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全品种价差日报-20251024
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 02:52
Report Date - The report is dated October 24, 2025 [3] Commodity Price Information Ferrous Metals - 72-silicon iron qualified blocks (Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipt) have a conversion price of 5574, a change of 0.07%, and a historical quantile of 57.70%. The futures price of silicon iron (SF601) is 5578, with a change of 4 and a change rate of 2.27% [1] - The conversion price of 6517-silicon manganese (Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipt) is up 49.60%. The futures price of silicon manganese (SM601) is 5950, and the spot price is 5818 [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar in Shanghai has a spot price of 3220, a change of 4.85%, and a historical quantile of 63.10%. The futures price of rebar (RB2601) is 3071, with a basis of 149 and a basis rate of 4.85% [1] - Q235B 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in Shanghai has a spot price of 3300, a change of 1.35%, and a historical quantile of 37.30%. The futures price of hot-rolled coil (HC2601) is 3256, with a basis of 44 and a basis rate of 1.35% [1] - The conversion price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 777, a change of 7.90%, and a historical quantile of 49.70%. The futures price of iron ore (I2601) is 838, with a change of -122 and a change rate of -6.91% [1] - The conversion price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke (A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7) at Rizhao Port is up 5.83%. The futures price of coke (J2601) is 1646, and the spot price is 1768, with a basis of -122 and a basis rate of -6.91% [1] - The conversion price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is up 4.73%. The futures price of coking coal (JM2601) is 1318, and the spot price is 1259, with a basis of 59 and a basis rate of 4.73% [1] Non-ferrous Metals - The SMM average price of copper has a change of -0.67%. The futures price of copper (CU2512) is 86070, and the spot price is 85490, with a basis of 580 and a basis rate of 0.68% [1] - The SMM average price of A00 aluminum has a change of -125 (-0.59%). The futures price of aluminum (AL2512) is 21165, and the spot price is 21040, with a basis of -125 and a basis rate of -0.59% [1] - The SMM average price of alumina has a change of -315 (-1.41%). The futures price of alumina (AO2601) is 22345, and the spot price is 22030, with a basis of 315 and a basis rate of 1.43% [1] - The SMM average price of 1 zinc ingot has a change of -55 (-0.44%). The futures price of zinc (ZN2512) is 22345, and the spot price is 22030, with a basis of 315 and a basis rate of 1.41% [1] - The SMM average price of 1 tin has a change of 300. The futures price of tin (SN2512) is 281230, and the spot price is 280000, with a basis of -1230 and a basis rate of -0.44% [1] - The SMM average price of 1 imported nickel has a change of -0.07%. The futures price of nickel (NI2512) is 121380, and the spot price is 121300, with a basis of 80 and a basis rate of 0.07% [1] - The price of 304/2B stainless steel (2*1240*C, including trimming fee) in Wuxi Hongwang has a change of 405. The futures price of stainless steel (SS2512) is 13170, and the spot price is 12765, with a basis of 405 and a basis rate of 3.17% [1] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has a change of -5140 (-6.48%). The futures price of lithium carbonate (LC2601) is 74800, and the spot price is 79940, with a basis of -5140 and a basis rate of -6.48% [1] Precious Metals - The price of gold (AU2512) has a change of -2.1 (-0.28%). The futures price is 942.3, and the spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold (T+D) is 940.1, with a basis of -2.2 and a basis rate of -0.23% [1] - The price of silver (AG2512) has a change of -4.0. The futures price is 11467.0, and the spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver (T+D) is 11463.0, with a basis of -4.0 and a basis rate of -0.04% [1] Agricultural Products - The price of soybean meal (M2601) has a change of -1.97%. The futures price is 2880, and the spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 2938.0, with a basis of 58.0 and a basis rate of 1.98% [1] - The price of soybean oil (Y2601) has a change of -1.34%. The futures price is 8340, and the spot price of fourth-grade soybean oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 8188.0, with a basis of -152.0 and a basis rate of -1.82% [1] - The price of palm oil (P2601) has a change of -122.0. The futures price is 9010, and the spot price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 9132.0, with a basis of -122.0 and a basis rate of -1.34% [1] - The price of rapeseed meal (RM601) has a change of 3.11%. The futures price is 2339.0, and the spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Guangdong Zhanjiang is 2470, with a basis of 131.0 and a basis rate of 5.52% [1] - The price of rapeseed oil (OI601) has a change of 303.0. The futures price is 10060, and the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Nantong is 9757.0, with a basis of 303.0 and a basis rate of 3.11% [1] - The price of corn (C2601) has a change of 20.0. The futures price is 2140.0, and the spot price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2160, with a basis of 20.0 and a basis rate of 0.93% [1] - The price of corn starch (CS2601) has a change of 100.0. The futures price is 2450.0, and the spot price of corn starch in Jilin Changchun is 2550, with a basis of 100.0 and a basis rate of 4.08% [1] - The price of live pigs (LH2601) has a change of -350.0. The futures price is 11850, and the spot price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Henan is 12200.0, with a basis of -350.0 and a basis rate of -2.87% [1] - The price of eggs (JD2512) has a change of -157.0. The futures price is 2870, and the spot price of eggs in Hebei Shijiazhuang is 3027.0, with a basis of -157.0 and a basis rate of -5.19% [1] - The price of cotton (CF601) has a change of 1077.0. The futures price is 14652, and the spot price of cotton (3128B) in Xinjiang is 13575.0, with a basis of 1077.0 and a basis rate of 7.93% [1] - The price of white sugar (SR601) has a change of 333.0. The futures price is 5457.0, and the spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5790, with a basis of 333.0 and a basis rate of 6.10% [1] - The price of apples (AP601) has a change of 10.0. The futures price is 8840, and the spot price of apples (delivery theoretical price) is 8830.0, with a basis of 10.0 and a basis rate of 0.11% [1] - The price of red dates (CJ601) has a change of -1565.0. The futures price is 9600, and the spot price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei