1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% in 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and the price war is gradually ending [3][117]. - Overseas markets are affected by severe trade protectionism in Europe and the United States, which brings volatility risks to exports. New growth points such as the Belt and Road countries and the Middle East should be focused on [3][117]. - In the competitive landscape, the market share of domestic brands continues to expand. Companies with strong product strength, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply should be focused on [3][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies are presented. For example, among listed companies, BYD's closing price on October 31st was 103.61 yuan with a one - week decline of 0.14%, while SAIC Motor's closing price was 16.75 yuan with a one - week increase of 0.42% [14]. 3.2产业链 Data Tracking 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: From January to August globally, new energy vehicle sales reached 13.257 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. In China, from October 1 - 26, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 901,000, with a year - on - year growth of 0% and a month - on - month decline of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.771 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% [1][106][115]. - **Inventory Changes**: Information on the monthly new inventory of new energy passenger vehicle channels and manufacturers is presented through relevant charts [25]. - **Delivery Volume of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Enterprises**: The monthly delivery volumes of companies such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO are presented through charts [28][33]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: From January to August, new energy vehicle sales reached 13.257 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.6% [1][115]. - **European Market**: The cumulative sales in Europe were 2.442 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 30.8% [1][115]. - **North American Market**: The cumulative sales from January to August were 1.205 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.8% (cumulative sales from January to September were 1.399 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%). The sales and penetration rate in the United States reached record highs in August and September, mainly due to the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit ($7,500) on September 30th [1][115]. - **Other Regions**: The cumulative sales in other regions were 665,000, with a year - on - year growth rate of 50.6% [1][115]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Information on power battery loading volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of battery cells, and material costs is presented through relevant charts [76][80]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - The daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented through relevant charts [99][100]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - On October 30th, China and the United States reached a consensus. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will suspend relevant export control measures announced on October 9th for one year [103][104]. - On October 31st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that it will promote green products and vigorously develop green industries such as new energy vehicles [105]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 901,000, with a year - on - year growth of 0% and a month - on - month decline of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.771 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% [1][106][115]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Anhui's automobile production was 2.4044 million, ranking first in China, mainly due to the significant increase in new energy vehicle production [107]. - As of the end of September 2025, the cumulative export of domestic cars from Shanghai Waigang Haitong Wharf exceeded 5.32 million, with an average annual growth rate of 10.6%, and the proportion of new energy vehicles increased from 34% to 59% [108]. 3.3.3 China: Enterprise Dynamics - BYD sold 441,706 vehicles in October, a record high this year. In Q3, its total revenue was 194.985 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.05% [109]. - Leapmotor delivered 70,289 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of over 84% [111]. - XPeng delivered 42,013 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of 76% [111]. - NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of 92.6% [111]. - Li Auto delivered 31,767 vehicles in October, and the orders for the Li i6 exceeded 70,000 after its launch [111]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - The US Senate voted to reject Trump's global tariff policy, but the vote may only be symbolic before the House of Representatives conducts a similar vote [111][112]. - Norway has basically achieved the 100% electrification goal and plans to gradually cancel electric vehicle subsidies within two years [2][113][116].

Core Viewpoint - The October performance of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market has shown significant growth, marking a strong sales season that contrasts with the overall automotive market's decline [2][7][8]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Multiple NEV brands reported record-high delivery numbers in October, with Leap Motor delivering 70,289 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of over 84% [2][5]. - BYD achieved sales of 441,706 vehicles in October, the highest for the year, with cumulative sales from January to October reaching 3,701,852 vehicles, and over 14.2 million NEVs sold cumulatively [3]. - Geely's passenger car sales reached 307,133 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 35%, maintaining an upward trend for eight consecutive months [3]. - Changan's Avita Technology reported sales of 13,500 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 34%, marking a historical high [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The NEV market's robust performance is attributed to supportive policies and the launch of new models, positioning it as a key driver for growth in the automotive industry [2][9]. - Despite the NEV market's growth, the overall passenger car market saw a decline, with retail sales dropping by 7% year-on-year in October [7][8]. - The China Passenger Car Association anticipates that the NEV penetration rate will reach new heights, driven by ongoing policy support and new model launches [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued support from vehicle scrappage and replacement, as well as demand driven by the upcoming reduction in NEV purchase tax subsidies [9]. - Analysts suggest focusing on leading companies in the NEV industry and those with international market presence, as well as component suppliers and infrastructure firms benefiting from the NEV growth [9].

