今年以来，白酒价格持续波动，降价成市场趋势，国家统计局最新数据为酒类市场释放更清晰信号。 根据国家统计局近日公布的数据，2025年6月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.1%。但酒类价格同比下降1.7%， 环比下降0.3%；而纵观1-6月整体表现，酒类价格更是录得2.0%的同比降幅。持续走低的价格曲线背后，是消费市 场深层逻辑的悄然转变。 | | | 环比涨跌幅 | 同比涨跌幅 | 1-6月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | 同比涨跌幅 (%) | | 居民消费价格 | | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | | 其中:城市 | | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | | 农村 | | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | | 其中:食品 | | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.9 | | 非食品 | | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | | 其中:消费品 | | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 | | 服务 | | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | | 其中:不包括食品和能源 | | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | | ...

Group 1: Management Changes in the Alcohol Industry - The alcohol industry has seen a series of high-level management changes since last year, with companies like Yanghe, China Resources Beer, and Jinzhongzi Wine experiencing shifts in leadership, indicating a strong intent from shareholders and investors to boost performance [1] - Jinzhongzi Wine's General Manager He Xiuxia has resigned, and the company is facing significant market share pressure, with 2024 revenue projected to drop to 925 million yuan, a stark contrast to over 2 billion yuan in previous cycles [5] - Yanghe has appointed Gu Yu as the new Party Secretary, replacing Zhang Liandong, who has stepped down amid a challenging period for the white liquor industry [6][7] Group 2: Trade and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce has concluded an anti-dumping investigation into EU brandy, determining that dumping margins range from 27.7% to 34.9%, leading to the imposition of anti-dumping duties starting July 5, 2025 [2][3] - A total of 34 EU brandy exporters, including well-known brands like Martell and Hennessy, can avoid these duties by adhering to price commitments approved by Chinese authorities [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Promotions - Taobao Flash Sale has initiated a new subsidy program, investing 50 billion yuan, resulting in a significant increase in orders, particularly in the alcohol sector, with some brands seeing order volumes double [4] - Kuaizi Jiao reported that its high-end "Jian" series products have not performed as expected, with sales and consumer feedback being less favorable compared to older products [10] - Xijiu has launched a promotional campaign offering buy-three-get-one-free deals on various products, indicating a strategy to boost sales through consumer incentives [11]

食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 06 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板 块底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 《5 月社零增速稳步上行，内需动力进 一步修复—行业点评报告》-2025.6.17 白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：白酒探底迎配置，关注魔芋扩容机会 6 月 30 日-7 月 4 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.6%，一级子行业排名第 19，跑输沪 深 300 约 0.9pct，子行业中肉制品（+1.2%）、白酒（+1.2%）、烘焙食品（+0.9%） 表现相对领先。前期白酒批价走弱，一方面是受到电商 618 补贴影响，另一 ...

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has concluded, leading to varied price movements in the white liquor market, with some products experiencing price increases while others continue to decline [1][2][3] Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, among 21 sampled white liquor products, 9 saw a decrease in average retail price, while 8 experienced an increase, and 4 remained unchanged [2] - Notably, high-end products like Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have seen price drops, with Moutai's average retail price falling to approximately 2304 RMB, a decrease of about 100 RMB from the previous period [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is reported at 2298.5 RMB, with a notable decline in several high-end products due to ongoing market pressures [7][10] - East Dongguan's market shows a mixed trend, with 9 products increasing in price and 5 decreasing, highlighting the volatility in high-end liquor pricing [12][13] Online vs. Offline Pricing - Online platforms, particularly instant retail channels, are showing lower prices compared to offline supermarkets, with Moutai priced at 2229 RMB online, which is about 75 RMB lower than the overall average [3][8] - The price discrepancies between online and offline channels are significant, with products like Junpin Xijiu and Qinghua Lang being sold for much lower prices online compared to their offline counterparts [3][8] Impact of Regulatory Changes - The ongoing "ban on alcohol" has significantly impacted sales, particularly in high-end segments, leading to price reductions as businesses attempt to stimulate demand [9][10] - The combination of the 618 festival and regulatory changes has created a challenging environment for liquor companies, as they navigate maintaining sales volume and pricing stability [1][17] Summary of Average Prices - The average prices for key products as of July 4th are as follows: - Moutai: 2367.62 RMB [19] - Wuliangye: 1010.27 RMB [19] - Junpin Xijiu: 833.17 RMB [20] - Qinghua Lang: 943.11 RMB [20] - Guojiao 1573: 993.42 RMB [20]