is 11165.0, with a basis of -1565.0 and a basis rate of -14.02% [1] Energy and Chemicals - The price of paraxylene (PX601) has a change of 161.0. The futures price is 6657.0, and the spot price of paraxylene at Chinese main ports (CFR, converted to RMB) is 6496.0, with a basis of 161.0 and a basis rate of 2.48% [1] - The price of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) (TA601) has a change of -78.0. The futures price is 4430.0, and the spot price of PTA in East China is 4508.0, with a basis of -78.0 and a basis rate of -1.73% [1] - The price of ethylene glycol (EG2601) has a change of 100.0. The futures price is 4195.0, and the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China is 4095.0, with a basis of 100.0 and a basis rate of 2.44% [1] - The price of polyester staple fiber (PF512) has a change of 155.0. The futures price is 6160.0, and the spot price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm, direct spinning) in East China is 6315.0, with a basis of 155.0 and a basis rate of 2.45% [1] - The price of styrene (EB2512) has a change of 40.0. The futures price is 6545.0, and the spot price of styrene in East China is 6585.0, with a basis of -40.0 and a basis rate of -0.61% [1] - The price of methanol (MA601) has a change of -42.0. The futures price is 2292.0, and the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250.0, with a basis of 42.0 and a basis rate of 1.87% [1] - The price of urea (UR601) has a change of -88.0. The futures price is 1550.0, and the spot price of urea (small granules) in Shandong is 1638.0, with a basis of -88.0 and a basis rate of -5.37% [1] - The price of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) (L2601) has a change of 1.0. The futures price is 6999.0, and the spot price of LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong is 7000.0, with a basis of 1.0 and a basis rate of 0.01% [1] - The price of polypropylene (PP) (PP2601) has a change of -101.0. The futures price is 6691.0, and the spot price of PP (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6590.0, with a basis of 101.0 and a basis rate of 1.53% [1] - The price of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) (V2601) has a change of -120.0. The futures price is 4610.0, and the spot price of PVC (SG - 5) in Changzhou is 4730.0, with a basis of -120.0 and a basis rate of -2.54% [1] - The price of caustic soda (SH601) has a change of 178.0. The futures price is 2385.0, and the spot price of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda, converted to 100%) in Shandong is 2563.0, with a basis of 178.0 and a basis rate of 7.47% [1] - The price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (PG2512) has a change of 162.0. The futures price is 4236.0, and the spot price of LPG in Guangzhou is 4398.0, with a basis of -162.0 and a basis rate of -3.68% [1] - The price of asphalt (BU2601) has a change of 63.0. The futures price is 3277.0, and the spot price of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong is 3340.0, with a basis of 63.0 and a basis rate of 1.92% [1] - The price of butadiene rubber (BR2512) has a change of 80.0. The futures price is 11200.0, and the spot price of butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in China is 11120.0, with a basis of 80.0 and a basis rate of 0.72% [1] - The price of float glass (FG601) has a change of -68.0. The futures price is 1040.0, and the spot price of 5mm float glass in Shahe is 1108.0, with a basis of -68.0 and a basis rate of -6.14% [1] - The price of soda ash (SA601) has a change of -50.0. The futures price is 1185.0, and the spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1235.0, with a basis of -50.0 and a basis rate of -4.05% [1] - The price of natural rubber (RU2601) has a change of -695.0. The futures price is 14550.0, and the spot price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned full - latex) in Shanghai is 15245.0, with a basis of -695.0 and a basis rate of -4.56% [1] Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - The price of IF2512.CFE has a change of -25.5 (-0.55%). The futures price is 4606.3, and the basis is -3.1, with a basis rate of -0.10% [1] - The price of IH2512.CFE has a change
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年10月23日):一、动力煤-20251023
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on October 23, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - Basis data from October 16 - 22, 2025, shows that the basis on October 22 was - 39.4 yuan/ton, gradually increasing from - 60.4 yuan/ton on October 16 [2]. - The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads were all 0 during this period [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from October 16 - 22, 2025, are presented, with values such as - 45.52 yuan/ton for fuel oil on October 22 [7]. - The ratio data for these commodities are also provided, e.g., the ratio of INE crude oil was 0.1397 on October 22 [7]. Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from October 16 - 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of rubber was - 750 yuan/ton on October 22 [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was - 10 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from October 16 - 22, 2025, are shown. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2208 yuan/ton on October 22 [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from October 16 - 22, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 162.0 yuan/ton on October 22 [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 53 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from October 16 - 22, 2025, are shown. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.95 on October 22 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 16 - 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper was - 450 yuan/ton on October 22 [28]. London Market - LME data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 22, 2025, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss, are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (6.36) [31]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from October 16 - 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 77 yuan/ton on October 22 [39]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [38]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from October 16 - 22, 2025, are shown. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.90 on October 22 [38]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 16 - 22, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 29.17 on October 22 [50]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter, are provided. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 37.8 [52].