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is at a critical turning point in 2025, characterized by slowing growth and structural differentiation, with a notable decline in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and a diversified competitive landscape among brands [2][3]. NEV Market Trends - The growth rate of NEV penetration has significantly slowed, with an increase of less than 4 percentage points from January to September 2025, compared to a 12.5 percentage point increase in 2024 [3]. - The proportion of consumers opting for NEVs under the trade-in policy decreased from 60% in 2024 to 53% in early 2025, indicating a weakening driving force for NEV penetration [3]. - The penetration rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) has declined from 21.1% in 2024 to 19.8% in 2025, while pure electric vehicles (EVs) continue to rise from 26.6% to 31.4% during the same period [3][4]. PHEV Market Dynamics - PHEV sales dropped sharply from 124.7 million units in 2024 to 27.2 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to a decrease in their contribution to overall NEV growth from 69.7% to 15.1% [4][5]. - The weakening momentum in the PHEV market is attributed to market saturation in lower-tier cities and increased competition from fuel vehicles, which have lowered their prices significantly [5]. Competitive Landscape - The NEV market is witnessing increased competition, with brands like Geely and Leap Motor gaining market share, disrupting BYD's previous dominance [6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, Geely's NEV sales increased by 566,000 units, while Changan and Xiaomi also reported significant sales growth [6]. - Joint venture brands are also entering the NEV market aggressively, with new models achieving monthly sales of 8,000 to 10,000 units, indicating a resurgence in competition [7]. Export Market Developments - China's automotive exports reached 4.95 million units in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with expectations to exceed 7.5 million units for the entire year [8][9]. - The export growth is shifting from a few major companies to a more diversified group of manufacturers, with BYD and Chery leading the charge [9]. - The second-hand car export market is emerging as a potential growth area, with only 7% of total automotive exports in 2024, indicating significant room for expansion [9][10]. Future Outlook - The second-hand car export market is expected to grow, particularly in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia, with a projected growth rate of nearly 85% in the African market [10][11]. - Companies are advised to focus on establishing after-sales networks in key export markets and to leverage existing resources to avoid blind investments [11].

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is at a critical turning point in 2025, characterized by slowing growth and structural differentiation, with a notable decline in the penetration rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles and a more diverse competitive landscape among brands [1][2]. Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has significantly slowed, with an increase of less than 4 percentage points from January to September 2025, compared to a 12.5 percentage point increase in 2024 [2]. - The plug-in hybrid market has experienced a rare decline in penetration rate, dropping from 21.1% in 2024 to 19.8% in the first three quarters of 2025, while pure electric vehicles continue to rise from 26.6% to 31.4% [2][3]. Sales Contributions - In 2024, plug-in hybrids sold 1.247 million units, contributing 69.7% to the overall increase in NEV sales, but by the first three quarters of 2025, sales plummeted to 272,000 units, contributing only 15.1% [3]. - The weakening of the plug-in hybrid market is attributed to market saturation in lower-tier cities and increased competition from fuel vehicles, which have seen a price drop, making them more appealing to consumers [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The market is witnessing a diversification of brands, with companies like Geely and Leap Motor rapidly gaining market share, altering the previously dominant position of BYD [5]. - The interaction data from automotive apps indicates a growing consumer interest across various brands, with significant engagement metrics for new models from Geely and Xiaomi [5]. Export Market Dynamics - China's automotive exports have shown a steady increase, with 4.95 million units exported from January to September 2025, a year-on-year growth of 14.8%, and projections suggest exports could exceed 7.5 million units in 2025 [6][7]. - The export landscape is shifting from reliance on a few major companies to a more diversified group of manufacturers, with BYD and Chery leading the charge [6][7]. Second-Hand Vehicle Export Potential - The second-hand vehicle export market in China remains underdeveloped, accounting for only 7% of total automotive exports, indicating significant growth potential compared to mature markets [7][8]. - The future of second-hand vehicle exports is expected to evolve into a dual model of platform-based and self-operated businesses, focusing on local market integration and resource optimization [8].