一纸"禁酒令"叠加近期大促导致的产品跌价，高端白酒近期过得有点难。 近期，南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者注意到，在政策和消费环境的变化下，高端白酒消费受 到较大影响。其中，此前颁布的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》被称为最严"禁酒令"，新规发布后 白酒行业瞬间被推上舆论风口，虽然政务消费占比已"忽略不计"，但部分商务接待场合却受到一定影 响。 与此同时，"超长待机"的618大促以及即时零售的杀入，高端白酒在持续跌价的基础上"雪上加霜"，飞 天茅台补贴后零售价2000元左右、第八代五粮液900元出头，国窖1573到手900元，青花郎及君品习酒在 700元上下……高端白酒价格带进一步下移。 不过，正如十多年前白酒从政务消费为主转型至商务消费一样，政策环境和价格变化正在促使高端白酒 进入另外一个新的转型期，从商务场景"出走"之后，高端白酒正瞄准个人小酌、聚会及家庭宴席等新的 大众消费场景。 部分商务场景受限叠加价格下跌，高端酒不再"高端"？ 基于公务接待用酒量已"忽略不计"的大背景下，因此在本次"禁酒令"颁布之时，业界认为，理论上商务 接待不受"禁酒令"影响，前景"尚算乐观"，但是在间接上，该场景的饮酒人群或 ...

2025年4月8日，贵州习酒投资控股集团有限责任公司（以下简称"习酒"）在贵阳召开2025 年一季度营销工作会，第一季度，习酒营 业收入实现了71.8亿元，同比增长10.7%。但增速却有所放缓，已然跌破2024年15%的酱酒行业平均增速。 对此，中国企业资本联盟中国区首席经济学家柏文喜指出："2022年习酒脱离茅台独立后，虽然在品牌和市场推广上有了一定的自主 性，但也失去了茅台的部分资源支持。在独立后的品牌建设和市场拓展过程中，需要时间来适应和调整，这也对其增速产生了一定 影响。" 管理团队不敢放开拳脚做事儿？ 资料显示，习酒与茅台有着深厚的历史渊源。1998年，习酒并入茅台集团，在茅台的庇佑下，习酒从一个濒临破产的地方酒厂逐渐 发展壮大。 在脱离茅台之前，习酒借助茅台的品牌背书、技术支持和渠道资源，实现了快速发展，实现了从地方小厂到百亿级白酒品牌的跨 越。 在2019 - 2022年期间，习酒业绩一路攀升，营业收入从收购前的16亿元，一路飙升至独立时突破200亿元，酱香酒市场份额也从收购 前的3.2%升至独立时的12.3%，稳稳占据酱酒行业第二的位置。 但随着习酒的发展，其上市的诉求愈发强烈。而同一集团不能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 618 shopping festival has led to significant price reductions in the Chinese liquor market, particularly for high-end baijiu brands, as manufacturers aim to alleviate inventory pressure during a seasonal consumption lull [1][22]. Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 sampled baijiu products saw a decline in average retail prices, with notable drops in high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][2]. - The average retail price of Moutai in Guangzhou is approximately 2404 RMB, down over 100 RMB from the previous period [2]. - In Shenzhen, most products remained stable, but Moutai was largely unavailable, leading to price fluctuations [6][7]. - In Dongguan, Moutai's price increased significantly due to supply instability, rising from 2299 RMB to 2800 RMB [11][12]. Price Changes by Product - High-end products like the Eighth Generation Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 also experienced price drops, with Guojiao 1573 decreasing from 1075 RMB to 1004 RMB [12][13]. - The average price of the high-end product Junpin Xijiu fell to around 845 RMB in Guangzhou, with significant reductions noted across various retail channels [2][3]. - The price of Qinghualang in Dongguan dropped from 1055 RMB to 965 RMB, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in the market [12][13]. E-commerce Impact - E-commerce platforms have seen more pronounced price reductions, with many baijiu brands offering discounts and promotional activities during the 618 festival [16][20]. - On Tmall, the price of Hong Xifeng dropped from 1157 RMB to 1056 RMB, while Guojiao 1573 and Gujing Gongjiu also saw minor declines [19]. - The overall sales volume for liquor on Tmall surged by 72% year-on-year during the promotional period, indicating a positive response to lower prices [19][22]. Market Dynamics - The current price declines are attributed to a structural transformation in the baijiu industry, exacerbated by seasonal consumption patterns and increased competition from online channels [22]. - The price index for national baijiu showed a slight decrease of 0.35% in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in maintaining price stability amid aggressive promotional strategies [22]. - Manufacturers are facing pressure to manage inventory while navigating the complexities of pricing strategies in a competitive market environment [22].

