Report Overview - Report Title: 20250801 Cotton Series Monthly Report: Weakening De-stocking Expectations due to Negative Demand Feedback, Waiting for Cotton Prices to Find the Bottom in the Off-season [1] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Team: Agricultural Products Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The negative feedback in demand has weakened the de-stocking expectations, and it is necessary to wait for cotton prices to find the bottom in the off-season [1] - In the short term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bearish. For short positions, consider gradually reducing positions to take profits, and pay attention to the opportunity of low-cost long positions in far-month contracts after the market risk is further released [2] Summary by Directory Macro - According to the consensus of the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures as scheduled. Pay attention to Trump's final decision before August 12 [2] - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Recently, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has cooled sharply under the impact of Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks [2] - The domestic Politburo meeting continued to mention "making progress while maintaining stability", "timely increasing efforts", "implementing in detail", "boosting consumption", and "governing disorderly competition", and continued to promote the acceleration of the domestic cycle [2] Supply - **International**: The soil conditions in the main cotton-producing areas have weakened slightly. The non-drought rate has decreased to 93% under the influence of drought in the Midwest, but it is still much higher than the same period. The latest good-to-excellent rate of US cotton is 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The supply pressure in the US cotton area has weakened. In India, 9.86 million hectares of new cotton have been planted, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. The spot cotton price has stopped rising and fallen, and the CCI has cumulatively auctioned and sold 1.22 million tons of cotton. In Brazil, the latest harvest progress has reached 21.7%, with the harvest progress in the main producing state of Bahia at 40% and that in the state of Mato Grosso at 12.6% [2] - **Domestic**: Xinjiang cotton has entered the flowering and boll-forming stage. The actual sown area of cotton is 45.803 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. It is estimated that the yield per mu of new cotton in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and the guaranteed output is expected to be raised to 7.4 million tons. The high-temperature weather in August is expected to gradually improve compared with July, and the probability of weather speculation is low. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The import volume of cotton yarn in June was 110,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The total import volume of cotton resources was basically the same as that in May, and no quota policy has been introduced [2] Inventory - **Domestic**: The total industrial and commercial inventory is slightly lower than that of the same period last year by about 40,000 tons, and the inventory in Xinjiang is lower than that of the same period by about 200,000 tons. It is estimated that the national commercial inventory by early September will be comparable to the average level of the past five years. Pay attention to the possible slowdown in the recent de-stocking speed. At the finished product end, the replenishment of cotton yarn and grey cloth has slowed down significantly this week, and the negative feedback expectation after the weakening of the downstream replenishment willingness is gradually reflected in the market [2] - **International**: In May 2025, the inventory value of clothing and clothing fabrics of US wholesalers was $28.636 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.73% and a month-on-month increase of 0.49%. The inventory value of retailers in May was $58.056 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.47% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.49%. The overall inventory level of US clothing is still relatively neutral, and the inventory at the retail end needs further de-stocking [2] Demand - **Domestic**: The orders of textile enterprises have dropped to the lowest level in the past five years. The operating rates of weaving mills and spinning mills have accelerated their decline and are lower than those of the same period. The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have been running at a recent low level. The overall price center of clothing fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market has improved, which may indicate that the foreign trade situation is not overly pessimistic. In June 2025, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, affected by the slowdown in the export growth rate of textiles, the export growth rate of clothing and textiles has further slowed down. The US market performed slightly better than last month, and the ASEAN and EU markets were relatively stable. Pay attention to whether the extension of China-US tariffs can be finally confirmed [2] - **International**: The soil moisture in the main producing areas of US cotton has slightly deteriorated but is still suitable for the growth of new cotton. The trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing, and the export demand for US cotton in the second half of the year still needs to be viewed with caution [2] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (July) - **Production**: In the 2025/26 season, the global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month-on-month to 25.78 million tons. Among them, China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons month-on-month to 6.749 million tons, the US production is expected to increase by 131,000 tons month-on-month to 3.048 million tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 1.089 million tons [3] - **Consumption**: In the 2025/26 season, the global consumption is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month-on-month to 25.718 million tons. Among them, Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 2.373 million tons, and the remaining small countries will share the rest [4] - **Trade**: In the 2025/26 season, the global imports and exports are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month-on-month. Among them, China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons month-on-month to 1.263 million tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 1.284 million tons [4] - **Ending Inventory**: In the 2025/26 season, the global ending inventory is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month-on-month to 16.833 million tons. Among them, China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 8.07 million tons, and the US ending inventory is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 1.001 million tons [4] Cotton Futures and Spot - The cotton price rose and then fell within the month, and the basis level remained high [5] Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - The futures price of cotton yarn rose and then fell within the month, and the basis performance was weaker than that of cotton [12] Supply Details - The actual sown area of US cotton is higher than expected, and the drought in the Midwest has pushed the good-to-excellent rate to decline slightly. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The non-drought rate in the main cotton-producing areas of the US decreased by 3% to 93%, which is 45% higher than the same period. The drought situation has slightly increased, but the soil moisture is still at the best level in the past five years, and the abandonment rate has dropped to 14.427% [14][15] - The de-stocking of raw materials has been relatively fast, but the replenishment of gauze has slowed down significantly this week. This week, the national industrial and commercial inventory decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons, lower than the same period by 37,600 tons; the commercial inventory in Xinjiang decreased to 1.7257 million tons within the month, lower than the same period by 204,600 tons; the commercial inventory in the inland decreased to 768,100 tons this week, lower than the same period by 155,100 tons. At the finished product end, the available days of pure cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.04 days to 31.86 days, the terminal grey cloth inventory increased by 0.28 days to 30.74 days, and the inventory of polyester-cotton yarn in the factory increased by 0.8 days to 28.58 days [16][17] - In June, the import of cotton resources in China did not continue to shrink. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of about 82.1%; from January to June, China imported about 460,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of about 74.3%. According to customs statistics, in June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 0.1% and a month-on-month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 10%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 670,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to June 2025), the cumulative import of cotton yarn was about 1.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.18% [18][19] - The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts has accelerated slightly, and the high-sugar warehouse receipts limit the short squeeze. As of July 31, there were 8,940 registered warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou cotton, a decrease of 1,271 within the month, and 348 valid forecasts. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 9,288, equivalent to 371,500 tons of cotton. Among the warehouse receipts, the cotton resources from Eastern Xinjiang account for a relatively large proportion this year, and the problem of high sugar content in some warehouse receipts continues to limit their outflow under the current tight inventory expectations [20][21] Demand Details - The operating rates of spinning and weaving mills have accelerated their decline, and the losses of textile enterprises have deepened further. This week, the operating rate of spinning mills decreased by 1.9% to 67.6%, lower than the same period by 2.9%; the operating rate of weaving mills decreased by 0.7% to 38.2%, lower than the same period by 1.4%. The year-on-year difference in operating rates has gradually widened compared with the same period last year. The orders of textile enterprises decreased by 0.33 days to 6.94 days, lower than the same period by 2.73 days, and the difference has further expanded compared with last week. From the perspective of spinning profits, the spot profit of the mainstream yarn count within the week dropped to -1,938 yuan/ton, and the expected profit per ton of enterprises in Xinjiang dropped to less than 100 yuan [22][23] - The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have continued to weaken, and the prices of fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market have shown a differentiated trend within the week. In the Light Textile City, the latest total transaction volume this week increased by 24,000 meters to 4.892 million meters, and the cotton cloth transaction volume decreased by 30,000 meters to 240,000 meters. In the Keqiao market, the price of accessories increased by 2.17 to 116.44 this week, and the fabric price decreased by 0.19 to 110.66 [24][26] - In June, the export of clothing and textiles decreased slightly year-on-year, and the performance of textiles continued to be weak. In terms of monthly values, the export of textile and clothing in June was $27.31 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. Among them, the export of textiles was $12.05 billion, a decrease of 1.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.6%, and the export of clothing was $15.27 billion, an increase of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. In terms of cumulative values, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing in China reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, the year-on-year export growth rates from April to June were all lower than that of the national goods trade. The main reason for the slowdown in export growth is that the US "reciprocal tariff" policy has had a greater impact on the textile and clothing industry chain. Although the "rush to export" of some enterprises has promoted the growth of clothing export data in May and June, the slowdown in exports to the US from ASEAN and South Asia has led to the drag of textiles on the overall export of clothing and textiles [28][30] - The export to the US has improved slightly, while the exports to ASEAN and the EU have shown a slowdown trend. In June, China's clothing exports to the US reached $3.189 billion, an increase of $607 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $239 million; China's textile exports to the US reached $4.428 billion, an increase of $973 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $339 million. China's clothing exports to the EU reached $3.092 billion, an increase of $425 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $4 million; China's textile exports to the EU reached $4.629 billion, an