Core Viewpoint - The new real estate policies in Beijing, effective from August 9, aim to stabilize the housing market and boost consumer confidence, leading to increased activity in the new housing sector while the second-hand market remains relatively subdued [1][2][6]. Market Response - The new policies have resulted in a noticeable increase in the activity of the new housing market, with a reported 31% week-on-week increase in online inquiries and a 24.4% rise in new housing consultations compared to the first ten days of the month [3][4]. - In the first week following the policy implementation, the number of visits to new housing projects increased by nearly 20%, particularly benefiting high-end improvement-type projects [3][4]. Second-hand Market Performance - The second-hand housing market has shown a more muted response, with 3,123 transactions recorded from August 9 to August 15, which is flat compared to the same period last year but represents a 10.8% increase from the previous week [4][6]. - Current demand in the second-hand market is primarily driven by first-time buyers and those looking to sell and buy simultaneously, with limited interest from buyers seeking multiple properties [4]. National Context - Nationwide, the real estate market is still in a phase of stabilization, with new residential sales area down 4.0% year-on-year for the first seven months of the year [6]. - The central and local governments have been implementing various "stabilize the housing market" policies, including easing purchase restrictions and optimizing housing fund policies to stimulate housing consumption [6][7]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that future policy adjustments may focus on further relaxing restrictions while improving the housing supply system, particularly in areas outside the city center [7]. - The emphasis on urban renewal and the effective implementation of existing policies are expected to drive demand and stabilize market expectations in the coming months [7].

本报记者 张芗逸 北京楼市新政已落地满一周。 8月8日，北京市住房和城乡建设委员会（以下简称"北京市住建委"）、北京住房公积金管理中心联合印发《关于进一步优 化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》，明确一系列楼市新政，自8月9日起施行。 过去一周，《证券日报》记者持续关注北京楼市动向，通过密集走访了解到，新政出台首周市场整体运行平稳，购房者看 房的活跃度有所提升，但成交相对谨慎，市场观望情绪仍然浓厚。 整体来看，政策对新房市场带动作用较为明显，二手房市场相对较为温和。 全方位提振住房消费 新政出台后，北京房地产市场整体活跃度有所提升。从安居客线上数据来看，新增用户15天至30天返回率相比新政前有 5%以上的增加。安居客线上用户通过电话咨询数量近一周环比增长31%，新房咨询量日均水平与本月前10天相比提高24.4%， 与7月份相比提高33.1%，与去年8月份相比提高7.2%。 58安居客研究院院长张波在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，线上数据的活跃说明新政本身在一定程度上激发了潜在购 房者对房源的持续关注，用户从"一次性浏览"转向"多次主动获取信息"。购房者活跃度提升，积极对比区域、户型、价格等信 息，并关注公积金组 ...

Group 1 - Recent adjustments to housing provident fund policies have been made across multiple regions in China to enhance housing security and support for residents [1][3] - Hainan Province has initiated a program to acquire existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing and to improve living conditions in urban villages and dilapidated areas [1] - Suzhou has expanded the use of housing provident funds, allowing contributors to withdraw funds annually for property management fees, thereby alleviating housing-related financial burdens [3] Group 2 - Beijing has implemented measures to increase support for housing provident funds, including optimizing first home recognition standards and increasing loan limits for second homes [3] - In the first half of the year, nearly 150 adjustments to housing provident fund policies were recorded nationwide, focusing on increasing loan limits, optimizing housing unit recognition, and supporting down payment withdrawals [3] - The policy adjustments primarily target the core needs of first-time homebuyers and those upgrading their housing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy issued by Hainan Province aims to optimize and adjust real estate control measures, focusing on revitalizing existing housing stock, enhancing financial support, meeting housing needs for talent, and streamlining approval processes [1][2][3] Group 1: Revitalizing Existing Housing Stock - The policy emphasizes the acquisition of existing residential properties for use as affordable housing, urban village redevelopment, and relocation housing for residents affected by expropriation [1] - It specifies that the main funding sources for acquiring existing properties will include the appreciation of housing provident fund and re-loan for affordable housing, with flexible standards for property area when used for rental housing [1][2] Group 2: Revitalizing Commercial Properties - The policy supports the transformation of commercial land into residential and rental housing, facilitating the conversion of eligible commercial properties into rental housing and affordable housing [2] - This initiative is expected to better activate existing commercial projects and lead to more detailed supporting policies in the future [2] Group 3: Financial and Tax Support - The policy includes measures to cancel the classification of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, and supports home purchases for families with multiple children [2] - It also aims to lower housing costs and stimulate diverse new demands through financial and tax incentives [3] Group 4: Meeting Housing Needs for Talent - The policy allows talent introduced to the region to continue applying for special housing purchase subsidies provided by various cities and counties [2] Group 5: Streamlining Approval Processes - The policy proposes to optimize the sales timeline for existing properties, aiming to enhance the efficiency of the approval process [2]