全品种价差日报-20251023
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 01:49
Report Overview - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties on October 23, 2025, with data from Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [2] Commodity Market Analysis Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF601), the futures price is 5578, the spot price is 5538, the basis is 40, and the historical quantile is 61.20% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM601), the futures price is 5810, the spot price is 5950, the basis is -140, and the historical quantile is 50.80% [1] - For rebar (RB2601), the futures price is 3068, the spot price is 3210, the basis is 142, and the historical quantile is 61.40% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2601), the futures price is 3247, the spot price is 3280, the basis is 33, and the historical quantile is 31.80% [1] - For iron ore (I2601), the futures price is 838, the spot price is 774, the basis is 64, and the historical quantile is 51.30% [1] - For coke (J2601), the futures price is 1624, the spot price is 1710, the basis is -86, and the historical quantile is 19.55% [1] - For coking coal (JM2601), the futures price is 1293, the spot price is 1210, the basis is 83, and the historical quantile is 46.90% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2512), the futures price is 85420, the spot price is 84955, the basis is -465, and the historical quantile is 12.50% [1] - For aluminum (AL2512), the futures price is 20980, the spot price is 21045, the basis is -65, and the historical quantile is 31.87% [1] - For zinc (ZN2512), the futures price is 21830, the spot price is 22000, the basis is -170, and the historical quantile is 17.50% [1] - For tin (SN2511), the futures price is 281000, the spot price is 281680, the basis is -680, and the historical quantile is 28.12% [1] - For nickel (NI2512), the futures price is 121380, the spot price is 121250, the basis is -130, and the historical quantile is 46.25% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2512), the futures price is 12710, the spot price is 13170, the basis is 460, and the historical quantile is 85.40% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2511), the futures price is 9350, the spot price is 8485, the basis is 865, and the historical quantile is 58.64% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2512), the futures price is 948.8, the spot price is 952.6, the basis is -3.8, and the historical quantile is 14.60% [1] - For silver (AG2512), the futures price is 11381.0, the spot price is 11404.0, the basis is -23.0, and the historical quantile is 40.90% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2601), the futures price is 2885.0, the spot price is 2850, the basis is -35.0, and the historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2601), the futures price is 8238.0, the spot price is 8380, the basis is 142.0, and the historical quantile is 28.70% [1] - For palm oil (P2601), the futures price is 9164.0, the spot price is 9090, the basis is -74.0, and the historical quantile is 7.40% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM601), the futures price is 2307.0, the spot price is 2450, the basis is 143.0, and the historical quantile is 71.90% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI601), the futures price is 9834.0, the spot price is 10160, the basis is 326.0, and the historical quantile is 82.60% [1] - For corn (C2601), the futures price is 2133.0, the spot price is 2180, the basis is 47.0, and the historical quantile is 64.90% [1] - For corn starch (CS2601), the futures price is 2426.0, the spot price is 2550, the basis is 124.0, and the historical quantile is 63.30% [1] - For live pigs (LH2601), the futures price is 11950, the spot price is 12220.0, the basis is -270.0, and the historical quantile is 35.70% [1] - For eggs (JD2512), the futures price is 2925.0, the spot price is 2780, the basis is -145.0, and the historical quantile is 22.50% [1] - For cotton (CF601), the futures price is 13535.0, the spot price is 14643, the basis is 1108.0, and the historical quantile is 73.30% [1] - For white sugar (SR601), the futures price is 5426.0, the spot price is 5800, the basis is 374.0, and the historical quantile is 64.50% [1] - For apples (AP601), the futures price is 8840, the spot price is 8794.0, the basis is -46.0, and the historical quantile is 24.10% [1] - For red dates (CJ601), the futures price is 11265.0, the spot price is 9600, the basis is -1665.0, and the historical quantile is 27.10% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX601), the futures price is 6553.0, the spot price is 6450.0, the basis is -103.0, and the historical quantile is 12.30% [1] - For PTA (TA601), the futures price is 4390.0, the spot price is 4482.0, the basis is -92.0, and the historical quantile is 20.00% [1] - For ethylene glycol (EG2601), the futures price is 4135.0, the spot price is 4051.0, the basis is 84.0, and the historical quantile is 75.00% [1] - For polyester staple fiber (PF512), the futures price is 6136.0, the spot price is 6300.0, the basis is 164.0, and the historical quantile is 74.20% [1] - For styrene (EB2511), the futures price is 6538.0, the spot price is 6510.0, the basis is -28.0, and the historical quantile is 75.20% [1] - For methanol (MA601), the futures price is 2242.0, the spot price is 2261.0, the basis is -19.0, and the historical quantile is 54.10% [1] - For urea (UR601), the futures price is 1621.0, the spot price is 1540.0, the basis is -81.0, and the historical quantile is 5.40% [1] - For LLDPE (L2601), the futures price is 6936.0, the spot price is 6970.0, the basis is 34.0, and the historical quantile is 57.00% [1] - For PP (PP2601), the futures price is 6540.0, the spot price is 6619.0, the basis is -79.0, and the historical quantile is 48.30% [1] - For PVC (V2601), the futures price is 4600.0, the spot price is 4719.0, the basis is -119.0, and the historical quantile is 32.80% [1] - For caustic soda (SH601), the futures price is 2562.5, the spot price is 2380.0, the basis is 182.5, and the historical quantile is 70.90% [1] - For LPG (PG2512), the futures price is 4398.0, the