尹江鳌表示，智能化趋势给保险人带来深刻影响，会催生出更多风险防控需求，保险的责任界定、计算 基础、商业模式等将发生变化，需要摒弃传统保障模式。以车险为例，应从承保驾驶员操作风险，或是 车企软件和配件等供应商的产品风险入手，从以事故损失数据定价扩展至以行车数据定价，提升承保、 定价、定损、理赔、精算等专业性。今年9月新能源汽车渗透率已达58%。1至9月新能源汽车商业险投 保率达91%，比燃油车高6个百分点，预计今年新能源车险保费将达2000亿元左右，增速超过30%。 北京商报讯（记者 胡永新）10月28日，在2025金融街论坛年会中欧保险创新论坛上，国家金融监督管 理总局财产保险监管司（再保险监管司）司长尹江鳌就新能源车险的监管与发展主题发表演讲。 ...

Summary of China Auto Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Auto Industry - **Focus**: 3Q25 preview and expectations into 2026 Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Forecasts**: - Total Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales are projected to reach 30.59 million units in 2025 and 31.43 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7% and 3% respectively [5][6][89] - The sales of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) are expected to grow significantly, with wholesales reaching approximately 19.06 million units by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2023 to 2030 [6][89] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The market share of Chinese brands in the overall PV industry is anticipated to increase from 65% in 2024 to 80% in the long term, driven by gains in the NEV segment and the adoption of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [75] - The export of vehicles is projected to continue growing, with a record level of approximately 5.9 million units exported in 2024, and an expected increase to around 6.6 million units in 2025 [83][84] 3. **Pricing Environment**: - Pricing discounts have risen to record highs since Q1 2022, although they have narrowed slightly due to government initiatives aimed at reducing market competition [44][52] - The average discount for domestically made models is around 8%, while imported models see an average discount of 13% [52] 4. **OEM Performance**: - Key OEMs such as BYD, Geely, and SAIC are expected to maintain strong sales volumes, with BYD projected to sell approximately 1.14 million units in 3Q25, despite a slight decline of 3% from the previous quarter [90][91] - Leapmotor is expected to show significant growth, with a 30% increase in sales volume to 174,000 units in 3Q25 [90] 5. **Policy Implications**: - There is a 50% probability that subsidies or some form of stimulus will continue into 2026, with a focus on energy efficiency for NEVs [88] - Historical cycles indicate that government policies, such as tax cuts, have previously led to significant rebounds in auto sales [19][23] Additional Important Insights - **Segment Analysis**: - The NEV segment is expected to dominate future sales, with wholesales projected to reach 12.29 million units by 2025, indicating a strong shift towards electric vehicles [6] - The penetration rate of NEVs in the overall market is expected to rise to 60% by 2030 [6] - **Market Share Trends**: - The top 10 OEMs currently hold 86% of the market share, indicating a highly concentrated market [30][32] - The market share of NEVs is expected to grow significantly, with domestic brands leading the charge [37] - **Challenges**: - The industry faces challenges such as fluctuating demand and pricing pressures, which could impact profitability for some OEMs [54][56] This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts regarding the China auto industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the expected growth in sales, market dynamics, and the implications of government policies on the sector.