房地产市场形势不甚明朗，广州国企开始出招"稳楼市"。 近日，珠实地产宣布启动"保价"措施，覆盖广州区域7个在售楼盘，承诺"保价到年底，买贵补差价"。 具体保价措施是，承诺保价期限持续至2025年12月31日，买贵可申请差额补偿（最高20万元物管费）。 这是继越秀地产之后，广州又一家宣布"保价卖房"的国企。珠实地产在回应媒体时表示，此举是助力稳 市场、稳预期，也是响应广州市国资国企"拼经济"工作会议的指引，破解民生痛点，助力放心安家。 今年"小阳春"之后，广州楼市活跃度有所下降，市场存在观望情绪。 在全国房地产政策保持稳定的当下，如何提振购房者的信心是稳定楼市的关键因素之一。通过"保价卖 房"为购房者服下定心丸，是房企促进销售的招数。房地产市场仍在调整期，由当地国企带头承诺"保 价"，也彰显了国企的担当以及助力稳定楼市的决心。 今年6月，越秀地产广州区域再度发布相关的"保价卖房"措施。具体操作细则是，越秀地产位于天河和 海珠的越秀观樾、琶洲南TOD、琶洲樾华樾、越秀天河和樾府等4个楼盘，在6月25日至6月30日期间成 交的房源可"保价"到今年年底。在保价期间，如有材料证实"买贵"，客户将有机会获得差额补偿。 深 ...

其中，在激励住房消费方面提出，加大金融服务力度，提高公积金贷款额度，扩大覆盖范围至灵活就业 人员，支持异地公积金购房；加大购房补贴力度，进一步吸引外地居民来长沙县安家，给予教师、医务 人员、产业工人、新居民等购房财政补贴，给予优秀房地产营销队伍"金牌顾问"奖励；加大政策支持力 度，购房人凭不动产预告登记(含非住宅)，统筹安排落户、入学等。 人民财讯8月13日电，8月13日，湖南省长沙县住建局、自然资源局、财政局三部门联合印发《关于推动 长沙县房地产市场平稳健康发展的若干措施》，从激励住房消费、提振投资信心、强化要素保障三方面 提出十条措施。 ...

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided a framework for economic policies for the second half of the year and the next five years, focusing on the impacts on the real estate market, stock market, and commodity prices [1] - The absence of explicit mentions of "real estate" in the meeting's communiqué suggests a nuanced approach to housing market stability, indicating that while the government has not abandoned the goal of stabilizing housing prices, the current phase of the real estate cycle complicates policy implementation [5] - The stock market has shown a significant rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 30% since last year, and the meeting emphasized the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets [7] Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - The meeting did not explicitly mention "timely interest rate cuts," which raises questions about the likelihood of further monetary easing; however, the context of improving economic indicators suggests that aggressive monetary policy may not be necessary at this time [3] - The shift from a "prudent" to a "moderately accommodative" monetary policy indicates a potential for interest rate cuts to lower financing costs, especially if external economic pressures increase [3] Commodity Prices and Supply Chain Dynamics - Recent rebounds in commodity prices are contingent on supply-demand dynamics, and the government's focus on regulating competition aims to prevent disorderly price increases without necessarily expanding demand [10] - The meeting highlighted the need for capacity governance in key industries, including steel and automotive, to optimize supply and eliminate excess capacity, which could influence commodity price trends [10][11] Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery - The meeting underscored the importance of fiscal policy in driving economic recovery, with a noted increase in macro leverage ratios, particularly in government sectors, indicating a reliance on government spending to stabilize the economy [14] - The government's capacity for further fiscal expansion remains significant compared to other economies, suggesting that proactive fiscal measures will be essential in countering economic contraction and boosting confidence [14]

