Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to maintain stable economic growth, employment, and price stability in 2024, while promoting synchronized growth in residents' income and the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Policy - The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [2] - There will be a focus on the consistency and effectiveness of macro policies, integrating both existing and new policies to drive economic stability [2] - Incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, leveraging the combined effects of existing and new policies to promote economic improvement [2] Group 2: Consumer and Income Growth - The government plans to implement a consumption boost initiative and a rural resident income increase plan, while continuing to raise basic pensions for urban and rural residents [3] - There is an emphasis on adapting to changes in consumption structure by expanding the supply of quality goods and services, and optimizing the implementation of new policies [3] - The potential for inbound consumption growth will be explored, with efforts to enhance the inbound consumption environment and promote the "Buy in China" brand [3] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The government will increase central budget investment and optimize the management of local government special bonds to support major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - A sustainable investment and financing model will be established to promote high-quality urban renewal and stimulate private investment [4] Group 4: Risk Management - The government will focus on stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures, encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for reasonable uses, and reforming the housing provident fund system [5] - Efforts will be made to address local government debt risks, ensuring proactive debt management and preventing the creation of hidden debts [5] - There will be a strong emphasis on resolving corporate accounts receivable issues to prevent the recurrence of payment delays [6] Group 5: Market Regulation - Progress has been made in building a unified national market, with plans to further advance this initiative and establish regulations for market access and fair competition [7] - The government will continue to regulate local government economic promotion behaviors and address issues related to overdue payments to businesses [7]

内容提要： 2025年11月社融新增2.49万亿元，同比增长6.9%，非标融资和政府债托底占比超80%，实体信贷收缩。居民贷款同比少增4688亿元，地 产弱、消费乏力拖累中长期和短期需求；企业短期票据冲量，中长期少增400亿元，信心不足抑制投资。财政政策今年重点置换隐性债 后，明年可能重新转向固定资产投资，推动止跌回稳，但需防范加剧产能过剩风险。 一、11月新增社会融资增长6.9%，主要由非标融资托底。 12月12日，中国人民银行公布的2025年11月金融统计数据显示，前11个月社会融资规模增量累计达33.39万亿元，同比增长13.5%，比上 年同期多增3.99万亿元。其中，11月新增社融2.49万亿元，同比多增1597亿元，增速达6.9%。这一增长看似稳健，但细究分项，主要依 赖非标融资和政府债的托底，而非 实体经济的核心信贷需求。 从结构看，非标融资成为绝对主角。11月信托贷款、委托贷款及银行未贴现承兑汇票等非标资产环比增加2146亿元，同比多增1328亿 元，占新增社融的约9%。其中，信托贷款同比多增753亿元，表外票据多增580亿元，而委托贷款仅同比少增5亿元。这得益于10月新型 政策性金融工具资金投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to grow around 5% this year, maintaining its position as the largest engine of global economic growth, despite facing various internal and external challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - Major economic indicators have performed better than expected, with the economy projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, following significant growth milestones in previous years [1]. - The fixed asset investment growth rate turned negative in September, with a further decline in October, influenced by factors such as the real estate market adjustment and increased domestic competition [3][4]. Policy Measures - The government plans to implement incremental policies in response to changing circumstances, aiming to synergize existing policies to promote economic stability and growth [1]. - Key tasks for next year include prioritizing domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, with a focus on enhancing consumption and investment [2][3]. Investment Opportunities - There is significant investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and infrastructure, with current per capita infrastructure capital only at 20-30% of that in developed countries [4]. - The government aims to increase central budget investment and implement major projects to stimulate fixed asset investment and private sector engagement [4][6]. Risk Management - Emphasis is placed on managing risks in key areas, including local government debt, with measures to prevent the accumulation of hidden debts and ensure financial stability [5][6].