spot price is 4174.0, the basis is 224.0, and the historical quantile is 47.90% [1] - For asphalt (BU2601), the futures price is 3330.0, the spot price is 3249.0, the basis is 81.0, and the historical quantile is 93.40% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2512), the futures price is 11050.0, the spot price is 11200.0, the basis is 150.0, and the historical quantile is 61.70% [1] - For glass (FG601), the futures price is 1040.0, the spot price is 1094.0, the basis is -54.0, and the historical quantile is 56.51% [1] - For soda ash (SA601), the futures price is 1223.0, the spot price is 1173.0, the basis is -50.0, and the historical quantile is 20.79% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2601), the futures price is 15150.0, the spot price is 14400.0, the basis is -750.0, and the historical quantile is 50.00% [1] Financial Futures - For IF2512.CFE, the futures price is 4563.4, the spot price is 4592.6, the basis is -29.2, and the historical quantile is 13.80% [1] - For IH2512.CFE, the futures price is 3005.6, the spot price is 3010.1, the basis is -4.5, and the historical quantile is 36.00% [1] - For IC2512.CFE, the futures price is 7011.6, the spot price is 7128.5, the basis is -116.9, and the historical quantile is 1.80% [1] - For IM2512.CFE, the futures price is 7163.2, the spot price is 7312.2, the basis is -149.0, and the historical quantile is 10.10% [1] - For 2 - year bond (TS2512), the futures price is 99.94, the spot price is 102.37, the basis is -0.02, and the historical quantile is 20.00% [1] - For 5 - year bond (TF2512), the futures price is 99.39, the spot price is 105.72, the basis is -0.04, and the historical quantile is 21.80% [1] - For 10 - year bond (T2512), the futures price is 100.19, the spot price is 108.10, the basis is 0.05, and the historical quantile is 21.10% [1] - For 30 - year bond (TL2512), the futures price is 129.31, the spot price is 114.48, the basis is 0.28, and the historical quantile is 37.50% [1]
全品种价差日报-20251022
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 02:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core View The report presents the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, historical quantile, and spot reference of various commodities across different sectors including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemicals, and financial futures on October 22, 2025 [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: The conversion price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5528, the previous price was 5474, with a change of 0.99% and a historical quantile of 62.50% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The price is 5950, the previous price was 5746, a change of 3.59% and a historical quantile of 61.30%. The conversion price is 6517 for silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price is 3200, the previous price was 3047, a change of 5.02% and a historical quantile of 64.10%. The reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The price is 3270, the previous price was 3219, a change of 1.58% and a historical quantile of 40.50%. The reference is Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The price is 835, the previous price was 770, a change of 8.54% and a historical quantile of 52.30%. The conversion price is for 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The price is 1603, the previous price was 1672, a change of - 4.15% and a historical quantile of 27.76%. The conversion price is for quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The price is 1277, the previous price was 1177, a change of 8.50% and a historical quantile of 51.20%. The conversion price is for S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: The spot price is 85730, the futures price is 85400, the basis is 330, the basis rate is 0.39%, and the historical quantile is 78.33%. The reference is the SMM 1 computer copper average price [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2512)**: The spot price is 20970, the futures price is 20965, the basis is 5, the basis rate is 0.02%, and the historical quantile is 60.00%. The reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The spot price is 2900, the futures price is 2810, the basis is 90, the basis rate is 3.21%, and the historical quantile is 50.66%. The reference is the SMM alumina average price [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The spot price is 21870, the futures price is 21970, the basis is - 100, the basis rate is - 0.46%, and the historical quantile is 33.33%. The reference is the SMM 1 zinc ingot average price [1]. - **Tin (SN2511)**: The spot price is 281300, the futures price is 280870, the basis is 430, the basis rate is 0.15%, and the historical quantile is 63.12%. The reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - **Nickel (NISE12)**: The spot price is 121700, the futures price is 121180, the basis is 520, the basis rate is 0.43%, and the historical quantile is 82.08%. The reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: The spot price is 13170, the futures price is 12665, the basis is 505, the basis rate is 3.99%, and the historical quantile is 89.91%. The reference is 304/2B 2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fees) [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2601)**: The spot price is 74100, the futures price is 75980, the basis is - 1880, the basis rate is - 2.47%, and the historical quantile is 27.53%. The reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The spot price is 9350, the futures price is 8505, the basis is 845, the basis rate is 9.94%, and the historical quantile is 57.93%. The reference is the SMM average price [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: The spot price is 986.9, the futures price is 994.1, the basis is - 7.2, the basis rate is - 0.72%, and the historical quantile is 0.20%. The reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - **Silver (AG2512)**: The spot price is 11759.0, the futures price is 11805.0, the basis is - 46.0, the basis rate is - 0.39%, and the historical quantile is 11.00%. The reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The spot price is 2870, the futures price is 2889.0, the basis is - 19.