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a collective decline in transaction volumes in July, with Shanghai seeing a drop exceeding 40% in new home sales [1][6][9] - Factors contributing to this downturn include extreme heat, typhoon impacts, the fading effects of previous policies, and a stalemate in price expectations between buyers and sellers [1][9] - Experts suggest that a recovery in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes may not occur until September [1][10] Second-hand Housing Market - In Beijing, second-hand home transactions fell to 12,784 units in July, a 15.6% decrease from June and 17.9% lower than the same month in 2024 [3] - Shanghai's second-hand home transactions dropped to 19,337 units, a 7% decrease from June and a 5% decline year-on-year [4] - Guangzhou reported 8,962 second-hand home transactions, down 9.39% from June and 10.68% year-on-year [4] - Shenzhen was an exception, with a 3.4% increase in second-hand home transactions, totaling 4,656 units [4] New Housing Market - The new housing market saw even more significant declines, with Shanghai's new home sales dropping by 40.6% in July, totaling 341,000 square meters [6] - Guangzhou's new home transactions fell by 25% to 4,874 units, with a 46.9% decrease in new supply [6] - Shenzhen's new home sales decreased by 24.1%, with a total of 1,441 units sold [7] Market Analysis - July is traditionally a slow month for real estate, compounded this year by extreme weather and a lack of strong policy support [9] - The market is currently characterized by a price standoff between buyers and sellers, leading to reduced transaction activity [3][9] - Despite the downturn, the overall transaction volumes remain above critical thresholds, indicating some resilience in the market [10] - Future market activity is expected to depend on the introduction of new policies and the resolution of current price expectations [12]

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided a framework for economic development over the next five years and set the stage for the second half of 2023's economic policies [1] - The absence of explicit mentions of "real estate" in the recent meeting indicates a shift in focus, although the need to stabilize the housing market remains critical [3] - The meeting emphasized maintaining liquidity and promoting a decline in comprehensive financing costs, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts in the future [2] Stock Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded over 30% since last year, indicating a positive trend in the stock market, which the meeting aims to consolidate [4][5] - The effectiveness of measures taken by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. and other entities in stabilizing the stock market has been acknowledged, but further support from fundamental economic conditions is necessary for continued growth [5] Commodity Prices and Supply Chain Management - Recent rebounds in commodity prices are contingent on supply-demand dynamics, with the government focusing on regulating excessive competition rather than merely raising prices [6][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for capacity management in key industries, including photovoltaic, cement, and automotive sectors, to ensure sustainable growth [6] Macro Policy Adjustments - The macroeconomic policy has shifted towards increased investment in consumer spending and improving living standards, with a notable rise in government leverage [8] - The government's ability to implement counter-cyclical policies is crucial for boosting confidence and stimulating demand in the face of economic contraction [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for policy support to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% after a 5.3% growth in the first half of the year [1][5]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target [5][7]. - The GDP deflator index in Q2 fell by 1.2%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of negative growth, leading to a nominal GDP growth of only 3.9% [5][8]. - The growth was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy [7][8]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% in the first half, with significant growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and furniture [8][11]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8%, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [11][19]. - Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [11][19]. Export Dynamics - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [15][19]. - The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [15][19]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending and manufacturing investment in the second half [19][20]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on retail sales is expected to diminish in the latter half of the year due to lower funding and higher base effects from last year [19][20]. - Real estate sales and prices are showing signs of weakness, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% in the first half [23][24]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, given the strong economic foundation laid in the first half [27][28]. - Potential policy directions include optimizing existing programs like the "trade-in" initiative and addressing restrictions on consumer spending [29][30]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key area of focus, with ongoing projects and new financing tools being introduced to support technology and consumption [30][31]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates [34][35]. - The article suggests that the central bank may take a cautious approach to monetary easing, focusing on maintaining stability in the currency exchange rate [35][36]. Structural Issues - The article highlights that the main challenges facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output-related, emphasizing the need for a focus on domestic and international circulation [26][38].