Well 17 France Creation J换新馬 扩围提质实施消费品以旧换新,汽车、家 电、手机等相关产品销售额2.61万亿元, 惠及3.66亿人次。 部指社 权威数读 / ATS 电脑 亚 权 国务院新闻办公室26日举行新闻发布会，商务部相关负责人介绍2025年商务工作及运行情况。2025年， 中国消费市场活力十足：全年社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元；消费对经济增长的贡献率达到 52%；"以旧换新""中国购""国潮文化"等成为高频词……消费持续发挥了经济发展主引擎的作用，也为 世界各国提供巨大机遇。让我们跟随海报，一起来看。 社零总额首破50万亿 2025年全年社会消费品零售总额首次突破 50万亿元,达到50.1万亿元,增长3.7%, 消费对经济增长的贡献率达到52%,提高了 5个自分点。 权威数读 / 部指社 ASS 2025年,受消费品以旧换新政策带动,相 关商品,比如限额以上单位家电、通讯器 材、家具零售额分别增长了11%、20.9% 和14.6%,乘用车零售量增加了3.8%。 新华社 权威数读_/ ATA 新型消费蓬勃发 数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费等新型消费 持续升温，新业态、新模式 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the robust growth of China's consumer market, with a projected retail sales total of 50.1 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 3.7% increase, and a contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reaching 52% [4][5]. Group 1: Consumer Market Growth - In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 50 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 50.1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7% [4]. - The contribution of consumption to economic growth is expected to be 52%, highlighting its role as a key driver of economic development [4]. - The retail sales of major durable goods, such as home appliances, communication equipment, and furniture, are projected to grow by 11%, 20.9%, and 14.6% respectively, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods [5]. Group 2: New Consumption Trends - New consumption patterns, including digital, green, and health-related consumption, are on the rise, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 5.2% [6]. - The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has reached 53.9%, indicating a shift towards more sustainable consumption [6]. - Rural consumption is also thriving, with retail sales in rural areas reaching 6.8 trillion yuan, growing by 4.1%, outpacing urban growth by 0.5 percentage points [6]. Group 3: Import and Export Balance - In 2025, China is expected to import 18.48 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the world's second-largest import market for 17 consecutive years, with imports from over 130 countries increasing by 7% compared to 2024 [7]. - The growth of imports and exports is supported by platforms like the China International Import Expo, which enhances market access for products from countries like Rwanda and Nigeria [7][8]. - The Chinese government is actively promoting balanced development in trade, focusing on enhancing the quality and efficiency of foreign trade and investment [9][10]. Group 4: Policy Initiatives - The Chinese government plans to introduce more pragmatic measures to stabilize foreign trade, attract foreign investment, and promote consumption in response to complex external changes [9]. - In 2026, the focus will be on expanding domestic demand and implementing special actions to boost consumption, including optimizing policies for replacing old consumer goods [10]. - The government aims to enhance trade agreements with various countries and regions, emphasizing the importance of service sector openness and investment facilitation [10].

2025年我国以"政策+活动"双轮驱动打造"购在中国"品牌，持续释放消费活力。商品消费领域，实施扩围提质的消费品以旧换新政策，汽车、家电、手机等 相关产品销售额达2.61万亿元，惠及3.66亿人次，带动限额以上单位家电、通讯器材、家具零售额分别增长11%、20.9%和14.6%。 服务消费领域，开展服务消费提质惠民行动，全年服务零售额增长5.5%，文体休闲、旅游服务、租赁服务、交通出行等品类零售额保持两位数增长，形成 消费增长新支撑。 1月26日，国务院新闻办公室举行2025年商务工作及运行情况新闻发布会，披露2025年我国全年社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元，达到50.1万亿元， 同比增长3.7%，消费对经济增长的贡献率达到52%，较上年提高5个百分点。 此外，2025年消费市场呈现多维度增长特征：新型消费蓬勃发展，数字、绿色、健康消费持续升温，实物商品网上零售额增长5.2%，新能源乘用车市场渗 透率达53.9%；乡村消费表现活跃，乡村消费品零售额达6.8万亿元，增长4.1%，增速比城镇快0.5个百分点；大宗耐用商品、生活日用商品、升级类商品及 特色商品消费均保持良好增势，国货潮品、IP消费等新热点不断 ...