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile is 32.20%. The reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price is 8460, the futures price is 8294.0, the basis is 166.0, the basis rate is 2.00%, and the historical quantile is 34.00%. The reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The spot price is 9260, the futures price is 9294.0, the basis is - 34.0, the basis rate is - 0.37%, and the historical quantile is 13.80%. The reference is the delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The spot price is 2480, the futures price is 2321.0, the basis is 159.0, the basis rate is 6.85%, and the historical quantile is 73.40%. The reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Guangdong Zhanjiang [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: The spot price is 10210, the futures price is 9864.0, the basis is 346.0, the basis rate is 3.51%, and the historical quantile is 82.60%. The reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Nantong [1]. - **Corn (C2601)**: The spot price is 2180, the futures price is 2144.0, the basis is 36.0, the basis rate is 1.68%, and the historical quantile is 57.90%. The reference is the flat - hatch price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: The spot price is 2550, the futures price is 2429.0, the basis is 121.0, the basis rate is 4.98%, and the historical quantile is 61.50%. The reference is the ex - factory price of corn starch in Jilin Changchun [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: The spot price is 11450, the futures price is 12235.0, the basis is - 785.0, the basis rate is - 6.42%, and the historical quantile is 22.50%. The reference is the ex - factory price of live hogs (outer ternary) in Henan [1]. - **Eggs (JD2512)**: The spot price is 2780, the futures price is 2946.0, the basis is - 166.0, the basis rate is - 5.63%, and the historical quantile is 21.10%. The reference is the average price of eggs in Hebei Shijiazhuang [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The spot price is 14586, the futures price is 13540.0, the basis is 1046.0, the basis rate is 7.73%, and the historical quantile is 63.70%. The reference is the arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price is 5810, the futures price is 5438.0, the basis is 372.0, the basis rate is 6.84%, and the historical quantile is 63.80%. The reference is the spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The spot price is 8840, the futures price is 8850.0, the basis is - 10.0, the basis rate is - 0.11%, and the historical quantile is 17.10%. The reference is the delivery theoretical price of apples [1]. - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: The spot price is 9600, the futures price is 11380.0, the basis is - 1780.0, the basis rate is - 15.64%, and the historical quantile is 22.30%. The reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX601)**: The spot price is 6431.0, the futures price is 6332.0, the basis is 99.0, the basis rate is 1.60%, and the historical quantile is 12.30%. The reference is the spot price (CFR) of para - xylene at Chinese main ports converted into RMB [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The spot price is 4330.0, the futures price is 4414.0, the basis is - 84.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile is 20.00%. The reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The spot price is 4100.0, the futures price is 4004.0, the basis is 96.0, the basis rate is 1.05%, and the historical quantile is 75.00%. The reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF512)**: The spot price is 6285.0, the futures price is 6070.0, the basis is 215.0, the basis rate is 2.19%, and the historical quantile is 74.20%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market [1]. - **Styrene (EB2511)**: The spot price is 6465.0, the futures price is 6438.0, the basis is 27.0, the basis rate is 4.64%, and the historical quantile is 75.20%. The reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The spot price is 2262.0, the futures price is 2268.0, the basis is - 6.0, the basis rate is - 0.27%, and the historical quantile is 54.00%. The reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang, China [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The spot price is 1540.0, the futures price is 1609.0, the basis is - 69.0, the basis rate is - 2.24%, and the historical quantile is 5.40%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The spot price is 6945.0, the futures price is 6883.0, the basis is 62.0, the basis rate is 1.86%, and the historical quantile is 56.90%. The reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The spot price is 6540.0, the futures price is 6583.0, the basis is - 43.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile is 48.20%. The reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The spot price is 4600.0, the futures price is 4699.0, the basis is - 99.0, the basis rate is - 3.7%, and the historical quantile is 32.70%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The spot price is 2562.5, the futures price is 2375.0, the basis is 187.5, the basis rate is 5.34%, and the historical quantile is 71.00%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market converted to 100% [1]. - **LPG (PG2512)**: The spot price is 4448.0, the futures price is 4091.0, the basis is 357.0, the basis rate is 6.40%, and the historical quantile is 47.80%. The reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: The spot price is 3340.0, the futures price is 3157.0, the basis is 183.0, the basis rate is 11.40%, and the historical quantile is 93.40%. The reference is the market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2512)**: The spot price is 11000.0, the futures price