■"＠国务院 我为政府工作报告提建议"网民建言征集活动已在多家网络平台开展，征集时间为2025年12月10日起至2026年全国两会。 （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 ■国际货币基金组织发布最新预测，预计2025年中国经济增速将达5％，较10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》上调0.2个百分点。该组织称，尽管面临多重 冲击，中国经济仍展现出显著韧性。 ■10日，我国时速350公里高铁最长隧道——渝昆高铁彝良隧道顺利贯通，这是我国目前贯通里程最长、时速最快的高铁隧道。 ■"海洋地质六号"科考船圆满完成深海地质调查第15航次第二航段任务，多项科学成果10日正式发布。 ■10日12时03分，我国在东风商业航天创新试验区使用力箭一号遥十一运载火箭，成功将阿联酋813卫星等9颗卫星发射升空，发射任务获得圆满成功。 ■国家统计局：11月，居民消费持续恢复。居民消费价格指数CPI同比上涨0.7％，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2％。 ■国铁集团：1月至11月，铁路建设优质高效推进，全国铁路完成固定资产投资7538亿元，同比增长5.9％，有效发挥了对全社会投资的拉动作用。 ■10日，财政部在香港特别行政区，面向机构投 ...

友发集团公告称，公司于2025年12月10日召开会议，审议通过2026年固定资产投资计划，预计投资15.5 亿元。其中，新建基地投资固定资产项目2项，计划投资11亿元，包括成都基地建设和华南基地建设； 现存工厂投资固定资产项目4项，计划投资4.5亿元，涉及光伏发电等节能环保项目、生产线产品及质量 检测升级改造等。该计划已获相关会议通过，无需提交股东大会审议，不属于关联交易和重大资产重 组。但实施中可能存在投资计划调整、投资额超预算等风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's service trade showed steady growth in the first ten months of 2025, with a total import and export value of 65,844.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [5] Group 1: Service Trade Development - The total service trade export reached 29,090.3 billion yuan, growing by 14.3%, while imports amounted to 36,754 billion yuan, increasing by 2.6% [5] - The service trade deficit narrowed to 7,663.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,693.9 billion yuan compared to the previous year [5] - Knowledge-intensive service trade maintained growth, with a total import and export value of 25,121.5 billion yuan, up by 6.4% [5] - Travel service exports experienced rapid growth, with a total of 18,125.4 billion yuan, marking an increase of 8.5%, including a 52.5% rise in exports [5] Group 2: Transportation Investment - In the first ten months, transportation fixed asset investment reached 2.95 trillion yuan, driven by major transportation projects [7] - The freight volume showed steady growth, with a total of 48.29 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [7] - Port cargo throughput continued to grow, reaching 15.13 billion tons, an increase of 4.3% [7] Group 3: Goods Trade Overview - In the first eleven months, China's goods trade total value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year [9] - Exports amounted to 24.46 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.2%, while imports were 16.75 trillion yuan, with a slight growth of 0.2% [9] - The trade with ASEAN countries grew by 8.5%, making it China's largest trading partner, while trade with the EU increased by 5.4% [11] Group 4: Trade Characteristics - General trade and processing trade both saw growth, with general trade reaching 26.04 trillion yuan, up by 2.1% [10] - Private enterprises' trade increased by 7.1%, accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [13] - Mechanical and electrical products constituted over 60% of exports, with significant growth in integrated circuits (25.6%) and automobiles (17.6%) [14]

Economic Overview - China's economy is experiencing fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators due to weak domestic demand and increased external uncertainties, but there is optimism for stabilization in November with coordinated policies [1][2] - Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence in achieving economic and social development goals, highlighting industrial upgrades and large-scale market demand as key growth drivers [1] Industrial Production - The forecast for November's industrial value-added growth is 5.0%, slightly up from 4.9% in October, indicating a potential recovery in industrial production [3][4] - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2 in November, reflecting a slight increase in market confidence, although it remains below the growth threshold [3][4] Consumer Spending - The predicted year-on-year growth for retail sales in November is 3.09%, an increase from 2.9% in October, supported by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [5][6] - The "Double 11" shopping festival contributed to a 17.6% increase in online sales compared to last year, indicating a positive impact on consumer spending [6] Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for fixed asset investment growth in November is -2.1%, a decline from -1.7% in October, reflecting ongoing challenges in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [8][9] - New policy financial tools have been introduced to support investments in key sectors, including digital economy and infrastructure, with a total of 500 billion yuan allocated to over 2,300 projects [9][10] Policy Measures - The government is implementing various policies to stabilize investment, including the expansion of infrastructure REITs, which aim to attract private investment into public projects [10] - Recent meetings have emphasized the importance of strategic planning and collaboration across departments to enhance investment in critical areas [10]

