Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the adjustment phases of the liquor industry, comparing the current phase with the 2013-2016 period, highlighting that the current adjustment is primarily driven by a decline in business demand, which is less severe than the previous round [3] - It emphasizes that the purchasing power of consumers for high-end liquor has significantly improved compared to the lowest price point in 2014, indicating a potential for market recovery [3] - The report identifies three major changes in the liquor market: increased concentration among top companies, the rise of sauce-flavored liquor, and improved market value management practices among liquor companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Adjustment Phases - The liquor industry has entered a fifth year of adjustment since 2021, with significant impacts from the 2025 policy aimed at reducing government consumption [8] - The report reviews the historical context of the 2013-2016 adjustment, noting that the current environment is different but shares some similarities [8] 2. Current Adjustment Stage - The report indicates that the liquor industry has been in a downward adjustment since the third quarter of 2024, with expectations for recovery around the second quarter of 2026 [42] - It highlights that the current adjustment is less severe than the previous one, with a maximum revenue decline of 5% and profit decline of 8% compared to the previous maximums of 15% and 30% respectively [50] 3. Market Changes Impacting Investment - The concentration of the top six liquor companies has increased significantly, with their revenue share rising from 18.3% in 2013 to 48.1% in 2024, enhancing industry self-regulation [51] - The report notes that the expansion of sauce-flavored liquor production capacity has not yet translated into revenue share, but it is expected to gain traction in the future [3] - It discusses the evolving market value management strategies among liquor companies, including increased dividend payouts and share buybacks, which are expected to enhance investor returns [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing unprecedented adjustments, with Guizhou Xijiu Group facing multiple challenges including price collapse, unclear market positioning, and intensified channel competition after separating from the Moutai system [2][4] Price Dynamics - The wholesale price of Junpin Xijiu has dropped nearly 40% over five years, from 955 RMB per bottle in June 2021 to 628 RMB as of September 28, 2025, reflecting a significant decline in brand value [3][5] - The average inventory turnover days in the liquor industry have reached 900 days, with 60% of companies experiencing price inversions, particularly in the 800 to 1500 RMB price range [3] Strategic Challenges - The strategic decision to separate from Moutai in 2022 has led to increased channel conflicts and a loss of competitive advantage, as Xijiu can no longer leverage Moutai's brand and distribution network [4][6] - Xijiu's high-end strategy has failed, as the brand lacks the necessary market foundation to support its premium positioning, leading to a blurred market identity [5][6] Management and Market Response - Under the leadership of Chairman Wang Diqiang since September 2024, Xijiu is attempting to address its challenges by engaging with key markets, but faces hurdles in brand value reconstruction, channel optimization, and product structure adjustment [6][7] - The company must avoid a simplistic management approach that forces distributors to choose between brands, which has led to resource fragmentation and decreased market efficiency [4][6] Future Outlook - Industry experts warn that Xijiu's window for adjustment is narrowing, and if it cannot restore its pricing system and market positioning by 2025, its revenue target of 23.5 billion RMB may be unattainable [7] - The case of Xijiu serves as a cautionary tale for regional liquor companies considering independence from larger brands, highlighting the risks of brand degradation and price collapse without core competitive strengths [7]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the liquor industry during the Mid-Autumn Festival did not exceed expectations, raising concerns about the feasibility of achieving annual targets, with a focus on the challenges in the fourth quarter [1] Company Performance Summaries - **Kweichow Moutai**: The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% for the year, with a high certainty of achieving this target due to its strong brand and clear strategy [2][3] - **Wuliangye**: The company is experiencing pressure to meet its target of maintaining revenue growth in line with GDP, with a 4.19% revenue increase in the first half of the year, slightly below the GDP growth of 5.3% [6][3] - **Shanxi Fenjiu**: The company is on track for steady growth, achieving a 5.35% revenue increase in the first half of the year, indicating a possibility of meeting its targets [4][6] - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The company faces pressure to achieve its goals, with a 2.7% decline in revenue in the first half of the year, prompting a cautious approach to its 2025 development strategy [10][8] - **Jinshiyuan**: The company struggles to meet its target of increasing the proportion of revenue from outside the province to 15%, with a 4.84% decline in total revenue in the first half of the year [11][13] - **Daohuaxiang**: The company aims for sales collections of at least 4.5 billion yuan, but has historically struggled to meet its performance targets, raising doubts about future achievements [14][16] - **Jiananchun**: The company has set an ambitious revenue target of 30 billion yuan by 2025, but faces challenges in achieving this due to reliance on a single product and market conditions [17][19][21] Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, facing challenges such as high channel inventory and price inversion, which are pressing issues for many companies [24] - Increased competition and market concentration have led to a "stock competition" era, where leading brands maintain strong positions, making it difficult for regional brands to compete [24] - Changing consumer demand and weakened growth momentum are impacting the industry's performance, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive [24] Strategic Adjustments - In response to these challenges, liquor companies are shifting their strategies from rapid expansion to focusing on high-quality and sustainable development [25] - Companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Jinshiyuan are adopting more cautious growth targets, emphasizing stability and long-term strategies [25]