生猪:供应后置,中枢继续下移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 02:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs is postponed, and the price center continues to move down [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 11,280 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 10,800 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong is 11,460 yuan/ton, with year - on - year increases of 150 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,165 yuan/ton, 11,905 yuan/ton, and 11,540 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 235 yuan/ton, 290 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig futures contract 2511 is 33,489 lots, a decrease of 9,492 lots from the previous day, with an open interest of 41,232 lots, a decrease of 3,573 lots. The trading volume of contract 2601 is 80,026 lots, an increase of 28,549 lots, with an open interest of 105,012 lots, an increase of 14,112 lots. The trading volume of contract 2603 is 16,872 lots, an increase of 951 lots, with an open interest of 77,419 lots, an increase of 1,948 lots [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Shennong's Yunnan and Guangxi warehouses registered 90 lots of warehouse receipts, and Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view [3]. 3.4 Futures Research - **Basis**: The basis of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 55 yuan/ton, 365 yuan/ton, and - 165 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 115 yuan/ton, 385 yuan/ton, and - 625 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of live pig futures contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are 440 yuan/ton and - 260 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 275 yuan/ton and - 740 yuan/ton [4].
棕榈油:提税支持B50,关注棕油下方支撑:区间运行,关注中美经贸关系
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 02:17
Report Title - Palm Oil: Tax Increase Supports B50, Focus on Downward Support for Palm Oil; Soybean Oil: Range-Bound, Monitor China-US Economic and Trade Relations [1] Report Date - October 17, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Palm oil is supported by tax increase for B50, and attention should be paid to its downward support; soybean oil is expected to trade within a range, and the China-US economic and trade relations should be monitored [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are presented, along with trading volume and open interest changes [1] - **Spot Data**: Spot prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and Malaysian palm oil are provided, as well as spot basis data [1] - **Spread Data**: Futures spreads between different oil varieties and spreads within the same variety are given, including changes compared to previous trading days [1] Macro and Industry News - From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.76% month-on-month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month-on-month, and production increased by 6.86% month-on-month, according to SPPOMA data [2] - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.5% due to strong domestic demand offsetting trade concerns [3] - China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums [4] - Speculative funds net bought 3500 lots of soybeans on Thursday, compared to 4000 lots on Wednesday [4] - The NOPA's September soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, a 4.24% increase from the previous month and an 11.6% increase year-on-year, setting the fourth-highest monthly record and the highest for the same period in history [4] - The US urged South Korea to increase soybean imports [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [6]
光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报-20251016
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:27
Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated October 16, 2025, provided by Guangqi Research [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents daily monitoring data on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and variety spreads, along with relevant policy adjustments to the iron ore futures contract delivery rules [3][5][10] Summary by Directory Futures Contracts and Spreads - **Contract Prices**: I05 closed at 754.0 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 733.0 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan; I01 closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan [3] - **Contract Spreads**: The I05 - I09 spread was 21.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; the I09 - I01 spread was -43.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; the I01 - I05 spread was 22.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3] Basis - **Basis Data**: The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes. For example, the basis of BRBF increased by 2 yuan to 60 yuan/ton, and the basis of super special powder increased by 3 yuan to 148 yuan/ton [5] - **Basis Policy Adjustments**: Starting from December 2nd, the main iron ore contract is I2205. The delivery rules have been adjusted, including adding 4 deliverable varieties, adjusting brand premiums and discounts, and modifying substitute quality differences and quality premiums and discounts [10] Variety Spreads - **Spread Data**: The PB block - PB powder spread was 131.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; the PB powder - super special powder spread was 72.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan [12] - **Spread Charts**: The report provides multiple spread charts to visually display the changes in spreads over time [13][17]
生猪:现货底部未现,近月升水偏大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:42
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Report's Core View - The spot bottom of live pigs has not appeared, and the premium of near - month contracts is relatively large [1] - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's live pig spot price is 11,330 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; Sichuan's is 11,250 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; and Guangdong's is 12,060 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,595 yuan/ton (down 700 yuan), 12,165 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan), and 11,970 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 50,927 lots (down 7,793 lots) and the open interest is 58,336 lots (down 17,117 lots); for the 2601 contract, the trading volume is 40,716 lots (up 3,662 lots) and the open interest is 84,790 lots (up 8,369 lots); for the 2603 contract, the trading volume is 16,259 lots (up 1,932 lots) and the open interest is 57,549 lots (up 4,944 lots) [2] - **Price Differences**: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are - 265 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan), - 835 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan), and - 640 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan) respectively; the 11 - 1 spread is - 570 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread is 195 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan) [2]