Core Insights - In September 2025, 20 A and H-share listed automotive manufacturers reported a total vehicle sales of 2.1862 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.28% [1] - The total sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached approximately 1.1924 million units, up 21.9% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of about 55.69% [1][6] Vehicle Sales Overview - The top three manufacturers in total vehicle sales for September were SAIC Motor with 439,777 units, BYD with 396,270 units, and Geely with 273,125 units [4][5] - SAIC Motor's sales increased by 40.39% year-on-year, while BYD's sales decreased by 5.52% [4][5] - Notable growth was observed in Qianli Technology with a year-on-year increase of over 170% in September sales [3][4] New Energy Vehicle Sales - The leading companies in NEV sales for September were BYD with 396,270 units, SAIC Motor with 189,498 units, and Geely with 165,201 units [9] - Qianli Technology and Shuguang Co. saw NEV sales growth exceeding 100% year-on-year, while Li Auto experienced a decline of 36.79% [8][9] - The NEV sales penetration rate increased by 0.69 percentage points compared to August [6] Monthly Sales Trends - Compared to August, companies like Beiqi Blue Valley, Zhongtong Bus, and Jiangling Motors showed significant acceleration in sales growth, while Shuguang Co., Xiaopeng Motors, Dongfeng Group, and Foton Motors experienced a slowdown [1][3] - The overall vehicle sales in September showed a month-on-month increase of 13.63% [1]

Core Insights - In September 2025, 20 A and H-share listed automotive manufacturers collectively sold 2.1862 million vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.28% and a month-on-month increase of 13.63% [2][5][6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached approximately 55.69%, reflecting a 0.69 percentage point increase from August [9][12] Overall Vehicle Sales - The top three companies in terms of vehicle sales in September were SAIC Motor with 439,777 units, BYD with 396,270 units, and Geely Automobile with 273,125 units [6][8] - Notable year-on-year growth was observed in companies like Qianli Technology with over 170% and XPeng Motors with over 60%, while companies like Dawn Automotive and Li Auto experienced declines exceeding 15% [5][6] New Energy Vehicle Sales - A total of 16 companies reported NEV sales of approximately 1.1924 million units in September, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [9][12] - BYD, SAIC Motor, and Geely Automobile led NEV sales with 396,270, 189,498, and 165,201 units respectively, while Li Auto saw a significant decline of 36.79% in sales [12][14] Company Performance Highlights - SAIC Motor's NEV sales reached 189,498 units in September, with a year-on-year growth of 46.54% [13] - BYD's total vehicle sales in September were 396,270 units, down 5.52% year-on-year, while its NEV sales included 205,100 pure electric and 188,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles [14] - XPeng Motors achieved a remarkable 94.74% increase in vehicle sales, totaling 41,581 units in September [12][14]

Core Insights - Great Wall Motors reported a revenue increase in Q3 but experienced a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite higher sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 61.25 billion yuan in Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.51% [1][2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.30 billion yuan, down 31.23% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - Basic earnings per share were 0.27 yuan, a decrease from 0.39 yuan in the same period last year [2]. Sales and Expenses - Sales expenses surged to 7.95 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 55.74% from 5.11 billion yuan in the previous year [3]. - For the first nine months of the year, Great Wall Motors sold 919,800 vehicles, marking an 8.03% increase year-on-year [3]. - The sales of the Ora brand, targeting the female market, were disappointing, with only 30,000 units sold, down 30.12% year-on-year [3]. Brand Performance - The Haval, Great Wall Pickup, and Tank brands showed slight growth, while the high-end WEY brand experienced a remarkable increase of 99.85% [3]. - Overseas sales remained strong, with 334,200 units sold in the first nine months, accounting for 36.2% of total sales [3]. New Energy Vehicles - Great Wall Motors sold 278,500 new energy vehicles in the first nine months, representing 30.28% of total sales [3]. - The company's new energy vehicle penetration rate is projected to be 26.1% in 2024, still below the overall market penetration rate of approximately 50% [3].

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/10/23 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 79,940.00 | +2820.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -177,549.00 | -17641.00↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 419,147.00 | +65916.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -100.00 | +840.00↑ | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 28,759.00 | -260.00↓ | | | | | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 74,800.00 | +450.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 72,550.00 | +450.00↑ | 现货市场 | -5,140.00 | -2370.00↓ ...