聚焦科技创新、现代化产业体系 世界级城市群呼之欲出 1月26日上午，广东省十四届人大五次会议在广州开幕。会议审查省人民政府关于广东省2025年国民经 济和社会发展计划执行情况与2026年计划草案的报告（以下简称"报告"）。 报告围绕粤港澳大湾区建设、现代化产业体系建设、科技创新、扩大内需、扩大开放、海洋强省等领域 展开，谋划了广东下一年重点开展的十三个方面工作。 近年来，广东在科技创新领域不断取得突破，现代化产业体系的四梁八柱也越筑越牢，同时，随着互联 互通不断加速，一个具有国际竞争力的一流湾区和世界级城市群也正呼之欲出。 为进一步深化粤港澳全方位互联互通，一批基础设施项目正有序推进。报告显示，2026年广东将深化粤 港澳大湾区轨道交通"四网融合"，推动新皇岗口岸建成并投入使用，推进广州港（601228）南沙港区五 期工程、狮子洋通道等项目建设，开工建设广州新机场、广珠(澳)高铁鹤洲至横琴段，推动莲花山通道 等项目前期工作，深化港深西部铁路、深珠通道等项目前期研究。 而在推进民生领域的"软联通"方面，报告指出，2026年将扩大"港澳药精通。源区社保通"等政策道用范 围，加快港澳青年创新创业基地设，深化粤港澳青 ...

国务院新闻办公室26日举行新闻发布会，商务部相关负责人介绍2025年商务工作及运行情况。2025年，中国消费市场活力十 足：全年社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元；消费对经济增长的贡献率达到52%；"以旧换新""中国购""国潮文化"等成为高 频词……消费持续发挥了经济发展主引擎的作用，也为世界各国提供巨大机遇。让我们跟随海报，一起来看。 权威数读 / 电脑 平板 扩围提质实施消费品以旧换新,汽车、家 电、手机等相关产品销售额2.61万亿元, 权威数读_/ 部华社 AD HZUNER 部半社 XINHUA NEWS 权威数读 / ASS EH 2096年 惠及3.66亿人次。 TECHNICHEL 人均服务性消费支出同比增长4.5%,占人均 消费支出的比重为46.1%。文体休闲、旅游 咨询租赁、交通出行等服务零售额保持两位 数增长。 新华社 ESS 权威数读_/ lite o 安博 2025年,受消费品以旧换新政策带动,相 关商品,比如限额以上单位家电、通讯器 材、家具零售额分别增长了11%、20.9% 和14.6%,乘用车零售量增加了3.8%。 统筹：于卫亚 制作：卜寄傲、王楚天、郭兴 设计：卓越 数字消费 ...

Core Insights - The core message of the news is the significant growth in China's consumer market in 2025, with a focus on various consumption sectors and the government's initiatives to boost consumption further in 2026. Group 1: Overall Consumption Growth - In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, reaching 50.1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7% and a contribution rate to economic growth of 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points [1] - The sales of major consumer goods, including automobiles, home appliances, and mobile phones, amounted to 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people [1] Group 2: Highlights of the Consumption Market - Durable goods consumption saw rapid growth, with retail sales of home appliances, communication equipment, and furniture increasing by 11%, 20.9%, and 14.6% respectively, while passenger car retail volume rose by 3.8% [2] - New consumption trends, such as digital, green, and health consumption, are thriving, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 5.2% and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 53.9% [2] - Rural consumption is becoming more active, with retail sales in rural areas reaching 6.8 trillion yuan, growing by 4.1%, outpacing urban growth by 0.5 percentage points [2] - Inbound consumption is increasing, with the expansion of visa-free countries and optimized tax refund policies, leading to a near doubling of sales in tax refund goods [2] Group 3: Future Initiatives for Consumption Boost - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement special actions to boost consumption, focusing on policy issuance, event organization, and improvement of consumption environments [3][5] - Specific policies will include optimizing the old-for-new consumption program and promoting reforms in automotive circulation to unleash consumption potential [3] - The Ministry will organize over 20 "Buy in China" themed events and support local activities to enhance consumer engagement [5] - Efforts will be made to cultivate international consumption center cities and promote new consumption scenarios and business models [5]

国务院新闻办公室26日举行新闻发布会，商务部相关负责人介绍2025年商务工作及运行情况。2025 年，中国消费市场活力十足：全年社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元；消费对经济增长的贡献率达 到52%；"以旧换新""中国购""国潮文化"等成为高频词……消费持续发挥了经济发展主引擎的作用，也 为世界各国提供巨大机遇。让我们跟随海报，一起来看。 士零息额直破50 2025年全年社会消费品零售总额首次突破 50万亿元,达到50.1万亿元,增长3.7%; 消费对经济增长的贡献率达到52%,提高了 5个百分点。 权威数读_/ ARS 7 47 J模新惠 17-2 电脑 亚版 手机 扩围提质实施消费品以旧换新,汽车、家 电、手机等相关产品销售额2.61万亿元, 惠及3.66亿人次。 新华社 权威数读 / AR 服务零售额度 2025年,服务零售额同比增长5.5%,居民 人均服务性消费支出同比增长4.5%,占人均 消费支出的比重为46.1%。文体休闲、旅游 咨询租赁、交通出行等服务零售额保持两位 数增长。 权威数读_/ 新华社 AR 数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费等新型消费 持续升温,新业态、新模式、新场景不断涌 现,实物商 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that by 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to reach 50.1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7%, contributing 52% to economic growth, an increase of 5 percentage points [1] - In terms of product consumption, the trade-in policy is projected to drive sales of automobiles, home appliances, and mobile phones to 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people [3] - The retail sales of durable goods are expected to grow rapidly, with retail sales of home appliances, communication equipment, and furniture increasing by 11%, 20.9%, and 14.6% respectively, while passenger car retail volume is expected to rise by 3.8% [5] Group 2 - New consumption patterns are emerging, with digital, green, and health consumption gaining traction, and online retail sales of physical goods expected to grow by 5.2%, while the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is projected to reach 53.9% [7] - Rural consumption is showing active performance, with retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas reaching 6.8 trillion yuan, growing by 4.1%, outpacing urban growth by 0.5 percentage points [7] - The inbound consumption trend is rising, with the sales of tax refund goods nearly doubling due to the expansion of visa-free countries and the optimization of tax refund policies, alongside a nearly 30% increase in foreign visitors under the 240-hour visa-free transit policy [9] Group 3 - In 2026, measures to boost consumption will focus on policy implementation, event organization, and improving consumption environments, including optimizing the trade-in policy and promoting durable goods consumption [11] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to organize over 20 "Buy in China" themed events and support local activities to create a strong consumption atmosphere [11] - Efforts will be made to accelerate the cultivation of international consumption center cities and promote new consumption scenarios to enhance the overall consumer experience [11]