全品种价差日报-20250930
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Categories Black Series - Silicon Iron (SF511): Futures price is 5678, spot price is 5610, basis is 68, basis rate is 1.21%, historical quantile is 90% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM601): Futures price is 5950, spot price is 5820, basis is 130, basis rate is 2.23%, historical quantile is 30% [1] - Rebar (RB2601): Futures price is 3240, spot price is 3097, basis is 143, basis rate is 4.62%, historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601): Futures price is 3289, spot price is 3350, basis is -61, basis rate is -1.85%, historical quantile is 44.00% [1] - Iron Ore (I2601): Futures price is 837, spot price is 784, basis is 53, basis rate is 6.80%, historical quantile is 44.70% [1] - Coke (J2601): Futures price is 1647, spot price is 1613, basis is 34, basis rate is 2.09%, historical quantile is 44.16% [1] - Coking Coal (JM2601): Futures price is 1160, spot price is 1154, basis is 6, basis rate is 0.52%, historical quantile is 24.80% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2511): Futures price is 82370, spot price is 85510, basis is -3140, basis rate is -3.67%, historical quantile is 28.75% [1] - Aluminum (AL2511): Futures price is 20690, spot price is 20730, basis is -40, basis rate is -0.19%, historical quantile is 41.04% [1] - Alumina (AO2601): Futures price is 2904, spot price is 2982, basis is 78, basis rate is 2.61%, historical quantile is 49.55% [1] - Zinc (ZN2511): Futures price is 21560, spot price is 21800, basis is -240, basis rate is -1.10%, historical quantile is 20.83% [1] - Tin (SN2511): Futures price is 272410, spot price is 271400, basis is 1010, basis rate is 0.37%, historical quantile is 61.45% [1] - Nickel (NI2511): Futures price is 121100, spot price is 121200, basis is -100, basis rate is -0.08%, historical quantile is 300 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2511): Futures price is 13220, spot price is 12760, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.61%, historical quantile is 86.69% [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2511): Futures price is 73920, spot price is 73550, basis is -370, basis rate is -0.50%, historical quantile is 49.11% [1] - Industrial Silicon (SI2511): Futures price is 8610, spot price is 840, basis is 7770, basis rate is 9.25%, historical quantile is 57.93% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512): Futures price is 866.5, spot price is 865, basis is -1.5, basis rate is -0.17%, historical quantile is 11.80% [1] - Silver (AG2512): Futures price is 10939, spot price is 10878, basis is -61, basis rate is -0.56%, historical quantile is 5.30% [1] Agricultural Products - Rapeseed Meal (RM601): Futures price is 2416, spot price is 2530, basis is 114, basis rate is 4.72%, historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - Rapeseed Oil (Ole01): Futures price is 10093, spot price is 10340, basis is 247, basis rate is 2.45%, historical quantile is 75.90% [1] - Corn (C2511): Futures price is 2159, spot price is 2280, basis is 121, basis rate is 5.60%, historical quantile is 92.40% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2511): Futures price is 2483, spot price is 2550, basis is 67, basis rate is 2.70%, historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - Soybean Meal (NSe01): Futures price is 2890, spot price is 2933, basis is -43, basis rate is -1.47%, historical quantile is 29.90% [1] - Soybean Oil (V2601): Futures price is 8150, spot price is 8300, basis is 150, basis rate is 1.84%, historical quantile is 30.00% [1] - Palm Oil (P2601): Futures price is 9234, spot price is 9318, basis is -84, basis rate is -0.90%, historical quantile is 6.00% [1] - Cotton (CF601): Futures price is 13350, spot price is 14942, basis is 1592, basis rate is 11.93%, historical quantile is 7.50% [1] - Sugar (SR601): Futures price is 5479, spot price is 5890, basis is 411, basis rate is 7.00%, historical quantile is 73.90% [1] - Apple (AP601): Futures price is 8486, spot price is 8600, basis is 114, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 25.80% [1] - Red Dates (C601): Futures price is 10915, spot price is 9500, basis is -1415, basis rate is -14.86%, historical quantile is 33.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX511): Futures price is 6686.1, spot price is 6670, basis is -16.1, basis rate is -0.24%, historical quantile is 29.30% [1] - PTA (TA601): Futures price is 4585, spot price is 4652, basis is 67, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 28.60% [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2601): Futures price is 4295, spot price is 4224, basis is -71, basis rate is -1.68%, historical quantile is 83.80% [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511): Futures price is 6435, spot price is 6336, basis is -99, basis rate is -1.54%, historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - Styrene (EB251): Futures price is 6915, spot price is 6932, basis is -17, basis rate is -0.25%, historical quantile is 23.30% [1] - Methanol (MA601): Futures price is 2250, spot price is 2262, basis is -12, basis rate is -0.53%, historical quantile is 11.40% [1] - LLDPE (L2601): Futures price is 7175, spot price is 7181, basis is -6, basis rate is -0.08%, historical quantile is 20.00% [1] - PP (PP2601): Futures price is 6785, spot price is 6903, basis is -118, basis rate is -1.71%, historical quantile is 4.10% [1] - PVC (V2601): Futures price is 4896, spot price is 4730, basis is -166, basis rate is -3.40%, historical quantile is 35.30% [1] - Caustic Soda (SH601): Futures price is 2515, spot price is 2500, basis is -15, basis rate is -0.60%, historical quantile is 45.80% [1] - LPG (PG2511): Futures price is 4548, spot price is 4293, basis is 255, basis rate is 5.94%, historical quantile is 47.30% [1] - Asphalt (BU2511): Futures price is 3466, spot price is 3500, basis is 34, basis rate is 0.98%, historical quantile is 60.00% [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2511): Futures price is 11500, spot price is 11340, basis is 160, basis rate is 1.41%, historical quantile is 45.10% [1] - Glass (FG601): Futures price is 1128, spot price is 1228, basis is -100, basis rate is -8.14%, historical quantile is 33.54% [1] - Soda Ash (SA601): Futures price is 1188, spot price is 1278, basis is -90, basis rate is -7.04%, historical quantile is 18.00% [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2601): Futures price is 15470, spot price is 14700, basis is -770, basis rate is -5.08%, historical quantile is 14.00% [1] Financial Futures - IF2512.CFF: Futures price is 4604.6, spot price is 4620.1, basis is -15.5, basis rate is -0.34%, historical quantile is 28.30% [1] - IH2512.CHE: Futures price is 2973, spot price is 2976, basis is 3, basis rate is 0.10%, historical quantile is 73.80% [1] - IC2512.CFE: Futures price is 7232.2, spot price is 7350.6, basis is -118.4, basis rate is -1.61%, historical quantile is 1.10% [1] - IM2512.CFE: Futures price is 7337.4, spot price is 7497.8, basis is -160.4, basis rate is -2.14%, historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - 2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512): Futures price is 102.33, spot price is 102.34, basis is -0.01, basis rate is -0.01%, historical quantile is 21.90% [1] - 5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512): Futures price is 105.51, spot price is 99.22, basis is -0.01, basis rate is -0.01%, historical quantile is 25.40% [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512): Futures price is 107.66, spot price is 105.87, basis is 0.21, basis rate is 0.19%, historical quantile is 42.40% [4] - 30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512): Futures price is 113.79, spot price is 120.74, basis is 0.36, basis rate is 0.32%, historical quantile is 51.20% [4]
《金融》日报-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data and changes in various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals, container shipping, etc., which can help investors understand the market trends and price movements of these products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF**: The current - spot spread is 4.78, with a 23.30% change from the previous day and a 12.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Various inter - term spreads also show different values and changes [1]. - **IH**: The current - spot spread is 0.86, with a 0.57 change from the previous day and a 59.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Different inter - term spreads have their own values and quantiles [1]. - **IC**: The current - spot spread is 1.60%, with a 0.10% change from the previous day and a 25.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Inter - term spreads vary [1]. - **IM**: The current - spot spread is - 224.71, with a 6.31 change from the previous day and a 25.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Inter - term spreads are also provided [1]. - **Cross - variety ratios**: Such as CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., show different values and changes [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **TS**: The basis is 0.0177, with a 0.0235 change from the previous day and a 12.80% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are also presented [2]. - **TF**: The basis is 1.1992, with a 0.1310 change from the previous day and a 41.50% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are given [2]. - **T**: The basis is - 0.1123, with a 0.5994 change from the previous day and a 2.50% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are provided [2]. - **TL**: The basis is 0.0860, with a 0.0140 change from the previous day and a 43.30% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are included [2]. Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures**: The AU2512 contract closed at 854.72 on September 25, down 0.61% from the previous day; the AG2512 contract closed at 10411, up 0.13% [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 3780.50 on September 25, up 0.32% from the previous day; the COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 45.47, up 3.07% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3748.41 on September 25, up 0.34% from the previous day; London silver was at 45.13, up 2.83% [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - SHFE gold主力 was - 2.73, with a 1.00 change from the previous day and a 43.30% historical 1 - year quantile; silver TD - SHFE silver主力 was - 58, with a - 10 change from the previous day and a 2.40% historical 1 - year quantile [3]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver was 83.14, down 2.67% from the previous day; SHFE gold/silver was 82.10, down 0.75% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18, up 0.5% from the previous day; the US dollar index was 98.46, up 0.61% [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory was 65634 kg on September 25, up 8.41% from the previous day; SHFE silver inventory was 1156855 kg, down 0.43% [3]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: On September 26, MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate was 1622 USD/FEU, down 2.47% from the previous day; CMA CGM's was 1904, up 4.96% [4]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on September 22 was 1254.92, down 12.87% from September 15; the SCFI comprehensive index on September 19 was 1198.21, down 14.30% from September 12 [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract on September 25 was 1696.2, up 6.81% from the previous day; the basis of the main contract was - 227.4, with a 4393.68% change from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply on September 26 was 3310.22 TEU, with no change from the previous day; the Shanghai port on - time rate in August was 18.31%, down 43.80% from July [4].