事实上，这并非段永平首次发声支持贵州茅台。早在6月底茅台股价低迷时，他就曾鼓励贵州茅台投资 者"大家在害怕什么呢？"。此外，段永平还曾多次强调"茅台是茅台最好的背书""高档酒里，茅台最经 济实惠。" 然而，与段永平的乐观情绪形成对比的是，茅台当前面临的市场环境并不乐观。根据第三方平台"今日 酒价"数据，10月13日，2025年53度500ml飞天茅台散瓶批发价已跌至1765元，原箱价报1795元，较去年 同期下降近35%。国庆中秋双节期间，飞天茅台批发价连续多日低于1800元，旺季不旺成为行业普遍现 象。 10月13日，知名投资人段永平在社交平台上（ID：大道无形我有型）再次发声，"今天买了点茅台！"。 尽管贵州茅台（600519.SH）年内股价累计下跌5.05%，截至10月13日报收1419.2元/股，但段永平的"喊 话式加仓"再次引发市场对白酒龙头企业的关注。 从行业整体来看，白酒产量已连续第八年下滑。国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-6月规模以上白酒企业 产量为191.6万千升，同比下降5.8%。与此同时，行业集中度进一步提升。据中国酒业协会数据，2025 年上半年规模以上白酒企业数量减少至887家，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry, particularly Moutai, is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices dropping and sales declining, primarily due to changing consumer preferences among younger demographics [1][5][39] Group 1: Price and Sales Trends - Moutai's wholesale price has fallen to 1770 yuan, breaking the psychological barrier of 1800 yuan, marking the lowest price in years [1][3] - The overall white liquor industry is facing a decline, with profits of major companies down by 10.93% in the first half of 2025, and 13 out of 19 listed companies reporting revenue decreases [5][18] - In August, the monthly production of white liquor decreased by 18.2% compared to the same period last year, leading to increased inventory levels [5][18] Group 2: Challenges for Smaller Enterprises - Smaller liquor companies are struggling, with Yanghe's revenue and profit dropping over 30% in Q1, and Kuozi's revenue halving in Q2 [7][18] - More than half of liquor companies are reportedly selling at a loss, with many retailers experiencing stagnant sales [7][18] Group 3: Changing Consumer Preferences - Younger consumers, aged 18 to 30, represent a potential market of 490 million but only account for 18% of white liquor consumption among the post-95 generation [9][11] - A significant 83% of young drinkers prefer beverages with an alcohol content below 20 degrees, indicating a shift away from traditional high-alcohol white liquor [9][11] - The traditional drinking culture associated with white liquor, often linked to formal occasions and social pressures, is seen as unappealing by younger consumers [11][13] Group 4: Industry Overproduction and Distribution Issues - The white liquor industry has overproduced, with Moutai's production increasing from 39,300 tons in 2016 to 56,300 tons in 2024, leading to excess inventory [18][20] - The rise of direct sales channels and online platforms has disrupted traditional distribution methods, making it difficult for distributors to maintain profitability [20][23] Group 5: Industry Adaptation and Future Outlook - In response to market challenges, companies are developing low-alcohol products, with the low-alcohol market projected to grow significantly [27][39] - The industry is also shifting towards online sales and instant retail, with 34.9% of companies prioritizing these channels [33] - The upcoming national standards for liquor production aim to stabilize quality and adapt to changing consumer demands, potentially revitalizing the industry [31][39]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is experiencing a continued adjustment trend during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with overall sales under pressure and a year-on-year decline in performance [1] Industry Summary - The liquor industry shows a continued divergence, with leading brands performing relatively stable while overall sales are still declining year-on-year, although some regions show slight month-on-month improvement [1] - High-end liquor is witnessing a weak recovery in demand during the peak season, while mass-market products are leading in sales performance; however, the mid-high-end segment remains under pressure with significant divergence [1] - Current industry inventory is stabilizing, with some liquor companies reducing inventory marginally to alleviate operational pressure [1] Outlook - In this round of adjustment, leading liquor companies are focusing on long-term healthy development, with fundamentals stabilizing and promotional policies providing support; the industry may gradually enter a phase of positive recovery [1] - It is recommended to consider bottom-fishing strong fundamental leading companies [1]