increase of $461 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $124 million. China's clothing exports to ASEAN reached $1.12 billion, an increase of $55 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $252 million; China's textile exports to ASEAN reached $3.788 billion, a decrease of $162 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $361 million [31][36] - In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry weakened, and the demand-related indicators continued to weaken. In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months. In terms of demand, the PMI of new orders increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the PMI of operating rates increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. In terms of inventory and production, the PMI of cotton yarn inventory increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94%. The weakening of demand and the inventory accumulation trend at the terminal continued [37][38] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non-commercial and fund investors have rebounded slightly [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. The overall outlook indicates that cotton has returned to a weak position. The consumption off - season has led to insufficient orders, increased losses for textile enterprises, and reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The delay in Sino - US trade negotiations and the maintenance of the current tariff situation also contribute to the weakening of the cotton market [4]. - There are some positive factors such as the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period, as well as the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. However, negative factors include the approaching 3 - month trade relaxation period, the consumption off - season, the overall decline in foreign trade orders, and the increase in inventory [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production and consumption. ICAC's July report shows a production of 2590 million tons and consumption of 2560 million tons. USDA's July report indicates a production of 2578.3 million tons, consumption of 2571.8 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 million tons. China's rural department in July estimates a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,470 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 1715 yuan, showing a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: China's Ministry of Agriculture estimates an ending inventory of 823 million tons for the 2025/26 period in July, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is considered a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectations**: Sino - US trade negotiations continue to be postponed, and tariffs remain unchanged for the time being. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen below the 14,000 mark, and cotton has returned to a weak position [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In 2024/25, the total global cotton production is 2578.3 million tons, and the total consumption is 2571.8 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventories. For example, China's production is 675 million tons, and consumption is 794.7 million tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In 2024, the global cotton production is 2568.757 million tons, and the consumption is 2552.675 million tons, with an ending inventory of 1878.09 million tons [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In 2025/26, the estimated production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and the ending inventory is 823 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton [15]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.

20250726棉系周报： 宏观转暖不敌供需弱预期 仍需警惕回调风险 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年7月26日 周度综述：摘要 2 7月USDA供需平衡表总览——中美产量调增超消费，全球期末库存调增 | 棉花供需平衡表(7月) | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024/25 | 项目名称 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | | 2025/26 (6月) | 2025/26 (7月) | 环比变化 | 同比变化 1) | | 中国 | | 581.3 | 669.5 | 595.5 | 696.6 | 653.1 | 674.9 | 21.8 | -21.8 | | 印度 | | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 522.5 | 511.6 | 511.6 | 0.0 | -10.9 | | 巴西 | ...

大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月24日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判第三轮即将举行，关注谈判进程。前期抢出口订单基本结束，市 场对金九银十旺季有所期待。郑棉主力09走势明显强于01，可能临近交割月，期现价差回 归动力增加。09短期 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。5月份我国棉花进口3.45万吨，同比减少86.74%；棉纱进口 10万吨，同比减少14.55%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740 万吨，期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判三个月缓和期即将结束，虽然部分谈判取得进展，最后到期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。5月份我国棉花进口3.45万吨，同比减少86.74%；棉纱进口 10万吨，同比减少14.55%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740 万吨，期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15302，基差1452（09合约），升水 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bearish on the cotton industry [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The July report is bearish as global cotton production and ending stocks have been revised upwards, and the supply in the new season remains relatively loose, with international cotton prices expected to fluctuate at low levels [1][2] - The cotton in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries is still in the growing stage, and weather conditions should continue to be monitored [1][2] - Although there are some positive signals in China-US trade negotiations, the specific situation remains to be observed, and China-US relations have a significant impact on the demand for US cotton in the new season [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global cotton production in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 311,000 tons month-on-month, with China's production up 218,000 tons to 6.75 million tons and still having room for further increase, and US production up 131,000 tons due to increased planting and harvest areas and favorable weather [1] - **Consumption**: Global cotton consumption in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 80,000 tons month-on-month, with China's consumption unchanged and Pakistan's up 65,000 tons. Overall consumption is stable, but trade conflicts are numerous, and China-US relations significantly affect US cotton demand [1] - **Imports and Exports**: Global cotton imports in the 25/26 season have decreased by 30,000 tons month-on-month, with Pakistan's imports up 131,000 tons and China's down 152,000 tons to 1.263 million tons. Global exports have decreased by 21,000 tons, with no adjustments to major exporters [1] - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in the 25/26 season have increased by 114,000 tons month-on-month, with the US up 66,000 tons, Pakistan up 43,000 tons, and both China and India up 11,000 tons [2] Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton production is 25.783 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 311,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 323,000 tons [3] - **Consumption**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton consumption is 25.718 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 309,000 tons [3] - **Imports**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton imports are 9.728 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 450,000 tons [3] - **Exports**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton exports are 9.73 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 21,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 369,000 tons [3] - **Ending Stocks**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global ending stocks are 16.721 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 114,000 tons [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。5月份我国棉花进口3.45万吨，同比减少86.74%；棉纱进口 10万吨，同比减少14.55%。农村部6月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740 万吨，期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15295，基差1420（09合约），升水 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices fluctuated. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was moderately bearish, causing U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and imports are low. However, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand, making it difficult for cotton prices to improve. The Xinjiang new - season cotton is in the full - bloom stage, and the soil moisture is acceptable, with the recent high - temperature situation in the production area having eased. The strategy is that the USDA report suppresses U.S. cotton, while the rapid inventory reduction in China supports the futures market to fluctuate strongly. But weak downstream demand, increased new - season planting area, and the expected alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang will limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - This week, cotton fluctuated. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was moderately bearish, with increased planting area, decreased yield per unit, increased production, unchanged total consumption, and increased ending inventory. Globally, cotton production and ending inventory increased slightly. In China, supply and demand are both weak, with continuous consumption of commercial inventory and low imports. The new - season cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature has eased. The USDA report suppresses U.S. cotton, while rapid inventory reduction in China supports the futures market, but weak downstream demand and other factors will limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices [6]. 2. Market Review - As of the close on July 11, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.48%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,885 yuan per ton, up 105 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.76% [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Balance Sheet - U.S. Cotton - For the 2025/2026 season, the expected planting area is 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the expected harvested area is 8.66 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 470,000 acres; the expected yield per unit is 809 pounds per acre, a month - on - month decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the expected production is 14.6 million bales, a month - on - month increase of 600,000 bales; the expected total consumption is 14.2 million bales, unchanged from the previous month; the expected ending inventory is 4.6 million bales, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 bales [12][15]. External Cotton - U.S. Cotton Growth - As of the week of July 6, the U.S. cotton good - to - excellent rate was 52%, up from 51% the previous week and 45% in the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 14%, up from 9% the previous week, compared with 18% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 15%; the squaring rate was 48%, up from 40% the previous week, compared with 51% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 49% [19]. External Cotton - U.S. Cotton Exports - As of the week of July 3, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2024/2025 season were 75,000 bales, compared with 24,000 bales the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 82,000 bales, compared with 107,000 bales the previous week [23]. Domestic - Spinning Mill Operation - As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%. The overall operation changed little. The sales of inland spinning mills were slightly worse than those in Xinjiang. Some small inland spinning mills stopped production to handle inventory, while Xinjiang spinning mills maintained stable operation. Inland spinning mills operated at 50% - 70% capacity, and Xinjiang mills at 80% - 90% [27]. Domestic - Spinning Mill Inventory - As of the week of July 10, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.1 days of storage. As of July 10, the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.2 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%. Currently, downstream fabric mills operate at about 30% capacity, are not active in purchasing raw materials, and inventory is still accumulating. Large mills in Xinjiang have an inventory of 35 - 40 days, and inland enterprises have 20 - 28 days [31]. Domestic - Cotton Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.6063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 141,300 tons (a decrease of 5.14%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.7978 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 115,000 tons (a decrease of 6.01%); the commercial cotton in inland areas was 428,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,300 tons (a decrease of 1.68%). As of July 10, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 4.76% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380,300 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [34]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not elaborated in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the upward pressure on cotton prices remains significant, and the driving force is weak. Considering the global and domestic cotton market conditions, it is expected that the cotton price will face substantial upward pressure, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35]. Summary