12月22日24时，国内成品油零售价格迎来年内第12次下调。 国家发展改革委官网披露，根据12月22日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对 比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自12月22日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别 降低170元和165元。 折合成升价，每升92号汽油、95号汽油和0号柴油的降幅分别在0.13元、0.14元和0.14元。 本轮调价也是2025自然年的最后一次调价，今年国内成品油零售调价窗口全部结束。今年国内成品油零 售价格已经经历25轮调整周期，其中7次上调，6次搁浅，12次下调。涨跌互抵后2025年汽油价格每吨累 计下调915元，折合为升价92号汽油为0.72元，折合为升价95号汽油为0.76元；柴油价格每吨累计下调 880元，折合0号柴油升价为0.75元。 本轮调价成品油调价窗口周期内，国际原油下跌为主，美国原油价格一度收于2021年2月以来最低水 平，尽管调价窗口末期原油连续三日小幅上涨，但仍未能逆转本轮跌势。 12月，全球原油供应呈现明显过剩格局。OPEC+在11月底会议上决定12月继续增产13.7万桶/日，但 2026年第一季度暂停进一步增 ...

基于严重的供应过剩预期，麦格理对油价前景维持坚定看空。其基本预测是：布伦特原油价格将下探至 每桶50美元的低位，并有相当可能触及每桶45美元，此后才可能因供需调整形成价格底部并开始回升。 同时，由于供应超出可用的炼油能力，市场远期曲线预计将转为期货溢价。麦格理已将2026年布伦特原 油年均价预测下调至每桶60.75美元。 策略师强调，尽管其过剩预测在数量上处于市场预估的高端，但在市场平衡方向和价格前景的判断上， 他们与市场共识并无二致。随着原油供应过剩从海上向陆上传导，持续多年的库存结构矛盾正走向终 结，油价面临的根本性下行压力日益清晰。 中化新网讯 近日，麦格理集团策略师发布报告警告，随着石油的陆上库存开始累积，油价将面临更大 的下行压力。数据显示，自8月底以来，海上库存已增加约2.5亿桶，陆上库存增加约3000万桶。 报告预测，2026年一季度市场供应过剩将达到峰值，超过每日400万桶。过剩迹象已经显现：海上浮舱 库存持续增加，陆上库存开始累积，同时原油海运运费居高不下。据估计，约有三分之一的海上库存增 量来自从美洲到亚洲的长途运输。 ...

WTI 2月期货上涨0.9%，结算价报每桶56.52美元。 1月期货周五到期，布伦特2月期货上涨1.1%，结算价报每桶60.47美元。 原油连续第二周下跌，对供应过剩日益严重的担忧盖过了地缘政治对供应的影响。 WTI周五上涨0.9%，结算价在每桶56美元上方。尽管如此，这一美国基准油价本周仍下跌超过1%，一 度触及近五年低点。此前，乌克兰在地中海袭击了一艘与俄罗斯影子船队有关联的油轮，标志其针对协 助莫斯科运油船只的一系列袭击再次升级，令油价获得一定支撑。 尽管存在上述风险，但几乎所有全球最大的交易商均认为，明年年初市场将出现供应过剩，行业巨头托 克集团预计，布伦特原油价格将在2026年年中之前维持在每桶50美元区间，下半年将回升。 市场正在为这一前景布局，本周仅做空的头寸规模升至纪录高点。同时，仅做多的头寸规模下降。 今年以来，油价已累计下跌约五分之一，原因在于OPEC+增产节奏快于预期，其他地区的生产商也在 增产，而需求表现疲弱。地缘政治风险，尤其是围绕俄罗斯和委内瑞拉供应的风险，助力缓和油价跌 幅，但若俄乌冲突达成和平协议、供应中断风险消除，油价可能还会进一步下跌。 "当前市场的主导情绪无疑是结构性供应 ...

