Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a volatile downward trend. The weakening of the crude oil futures on the cost side, influenced by the bearish content of the energy report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), led to an expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. The weakening of the oil price center dragged down the cost support of the energy and chemical sector, causing prices to decline. - Most energy and chemical commodities saw inventory accumulation this week. Futures inventories of fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, plastics, and PVC increased slightly, while those of asphalt and styrene decreased slightly. Overall, the industrial data of the energy and chemical sector was weak this week, with intensified supply - demand contradictions. Coupled with the weakening of the crude oil cost side, the price center of the entire sector moved downward [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy and Chemical Sector Overall Situation - The energy and chemical sector showed a volatile downward trend this week due to the weakening of the crude oil cost side and inventory changes in most commodities [4]. Data Charts of Partial Varieties - **Rubber**: Included charts of rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, all - steel tire开工率trend, and semi - steel tire开工率trend [6][7][9][11][14][16]. - **Methanol**: Had charts of methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins开工率change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [19][21][22][24][26][29]. - **Crude Oil**: Featured charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery开工率, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Fuel Oil**: Contained charts of domestic high - sulfur fuel oil basis, high - sulfur fuel oil month spread, domestic fuel oil production from 2016 - 2025, Singapore fuel oil inventory from 2020 - 2025, global main shipping index from 2022 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange high - sulfur fuel oil futures inventory [45][46][48][50][53][55]. - **Asphalt**: Had charts of domestic asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, asphalt month spread, domestic asphalt production from 2016 - 2025, domestic refinery asphalt unit开工率from 2016 - 2025, China's asphalt import volume from 2020 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt weekly inventory from 2016 - 2025 [59][60][62][64][65][67]. - **PTA**: Included charts of domestic PTA basis from 2020 - 2025, PTA futures 9 - 1 month spread from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA unit开工率from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA weekly production from 2016 - 2025, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts from 2016 - 2025, and PTA enterprise weekly inventory from 2020 - 2025 [69][71][73][75][77][79]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Had charts of ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic ethylene glycol开工率from 2021 - 2025, domestic ethylene glycol weekly production from 2021 - 2025, polyester industry chain开工率from 2018 - 2025, and East China ethylene glycol inventory from 2018 - 2025 [82][83][85][86][88][90]. - **Styrene**: Contained charts of styrene basis from 2020 - 2025, styrene 9 - 1 month spread from 2021 - 2025, domestic styrene开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic styrene factory inventory from 2020 - 2025, and East + South China port styrene inventory from 2020 - 2025 [95][96][98][100][103]. - **Plastic**: Had charts of LLDPE basis, LLDPE 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production from 2019 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, domestic polyethylene import volume from 2018 - 2025, and domestic plastic products from 2016 - 2025 [109]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Included charts of polypropylene basis, polypropylene 9 - 1 month spread, Taiwan polypropylene production from 2010 - 2025, domestic polypropylene downstream开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and domestic PP import volume from 2016 - 2025 [111][112][114][116][117][118]. - **PVC**: Had charts of domestic PVC basis from 2019 - 2025, domestic PVC 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, ethylene production from 2016 - 2025, domestic PVC import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and cumulative values of housing completion and sales area from 2018 - 2025 [121][123][125][129][131][133].

进入8月份以来，国际原油市场经历了剧烈波动。美国WTI原油期货与布伦特原油期货价格较7月底高点累计最大跌幅均超过10%。国内原油期货主力合约同 样跌破500元/桶重要关口。市场多头力量明显萎缩，空头氛围日益浓厚。这一轮价格下跌背后，反映出原油市场基本面正在发生深刻变化。 供应端压力持续加大 "欧佩克+"自今年4月起已连续4个月宣布增产。累计增产超过120万桶/日。8月3日，该组织决定在9月进一步增产54.7万桶/日。这一举措提前1年完成了220万 桶/日的供应恢复计划。这一系列增产举措表明，"欧佩克+"的战略重心已从"价格维稳"转向"市场份额"。全球原油供应预期明显上升，油价承受显著压力。 各大能源机构纷纷上调了未来全球原油供给增长预期。美国能源信息署认为，今年全球原油供给增量将达到228万桶/日。而上月预期增量仅为181万桶/日。 同时，该机构对全球石油需求增量的调整幅度不大。这使得今年全球原油供给过剩量预期被上调至164万桶/日。国际能源署月报同样上调了全球原油供给增 长预测。以及今明两年原油市场供给过剩预期。 需求增长动力不足 需求方面呈现出复杂的局面。美国驾驶季汽油需求高峰不及预期。连续4周低于900 ...