According to the Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - **Global 2025/26 Cotton Supply and Demand**: In the USDA's June report, for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, beginning/ending stocks, and trade volume are all adjusted downward. Production is cut by over 800,000 bales, with an increase in China's output and decreases in India, the US, and Pakistan. Consumption is reduced by over 300,000 bales. Ending stocks decline by nearly 1.6 million bales, and the stock - to - use ratio drops 0.2 percentage points month - on - month and 1.1 percentage points year - on - year. The global supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the production - consumption gap widens by 110,000 tons to - 170,000 tons [2]. - **US Cotton Supply and Weather**: The USDA's June report shows that for the 2025/26 season, US cotton production, beginning stocks, and ending stocks are adjusted downward month - on - month, while consumption, imports, and exports remain unchanged. Due to excessive rainfall and delayed sowing, the harvested area is cut by 2 percentage points to 8.19 million acres, and the average yield per acre drops by over 1 percentage point to 820 pounds/acre. The US cotton production is expected to be 14 million bales, 500,000 bales less than last month, the second - lowest in the past decade. Ending stocks are reduced by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. As of July 6, 2025, the US cotton (American cotton) good - to - excellent rate is 52%, slightly up from the previous week (51%) but lower than the same period last year (45%). The squaring rate is 48%, and the boll - setting rate is 14% [5][7]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - **Expected Domestic Cotton Production in 2025/26**: In 2024, the domestic weather was suitable during the new cotton planting and growing period, with a record - high yield per unit of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%, and the total national output was around 6.7 million tons. In June 2025, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System's survey shows that the actual sown area in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 2.707 million mu or 6.3%. The expected total output will increase by 2.8% to 6.864 million tons, and the report estimates the output may be around 7 million tons [10]. - **Current Domestic Cotton Commercial and Industrial Inventories**: As of June 15, the national cotton commercial inventory is 3.1269 million tons, in a stable destocking state; the national cotton industrial inventory is 0.9301 million tons. The commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, and the industrial inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history, showing a state of low upstream inventory and high downstream inventory [14]. - **Continuous Accumulation of Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventories**: As of the end of May 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises is 22.34 days, an increase of 1.3 days from last month and a decrease of 5.2 days year - on - year. The grey cloth inventory is 32.9 days, an increase of 1.7 days from last month and 2 days year - on - year. Yarn and grey cloth are continuously accumulating inventory [16][19]. - **Weak Textile and Apparel Export Performance**: The US is one of the main export destinations for China's textile and apparel. From January to May 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports are $116.67 billion, a 1% increase. Among them, textile exports are $58.48 billion, a 2.5% increase, and apparel exports are $58.2 billion, a 0.5% decrease. In May, textile and apparel exports are $26.21 billion, a 0.6% increase and an 8.4% month - on - month increase. Textile exports are $12.63 billion, a 1.9% decrease and a 0.4% month - on - month increase, and apparel exports are $13.58 billion, a 3% increase and a 17% month - on - month increase [23][25]. - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Consumption**: From January to May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are 20.3171 trillion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods are 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate rebounds by 1.3 percentage points month - on - month. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 122.5 billion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate expands by 1.8 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - **Poor Downstream Immediate Textile Profits**: As of the end of June, the domestic immediate yarn - cotton price difference is around 5,400 yuan/ton, continuously declining this year and at a relatively low historical level. In 2024, the overall yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton. Downstream textile enterprises have suffered large losses for a long time, which has a significant negative feedback on the upstream raw material prices, and the low downstream profits make it difficult to actively replenish inventory [31]. Trading Logic - **Global Perspective**: According to the USDA balance sheet, in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is in a weak balance. The current US weather is favorable for cotton growth, and the US good - to - excellent rate remains at a high level. There is also a lot of uncertainty in global tariffs, and both supply and demand have large adjustment spaces [32][35]. - **Domestic Perspective**: Currently, the domestic commercial inventory is at a low level, but the industrial inventory is at a high level, and the downstream yarn and grey cloth inventories are continuously accumulating. The losses of downstream textile enterprises have generally increased, and even Xinjiang yarn mills are on the verge of break - even. The willingness of the industrial chain to replenish inventory is low [35]. - **Demand Aspect**: The export demand for textiles is weak, and domestic consumption is also sluggish. Under the situation of tariff frictions, there is a lot of uncertainty in future exports. It is difficult to see variables that can significantly improve consumption in the short term [35]. - **Price Outlook**: The high inventory of domestic cotton spinning mid - and downstream finished products, combined with widespread losses, restrains the willingness of future yarn mills and grey cloth mills to replenish raw material inventory. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has increased in the new season, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strong. It is expected that the upward pressure on cotton prices will still be significant, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35].