本周，全球基准的布伦特原油价格一度暴跌至每桶60美元以下，投资者正试图理清美国总统特朗普推动结束俄乌冲突、逼迫委内瑞拉总统尼 古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolas Maduro）下台这两件事的影响。 然而，未来数月油价的真正驱动因素可能远比这平淡得多：全球原油供应激增。 在俄乌冲突全面爆发近四年后，市场对和平协议达成的乐观情绪日益升温。受此影响，布伦特原油跌至2021年初以来的最低水平。 周三，特朗普在其"真实社交"（Truth Social）平台发文称，随着美国加大对马杜罗的施压，他已下令封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮， 油价随后反弹约2%。 海上原油库存飙升 石油市场是地缘政治压力的可靠晴雨表，因此油价对各类事件做出反应并不令人意外。但无论是俄乌和平协议还是美国全面封锁委内瑞拉油 轮，对实际原油供应的影响都可能十分有限。 相反，未来数月油价的真正决定因素可能是一个单一数据点：据克普勒（Kpler）数据显示，全球"海上原油"（即储存在海上的原油）储量达 13亿桶。 这一储量创下2020年4月以来的最高水平（当时新冠疫情封锁导致石油消费暴跌），较8月水平高出约30%。 海上原油库存激增，部分原因是对俄罗斯的制裁收 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term fundamentals are neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate. Medium - term supply pressure may lead to price declines. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - Asphalt: Without obvious drivers, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - Polyester: PTA is expected to run warmly, while ethylene glycol will maintain low - level fluctuations [58][59]. - Short - fiber: Prices may increase due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68][70]. - Soda ash: In the short term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom and fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, adopt a bearish view on rebounds [72][75]. - Polysilicon: Continue to run cautiously and strongly in the short term, with support at around 58,000 yuan/ton [94][95]. - Industrial silicon: The spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan, and a bearish approach should be taken above 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - Rubber: The natural rubber market may show range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rate changes [129][133]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined this week. Geopolitical factors and inventory data are neutral. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium term, there is downward pressure. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Geopolitical situation: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. Other buyers may increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types [9]. - Inventory data: US crude oil inventories declined, while refined oil inventories increased. The IEA and EIA have different views on supply and demand forecasts, and the supply surplus in the fourth quarter has deepened [10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The asphalt futures price declined slightly this week. The supply side may see a slight decline in the start - up rate, and the demand side is weak due to cold weather. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Cost side: US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil have a greater impact on the asphalt market. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [31]. - Spot market: Prices in most regions declined, with sufficient supply in the south and weakening demand in the north [31][32]. - Supply side: The overall start - up rate of asphalt plants declined slightly, but it is expected to rise slightly next week [32]. - Profit side: Production profits increased slightly in the short term but are under pressure in the medium - to - long term [33]. - Demand side: Demand shows regional differentiation, with "stable in the north and weak in the south" [33]. - Inventory side: Factory inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased slightly [33]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - PTA was weak last week but may run warmly this week. Ethylene glycol prices declined last week and are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations this week [58][59]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: Demand is expected to be stable this week, and polyester load may increase slightly in the short term but has a seasonal weakening trend [60]. - PTA: Supply may increase slightly this week. PX prices are expected to be firm, and PTA is expected to run warmly [61][62]. - MEG: The start - up rate decreased slightly last week, and port inventories may increase slightly. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [63][64]. Short - fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The price of polyester short - fiber fluctuated narrowly last week and may increase this week due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: The start - up rate of short - fiber downstream yarn mills is expected to weaken, and consumption support is expected to decline [69]. - Short - fiber: The start - up rate was stable last week and is expected to remain so this week. Supply is sufficient, but cost support has improved, so prices may increase [70]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The soda ash futures price was weak this week. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is weak. It is not recommended to go long in the short term, and a bearish view on rebounds should be adopted in the medium - to - long term [72][75]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation** - Supply: The start - up rate and output have increased, and supply pressure is rising. Pay attention to policy changes [76]. - Inventory: The inventory has decreased, but the sustainability is uncertain, and the core contradiction of supply - demand imbalance remains [78][84]. - Spot: The spot price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with a weak balance in supply and demand [85]. - Downstream: The demand for soda ash is limited due to the weak supply - demand situation of float glass. The photovoltaic glass market is also under pressure [87][88]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook** - The polysilicon price fluctuated narrowly this week. The futures price showed a bullish pattern, but the short - term spot price increase faces downstream resistance. It is expected to run cautiously and strongly in the short term [94][95]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals** - The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" has been established. The prices of some products in the photovoltaic industry chain are strong, but the terminal demand has not recovered [96][98]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook** - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in a "V" shape this week. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamentals** - Supply: Production has entered a seasonal low, and the output in the southwest has limited room for further decline [118]. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Exports are stable [119][120]. - Inventory: The spot inventory is slowly accumulating, and the futures inventory is out of storage [120]. Rubber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The Shanghai rubber price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side is decreasing in China but increasing overseas. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [129][133]. - **Rubber Market Situation** - Supply: Domestic production has decreased, while overseas production is increasing. The supply surplus overseas suppresses the market [135][136]. - Import and Export: The import volume in November increased, and the arrival pressure is high [141]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the social inventory have increased [146]. - Downstream Enterprises: The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak [148][151]. - Terminal Consumption: The automobile production and sales in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [155].

欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存去库幅度略预期，但成品油库 存增幅超预期，整体油品库存增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，但仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政 府极力促成俄乌停火，仍在施压乌克兰。目前泽连斯基表态，接受双边安全保障而非直接"入约"， 作出了一定妥协，欧洲多国及欧盟机构领导人发表联合声明称，将组建一支"多国部队"支持乌克 兰。特朗普称现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成"和平协议"。俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢 价继续回落，欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙继续升级，美国在委内 瑞拉海岸扣押油轮，美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施，特朗普下令对进出委内瑞拉的 受制裁油轮实施全面封锁。委内瑞拉主要石油储存设施及码头停泊的油轮正在迅速装满原油，预计 在数日后达到最大储存上限。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉出口中断担忧。欧美成品油裂解价差持续回落， 美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，市场仍担忧原油需求，美国石油钻井平台数量回升，OPEC+持续增产， 中东地区出口增加，全球原油浮库持续增 ...

虽然特朗普没有宣战动作，但美国逐步收紧的施压还是让委内瑞拉的石油出口面临了严峻考验，有消息 称委内瑞拉国内主要原油储存设施及码头待泊油轮的装载量正快速上升，预计约10天后将达到最大储存 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 周四一早传出北京时间上午10点特朗普将对委内瑞拉宣战的消息吊足了市场胃口，大家花生瓜子都准备 好了，坐马扎子上兴奋的等着10点特朗普讲话，结果在一顿自我表扬过后，美国总统特朗普在整个国情 咨文演讲中一次也没有提到委内瑞拉，随着特朗普结束演讲，油价迅速回吐这个宣战消息带来的1美元 涨幅。 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 | ोंग्री | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 模 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | 每 | 中国SC原油期货 | 428.60 | 0.07 | 39577 | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 56.00 | 0.34 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 59.82 | 0.23 | 347989 | | ...

注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 18 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 18 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。钯封涨停板， ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月18日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存去库幅度略预期，但成品油库 存增幅超预期，整体油品库存增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，但仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政 府极力促成俄乌停火，仍在施压乌克兰。目前泽连斯基表态，接受双边安全保障而非直接"入约"， 作出了一定妥协，欧洲多国及欧盟机构领导人发表联合声明称，将组建一支"多国部队"支持乌克 兰。特朗普称现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成"和平协议"。俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢 价继续回落，欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙继续升级，美国在委内 瑞拉海岸扣押油轮，美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施，特朗普下令对进出委内瑞拉的 受制裁油轮实施全面封锁。委内瑞拉主要石油储存设施及码头停泊的油轮正在迅速装满原油，预计 在约10天后达到最大储存上限。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉出口中断担忧。欧美成品油裂解价差持续回 落，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，市场仍 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 地缘方面，美国扣押委内油轮，继续对其施 ...