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a record oversupply in the global oil market for next year due to slowing demand growth and surging supply [1] - IEA has raised its global oil supply forecasts for this year and next, expecting an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.9 million bpd next year, significantly higher than previous estimates [1] - The increase in supply is primarily driven by OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries, with OPEC+ expected to increase supply by 370,000 bpd this year and 520,000 bpd next year [1] Group 2 - OPEC has raised its global oil demand forecast for next year while lowering the supply growth forecast for non-OPEC+ countries, highlighting market uncertainty [2] - IEA's demand growth rate has slowed, with oil inventories expected to accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, surpassing the average accumulation rate during the pandemic [2] - The supply surplus has been a major factor affecting global oil prices this year, with U.S. gasoline demand lower than previous years and crude oil inventories increasing by over 10 million barrels [3] Group 3 - Domestic oil inventories in China are at a multi-year high, with a 7.1% month-on-month increase in crude oil imports in June [3] - The geopolitical dynamics, particularly U.S.-Russia relations, are influencing market expectations regarding Russian supply [3] - Analysts suggest that investors should monitor geopolitical developments, domestic inventory management, and OPEC+ production increases in the short term [3] Group 4 - OPEC+ production increases are expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, but potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could provide some support for prices [4] - The analysis of oil price trends should consider supply-demand dynamics, financial market fluctuations, and geopolitical conflicts, as well as U.S. political developments [4]

Group 1 - Hedge funds have reduced their long positions in U.S. crude oil to the lowest level since mid-April, driven by rising U.S. crude inventories and OPEC+ production increases, leading to bearish market sentiment [1] - As of last Tuesday, managed money cut its net long position in WTI crude by 9,014 contracts to 78,826 contracts, marking the lowest net long position since early April when tariffs were announced by the U.S. [1] - OPEC+ agreed to significantly increase production in September, reversing the 2.2 million barrels per day cuts implemented in 2023, following the release of U.S. economic data indicating persistent inflation and weak consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported that speculators reduced their net long positions in Brent crude by 20,375 contracts to 240,977 contracts [3]

Report Summary - The overall trend of crude oil prices this week was a one - way downward movement. The market is worried about the US economic recession due to the lower - than - expected July non - farm employment data and the significant downward revision of May and June data. The demand - side support is gradually fading. The possible meeting between the US and Russian presidents eases the concern about Russian sanctions, and the previous premium has declined. OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, intensifying the supply pressure. It is expected that the oil price will continue to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [8][54]. - It is recommended to focus on the range of $60 - 66 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices [9]. Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical risks [12] - The actual increase in OPEC+ production is lower than the plan [12] Bearish Factors - The weakening of demand - side support [12] - The easing of US - Russia relations [12] Macro Analysis US - Russia Relations - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, shortening the original 50 - day deadline to 10 days. The US Middle East envoy had a constructive meeting with Putin in Moscow. Trump plans to hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit soon, and preparations for the "Putin - Trump meeting" are underway. The initial threat of sanctions supported the oil price, but the subsequent push for high - level meetings eased market tension, and the risk premium declined [13]. US Non - farm Data - In July, the US non - farm employment increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from 45% to 75%. This situation has led to concerns about the weakening of the US economy and put pressure on oil prices [16]. US Tariffs on India - Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods because India imports Russian oil. India said it would continue to buy Russian oil. This move will have a limited impact on global crude oil supply [17]. OPEC+ Production Adjustment - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The market has fully priced in this increase. The key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. OPEC+ still has nearly 3.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that can be restored [21]. Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, the production is still lower than the increase plan [22]. - As of the week ending August 1, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day, and it is expected to remain at a low level [24]. - As of the week ending August 1, the total number of US oil rigs was 410, a decrease of 5 from the previous period. It is expected to continue to decline due to low oil prices [26]. Demand - As of the week ending August 1, US crude oil implied demand increased by 1.329 million barrels per day, while gasoline implied demand decreased by 54,000 barrels per day. The overall demand is around the average in recent years [30]. - As of the week ending August 1, the US refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous period. It is at a high level in recent years, and there is limited room for further improvement [32]. - As of August 7, the operating rate of domestic major refineries in China was 82.39%, unchanged from the previous period. The operating rate of local independent refineries was 56.19%, down 0.66 percentage points. Major refineries still have room to increase production, and local refineries are expected to enter a production - increasing cycle in early September [37]. - As of August 8, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 938.85 yuan per ton, down 38.11 yuan per ton from the previous period. The comprehensive refining profit of local independent refineries was 230.95 yuan per ton, down 5.78 yuan per ton. Major refineries' profits have recovered to a high level in recent years, while local refineries' profits remain low [41]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 1, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 235,000 barrels. Crude oil inventories are expected to remain low [46]. - As of the week ending August 1, the crude oil inventory in Cushing increased slightly, and gasoline inventory decreased. Gasoline inventory is expected to enter a downward cycle [50]. Crack Spread - As of August 6, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.14 per barrel, up from the previous week, indicating a recovery in US refined oil consumption [51]. Market Outlook - In the short term, after the bullish factors of sanctions fade, the market will return to fundamental trading. With the weakening of demand - side support and the increase in OPEC+ production, the oil price may decline further. The cost of shale oil will support the price, and the oil price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI at $60 per barrel [54].

