a trend of first decline and then rebound. As the north enters cold weather, construction is basically completed, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [27] - **Import and Export** - **Import**: In September, asphalt imports were 341,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,600 tons, and the import average price increased slightly and remained stable [32] - **Export**: In September, asphalt exports were 79,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons, and the export average price increased slightly and remained stable [38] - **Inventory** - **Factory Inventory**: In October, domestic sample enterprise factory inventory decreased, but the rate of decline slowed down. On October 31, the inventory was 685,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 27,000 tons from the same period last month. It is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the decline rate [43] - **Social Inventory**: In October, domestic sample enterprise asphalt social inventory decreased. On October 31, the inventory was 937,000 tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons from the previous week and 168,000 tons from the same period last month. Terminal rush - work drove downstream consumption, accelerating the decline. Although demand is entering the off - season, supply pressure is also easing, and it is expected to continue to decline [47] - **Price Spread**: In October, the asphalt crack spread remained stable, and the asphalt processing dilution profit remained at a low level this year. Since the upward rebound momentum of crude oil is insufficient and asphalt fluctuates around oil prices, the crack spread is expected to remain at a high level [51]

中美达成贸易休战协议，或许掩盖了一份新报告发出的警报——2026年全球原油可能出现创纪录的供应 过剩。 尽管中美这两个全球最大石油消费国达成协议，但分析师普遍认为，这一进展既无法扭转原油市场的供 需失衡，也难以阻止油价向新冠疫情以来的最低水平靠拢。 基本面利空难改，400万桶/日过剩警报拉响 目前，贸易协议带来的市场情绪提振已逐步消退，原油价格在协议公布后仅微涨数美分，未能获得持续 支撑。市场焦点正重新转向供需基本面，2026年原油过剩的风险警报，或将成为影响未来油价走势的核 心因素。 油价下行风险加剧，最低或探35美元区间 供需失衡的持续发酵引发了对油价的悲观预期。里奇警告称，若2026年预期的大规模供应过剩成为现 实，美国基准油价WTI原油可能在一年内跌至每桶35美元左右的区间。这一预测基于今年以来原油期 货市场的价格走势，并参考了2010年代中期OPEC为争夺全球市场份额而引发的油价波动周期。 值得注意的是，WTI原油上次收于每桶35美元或以下还要追溯到2020年5月28日。2020年4月20日，受需 求暴跌和库存积压双重打击，WTI原油曾出现史上首次负价格结算的极端行情。 里奇强调，要实现原油市场的可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant oversupply of global crude oil, leading to a downward pressure on oil prices in the coming years [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - U.S. oil futures closed down 0.31% at $60.29 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil futures fell 0.42% to $64.05 per barrel [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The World Bank reports an increasing global crude oil oversupply [1] - Commodity prices are expected to decline by 7% in both 2025 and 2026 [1] - The oversupply of crude oil is projected to reach a near-term high of 165% in 2026 [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Concerns regarding potential production increases by OPEC+ are contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2025年10月28日 【行情分析】 10月5日，OPEC+八国决定将在11月进一步增产13.7万桶/日。下次会议将于11月2日举行，预计继 续维持13.7万桶/日增产节奏。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力。原油需求旺季结束，不过EIA数据 显示美国炼厂开工低位反弹，美国原油超预期去库，成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而有 所减少。俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油。不过印度有与美国达成新的关税协议 而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的可能。在欧美制裁俄罗斯石油公司后，印度最大的私营炼油商 信实工业表示将调整炼油厂的运营以满足合规要求。由于乌克兰加大对俄罗斯石油基础设施的打击 力度，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯将柴油和汽油出口禁令延长至年底。目前俄罗斯原油出口 量仍处高位。EIA月报预计2025年四季度全球石油库存增幅约260万桶/日，IEA月报预测全球石油过剩 幅度加剧。消费旺季结束、美国非农就业数据疲软、中美贸易不确定性令市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+ 加速增产，伊拉克库尔德地区的原油出口重启，中东地区出口增加。原油仍是供应过剩格局，不过 10 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on October 28, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like apples and rapeseed meal rose, while others such as gold and silver futures declined. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 28, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Apples rose nearly 4%, rapeseed meal rose over 2%, and iron ore, glass, polysilicon, and soybean meal rose over 1%. In terms of declines, gold futures fell over 4%, silver futures fell over 3%, and many other commodities also had varying degrees of decline. Among stock index futures, most declined except for the CSI 1000 stock index futures which rose 0.04%. Treasury bond futures generally rose. In terms of capital flow, some contracts like the 30 - year Treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while others like gold 2512 had capital outflows [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper (Cu)**: The price of copper was pushed up by macro - optimistic sentiment and the tight supply of copper concentrates. However, downstream demand was suppressed by high prices, and social copper inventories increased moderately. With the upcoming US interest - rate meeting and the continuous tight supply of copper mines, the copper price remained strong [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend. Supported by the rising cost of lithium ore and strong demand from the energy - storage battery industry, with both supply and demand being strong and inventories decreasing significantly in September, the price of lithium carbonate was expected to be mainly in a strong - side shock [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ planned to increase production in November, which would intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. Although the US refinery's operating rate rebounded and inventories decreased, concerns about demand still existed due to factors such as the end of the consumption peak season. The crude oil market was in a supply - surplus pattern, but the price was expected to continue to rebound at a low level [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in November would also decline. Downstream construction rates mostly increased, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased slightly. Affected by factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices, it was recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [14]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream operating rate of PP rebounded slightly, and the enterprise operating rate increased. The cost increased due to the rebound of crude oil prices, and the supply increased with new capacity put into operation. Although the downstream was in the peak season, the demand was less than expected, and PP was expected to be in a weak - side shock [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The plastic operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate increased. The cost was affected by the rebound of crude oil prices, and new capacity was put into operation. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and plastic was expected to be in a weak - side shock [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price was stable. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate continued to increase. The export expectation in the fourth quarter was weakened, and social inventories were still high. PVC was expected to fluctuate in the near term [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was affected by supply shortages and demand expectations. The supply was tight due to factors such as domestic production control and mine - operating rate decline, while the demand was pessimistic due to the reduction of steel - mill production. The coking coal market was expected to be in a wide - range shock [21][22]. - **Urea**: The urea futures price closed down. The spot market was stable, and the production was slightly volatile. With the approaching of winter gas - limit production, the production was expected to decline. The demand was relatively weak, and the inventory was in a slow - rising cycle. Urea was expected to be in a short - term low - level shock [23].