Core Insights - The 2025 consumer market in China has achieved significant growth in both scale and quality, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 50.1 trillion yuan, marking a historic milestone of surpassing 50 trillion yuan. The contribution of consumption to GDP growth has reached 52%, reinforcing its role as a key driver of economic development [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - Durable goods consumption has seen rapid growth, driven by the "old for new" policy, with retail sales of major appliances, communication devices, and furniture increasing by 11%, 20.9%, and 14.6% respectively, while passenger vehicle retail volume rose by 3.8% [1] - New types of consumption are thriving, with digital, green, and health-related consumption gaining momentum. The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 5.2%, and the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 53.9% [1] Group 2: Regional and International Consumption - Rural consumption has shown active performance, with the retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas reaching 6.8 trillion yuan, growing by 4.1%, outpacing urban growth by 0.5 percentage points [2] - The heat of inbound consumption is rising, supported by the expansion of visa-free countries and the optimization of tax refund policies for outbound travelers. Sales of tax refund goods have nearly doubled, and the implementation of the 240-hour visa-free transit policy has led to a nearly 30% increase in foreign visitors [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market has different trends and outlooks for various commodities and financial products. For example, the bond futures are expected to face pressure, the stock index is expected to have a gradually rising central fluctuation range, and the precious metals market is expected to have significant volatility [6][9][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.07%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan [5] - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure. It is recommended to remain cautious [6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.15%, - 0.66%, 3.36%, and 3.06% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation and economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds, are expected to drive the central fluctuation range of the stock index to gradually rise. It is recommended to hold previous long positions [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose 2.58% and 6.97% respectively. Eurozone and US PMI data were released [11] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise and increased speculation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13] Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils in different regions were given [15] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar demand is in a downward trend, and the market is entering a demand off - season. The supply pressure has eased, and inventory consumption is fast. The prices are likely to continue weak oscillations, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were given. National pig iron daily output is low, and port inventory is rising [17] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened, but there are signs of stabilization in futures. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - **Outlook**: From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose 1.00% each. The spot prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron in different regions changed. The supply and demand of ferroalloys are in a certain situation, and the cost fluctuates slightly [22] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure persists. The cost is at a low level, and there is support for the low - level range. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24] - **Outlook**: CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new US sanctions on Iran have pushed up crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [25] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and stood above the moving average group. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the crack spread continued to rise [27] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [28] Chemical Products Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed higher quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. The market has a strong desire to test higher prices, but demand follow - up is insufficient [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market will face a supply - demand tight situation this week, and prices may continue to rise in the short term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 6.99%. Last week, the market rose, mainly supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates, but limited by weak downstream demand. The inventory is accumulating [31] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a strong oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and whether the device overhauls in January will be implemented [32] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rose 3.29% and 3.27% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis was stable [34] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The supply is shrinking, the cost support is still there, the demand of tire enterprises is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.82%. The spot price increased, and the basis was stable. The current is the traditional off - season for PVC demand [36] - **Outlook**: Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of demand [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.39%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased, and the basis was stable [40] - **Outlook**: The short - term urea price will maintain a strong oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products has different changes, and the inventory situation is given [40] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 2.93%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread are at a certain level, and the PX load has declined [42] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the PX start - up rate is increasing, and the market sentiment and cost - end crude oil may provide support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the fluctuation of external crude oil [43] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 4.21%. The PTA device load is stable, the polyester load has decreased, and the processing fee has increased [44] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The inventory is still low, the supply - end changes are small, the demand - end has a seasonal decline, but the cost - end and market sentiment boost the market. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract increased in volume and rose 5.99%, mainly driven by device production cuts and market sentiment. The overall and synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol operating loads have decreased, and some devices have plans for production cuts or shutdowns [45] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply - end of ethylene glycol has shrunk due to increased domestic and foreign device overhauls, and the market sentiment has been boosted. However, the port inventory still has pressure, and the pre - arrival volume at ports has increased significantly. There is obvious seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in January and February, and it may gradually enter the de - inventory channel in March. The upward space in the short - term may be limited. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose 3.45%. The short - fiber device load has increased slightly, the downstream terminal start - up rate has decreased locally, and the factory's raw material inventory has increased [47] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, the terminal factory is mainly digesting raw material inventory, and the low inventory may provide bottom support. It is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic and may oscillate with raw material prices. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory stocking [47] Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract rose 4.4%. The bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, the factory load has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts and restarts around the Spring Festival [48] - **Outlook**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has decreased slightly, and there are expectations of supply reduction around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still on the cost - end. It is expected to oscillate with the cost - end. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [48] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, rising 2.04%. The production has decreased slightly, the inventory is still accumulating, the equipment operation is increasing, the downstream demand is general, and the price is relatively stable [49] - **Outlook**: The off - season characteristics are significant. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price is expected to adjust steadily. It is recommended to be cautious [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1064 yuan/ton, rising 1.33%. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory is increasing, the trader's inventory is also increasing, the enterprise's shipment has slowed down, and the downstream demand is shrinking [52] - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is calm, the industry profit is low, the downward space is limited. It may rise due to a technical rebound in the short - term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [52] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 1945 yuan/ton, rising 0.15%. In winter, the supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is weak, and the transportation in the north is affected by cold weather [53] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant. The pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate due to the price fluctuation of alumina, but considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [54] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, rising 0.78%. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, and the prices of various types of pulp have declined to varying degrees [55] - **Outlook**: The downstream market's inventory stocking is approaching the end, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the disk has a short - term technical rebound, it is necessary to treat it rationally [56] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 7.31% to 181,520 yuan/ton. The macro - liquidity release has pushed up the commodity pricing center [57] - **Outlook**: The supply of lithium resources is elastic, the production is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, the inventory is gradually decreasing, and the price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [57] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,830 yuan/ton, rising 2.21%. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate is in short supply [58] - **Outlook**: The demand is suppressed by high prices, the inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is expected to adjust at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [59] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,315 yuan/ton, rising 0.75%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, falling 0.11%. The alumina market has a supply surplus, and the high aluminum price suppresses downstream demand [61] - **Outlook**: Both the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain are under pressure in the short - term. It is expected to adjust at a high level [61] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,690 yuan/ton, rising 0.51%. The domestic refined zinc production has increased, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [63] - **Outlook**: The zinc price lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [64] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, rising 0.29%. The lead concentrate processing fee is low, the supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is increasing slightly [66] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [66] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 6.56% to 447,140 yuan/ton. The exchange has introduced cooling measures, and the geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the price center [68] - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to control risks [68] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 1.2% to 146,760 yuan/ton. The "strategic reserve" metals have generally risen, and the Indonesian nickel policy has changed [70] - **Outlook**: The nickel ore price has support, but the stainless - steel market is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [70] Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract and soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% each. The spot prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in different regions changed. The market demand expectation has improved, and the South American weather concerns provide support [71] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, the cost support has been adjusted downward, the soybean meal demand has a moderate increase, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long - positions for soybean oil when the price rises [72] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen due to profit