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment Trends - In the first ten months of 2025, national fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with monthly declines of -5.3%, -7.1%, -7.1%, and -12.2% from July to October, marking five consecutive months of negative growth[1] - The fixed asset investment growth rate for Q1 2026 is projected to be +2.8%, with both broad infrastructure and manufacturing investments expected to exceed +5.0% year-on-year[1] - Historical data shows that the probability of achieving a positive growth in fixed asset investment in Q1 exceeds 80%, indicating a strong likelihood of a "good start" in 2026[4] Group 2: Policy Support and Debt Management - The new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan support over 2,300 projects, with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, aimed at both broad infrastructure and manufacturing sectors[2] - The rapid debt repayment progress in the second half of 2025 is expected to alleviate the pressure on project funding in 2026, allowing local governments to support investment and consumption more effectively[3] - By the end of 2025, local government debt issuance exceeded 10.2 trillion yuan, with special refinancing bonds playing a significant role in debt management and project funding[26] Group 3: Economic Environment and Investment Confidence - The meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. in October 2025 is anticipated to improve micro-enterprise investment confidence, contributing to a more favorable investment environment[2] - The current data suggests that the "watered-down" statistics from previous periods may have been adequately addressed, reducing the likelihood of statistical manipulation in future investment data[4]

钢材：铁水下滑空间有限，钢价底部支撑偏强 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量189.31万吨（-16.77），热卷小样本产量314.31万吨（-4.7）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均232.3万吨（-2.38），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率33.1%（-0.4）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3374 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-54.51元/吨左右，谷电成本3209（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +110元/吨。近期电炉成本有所下滑，废钢供应增加，而钢材价格维持平稳，导致电炉利润有所回升，电炉产能利用 率下浮下滑，废钢日耗在50.52万吨，环比略降，预计后续有复产空间；长流程钢利润维持小幅盈利，铁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The city of Binzhou is focusing on high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, optimizing investment structures to lead economic transformation and enhance quality and efficiency [1][2]. Investment Structure Optimization - Binzhou's investment strategy has shifted from scale expansion to quality improvement, with an average annual growth rate of 10.3% in fixed asset investment from 2021 to 2024, and a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in the first nine months of this year [2]. - The proportion of manufacturing investment increased from 26.5% at the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" to 41.2% by 2024, with an average annual growth of 23.2%, making it a core driver of investment growth [2]. - In the first nine months of this year, manufacturing investment grew by 12.2%, contributing 4.9 percentage points to overall investment growth [2]. Traditional and Emerging Industries - Binzhou is focusing on upgrading traditional industries while simultaneously promoting emerging industries, with an average annual growth of 9.0% in industrial technological transformation investment from 2021 to 2024, and a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in the first nine months of this year [3][6]. - The high-end aluminum industry is a key focus, with 32 technological transformation projects planned for 2024, accounting for 71.1% of the total projects in this sector [6]. - Investment in "four new" industries (new technologies, new industries, new business models, and new forms of consumption) has consistently accounted for over 55% of total investment, with an average annual growth of 11.8% [6]. Infrastructure and Social Investment - Binzhou is actively promoting infrastructure projects, with infrastructure investment maintaining over 20% of total investment and an average annual growth of 4.3% from 2021 to 2024 [7]. - In the first nine months of this year, infrastructure investment grew by 8.4%, driven by major projects in road transportation [7]. - Social sector investment has an average annual growth of 2.6%, with education sector investment growing at 16.7%, outpacing overall investment growth [7]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The local government is implementing policies to support project construction and resource allocation, with a focus on enhancing the business environment and encouraging private investment [8]. - From 2021 to 2024, private investment has consistently accounted for over 60% of total investment, with an average annual growth of 9.2%, significantly higher than the provincial average [8]. - In the first nine months of this year, private investment grew by 20.5%, making up 70.4% of total investment, an increase of 8.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [8].