华泰证券指出，白酒行业国庆+中秋双节延续调整趋势，双节整体仍有承压，行业延续分化，龙头相对 表现稳定，动销端看行业同比仍呈现下滑趋势，部分区域环比略有改善。分场景看，大众宴席场景有所 修复，政商务消费仍有所承压，礼赠消费有所减少。分价格带看，高端酒旺季需求弱复苏，大众价位动 销表现行业领先，次高端价位仍有一定承压且分化显著；当前行业库存企稳，部分酒企边际去化库存， 释放经营压力。展望来看，本轮调整中头部酒企均以长期健康发展为主，基本面探底企稳，叠加促销费 政策托底，行业或逐步步入良性修复阶段，建议底部布局强基本面龙头。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Chinese liquor industry, particularly the company Zhenjiu Lidou, which reported a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, reflecting a slowdown in growth amidst a tough market environment [2][3]. Industry Overview - Since 2025, the liquor industry has been grappling with price inversion and weak sales, leading to a decline in production among major liquor companies [2]. - The structural change in consumption patterns has resulted in a significant drop in government and business banquets, while family consumption has increased but at lower price points, affecting the sales of mid-to-high-end products [2][5]. - Increased competition from leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, along with changing preferences among younger consumers for lower-alcohol beverages, has further pressured traditional liquor demand [2][5]. Company Performance - Despite a contraction in revenue, Zhenjiu Lidou's fundamentals remain strong, with a slight increase in gross margin to 59% and a stable adjusted net profit margin of 24.6% [5]. - The company's core product, Zhenjiu, saw a decline in revenue, but the brand Lidou experienced a 27.79% increase in sales, raising its revenue contribution from 16.3% to 24.5% [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Zhenjiu Lidou is focusing on channel optimization and product structure improvement, opting for a conservative growth strategy to solidify its foundation for future recovery [5][11]. - The company has reduced the number of distributors by 516 but increased the number of valuable "cooperative partners" by 55, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in its distribution strategy [5]. - The exit from the "Wanshang Alliance" plan aims to strengthen relationships with distributors through stricter entry requirements and better price control, fostering a collaborative environment [5]. Product Innovation - Zhenjiu Lidou has launched a new product, "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu," priced at 600 yuan per bottle, targeting the high-end market, and introduced a premium beer, "Niu Shi," priced at 88 yuan, to attract younger consumers [7]. - The company's willingness to innovate during a downturn has garnered market recognition, positioning it as a potential leader in the industry's recovery [9]. Leadership and Vision - The strategic direction of Zhenjiu Lidou is heavily influenced by its chairman, Wu Xiangdong, whose extensive experience in the liquor industry has equipped the company with resilience and adaptability [9][11]. - The company's approach of balancing traditional strengths with innovative strategies serves as a replicable model for transformation within the industry [9][11].

Core Insights - The chairman of Xijiu Group, Wang Diqiang, has been conducting extensive market research across various provinces, indicating a strategic response to market pressures [1][5][10] - The wholesale price of Junpin Xijiu has seen a significant decline of 39.82% over the past five years, making it the largest drop among T9 brands [5][9][12] - The company aims to enhance its market positioning and sales strategies amid changing consumer preferences and increased competition following its separation from Moutai [10][15][17] Market Research and Strategy - Wang Diqiang's recent visits to key markets such as Shaanxi and Tianjin are part of a broader initiative to understand market dynamics and unify corporate strategy [1][5] - The research aims to identify issues and foster consensus within the company to elevate its marketing efforts [5][9] Price Trends and Market Position - Junpin Xijiu's wholesale price has decreased from 955 yuan per bottle in June 2021 to approximately 683 yuan currently, reflecting a significant market adjustment [5][8] - The average inventory turnover days for the white liquor industry has increased to 900 days, indicating a growing challenge in managing stock and pricing strategies [9][12] Industry Context and Challenges - The white liquor industry is experiencing a structural shift in consumer behavior, with a growing preference for lower-priced products, impacting high-end brands like Junpin Xijiu [9][10] - Following its independence from Moutai in 2022, Xijiu faces intensified competition, necessitating a reevaluation of its market strategy [12][15] Future Goals and Development - Xijiu aims to achieve an asset scale of 33 billion yuan and revenue of 23.5 billion yuan by 2025, with current figures at 26.835 billion yuan and 19.864 billion yuan respectively [17] - The company's leadership is focused on stabilizing prices and enhancing market confidence to drive growth in a challenging industry landscape [17]

Core Viewpoint - The overall white liquor industry is still in an adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of the profit forecast for Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) for 2025-2027 [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and a net profit of 575 million yuan, down 23.5% [1][2] - The expected revenue for 2025-2027 is revised to 5.978 billion, 6.590 billion, and 7.141 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 7.328 billion, 8.100 billion, and 8.786 billion yuan [1][5] - The expected net profit for the same period is adjusted to 1.073 billion, 1.294 billion, and 1.700 billion yuan, compared to previous forecasts of 1.525 billion, 1.820 billion, and 2.305 billion yuan [1][5] Sales and Volume Analysis - The company's liquor business revenue for H1 2025 was 2.497 billion yuan, with a volume decrease of 35.58% to 9,125 tons and an average price drop of 6.20% to 273,700 yuan per ton [2] - Revenue by brand showed Zhenjiu, Lidu, Xiangjiao, and Kaikouxiao at 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, and 81 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 44.80%, 9.40%, 38.73%, and 63.91% [2] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 improved by 0.28 percentage points to 59.04%, while the net profit margin increased by 4.83 percentage points to 23.02% [4] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to a higher proportion of Lidu, which has a better margin, and the release of self-owned production capacity, reducing unit costs [4] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on mid-to-high-end products and expanding banquet scene channels to drive stable growth in 2025 [5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the overall adjustment in the white liquor industry [1][5]