OPEC+增产决定对市场产生直接影响，布伦特原油和WTI原油价格均出现下跌。该组织此次增产将全面逆转此前220万桶/日的减产措施，相当于全球需求的 2.4%左右。高盛预测显示，参与增产的8个成员国实际供应增加量将达到170万桶/日。 市场供应压力进一步加剧，因为其他OPEC+成员国在先前超额生产后已开始削减产量。这种供应端的重新平衡过程，使得原油价格面临持续的下行压力。 分析师普遍认为，今年晚些时候全球石油供应将开始超过需求，形成供应过剩局面。 印度等主要石油进口国开始寻找替代供应来源，向伊拉克、阿联酋和科威特等国询问额外石油供应的可能性。这种需求端的调整，进一步影响了全球原油贸 易流向和价格形成机制。 地缘风险与制裁威胁交织影响市场情绪 美国对俄罗斯能源领域实施新一轮制裁措施，涉及180多艘船只、数十家贸易商和两家主要石油公司。这些制裁包括冻结相关实体资产、禁止交易以及提供 保险服务等。制裁措施的实施，可能导致俄罗斯石油供应出现中断风险。 与此同时，地缘政治因素为市场带来不确定性。美国对印度购买俄罗斯石油施加压力，威胁征收高额关税。印度作为全球第三大石油进口国，每日进口约 175万桶俄罗斯原油。特朗普政府设 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The decline in oil prices is attributed to multiple fundamental factors, including OPEC+'s decision to increase production, weak economic data from the U.S., and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2][3] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day starting September, marking a significant shift from the previously implemented voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [1] - This decision is part of OPEC+'s strategy to regain market share, driven by healthy economic conditions and low inventories [1] - Analysts warn that this increase may lead to an oversupply situation in the latter half of the year [1] Group 3: U.S. Economic Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, raising concerns about economic slowdown and oil demand [2] - Despite some positive trends in gasoline and aviation fuel demand, overall U.S. petroleum demand data remains weak, impacting market confidence [2] Group 4: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.314 million barrels per day, while independent refiners are experiencing localized shortages [3] - China's crude oil processing volume showed a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in June, indicating robust growth in demand [3] Group 5: Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical events, including U.S. sanctions on Iran and tensions regarding Russian energy procurement, are contributing to supply concerns [4][5] - The discovery of a large oil field by BP in Brazil adds long-term supply potential but has limited short-term price impact [5] Group 6: Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a cautious or bearish outlook on future oil prices, with Goldman Sachs projecting average Brent crude prices of $64 and $56 per barrel for Q4 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - The market sentiment remains bearish, influenced by ongoing supply growth and geopolitical developments, with a focus on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and U.S. economic data [6]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed to significantly increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in September, reversing previous production cuts and aiming to capture a larger share of the global oil market [4]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ members have approved a daily increase of 548,000 barrels, marking a shift from previous production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [4]. - This decision is seen as a response to geopolitical tensions and high summer demand, aimed at alleviating pressure on consumers and is viewed as a victory for U.S. President Trump [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the increase in supply may lead to an oversupply situation by the end of the year, challenging market stability [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Implications - Following the announcement, Brent crude oil prices are expected to stabilize around $70 per barrel, reflecting that the potential increase in quotas is already priced in [4]. - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of surplus oil supply starting in October, with warnings from analysts about the risks of exacerbating this surplus [8]. - The geopolitical context, particularly U.S. sanctions threats against Russia, adds complexity to the oil market dynamics, potentially influencing prices and supply stability [5][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Considerations - The focus is shifting to the remaining production cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day, which are set to continue until the end of 2026 [4]. - Analysts emphasize the need for OPEC+ to balance market share recovery with the risk of falling oil prices, which could impact their revenues significantly [8]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of Brent crude prices fluctuating between $68 and $72 per barrel in the near term, influenced by geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production policies [9].

Group 1 - OPEC has refuted market rumors regarding a significant increase in Saudi Arabia's oil production, indicating only a slight increase in output [1] - Saudi Arabia's average daily oil production rose by 173,000 barrels to 9.356 million barrels per day, adhering to its production quota [1] - Following OPEC's clarification, Brent crude oil futures saw a minor increase of 0.07%, reaching around $69 [1] Group 2 - Major Wall Street investment firms, including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, predict that international oil prices will drop to $60 per barrel or lower in Q4 [2] - These institutions foresee a significant "supply surplus" in the oil market through 2026, leading to a continued decline in oil prices [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Saudi Arabia's actual production increase last month was about four times its OPEC quota level due to geopolitical tensions [2] Group 3 - Two statistical companies, S&P Global Commodity Insights and Argus Media, reported production numbers significantly higher than OPEC's reported figure of approximately 9.356 million barrels [3] - OPEC's monthly report includes production data directly provided by member countries, with Saudi Arabia's submitted figure aligning with its OPEC quota [3] - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.3 million barrels per day, which is notably higher than predictions from other industry data agencies [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to drop to an average of $56 and $52 per barrel by 2026 respectively [1]