Core Viewpoint - The price of certain white liquor products in the Southwest region has seen a rebound during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is expected to decline due to the upcoming "618" shopping festival and ongoing "billion-dollar subsidies" [2][9]. Price Trends - The average market price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) rose to 2606.8 RMB per bottle on May 31, up 20 RMB from 2586.8 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average market price of the eighth generation Wuliangye (52 degrees/500ml) increased to 997.69 RMB per bottle, compared to 994.35 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average price of Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees/500ml) also experienced an increase [3]. Inventory Levels - The fluctuation in white liquor prices is closely related to inventory levels, with recent reports indicating a reduction in high inventory situations for several brands [3][4]. - Wuliangye reported that some terminal inventories are running at zero, while Luzhou Laojiao stated that their inventory situation is currently safe and controllable [4]. Market Dynamics - The overall sales of premium liquor are slowing down, with a notable decline in demand for business and corporate group purchases [7]. - Despite the holiday season, the overall sales performance remains subdued, with many companies adjusting their revenue growth targets to align with macroeconomic indicators [7][8]. E-commerce Impact - The upcoming "618" e-commerce festival is expected to exert further pressure on retail prices, despite a slight price increase for high-end liquors during the Dragon Boat Festival [9]. - Analysts predict that while online sales may see growth during the "618" event, profit margins will be squeezed due to price reductions and high inventory levels among offline distributors [9].

随着端午假期临近，部分白酒价格却持续走低。 近日，南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者进行了第四十六期《湾区酒价》数据统计，从统计结果 来看，广州、深圳和东莞三地，大部分产品价格相比上一期持续走低，具体原因来看，其一是部分产品 渠道出现产品打折出售，其二是有的产品因本身销售渠道少，出现打折之后导致了零售均价有较大波 动。 另外，上期课题组推出的《西南酒价》，所报出的零售均价获得了较大关注。其中四川作为白酒产地， 大湾区作为酒水消费高地，这两个地区的酒水价格具有哪些方面的差异？根据统计对比后，课题组发 现，湾区的零售均价显著高于四川。 广州：端午临近，超三分之二产品价格持续下跌 虽然时间临近端午假期，但是在本期酒价统计中，广州有超过三分之二的产品价格对比上期出现下跌， 跌价幅度从数元到几十元不等。 其中，飞天茅台酒零售均价进一步下探，本期录得价格为2579.73元/瓶，受调研的部分终端该产品零售 价报出了2300元/瓶左右的价格，不过诸如永旺与华润ole，产品摆柜价依然高企，分别为2799元/瓶和 2999元/瓶，这一定程度拉高了飞天茅台的均价表现。 而在高端、次高端产品方面，古井贡酒的古20零售均价持续出现下 ...

白酒调整周期下，即便五一节当前，白酒市场表现仍不算如意。 市场价格端来看，即使酒企们纷纷暂停供货或严格配额管控，但市场依旧表现疲软。《西南酒价》第十 二期数据显示，君品习酒、摘要、珍酒三十、智慧舍得等14款拳头产品价格全线下跌，甚至有白酒品牌 价格大幅下滑。 宴席端来看，此前，不少酒企对五一假期抱有高期待：认为今年是农俗意义上的"双春年"，相较于去年 的婚宴市场，预计今年该市场回升幅度较大。五一假期作为传统意义上的结婚小高峰，不少酒企在五一 节前就推出相应的婚宴政策，但目前来看仍不算乐观。有酒商表示，往年五一假期前婚宴订单开始激 增，但是今年截至目前订单数量依旧很少。 宴席端疲软、白酒上市公司业绩集体失速、价格严重倒挂甚至"批零倒挂"、渠道库存高企、酒业渠道商 业绩断崖式下滑等问题何解？有酒企相关分析认为，市场竞争将步入白热化阶段， 行业呈现年轻化、 低度化、健康化等发展趋势，只有不断创新的企业，才能抢抓发展机遇。 摘要等多款产品价格全线下跌，市场出现"批零倒挂"现象 《西南酒价》第十二期数据显示，相较于上一期数据，君品习酒、摘要、珍酒三十、智慧舍得等14款拳 头产品价格全线下跌，其中，君品习酒、摘要等产品跌 ...